Theo Epstein was on WEEI-Boston's baseball show. In a long interview, he made certain points on how the current CBA has changed how he operates a franchise. His opinion is that the new CBA severely restricts what made him successful in the past.
“I think the biggest challenge is just the changes with the CBA, you
can’t really choose how much you want to emphasize the draft anymore. In
Boston, we decided that it was going to be fundamental to our approach,
that in order to win a World Series, we needed to develop homegrown players, in order to develop homegrown
players, we wanted to shift as many of our resources as we could to the
draft,” said Epstein. “So we let free agents walk after the ’04 World Series. We let Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe and Orlando Cabrera walk, and we used those picks to sign the [Jacoby] Ellsburys and [Clay] Buchholzes of the world. We made the trade for Victor Martinez knowing, yeah, you’re going to get a year and a half of production from
him and help us get to the postseason and then we’re going to let him
walk. I think we got Henry Owens and Matt Barnes for Victor. That was just a fundamental part of the approach. It was a
strategy and it was really important to how we built the organization.
“And now,” Epstein continued, “you can’t really develop a strategy
around draft picks. Sure, you might have someone that in a given year
you can make a qualifying offer to, in the case of the Red Sox and
Yankees maybe a couple, multiple players you can make qualifying offers
to and get picks that way, but you only get one pick. You don’t get two
anymore. The scope of players who receive compensation is much more
limited and most mid-market teams and below will very rarely if ever
have compensatory picks for free agents leaving now. That’s just
something that you can’t factor in. And you can’t overpay players in
later rounds anymore unless you really go for a bargain in your
first-round pick. That’s just really changed the game. You can still
quote-unquote dominate the draft, make an impact in the draft, the way
we tried to, but it’s on a much smaller scale. I think the days of
getting Barnes, [Blake] Swihart, Owens, [Jackie] Bradley
with your first four picks in 2011, those days are probably gone. You
just have to make due with one or two picks like that in a given year
instead of going for the whole bounty.”
Epstein complains about the new set of rules
he has with the Cubs. He "won" in Boston by doing the following: overspending on first round talent with signability issues by paying them first round money in later rounds; letting free agents walk in order to get two high compensation draft picks; unlimited spending on free agent market (with no real luxury cap restrictions). He can no longer steam roll the system by spending a ton of money to acquire talent.
But in the major leagues, a player needs to adapt and make adjustments in order to succeed. The same is true with management, who must change their strategy in order to do their jobs effectively. Epstein seems to be brooding about the "good old days."
But those good old days included the same tools that have been around baseball for a long time: drafting quality players, making valuable trades and signing good free agents. Epstein is only looking at 1 of the 3 tools when working with the Cubs. He thinks the small number of quality free agents is skewing the free agent market and butting up to the penalty of the luxury tax.
Epstein said, “I think it’s actually probably in practical terms an even bigger
contract [than $175 million] because when you factor in the impact of
the CBT tax that the Yankees will have to pay going forward now, if indeed Tanaka was the player to
push them over this year and therefore the higher rate in subsequent
years. I can’t say I’m surprised. To answer your
question, it reflects the dynamic that there are many, many teams with
lots and lots of dollars to spend and very few places to spend them,
very few players who represent sound investments for the dollars. I
think anytime in this market that you find a player who will be in his
prime years or pre-prime years or close to his prime years and has been
healthy and has recognized tools and has a track record, in this case
not even a track record in the major leagues, but a track record that
points to that player is going to draw significant interest, probably
more than expected, just because the supply/demand dynamic dictates it."
But the free agent market has always been players chasing the biggest pay day. That has not changed. The value of the contracts continue to rise because MLB's gross revenues continue to rise due to new TV deals. The Yankees have found a way to budget in any luxury tax in order to stay competitive in the AL East. Teams like the Yankees in the Tanaka sweepstakes use a risk-reward test to determine if a $100 million plus contract is warranted. Likewise, the Mariners overpaid for Robinson Cano because Seattle needed to in order to revive its fan base. But to sit out the free agent market because second tier players are now commanding higher prices is a ridiculous excuse for a baseball team. Every team has the same issues. By not being involved in the process, the Cubs will regress to become less competitive.
“There are lots of teams demanding talented, prime-age players, and
supply is really a trickle. Fewer and fewer players of that ilk are
reaching free agency. It’s pretty rare that you find a player — maybe
one player a year like that through the posting system, maybe one
through Cuban free agency with a player who qualifies outside the
international spending pool, and that’s about it. You’re going to see
these prices that cause people to shake heads. You still have to justify
it. The guy still has to fit with your long-term plans. But because of
the TV deals, the teams that have them have a lot of money and not a lot
of attractive players to spend the money on.”
Again, teams are extending their own players into their prime years to avoid free agency market values. That seems to be common sense, if your homegrown player is a first tier caliber player. You cannot complain the mid-level free agent market is weak because teams are making sensible decisions with their own players. Epstein did the same thing by extending before arbitration eligibility Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo. But these two "core" players have not met their projected expectations since signing those deals.
So despite their own internal struggles, the Cubs went out last year and overspent on international players to the tune of a overspending penalty and severe restrictions on signing bonuses this year. The Cubs gambled and rolled the dice on a class international players, and costing them a year in the international market as a result. And the Epstein-Cubs track record on international players has not been too good: Cuban pitcher Concepcion is AWOL and power hitter Jorge Soler is quickly moving DOWN the Cub top prospect lists.
MLBTR reported that the Yankees, fresh off a massive free agent spending spree, will be looking to replenish a bleak farm system by preparing to "spend wildly" on the international free agent market this
summer. It is said that New York was planning to incur penalties by
spending $12MM to $15MM on the approaching 2014-15 international signing
period. The new signing season, which kicks off (as always) on July 2,
is believed by many to offer a particularly strong crop of talent.
The Yankees are allotted just over $2MM to spend on international
free agents this summer, but the ESPN/NewYork reports that the
club may spend a staggering $18MM in bonuses as they look to restock
their minor league ranks with high-upside talent. Such an expenditure
would come with the harshest of penalties laid out in the newest CBA;
the Yankees would pay a 100 percent tax on their overage and would not
be allowed to sign a player for more than $250,000 in the following
international signing period. While those measures are undoubtedly
harsh, they haven't stopped the Cubs and Rangers from spending more than
$8 million each on international free agents during the current signing
period.
The Cubs will incur the signing penalty for this year's "strong crop of talent." That means the Cubs have taken themselves out of the international class this time around. That plan seems to be counterintuitive considering logic says that you should look for the best talent (improvement) every year.
Epstein's whole Cub strategy now is to overload the Cubs minor league system with prospects. Any trades he makes are really to add more prospects to the system. It is a simple math equation: if only 6 percent of your prospects make it in the majors, the more prospects one has, the more should make it. But there still are key variables such as scouting, development, training and injury that come into play. The Cub fan base has heard it all before about great prospects in the system: Patterson, Pie, Hill, Kelton, Scott - - - were all going to be great players. They are turned into busts.
“I think the Red Sox are just really well positioned because Ben (Cherington) has
done a phenomenal job with the clubhouse mix and the talent that he’s
brought in," Epstein said. " It’s probably the deepest system in baseball on the way with
plenty of impact talent. They should be good for a long, long time. I
think of the 50 players on the World Series rosters, I think there were something like 35 or 38 homegrown players
on the Cardinals and the Red Sox. Those two franchises are going to
continue to excel. That’s really our model with the Cubs. We’re starting
from the bottom of the well but we’re digging our way up. That’s where
we want to be. We want to have a team with young players — pre-prime and
prime age players, mainly homegrown, not that we won’t use players in
trades and bring in talent from the outside, not that we won’t
complement them with free agent signings from time to time, but we want
to get to a point where we feel great about the roster, great about our
farm system, great about our salary structure, great about the five- and
10-year outlook, and then you can have offseasons like the Cardinals
and Red Sox have had where you just operate from a position of strength
and pick and choose what you want to do because you have depth and
redundancy at a lot of positions. The players you reference are going to
be a big part of making that a reality for the Red Sox. They have great
scouts and great leadership so they should continue that dynamic for a
long time.”
The problem with this approach to be homegrown heavy is that both the Cardinals and the Red Sox got to the mountain top not by solely relying on the draft. Both teams signed free agents and spent big money to keep their own free agents. Once they had a competitive core roster, the teams could scout and sign for need. Further, the Cardinals created a system where management was not afraid to promote talent to the next level, including the major leagues. The accelerated curve is like a lightning bolt throughout the minors - - - it makes players work harder so they are not left behind with just their draft day press clippings. This creates competition at the major league level - - - which in turn puts a better product on the field.
But Epstein and Cubs are not creating a competitive approach at any level. The major league team has been terrible and their is little chance of change in 2014. There is no level of competition at any position because the talent level is meandering around a 1.0 WAR. The Cubs are not putting quality talent at the major league level in order not to "block" their rising prospects from a major league roster spot. And if these prized prospects fail, there is a huge sink hole on the major league level.
Further, it seems Epstein has taken the view that it will take 10 years for the Cubs to come to the level of the Red Sox or Cardinals. That means 7 more off-seasons like the current one. It means a decade of losing in order to secure high draft spots to allegedly sign better quality prospects.
The last thing about the Epstein interview that may teeth-grind some fans is Theo's continued high praise for his former club.
“First of all, it was a lot of fun to watch it. I’m in contact with a
lot of guys from the baseball ops department and cheering them on,”
said Epstein. “It was a magical run. It was probably fun even for
non-Red Sox fans to watch that team build momentum through the season,
go on the run they went on in the postseason. The chemistry they had was
incredible. But it was probably particularly fun for me, being this
familiar with a lot of players’ backgrounds, a lot of guys have come up
through the system, it was just a magical run and really fun to watch.
“I follow [the Sox prospects] really closely, probably with equal
parts admiration, pride and jealousy. I am really proud of what we
built. As far as GMs go, I think I was pretty hands-on as far as
building our scouting department, went out and saw the players. It was
just a great decade,” said Epstein. “I’m proud of those players, and
that last draft, there was enough that went wrong in 2011. I think in
time, it would be a wonderful thing for everybody if, maybe we’ll reach
that day when people think of 2011, they think of that draft class, my
last draft with the Red Sox. That would be nice, because it would mean
great things for the Red Sox and it would mean those players went on to
have great careers that would maybe wipe some of the memory of September
2011 away for everybody and for myself, as if that hasn’t happened
enough already with a lot of those same players helping to win a
championship in ’13. It was a great decade in the draft there, and that
was a great last draft. Those players are performing really well and we
see them up at the top of prospect rankings. I definitely root for them.
I covet them here with the Cubs at times. But I wish them well," he said.
One could read a hint that Epstein feels he has been exiled to a backwater baseball farmstead. He would rather sit back on the laurels of the Boston organization than champion his rebuild plans for the Cubs. And that may be more disheartening than waiting for the prospects to arrive at the major league level.
