PLEADING IN THE FIFTH

It was a strange, wild and epic NLDS Game 5. It had everything.

The bottom line is that the Nationals are the heirs to any post season curse. For the fourth time, the favored Nationals bowed out in the first round.

Teams have this pirate mentality in elimination games; "all hands on deck."  It means everyone has to be ready to contribute to the cause. There is no tomorrow. Backs to the wall. Do or die.

Both teams tried to kill themselves off during the rollercoaster contest.

The 7 out Wade Davis save was cringe worthy since Davis barely got out of the 8th inning.

And this shows how managers lose their baseball IQ during the playoffs by trying to force players to do something they had never done in the real season, like having Davis pitch in three consecutive innings.

His teammates said after the game Davis had "big stones."  The real issue is whether he has any arm left to pitch on Saturday night in LA.

Or whether any pitcher has any viable arms to start Game 1 of the NLCS. Maddon used both Lester and Quintana in relief. That was his playoff rotation used up in the last two games. For some unexplained reason, Maddon refused to warm up Lackey for either Game 4 or 5. If you are on a playoff roster, you should be able to contribute.  But Maddon lost confidence in his bullpen (as shown by carting out Edwards in every single game).

For most people it does not matter because last night's game was so insane.

A rested Dodger team will start Kershaw in Game 1. The logical choice would be the Cubs starting Lackey in the large confines of Dodgers Stadium in Game 1, but some people think Maddon will try to start Quintana on one and one-half days rest.  If Lackey is not going to start a NLCS game and Maddon has no confidence in him coming to pitch in relief, then Lackey should be dropped from the playoff roster. In close, wild games like last night, you cannot run out of players. The Cubs almost did.

REVERSE COURSE FULL SPEED AHEAD

In the previous two off-seasons, White Sox GM Hahn was credited as winning the winter by the moves he made to bring major league talent in an effort to win now. But all those acquisitions underperformed to the point of discontent both in the locker room and stands.

At mid-season, Hahn said he was unhappy with the performance of his club. He said the off-season would signal which direction the team was going to take. It is apparent this is a total, painful, four year rebuild process.

Ace Chris Sale had worn out his welcome with President Kenny Williams. The Sox could not win with him, so with his three year $48 million ownership friendly deal, the White Sox acquired four Red Sox prospects, including the #1 overall position prospect in Yoan Moncada.

Boston also sent highly touted pitching prospect Michael Kopech, outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe and right-hander Victor Diaz to Chicago. Moncada is the #1 ranked in the game, according to MLBPipeline.com. The deal marks the first time in at least 25 years that baseball's No. 1 prospect has been traded, based on the rankings done by MLB Pipeline and Baseball America.

If that was not enough, Hahn stunned the winter meetings by trading OF Adam Eaton to the Nationals for their three best prospects, including the #1 pitching prospect in the game.

Eaton, 28, is under contract for the next 5 years. He had a freak 6.0 WAR last season after moving from CF to RF. He had been one of the most productive outfielders in the Majors during the past three years even though he has flown a bit under the radar. Since 2014, he has accumulated a 12.7 WAR according to FanGraphs, which ranks 10th among all Major League outfielders. The locals who watched Eaton play on a daily basis were underwhelmed by his play, especially in CF. But the Nationals are going to play him in center so to move their best prospect, Trea Turner, to shortstop. Some believe that Eaton will wind up in RF in Washington because their home park has a large CF area that Eaton cannot cover. Bryce Harper, who is looking for a $400 million extension, could move to center. The Nationals clearly believe that their championship window is closing so they had to make a deal for an affordable, multiple tool center fielder.

In order to acquire Eaton, the Nationals traded Lucas Giolito (#1 prospect), Reynaldo Lopez (#2 prospect) and  and Dane Dunning (#6 prospect, last year's first round pick). The three right-handed pitchers are very young, but Gilolito and Lopez have tasted limited major league action. Lopez was stellar in some of his starts with a plus fastball and killer curve.  Giolito is baseball's number 3 overall and Lopez comes in at No. 38, but some scouts believe Lopez may have more upside.

So in a matter of 24 hours, the White Sox have turned their bottom quarter farm system into a Top 5 organization. The minors are now loaded with Top 100 prospects: 1., Moncada, 3.Giolito, 30 Kopech, 38 Lopez, 58 Carson Fulmer, 80 Zack Collins. The Top 10 Sox prospects are now 1 Moncada, 2, Giolito, 3 Kopech, 4 Lopez, 5. Fulmer, 6. Collins, 7 Spencer Adams, 8 Zack Burdi, 9 Luis Basabe, and 10 Dunning. Six of the Top Ten White Sox prospects have arrived in the past 24 hours.

The crazy thing is that the White Sox had good quality pitching prospects before the two deals. On the prospect list are pitchers Alec Hansen (14), LHP Jordan Guerreo (16), Jordan Stephens (17), Tyler Danish (21), LHP Brian Clark (22), and Chris Beck (24). No wonder no one blinks at the prospect that Hahn could pull the trigger and trade SP Jose Quintana to reap the same type of return as Chris Sale.

It is true that most prospects to not pan out to be impact major league players. But the Sox now have so much pitching depth that it is more probable than not that in the near future they will field a home grown, dominating starting rotation which would be the envy of the league.

THE PRIZE (UPDATED)

The Winter meetings are slowly moving through the bars and lobby. The talk is still about Chris Sale.

Sale would be the prize of this off-season.

The reason is simple: he has tremendous locked in value.

He is signed through the next three years at the low price of $48 million.
He has amassed a career 31.1 WAR, an average of 4.44 per season.
Last year WAR was 6.6.

Based on valuation, his contract value WAR is 2.71. His average career performance WAR is 4.44 or a difference of 1.73 WAR at an annual value of $10.21 million. Over the life of the contract, a team is getting a minimum $30.62 million more value from Sale and his deal than what the team will pay him.

Last year alone, Sale outperformed his contract by $29.85 million. At that pace, you are getting a $90 million ace starter for 5th starter money.

The Dodgers just signed 36 year old Rich Hill to a $48 million, 3 year deal. For the same money, who would not want Sale over Hill?

Last year, Hill had an inflated WAR of 4.1 His career WAR is only 9.5 over 12 seasons (.0.79 = less than AAA replacement value). But by last year's standard, Sale was + 2.5 WAR better than Hill for better value by $14.75 million.

This is why the White Sox are wanting a huge price for Sale. Reports continue to state that the White Sox want at least four quality prospects (Top 10) or a mix of prospects and major league ready players under long term control.

That is why the Astros dangling OF George Springer for Sale is a possibility. Springer is under team control through 2021. He is currently at the league minimum. He hit .261, 29 HR, 82 RBI for Houston in 2016. Last year his WAR was 5.0. A package with Springer and two of Houston's best prospects could swing a Sale deal.

But the White Sox have some time to get other teams hot and bothered by a potential deal. The Nationals continue to be described as the "hottest" team on the Sale trail. But the Nats do not want to part with their two best prospects (SS Turner and OF Robles).  But the odds are that some team will be winning to "overpay" for Sale if they believe they are one key player away from a World Series berth.

UPDATE:

Within ten minutes of this post, MLBTR reports Sale has been traded to the Red Sox for four prospects.

The Red Sox and White Sox have agreed to a blockbuster trade that will send Sale from Chicago to Boston in exchange for Yoan Moncada, Michale Kopech and two other prospects, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

Moncada, 21, is the #1 prospect in all Baseball. The Cuban 2B/3B hit .294, 15 HR 62 RBI in A-AA ball last season.

Kopech was the #5 Red Sox prospect (#67 in majors). He is a starting pitcher who was 4-1, 2.08 ERA, 1.101 WHIP in Class A ball.
  

STRASBURG EXTENSION

He will still be the 6th highest paid pitcher in MLB history. But why did Washington's ace pitcher accept a long term extension early in his free agent walk year?

It was a baffling move from all sides. The  Nationals have agreed to a seven-year, $175 million extension with RHP Stephen Strasburg.  Strasburg is a Scott Boras client. Boras has the reputation of getting his clients to free agency where he can leverage the biggest deals (by getting teams to bid against each other). With an extension, Boras loses leverage to make a long term deal.

For Washington, it is a seven year risk based on Strasburg's injury history. The ace pitcher has underperformed throughout his career. He will soon be on the 7th anniversary of his Tommy John surgery. The Nats had said in the past that their major concern with any pitcher post-TJ is in year 7: they don't think the repaired ligament will hold after seven full MLB seasons. There is proof of this by the rash of pitchers having second TJ surgeries. So the Nationals are going against their own medical philosophy to make this extension.

In order to make a deal, both sides must receive something they value. For Strasburg, it is guaranteed money and an opt-out. For the team, it is deferring most of the guaranteed money.

According to the Washington Post, Strasburg will take home a team friendly  $15 million annually  from 2017 through 2023, excluding bonuses which could reach $7 million.  The remaining $70 million will be deferred without interest and paid out in $10 million installments from 2024 through 2030. The team is spinning this extension at a "present value" of only $162 million.

Strasburg can opt out after its third and fourth seasons. If he can stay healthy, he can be a premier free agent in 2019 at age 30. But the real value to Strasburg, given his history, is this deal acts like an insurance policy against another major injury. If his arm gets hit by a bus tomorrow, he will get paid a lot of money through 2030.

In additional minor give and takes, Strasburg won’t receive no-trade protection but the team got no provisions relating to arm health to discount any future payouts.

The question remains why would Strasburg forego free agency? One would believe that he would have asked for a $200 million type David Price deal. Some could say that Strasburg did not want to "bet" on himself going into this off-season. Which is odd concerning in his first seven starts, he is 5-0, 2.76 ERA, 1.041 WHIP. But his body or his mind must have told him to cut a long term deal now when things are going well to take off any future financial pressures on his family.

The Nationals must believe that they got a star player at a market discount. But other teams see the revenue horizon being darker than today. Cable television model, which fueled the mega-local broadcast rights deals in the past few years, is going by the wayside. Younger fans consume their entertainment on demand and not by sitting to watch a designated game at a designated time on a designated channel. The big money spenders like ESPN have started to purge high priced talent and reign in expenses since their carriage charges are being balked at by the cable and satellite operators. In seven years, the MLB broadcast revenue could be cut in half which would make even Strasburg long term deal seem very expensive.

PESSIMISTS

After the opening victory over the Nationals, the Cubs were  21-6. A 77.8 win percentage leads the majors. On pace for a record 126 wins. Even if the team goes .500 for the rest of the season, the Cubs will finish with 96 wins.

All is well on the North Side.

The stat of the night was the fact that the Cubs have won 33 of Kyle Hendricks' 50 games as a starter. That is a 66.0 winning percentage. That is incredibly good for a fifth starter. In his 50 Cub starts, Hendricks' record is 17-11, 3.45 ERA, 1.123 WHIP and 5.1 WAR. One would be hard pressed to find a better fifth starter.

But a certain segment of the fan base and media are pessimists. They worry about the Cubs pitching as compared to the young arms of the Mets. They may be uncomfortable with the soft stuff of Hendricks, but so long as he has confidence in his pitches, he can paint the corners with his two-seamer. They worry about John Lackey's age and rough couple of games for the Cubs. Lackey brings to the mound a mean streak of a junkyard dog. This compliments John Lester's apparent inner anger every time he pitches. This is in a stark contrast to Jake Arrieta's zen like machine performances.

So far the Cubs starting rotation has been solid.

But there is a probability that one or more of the starters will get hurt or go through a mid season slump (most nominate Hammel). The one major complaint against the front office is that Theo-Jed have not drafted and developed a starting pitcher (Hendrick is a carryover from the prior regime.) Even though the Cubs have used 47 percent of their draft choices on pitchers, it is the quality young hitters that have been the beacons to success.

There was a rebuild theory that you drafted the best bats early (since they are easier to project at the major league level) over pitching (because of potential arm issues) then buy starters in the open market when you are ready to compete. You get your fielders under cheap control while you pay a premium for known, quality starting pitching.

But everyone is looking for pitching since it can stop quality hitting. There is a shortage of quality guys. That is why the Mets home grown armada of starters is the envy of the league.

So far, the Cubs have weathered injuries to their platoon left fielder, starting catcher, and 5th outfielder. The pitching staff has not been stressed to date because the Cubs offense continues to set a ridiculous pace of a plus 96 run differential.

But the problem in last post-season was that the Cubs only had two trusted starters, Arrieta and Lester. Lackey was brought in to be that post season #3, but his age and a long day game summer season could put him into the bad Hammel camp. No one knows if Hendricks can handle the pressure of being a #3 post season pitcher (which could lead to being a game 7 starter). There is no one in Iowa (AAA) ready, willing or able to be a #3 starter in the majors. No one wants to the Cubs to part with their young stud talent (Baez, Almora, McKinney, Contreras) for starting pitching, but you never can tell when a championship window opens and closes. Ask the Nationals about that.

WORST DEAL OF THE OFF SEASON?

In worst off-season move, according to baseball executives.

Jason Stark of ESPN polled baseball management about the off-season.

Among the questions Stark asked execs was which free agent deal was the worst of this MLB offseason. It turns out some of the Nationals' rivals see little sense in their decision to sign Max Scherzer to a $210 million deal.
Here is how Stark explains it:

"The reason for that isn't actually confusing. We'd sum it up this way: Love the player, hate the contract. There's no better example of that than Scherzer. "It's ridiculous that they'll be paying him forever," one voter said. "But he's a great pitcher."

There are plenty of reasons why MLB executives may feel this way. Some may chalk it up to jealousy or envy or something intangible like that. Not every executive has the resources Nationals GM Mike Rizzo does to make such a move.

Or, one could take it as a reminder of the risk the Nationals are undertaking in committing such a monstrous price tag to Scherzer, who is a pitcher. Often times these deals do not work out - especially for starting pitchers - which essentially makes the Nationals as ones who are betting against history.

It is a valid point. Long term deals, especially with deferred compensation, can hand cuff a franchise down the road. (Aren't the Mets still paying Bobby Bonilla?) There will be a point when the television money will plateau, then recede. At that point, big spenders will be squeezed and dead money contracts will loom large.

But on the other hand, the Nationals are in "win now" mode. Whether the fan base really appreciates that the team is going all out for a championship in 2015 remains to be seen. D.C. is a fickle sports town. Fair weather fans are like the politics of the city.

The Nationals have a rare pitching staff (on paper) in place: three Aces in a row --- Strasburg, Zimmerman and Scherzer. One would expect no long losing streaks for the Nats this year.

GIFT WRAPPED

It is apparent that the Cubs need to trade C Welington Castillo and LHP Travis Wood.

The question is whether the Cubs previous moves have been to stock pile these
trade chips to go after Cole Hamels.

The Cubs did put in an odd waiver claim in September for Hamels, so the interest
was there (but this was prior to Lester signing).

In the NL, Castillo's offense production is probably top ten, and he is a better defender
than most people give him credit for. So he is an upgrade for half the teams, so he is
valuable. Wood was very good two years ago, and not so good last season. But he is
an experienced, cheap left handed starter. He also has value.

Plus, the Cubs have a stock pile of infield talent to trade.
Teams like Alcantara because he has power for a little second baseman.
Bryant is untouchable, but could the Cubs trade a Baez and replace him with Russell?

The Cubs have been touting CF Almora this week, which means that they are pumping
the media to make other teams like this prospect?

Philadelphia would want a ton for Hamels.
But what about the Nationals if they want to move Strasburg or Zimmerman?

But for a package of Castillo, Wood, Almora and another pitching prospect, the Cubs would
need to get an ace in return, with several years of affordable control, not a rental.

A SURPRISE

MLBTR reports The Nationals have agreed to sign top starting pitcher Max Scherzer  to a seven-year deal, via CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman.

The contract will carry through 2021, which will be Scherzer’s age-36 season for more than $180 million. This is less than the original $200 million demand for the former Tiger starter.

The Nationals were not thought to be a team with an interest in Scherzer. The team was trying to sign their young starter, Jordan Zimmerman, who now looks to become a free agent after this season.

Scherzer, 30, went 18-5, 3.15 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 6.7 WAR in 2014, after a stellar 2013 campaign of 21-3, 2.90 ERA, 0.970 WHIP, 6.0 WAR. In his seven seasons, he has a career 24.0 WAR (3.43 average WAR/year).

The Nationals now have the strongest starting rotation in baseball. Stephen Strasburg, Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister and Scherzer are quite a powerhouse of #1 and #2 starters. The signing also bumps promising youngster Tanner Roark from the rotation.

Perhaps the move was signaled by last week's trade of Tyler Clippard (and his large salary for a relief pitcher).

There is some thoughts out of D.C. that the Nationals will now trade Zimmerman, who is in his walk year, for prospects.


UPDATE:

$210 million is the new figure for the contract  that has provisions that take advantage of District tax laws to save Scherzer money and keep the team’s present-day payments down via historic deferrals, according to Yahoo Sports.

Scherzer will get $15 million a year for the next 14 years, sources said, deferring half the money until after the contract expires. It is by far the largest sum ever deferred in a deal, not quite matching Bobby Bonilla’s 25-year deferral from the Mets in length but more than tripling it in value.

To make up for the loss with the deferrals – because of inflation and lost interest-earning opportunity, future money is worth less than present – Scherzer will receive $50 million in the form of a signing bonus spread over multiple years, the source said. The benefit to structuring the contract as such is that because his permanent residence is outside the District, Scherzer will not be subject to a state income tax on money earned in Washington, D.C.

The Home Rule Act, established in 1973, exempts nonresidents from paying state income taxes at the capital’s 8.5 percent rate. In practice, it means Scherzer would save more than $4.25 million of the $50 million bonus he’ll receive in Washington, D.C. – though just how much of that would be subject to tax elsewhere depends on the state in which he earns the money and where he resides. 

Additionally, none of the $105 million in deferred money would be subject to state taxes, potentially saving Scherzer another $8.92 million. All told, the lack of state income tax in D.C., when compared to playing in tax-heavy states, could save Scherzer eight figures. One source said the tax advantages could end up at more than $20 million, offsetting much of the money lost via deferrals.

SHOOTING FROM THE HIP

A report surfaced Tuesday night that the Cubs and Nationals were engaged in trade discussions about starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann.

Paul Sullivan of the Tribune rebukes the story, stating a Cub source said there has been no discussions of a Zimmerman trade. "He is not available," according to the source.

At the moment Zimmerman would be a one-year rental. Zimmermann is owed $16.5 million in 2015 before becoming a free agent.

However, based on recent free-agent starting pitcher contracts, Zimmermann will be in line for more than $100 million. The guess here is that Zimmermann eventually signs for more than what Homer Bailey got (six years, $105 million) but less than what the Phillies gave Cliff Lee (five years, $120 million).

Something in the five-year, $115 million range seems appropriate for Zimmermann, who has a 2.96 ERA over the last three seasons in 96 starts

From the Cubs, the Phillies are likely seeking Kris Bryant and more in a Hamels trade. The Cubs appear unwilling to trade Bryant, their top prospect who hit .325 with 43 homers at Double A and Triple A this past season, his first full one in pro ball. That's just how negotiations begin.

Because Zimmermann is a rental, he would cost the Cubs less in the way of prospects. Chicago may be looking at parting with shortstop Starlin Castro in a proposed Zimmermann deal, or one of their lesser-but-still-intriguing prospects in utilityman Arismendy Alcantara or outfielder Albert Almora.

Other teams will be kicking the Cub tires for hot prospects like Bryant, Javy Baez and Addison Reed, because the Cubs have a surplus of infielders. The Cubs put a waiver claim on Cole Hamels last season, so that may indicate the team is willing to take on a $100 million pitching contract. The Phillies are having a fire sale now, and Hamels is still available in trade.

Zimmerman would cost less in trade than Hamels. Zimmerman's contract status versus Hamels' guarantees. The Cubs could flip Zimmerman at the deadline to restock their prospect list.

The problem with a megadeal at this time is that the Cubs really don't know what they really have with their prospects. Bryant could be the next Mike Schmidt or the next Mike Olt. In one respect, the highest value may be now, before any actual major league swings and misses. In another respect, if Bryant is the real deal, a starting All-Star position player is more valuable than a starting pitcher.

The Nationals would need an impact player in return since they are in championship mode. Alcantara does not make sense since the infield is set and Span in CF. Almora is still several years off. To trade Zimmerman, the Nats would need a major league ready pitcher in return (for at least depth) and the Cubs don't have anyone, unless you think Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has too many years of cost control to give up in a pitcher rental deal.

It is a long shot that the Cubs make a Zimmerman deal with the Nationals. 

What is picking up early is a market for shortstops. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers and Mariners are actively seeking a shortstop. The Cubs have three on the roster available for the right deal.

A CUBBIE OCCURRENCE

It is hard for Nationals fans to get used to losing a playoff game when you opponent only scores on a walk, a ground out and a wild pitch.  A Cub fan would remark, "get used to it."

TIGERS TRADE

The Tigers continue to make moves this off-season. In another big trade, the team sent  right-hander  Doug Fister  to the Nationals in exchange for pitching prospect Robbie Ray,  utility infielder Steve Lombardozzi and southpaw reliever Ian Krol. 

The Nationals were one of the teams rumored to be on the Jeff Samardzija trade hunt. And I speculated that Krol could have been part of the package for the Shark. But the Tigers pulled the trigger first.

Fister had a very good season. He went 14-9, 3.67 ERA, 1.308 WHIP and 4.1 WAR. He solidifies the Nationals rotation.

The Tigers add some young arms and depth in the infield.  Ray is a 22-year-old southpaw who was a consensus top-ten prospect in the Washington organization. The 12th rounder signed for above slot in 2010, and rose to the Double-A level last year in his age-21 campaign, notching 58 innings of 3.72 ERA ball at Harrisburg where he went 5-2, with a 1.328  WHIP. Krol, also 22,  is a young, left-handed reliever who showed a power fastball in his jump to the bigs last year. For the Nats, he went 2-1, 3.95 ERA, 1.317 WHIP and  0.1 WAR.

Lombardozzi, 25, plays mostly second base. He hit .259 last year, with 2 HR, 22 RBI, .278 OBP, 4 SB. He appears to be insurance/bench player behind newly acquired Ian Kinsler.

Many people believe that the Nationals got the better deal, but that may be in the short run. The Tigers received two quality young left handed pitchers in the deal.

If the Cubs made the same deal with the Nationals for Samardzija, fans would have been happy with the results, because even Lombardozzi would be an offensive upgrade over Darwin Barney at second base.

EARLY TRADE RUMORS

Jeff Samardzija appears to be a hot topic as the off-season trade market opens for business.

The Nationals seem to be on the Shark hunt. The Diamondbacks inquired before July's deadline.

The Nationals are probably better suited for a Cub trade. And this would be an easy one: CF Denard Span and LHP Ian Krol for Samardzija.

Span, 29, hit .279, 20 SB and 2.4 WAR for the Nationals last season. He would upgrade the lead-off spot for the Cubs and roam centerfield for the next two years at $15.5 million.

Krol, 22, a local kid from Naperville, IL, pitched 32 games in relief going 2-1, 3.95 ERA, 1.311 WHIP. He could move into the 5th starter role like Travis Wood did a few seasons ago.

If the Cubs are going to trade a starter, the team needs to get back manageable starters in return. Span would be under team control through 2015 so he won't block any prospect's promotion. Krol is young enough to contribute long term to the pitching staff since the Cubs don't have any minor league starter ready to make a permanent starter assignment. (Kyle Hendricks is probably the closest, but he was in Class AA last season.)

A Diamondback trade would most likely return more low level prospects.

The 40 man Snake roster has Randall Delgado, a pitcher who was going to part of the Dempster to Atlanta deal that fell a part. The D-Backs also have ex-Cub Tony Campana or another small OF in Adam Eaton as possible trade chips.  A Samardzija for Delgado and Eaton trade seems to be less upside than the Nationals one above.

The Diamondbacks also have some interest in OF Nate Schierholtz, who could be packaged with Samardzija or traded alone. Arizona has payroll limitations bearing down on 2014 so Schierholtz fits in their outfield rotation at a reasonable cost. The more the Cubs could package to the Diamondbacks, the more talent the team should receive in return.

The D-Backs are not parting with number one prospect, Archie Bradley. However, No.4 prospect, RHP Braden Shipley or No. 5 prospect, LHP David Holmberg would be interesting prospects. Shipley played in A ball while Holmberg excelled in AA.

Also add the Blue Jays to the mix. The team has signaled it wants to be more active in the trade market than the free agent market this off-season. The Jays have targeted need areas of starting pitching, catcher and second base.

EXPANSION

The Red Sox went from a disastrous implosion to the World Series in a year. The team did so not by rebuilding but re-tooling its existing roster to fill in the needs in order to be competitive. It worked.

The Cubs have decided to blow up the entire organization and start from scratch. The major league roster has been filled with AAA players because in reality, any waiver wire move means that claimed player is valued or ranked 1,200 or higher (30 teams times 40 man protected rosters). The Cubs have been running their organization like an expansion team. So how long did it take the last four expansion teams to find success?

In 1969, Montreal Expos were awarded a franchise. Throughout its history, it has garnered only 2 playoff appearances. It's first winning season happened in 1980 (90-72). That was 13 years after it started the franchise. It's first playoff appearance happened in the strike shortened 1981 season, losing in the NLCS. It took another 20 years for the team, now the Nationals, to reach the playoffs in 2012.

In 1993, Miami was awarded a franchise. Throughout its history, it has 2 World Series championships, 2 pennants in 2 playoff appearances. It's first winning season happened after 5 years in 1997 (92-70) and a championship. The next WS championship happened in 2003, 11 years after its initial charter.

In 1998, Tampa came into the league. Throughout its history, it has 1 pennant and 3 playoff appearances. It's first winning season came  after 11 years in 2008 (97-65) when they lost in the World Series.

Also in 1998, Arizona came into the league. In its history, it has 1 World Series championship, 1 pennant and 5 playoff appearances. It's first winning season came in year 2 (100-62), losing in the LDS. In year 4 of existence, the Diamondbacks won the World Series in 2001.

If we take these examples, we find that it takes a modern expansion team 7.75 years to obtain a winning record and approximately 8 years to make the playoffs.

The Cubs have completed only year 2 of the rebuild with little prospects of improvement in 2014. Taking the past as a guide to the future, the Cubs will need at least 5 more years of rebuilding to become a competitive/playoff team. That projects to 2018 which is beyond the prior guesses from local media pundits. That is long time to wait.

If the Cubs current 10 percent decline in annual attendance continues during this long rebuild process, it is estimated that by the time 2018 rolls around, attendance would be down 876,000 patrons to about 1.535 million. Attendance is a key barometer of fan support. The pure expansion team model can lead to tough times at the box office and further constrict payroll when the time comes to "fill in the gaps" during free agency.

THE SACRIFICE OF THE JESUS

The Cubs suddenly traded David DeJesus to the Nationals, tonight's opponent, for a player to be named later. A nobody to be named later. The Nats get a spare .250 hitting outfielder with an option for his services at $6.5 million next season.

Why did the Cubs feel the need to send DeJesus packing?

It was to activate outfielder Brian Bogusevic?! There was no other roster room in the inn.

Now, of course Bogusevic costs, at the major league minimum, substantially less than DeJesus, this year and next season.

DeJesus was not doing that great this year, a 1.6 WAR, but even that figure is higher than Bogusevic's negative 0.1 WAR.

So why does a team trade a starter for someone worse than a replacement level player?

To continue to lose games. The Cubs have fallen into the NL Central cellar. That's where management wants to the club to be so it can have a higher draft choice next season. A higher draft choice means a larger amateur bonus signing budget. The Cubs current sag has lifted them to the 4th pick in the 2014 draft. That seems to be the next real cap on Epstein-Hoyer next year, as there is a clear mandate to cut major league payroll in 2014.

UPDATE: GM Hoyer confirms that the DeJesus move was to save money. The Cubs saved $2.5 million (the balance of this year's salary and the buy-out for the 2014 season). Despite all the marketing, the Cubs may still have cash flow issues due to the growing amount of no-shows at Wrigley Field. It also signals that DeJesus was no longer in the Cubs plans for 2014 at a salary of $6.5 million. The bottom line for the rest of the season and into the off season is that the Cubs are trying to save money.

The reason why the Nationals claimed DeJesus is also unclear. He does not fit into their roster very well. The Nats have a set outfield. The team immediately put DeJesus back on waivers so maybe they want to flip him before the playoff rosters are set on August 31st. 

HAIRSTON TODAY, GONE TOMORROW

Scott Hairston is no longer a Cub. The 33-year old outfielder has been traded to the Nationals for a Class A player. The Cubs also sent some salary relief ($500,000) to offset the remaining balance of the two-year, $5 million contract.

In 52 games, Hairston had 99 AB, and hit 8 HR, 19 RBI but batted .172.  His season WAR is negative 0.5, which is worse than a AAA replacement player.

Why would the Nationals want a veteran like this? The Nats have had injury problems in their outfield and may wish to solidify a home run bat off the bench.

It also seems that the Cubs are not getting very much in return for their "assets" on the 25 man roster.

How many Class A level prospects can the Cubs absorb in one year (draft and international signings plus trades)?

One must also consider the possibility that the Cubs need to move payroll in order to balance overspending on prospects. The Hairston trade will cut $2 million off the 2014 payroll.

Even though the Cubs are playing poker with Matt Garza by holding on to him to the last minute to try to get a bidding war for that trade, the risk that Garza has one or two bad outings (or gets hurt again) is growing which each start.

The two most valuable trade pieces right now are Luis Valbuena and Dioner Navarro. Valbuena because he is a utility infielder who has flashed some glove skills recently. And Navarro who has excellent pinch hitting numbers, plus he is a switch hitting catcher (a rare commodity). I would not be surprised if these two players get traded before Garza.

NOT THE TRADE WE EXPECTED

We are seeing more trades after a player has been "designated for assignment."  A team needed space on their 40 man roster has to DFA someone in order to activate a disabled player or promote a minor leaguer. It does not always work out well.

The Cubs acquired right handed reliever Henry Rodriguez from the Nationals in exchange for Class A pitcher Ian Dickson.

Rodriguez, 26, has a 4.23 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 across parts of five big league seasons with the A's and Nats. In 18 innings in relief for Washington this year, he had 4.00 ERA with eleven strikeouts and 16 walks.   Rodriguez claim to fame is that he has a 100 mph fastball.

Dickson, 22, was a 35th round selection in the 2011 draft.  Dickson has a 6.88 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in three starts and eight relief appearances for Class A Kane County this year.

From one viewpoint, Rodriguez could be considered the 40th best player on the Cubs roster. But his control issues have had him released by two clubs already in his career. It may be a long shot but it only cost the Cubs a marginal Class A pitcher. But this continues the bad band-aid approach of the front office to gather up the releases of other teams to try to fashion a bullpen.

MORSE TRADE

It seems like an inexpensive deal for all three teams involved in the Michael Morse deal. It was expected that Morse would not bring a blockbuster deal, but each team did add a piece to the puzzle, most notably Seattle, which was desperate to add power to a weak roster.

SI reports:

The Mariners acquired Michael Morse from Washington in a three-team deal that moved catcher John Jaso from Seattle to Oakland.

The NL East champion Nationals reacquired pitching prospect A.J. Cole, dealt from Washington to Oakland 13 months ago in the trade for Gio Gonzalez. Washington also got minor league pitcher Blake Treinen and a player to be named.

Morse hit .291 with 18 home runs and 62 RBIs last year in an injury-shortened season, playing mostly as a corner outfielder. He was with the Mariners from 2005-08 before he was traded to the Nationals for Ryan Langerhans in June 2009.

The Nationals acquired speedy center fielder Denard Span from Minnesota this offseason and contemplated moving the 30-year-old Morse to first base but then re-signed Adam LaRoche. They are set at the corner outfield spots with Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth.

Jaso, 29, batted .276 with 10 homers and 50 RBIs last year but became expendable when Seattle obtained Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez, moves that shift Jesus Montero from a catcher-DH split to primarily behind the plate. The AL West champion A's traded starting catcher Kurt Suzuki to the Nationals last season and replaced him with rookie Derek Norris. To open a roster spot for Jaso, Oakland designated catcher George Kottaras for assignment.

Jaso, a left-handed hitter, had a .394 on-base percentage last season and batted .378 with runners in scoring position. He gives the A's another option at DH and a catching complement for Norris, a right-handed hitter who batted .201 with seven homers in 60 games last year.

Cole, a 21-year-old right-hander, was among four players traded by Washington to Oakland in December 2011 for Gonzalez. Cole was 0-7 with a 7.82 ERA in eight games at Stockton of the California League and 6-3 with a 2.07 ERA at Burlington of the Midwest League, both Class A level.
Baseball America recently rated Cole as the top pitching prospect in Oakland's organization.
Treinen was 7-7 with a 4.37 ERA in 24 games at Stockton last year. The 24-year-old righty was selected by the A's in the seventh round of the 2011 draft.

MORSE CODE

Michael Morse is a National without a home. At age 30, he has been displaced by the team resigning first baseman Adam LaRoche. Morse is not a good defender in the outfielder or first base, but he is a bat.

In 102 games last season, he hit .291, 18 HR, 62 RBI, .321 OBP, 0.6 WAR.
In 2011, he played full time and hit .303, 31 HR, 95 RBI, .360 OBP, 3.8 WAR.

He is one year away from free agency. He may be considered a late bloomer (he was drafted in the third round in 2000).

He projects as a left field/first baseman.

The Cubs have Soriano locked in left, and Rizzo locked at first.
However, the Cubs have no true replacement/back up for Soriano or Rizzo. The Cubs have no player insurance on the roster if Soriano or Rizzo gets hurt during the season.

The Cubs have three durable HR hitters on the squad: Soriano, Rizzo and Castro.

If the Cubs think Nate Schierholtz can transform into a full time right fielder, they are dreaming. He played only 114 games last season, and hit .257, 6 HR, 21 RBI, .321 OBP, negative 0.1 WAR. He was worse than a replacement (AAA) player.

So it is strange that the Cubs are not mentioned as a possible trade partner to acquire Morse. Teams should be trying to improve every position during the off season. Morse is a clear upgrade over the current RF choices and any utility player on the bench.

The Nationals may be willing to give up Morse for a low price ( a left handed reliever). It would easy to slide Morse into a right field platoon and spell Rizzo at first against hard left handed starters. It would seem to be a no-brainer to at least talk to the Nationals about Morse. It is only for one year.

OBSCENE FRUSTRATION

It has to be the worst series performance by the Cubs in my lifetime.

The Cubs lost all four games in D.C.: 2-1, 11-5, 9-1 and 9-2. The pitching staff was mostly throwing batting practice and the hitters unable to put together quality innings. The whole season can be summed up on the final out of the game, where Jackson hit a ball deep to the wall but jogged around second base not knowing where it was or the call on the play. He did not pick up his coaches, he just stopped after rounding second and was easily tagged out to end the game. Broadcaster Bob Brenly growled that Jackson deserved to be tagged out because he did not run hard around the bases. It was another frustrating lack of basic baseball IQ that has been the calling card for Cub players for years.

The Nationals smacked 15 home runs to the Cubs 3 (2 by Rizzo, 1 by Soriano). The Nationals batted .366 for the series, the Cubs batted only .195. The Cubs were outscored 31-9.

The Cubs have lost 17 of their last 18 road games. The Cubs have only won a meager 17 road games all season. The Cubs record of 51-86 is a pace for a team record for losses in a season. There is no life is this dullard team.

And when there is a spark, it is the bad kind. Bench coach Jamie Quirk got into an obscene laced shouting match with Nationals third base coach Bo Porter in the 5th inning. Apparently, Quirk took issue that the Nationals "were running up the score" by swinging at 3-0 pitches. Come on, this is not little league without a slaughter rule! But no, Quirk went nuts and the benches cleared with no fights. Quirk was ejected from the game.  As home plate umpire Jerry Layne said, "All that stuff that happened, it was instigated by Quirk screaming out at Porter. And the obscenities that he screamed out I just felt was inappropriate, and that's what caused everything. The reason he was ejected was he was the cause."

Quirk is part of the Cause, indeed. Why it took 137 games to realize that the Cubs team is horribly bad and the players collectively have stopped competing is hard to fathom. The Nationals are in a pennant race. Their players know that in order to win they have to continue to perform. They are not going to throttle back when a weak team comes into town. If the Cubs coaches were looking for mercy or sympathy from their opponents, this is not the time or sport for that garbage. The Nationals accomplished the goal at the start of every game: to win. So they took the Cubs to wood shed in the process. Epstein and Hoyer always talk about "the process." The process so far has not been good.

The fundamentals are horrible. Pitchers can't throw strikes. Batters can't make contact with the ball.
But the baseball IQ is just as bad. Players don't seem to instinctively know what is going to happen before and during the play. There is no anticipatory action, just eye to hand reaction to events in front of them. The Jackson out to end the game stuck in Brenly's craw because it should have never been an out if the player understood the situation he was in; if he assumed he hit a home run, don't assume it until an umpire signals a home run.

It is hard to feel any sympathy for the Cub players who got chippy all game. When Lenny Castillo, a wasted Rule 5 roster spot, threw deep inside at Bryce Harper's knees, things once again got ugly. Harper started to the mound, but catcher Steve Clevenger stopped him. When the benches emptied, Clevenger was the one looking to punch someone, anyone. Clevenger and Manny Corpas were ejected for fighting, as well as a National reliever, Mike Gonzalez. The real punishment for manager Dale Sveum was that he was NOT ejected from the game; so he had stand in the corner with an imaginary dunce hat on as his club got walloped for the third night in a row.

"It's probably one of the biggest butt-whippings I've ever gotten in my career, as a coach or player," Sveum said. "I don't remember getting man handled that bad in any kind of series I've ever been a part of." So what is Sveum going to do about it? Nothing. And that is the frustrating thing for Cub fans. The team checked out of the season this week in D.C. There really is nothing left for Cub fans to watch expect more bad baseball. The Bears NFL season starts Sunday so that is where the fan base will gravitate towards - - - expected victories in the NFC North.

Every baseball team has it faults. The Cubs currently have all the faults. Competency appears at a low ebb right now. The minor league system is still not training players to be able to perform at the major league level. The major league coaches are still not getting their players to  perform consistently at a major league level. The team's baseball IQ has to be at the low end of the league. And the front office is more focused in on pimping out players for paid lunches for additional fan revenue than developing the talent that is part of the alleged process. It is one thing to blame the last regime for the sad state of the organization, but Epstein and Hoyer have to take full blame for the ugly record and further regression of the team of this season.