The baseball columnists mock drafts have a near unanimous grouping for the top three picks in the June MLB draft: pitchers Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray and third baseman Kris Bryant.
The Rockies pick third. Reports have them focusing in on Bryant. Which is ironic, since I have been pushing for the Cubs to replace Ian Stewart with Bryant for some time now.
Cubs GM Hoyer has recently stated that the team is now going to follow the Nationals blueprint. Many people believe that means drafting the best ace possible (Strasburg) and play him right away.
However, the Nats also selected a position player (Harper) who has not been too bad.
Pitchers are more boom or bust type selections than position players. Position players have a longer body of work and less mechanical movements at the plate to worry about. The Cubs drafted 17 pitchers last year, but only one (Pierce Johnson) gets some fair comments in this year's minor league reports.
Cubs President Epstein has whined that baseball has changed the rules after he started his rebuilding plan. He can no longer have an unlimited budget to sign international free agents. He has a strict slotted draft budget with serious financial and pick penalties. Further, the free agent market has changed significantly with the qualifying offer player who would cost a team a first round draft choice in compensation. The Cubs have failed to adapt to these rules changes to improve their minor league system. On the other end, the Blue Jays have ramped up their AAA team by aggressively using the waiver wire to pick talent off other team rosters.
It comes down to trust. Do you trust a high mileage college pitcher who is looking for "over-slot" compensation more than a potential ten year starter in your infield?
Bryant is the best power bat in the draft. He is also an average third baseman with a plus arm. He could be moved to first or left field for some team (like the Rockies who have a very good, 22 year old third baseman in Nolan Arenado). Bryant will be gone with the third pick.
My gut feeling is that Appel could be the next Mark Prior. He has the stuff of an ace, but he will have an expensive chip on his shoulder after not signing last season (he dropped from first pick to eighth because of signability issues). Many scouts believe Gray as better mechanics, but again the world said the same thing about Prior and Kerry Wood.
Then you have to project ahead. The free agent market is going to be thin in the next few years. The top free agents are going to get qualifying offers of $14 million. That is the floor for their own valuation which is probably too high for clubs to meet, which further restricts the market. Teams will continue to avoid qualifying offers for their own free agents if they have younger, cheaper talent in their system.
So if the Cubs plan was to be competitive by 2016, who projects to be the "core" group of players?
Position players: Castro, Rizzo
Pitchers: E. Jackson, T. Wood, Russell
So the Cubs are still 20 players short with two off-seasons to go. It is a long shot to have even four players in the current system to be ready to play in 2016: Soler, Baez, Watkins and Pierce. Even in the best case, the Cubs are still 16 players short. A lot of money is going to be coming off the books soon, so the possibility that the Cubs will sign second tier free agents to fill out their roster is probable. But there is a drought in available third base talent. The Cubs have no viable candidate in the minors (Josh Vitters possibly gets one more chance; Christian Villaneuva is struggling in minors).
There is a basic philosophical question: do you believe it is better to take the best position player on your board first, or take the best available player no matter the position?
From a raw number sense:
A starting position player will play 150 games a season or 1500 for a decade career.
A starting pitcher will throw 33 games a season or 330 games for a decade career.
One could argue that a star position player is worth five times more than a starting pitcher.
Tempering the discussion is the fact that Epstein-Hoyer have yet to develop for the Cubs a starting quality pitcher. We don't know if they have the ability to hire the right people or supervise in such a way as to develop an entire staff of quality arms.
That is why Bryant still makes the most sense for the Cubs if he is available at the #2 pick.
