One could say that the Cubs are in an uncomfortable position. First place after three games. The team just won their first opening series in four years. The optimism must be tempered by realism.
The Cubs play their next 19 games against teams with winning 2012 records. The next opponent, the Braves, have been penciled in as a wild card team this season.
But this first 22 game stretch (13.5% of the season) will tell you how well the Cubs are going to be this season. Good. Average. Below Average. Bad. Really Bad.
Manager Dale Sveum talked about the need for his club to have "a fast start" to the season. The front office also wants a winning April in order to sell tickets and keep up fan interest after a 100 loss season.
But from a pure statistical standpoint, the first 22 games count "the same" as as other games in the schedule.
But there is an inherit axiom in athletics. Former players will tell you that getting off to a fast start helps with individual confidence and team chemistry. In some respects, baseball is not as high energy as a hockey or basketball game where all the teammates are in fluid motion. Baseball is an individual on individual game (throw and catch, pitching and hitting). Some people call the idea of team chemistry hog wash. Some historians will reference the bad chemistry of some teams, where players hated each other or the manager (like the Yankees), led to championship seasons.
We can objectively see when a player loses his confidence. A batter swings wildly at pitches way out of the strike zone. A pitcher, like Carlos Marmol, cannot locate his slider or has no confidence that his fastball will not be a flat, fat home run offering to the batter. There is a real mental component to professional sports.
For the Cubs, a fast start may be important for a more long term reason. The Cubs are hoping that the core young players (Castro, Rizzo, Samardzija, Barney, Castillo) will continue to improve to set the foundation for a competitive team by 2015. However, young players follow the example set by the clubhouse veterans. If year after year a team loses, then losing becomes an acceptable way of life in the locker room. It is not like the players don't want to win; but there are no ramifications to them personally (since they are "the future") because of the team losses. The Cubs are nearing a tipping point with their young core players; they need to quickly learn how to win at the major league level.
And winning at the team level is complex. Throughout their lives, professional players were probably the best player on their youth team. They have been told by parents, family and friends how great they were at their position. They would garner more accolades for personal accomplishments (stats) because that is how scouts compare players. As a result, most players are quite self-centered about how they go about playing the game. Winning at a team level needs a certain amount of re-education. Teams that win together learn to sacrifice individual stats for the greater good, like bunting a base runner over, or taking an extra base on a hit to the outfield even though it will physically drain you. Teams without a basic knowledge and application of the proper way to play the game as a team are doomed for failure. We call it "baseball intelligence." Does a player have the baseball IQ to succeed? Can he predict what will happen, know the situation, know how to instinctively react, and know his role?
If the Cubs lose 3 of 5 game sets in this next stretch, then it would confirm that the 2013 Cubs would be on the same path as last season, at a .409 winning percentage (or 66 win pace).
