There has been a great range on how many wins the Cubs will have this season. The predictions began in the winter when the Cubs began acquiring starting pitchers and journeymen to the start of opening day. The range is wide: from 52 wins to 78. This is the gulf of expectations between various levels of Cub fans.
If we just take the opening day roster as the starting point, we find that the position players collectively have a 12.7 WAR (wins above replacement). For the pitching staff, they have a collective 8.5 WAR (for pitching alone).
The team projected WAR would be 21.2 if the players did as well as they did last season. Since WAR basically postulates that a AAA team would win 32 percent of the games, or 51.84 wins per season, the Cubs 21.2 projected WAR would equate to 73.04 wins.
The 2012 Cubs were 61-101 (.376 winning percentage).
The 2013 Cubs WAR record is 73-89 (.450 winning percentage).
That is a 12 game improvement from last season. That means this year's Cubs would be 19.7 percent better. How could that be?
WAR is a comparison tool. It is not an absolute indicator or predictor.
This huge increase in competitive play is for a team that lost twenty percentage of its rotation (Baker and Garza) and its starting third baseman (Stewart) may be a statistical mirage. The Cubs bench is filled with .200 hitters, with two of them now starting at third and second base. The bullpen is shaky with Marmol as the closer. Rondon as another Rule 5 flyer is probably over matched from jumping from AA pitching to the majors. The 2013 Cubs look no different than the 2012 club. And as such, one is more likely to see the Cubs repeating a 100 loss season than improving by a dozen victories.
