The cornerstone of the New Cubs Way is to overspend. It is like a person who earns one dollar but then has an uncontrollable urge to immediately spend two dollars.
The Cubs signed another young player to a long term extension. Several reports state that Anthony Rizzo will receive a $41 million extension covering 2013-2019 with two club options. The total value of the contract is approximately $70 million. The two options for 2020 and 2021 are for $14.5 million each.
This is the second major long term commitment made by the Cubs. Last season, the Cubs signed Starlin Castro is a seven year deal that locks him up through 2019. That deal was worth $60.5 million with a $16 million club option in 2020. Castro made the jump from the minimum salary to $5 million this year.
Is Rizzo worth an average of $6.83 million per year?
When Castro got his pay day, he had played in 445 games. He had hit 27 HR, 185 RBI, 57 SB and .296 BA in three seasons. He had a career 8.0 WAR.
Rizzo only has 173 career games. He has hit 25 HR, 85 RBI, .253 BA, 9 SB and a career 3.2 WAR.
Castro had a better track record before his extension. But in the year after, Castro's production has dropped to 3 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB, .272 BA in 37 games of 2013. It is not surprising that often young players who get early big money extensions have their performance drop off. It is human nature. They have been rewarded for a massive increase in future performance, but there is no incentive to continue to hone one's skills. Castro has not improved his game; some would say his defense continues to be troublesome.
The Cubs are trying to play the Tampa Bay game of signing their young stars to long term contracts. Except, that is still a minority view point. These extensions are guaranteed and more costly than the stair step contract increases that arbitration grants players.
Fans can debate whether this is a good move to sign a young player without a full season of major league experience to a deal that locks him up to 2020. Other factors in the decision could be the marketing fingerprint of having a program cover boy year after year. But again, the counterbalance is a simple two words: Micah Hoffpauir. He had an All-Star first half in 2009, and was out of the majors less than a year later.
But this really signals that there will be no competition for Rizzo at first base. That means the Cubs best power hitter, Dan Vogelbach (in Class A ball) should start playing LF if the front office has any plans for him.
