As any sports draft approaches, rumors and discussions of whose "draft stock" is rising is reported in the sports pages (or in the world of modern technology, tweets).
UNC third baseman Colin Moran is moving up draft boards and some say he might even go first overall to the Astros, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. However, Jonathan Gray, Mark Appel, and Kris Bryant are rated as the top three players in the draft by most scouting organizations.
If the Astros believe Moran is a more overall polished third baseman (offense and defense) than Bryant, and possibly cheaper from a signing bonus perspective, that would give the Cubs the best power hitter in the draft in Bryant. The Astros last season picked a high schooler with the first selection and unpaid the slot value in order conserve the draft budget to sign two other selections above their slot values. It gave them three signable high quality first round picks.
The word out of Iowa is that Josh Vitters is back on the DL. But the same reports indicate that Ian Stewart is still languishing on the bench. The Iowa Cubs have been playing utility infielders at third over Stewart. This means that the Cubs have basically given up on Stewart. He is no longer in the major league plans. It means that the Cubs are even more desperate to solve their third base sink hole.
It was unthinkable two weeks ago that two third basemen could be drafted 1-2, ahead of star pitchers Appel and Gray. As indicated in earlier posts, most scouts and draft rooms believe that drafting position players is less risk than drafting power pitchers. However, finding an ace starter is extremely hard to do so that is why the lure of finding the next Verlander, Strasburg, Kershaw or Darvish is so appealing to general managers.
There is no fast rule that a "can't miss" label on a draft choice will make the major league and have an excellent career, but both Bryant and Moran project to major league talent. Either could anchor third base for a team for a decade. When was the last time the Cubs had a fixture at third base? Aramis Ramirez? Bill Madlock? Ron Santo?!
So my view continues to be that the Cubs should select a third baseman with the #2 pick in this June's draft. If Moran is taken by the Astros, the Cubs should take Bryant. If Bryant is taken by the Astros, then the Cubs should pick Moran. If the Astros pick someone else, the Cubs should flip a coin between Bryant and Moran (I still favor Bryant for the power stats which is also lacking in the Cub lineup).
UPDATE: ESPN's Keith Law's latest mock draft has Moran being picked by the Astros #1. Law doesn't think Houston will make a formal decision on the pick until Thursday, but he reports that the buzz within the industry has them leaning towards Moran. Law goes on to explain the Astro's business draft model. Because Moran is on most draft boards going at around the No. 5 slot (worth $3.8 million) the Astros could offer Moran $4 million (more than he would have made at No. 5) and then use the $3 million in first slot savings to sign other picks later on in the first few rounds (who may have had signability issues) by overpaying their next slot values at #40 and #76.
Law also states that if the Astros took a pitcher like Gray, Houston wouldn't pocket much savings for their next few picks. Law states that the Astros are not interested in either Appel, or top rated high school outfielder Clint Frazier.
SECOND UPDATE:
Sports Illustrated posts this afternoon its latest mock draft by Dave Perkin, whose resume contains work as a professional baseball scout or the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers and Baseball America.
Perkin has Bryant going #1 to the Astros, followed by Gray to the Cubs, Appel to the Rockies and then Frazier to the Twins.
Perkin is using his knowledge and experience to pick his board while Law uses his experience and talking with teams and scouts to project who will be selected in the draft. There may be misinformation to conceal what is actually happening, either through team representatives (to hide targets) or by agents (trying to pump up their clients demand). What is emerging is that the Astros probably will not select a pitcher with the first pick.
