The Cubs have the second overall pick in the draft. The Astros have the first selection.
ESPN's Keith Law believes that Stanford's Mark Appel and Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray are the top two pitchers in this year's draft. The Astros attempted to negotiate with Appel before the 2012 draft, but Appel wanted above slot bonus money. Instead, the Astros used the top pick to draft a high school player then overspend on their next two selections, in effect, giving the Astros three first round talents for the price of one.
The Cubs Theo Epstein was used to overspending without any caps when he was in Boston. That franchise believed that money can pave over mistakes. But the fans are looking for results not talk. Drafting starting pitchers is like drafting touted quarterbacks in the NFL: you never can tell. The Cubs drafted Hayden Simpson a few years ago with their top pick, and now Simpson is not in baseball. He did not pitch at all last season. He was an overreach and a bust.
So many columnists believe that Appel is the best player available, it makes one to pause. As a team, are you going to overpay for a pitcher or try to get more balance in the early rounds? Appel is out of options as he cannot go back to college. In theory he could play internationally, but the money and programs would not be the same as American baseball. He could sit out a year then try to sign with another club, but that would be a diva move that most teams would want to avoid. However, there was one report that Appel still has some "leverage" in that any team that drafts him must have a deal in place otherwise they can't "over slot" their following selections because the penalty for overspending is losing valuable picks next year. But logically, a team can tell any first round draft choice "this is what we are paying, take it or leave it." If the player goes unsigned, the team gets a compensation pick next year. So it would appear Appel will have little leverage.
But in pro sports, money equals respect and some team will try to calm the waters and give him some "respect" and overslot him. But that does not mean Appel will be happy.
So if Houston passes on Appel, then he falls to the Cubs. And this is where it gets interesting. Though the Cubs are not as bad as the Astros, they are close. Epstein has been bellowing that he inherited a minor league system devoid of talent. He has no pitching prospects in the high minors. So scouts believe the Cubs must pick the best available starter and pray for Strasburg type immediate returns.
That would be if the Cubs want to win now. But the Cubs don't want to win now. The Cubs want to pare back the payroll to help pay for the Wrigley Field entertainment complex. The projection for having a competitive, play-off caliber team has now moved out to 2015 and beyond.
It was reported that the Cubs had their short list of players whittled down to six. The consensus speculation is Appel, Gray, college LHP Sean Manaea, high school outfielders, Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows. The sixth could be collegiate pitching prospect Ryne Stanek, or San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant.
The Cubs have enough new outfielders in their system for now to draft a high school player. As we posted before, Bryant has the best power bat in the draft. He also would fill an immediate critical need at third base. The other potential third base first round talent is North Carolina's Colin Moran, who has the most fluid, natural swing in the draft according to some scouting services.
My call is that the Cubs draft Bryant to address the needs at third and taking a power bat. The Cubs drafted 17 pitchers in last year's draft so if you trust Epstein and Hoyer's talent evaluation judgment, then other critical areas need to be addressed now. Also, for many scouts, projecting position players is easier than projecting pitchers since there are more variables that can go wrong with a pitching prospect.
ESPN's Keith Law believes that Stanford's Mark Appel and Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray are the top two pitchers in this year's draft. The Astros attempted to negotiate with Appel before the 2012 draft, but Appel wanted above slot bonus money. Instead, the Astros used the top pick to draft a high school player then overspend on their next two selections, in effect, giving the Astros three first round talents for the price of one.
The Cubs Theo Epstein was used to overspending without any caps when he was in Boston. That franchise believed that money can pave over mistakes. But the fans are looking for results not talk. Drafting starting pitchers is like drafting touted quarterbacks in the NFL: you never can tell. The Cubs drafted Hayden Simpson a few years ago with their top pick, and now Simpson is not in baseball. He did not pitch at all last season. He was an overreach and a bust.
So many columnists believe that Appel is the best player available, it makes one to pause. As a team, are you going to overpay for a pitcher or try to get more balance in the early rounds? Appel is out of options as he cannot go back to college. In theory he could play internationally, but the money and programs would not be the same as American baseball. He could sit out a year then try to sign with another club, but that would be a diva move that most teams would want to avoid. However, there was one report that Appel still has some "leverage" in that any team that drafts him must have a deal in place otherwise they can't "over slot" their following selections because the penalty for overspending is losing valuable picks next year. But logically, a team can tell any first round draft choice "this is what we are paying, take it or leave it." If the player goes unsigned, the team gets a compensation pick next year. So it would appear Appel will have little leverage.
But in pro sports, money equals respect and some team will try to calm the waters and give him some "respect" and overslot him. But that does not mean Appel will be happy.
So if Houston passes on Appel, then he falls to the Cubs. And this is where it gets interesting. Though the Cubs are not as bad as the Astros, they are close. Epstein has been bellowing that he inherited a minor league system devoid of talent. He has no pitching prospects in the high minors. So scouts believe the Cubs must pick the best available starter and pray for Strasburg type immediate returns.
That would be if the Cubs want to win now. But the Cubs don't want to win now. The Cubs want to pare back the payroll to help pay for the Wrigley Field entertainment complex. The projection for having a competitive, play-off caliber team has now moved out to 2015 and beyond.
It was reported that the Cubs had their short list of players whittled down to six. The consensus speculation is Appel, Gray, college LHP Sean Manaea, high school outfielders, Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows. The sixth could be collegiate pitching prospect Ryne Stanek, or San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant.
The Cubs have enough new outfielders in their system for now to draft a high school player. As we posted before, Bryant has the best power bat in the draft. He also would fill an immediate critical need at third base. The other potential third base first round talent is North Carolina's Colin Moran, who has the most fluid, natural swing in the draft according to some scouting services.
My call is that the Cubs draft Bryant to address the needs at third and taking a power bat. The Cubs drafted 17 pitchers in last year's draft so if you trust Epstein and Hoyer's talent evaluation judgment, then other critical areas need to be addressed now. Also, for many scouts, projecting position players is easier than projecting pitchers since there are more variables that can go wrong with a pitching prospect.
