Multiple reports state that Jeff Samardzija has turned down the Cubs latest contract extension, approximately $85 million for five years. Supposedly, the Cubs prior offer was around $65-70 million.
Samardzija's camp believes that he is "worth" more than Homer Bailey, the Reds starter who earned a six year $105 million extension.
Bailey, 28, is in his 8th major league season. He has made 157 starts. His record: 56-48, 4.29 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, 5.9 career WAR.
Samardzija, 29, is in his 7th major league season. He has made 81 starts (in 204 GP). His record: 31-41, 3.96 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 5.4 career WAR.
Yes, some of the statistics are similar.
But, Bailey has made more career starts. Bailey has a better record, including career WAR. Bailey's new deal pegs his value at $17.5 million per season.
The Cubs peg Samardzija's value at $17.0 million per season.
If Samardzija is thinking that he has "ace" value like Clayton Kershaw, who just threw a complete game 15 K no hitter, he is delusional. Kershaw signed a 7 year $215 million Dodger mega-deal. That is $31.7 million per season.
Kershaw, 26, is also in his 7th major league season. He has made 192 starts. His record: 84-48, 2.60 ERA, 1.083 WHIP and career 34.2 WAR.
By the "ace" measure, Kershaw is at least "worth" 5.33 times more than Samardzija (because of a plus 28.8 WAR differential). By this objective measure, Samardzija is only worth $5.96 million per season.
But most observers will say that the "market" for starting pitching is very high. It is not unreasonable for marginal starters who have large paydays (ex., Edwin Jackson's $52 million deal).
Samardzija by all accounts is willing to risk two more arbitration years with the Cubs to get to his goal of a $20 million plus salary per season when he is 31.
The Cubs public play for a last minute extension for a popular player is just that: public relations. It was clear since spring training that Samardzija wants to test free agency. He hates the constant losing of the Cubs. He has been upset with management trading away 40 percent of the rotation every year. Now, this year is his turn to be traded for prospects. He is okay with that move. It would give him a chance to play for a better team, and improve his statistics for his eventual free agency.
So the Cubs have the excuse "we tried to re-sign The Shark," when they go to beg season ticket holders to renew this November. But it a hollow message.
The Cub fan base has grown tired of the veteran trade for prospects mantra of the front office. With winning now out of sight for most, out of sight is out of mind.
The Cubs hope that a close AL East race between the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees will create a bidding war for Samardzija and Jason Hammel. Kansas City is also mentioned as a trade candidate as the Royals have had a perpetual crop of prospects to promote or trade. But none of these clubs are going to trade their best pitching prospects for a 29 year old veteran who would project to a #4 or #5 starter in their current rotations.
The Cubs asking price for Samardzija may be as delusional as Samardzija's own self worth.
