Today the baseball world selects high school and college players in the league's draft.
MLB.com Jim Callis projects the first ten picks:
1. Astros: Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (Calif.)
Houston's decision likely will come down to Aiken, Rodon and Jackson,
none of whom is expected to command the full $7,922,100 assigned pick
value. There's increasing chatter that the Astros might play it safer by
going for a bat, but the guess here is that they'll pop the Draft's
top-rated prospect in Aiken.
2. Marlins: Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State
Miami is focusing on the same players as Houston. Ownership may prefer
Rodon and some senior club officials may want Jackson, the best bat in
the Draft. It's unclear whether the Marlins would take Aiken if he's
available.
3. White Sox: Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd HS (Texas)
Rodon may be No. 1 on Chicago's board and likely would be the pick here,
but signability could be an issue. The White Sox almost certainly will
take an arm and it's hard to ignore the upside of Kolek, the hard
throwing high schooler. If the South Siders prefer collegians to
prepsters, polished Louisiana State right-hander Aaron Nola could be
their man.
4. Cubs: Michael Conforto, OF, Oregon State
Chicago wants pitching and covets Rodon, who could land here if Jackson
goes to Houston or Miami. But if Rodon goes in the top three, the Cubs
may not like any of the arms enough to take them this high. Hoffman
would have been an obvious target before he blew out his elbow, and the
Cubs could pass on Kolek or Nola. There's a growing sense that they'll
save money to go after pitching later by cutting a deal with Conforto or
Kennesaw State catcher Max Pentecost. Chicago could take Gordon, but it
doesn't appear to be in on Jackson.
5. Twins: Nick Gordon, SS, Olympia HS (Fla.)
Minnesota will wait to see which of the five best prospects remains and
likely will take the top one remaining on its board, probably Gordon.
Other options would be a college pitcher such as Hartford left-hander
Sean Newcomb or stockpiling cash by doing a deal with someone such as
Lee's Summit (Mo.) West High outfielder Monte Harrison.
6. Mariners: Alex Jackson, C/OF, Rancho Bernardo HS (Calif.)
This would be a dream scenario for Seattle, as Jackson's power would
play well even at Safeco Field. He should get here if he doesn't go
first or second. Otherwise, the Mariners will turn to the college ranks
for Newcomb, Nola, Conforto or North Carolina State shortstop Trea
Turner.
7. Phillies: Aaron Nola, RHP, Louisiana State
Neither Gordon nor Nola is expected to get past Philadelphia, with the
latter more likely to be available. The Phillies will consider many of
the same players as the Mariners, as well as Evansville left-hander Kyle
Freeland, who had an MRI last week to clear up confusion involving his
elbow arising from an old medical report. This looks like the high-water
mark for slugging Clovis (Calif.) High shortstop Jacob Gatewood, but he
has swing-and-miss concerns and Philadelphia needs more immediate help.
8. Rockies: Kyle Freeland, LHP, Evansville
Colorado almost certainly will go the college route for the ninth time
with its last 11 first-rounders. The Rockies would love to grab Nola,
and also will consider Freeland -- they know his medical history well
because their team doctor performed Freeland's arthroscopic elbow
surgery when he was a Denver high schooler -- and Newcomb. Other options
include Indiana catcher/outfielder Kyle Schwarber and San Francisco
outfielder Bradley Zimmer.
9. Blue Jays: Trea Turner, SS, North Carolina State
The same three names come up again and again for Toronto's two picks at
Nos. 9 and 11: Hoffman, Turner and Coral Springs (Fla.) Christian
Academy right-hander Touki Toussaint. Of that trio, the Mets are most
likely to take Turner at No. 10, so he could be the choice here.
10. Mets: Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford
After taking high school position players with its previous three
first-round selections, New York is tied to college prospects this year.
The Mets' top three targets look like Conforto, Newcomb and Turner in
some order. If they're all unavailable, Beede and Zimmer could fit.
Most writers believe that this year's draft is deep in pitching, which is good because despite the emphasis in the last two drafts on selecting arms, the Cubs minor league system does not have a dominate reputation for MLB talent in pitching.
Many observers also believe that teams should not address "needs" in a draft, but select the best available player. It is true that drafts are crapshoots (with only 6% of selections making the majors), but not to draft a "need" position is not a good strategy. The Cubs minor league system does not have any viable catching prospects. This is a clear "need" area. There are several first round quality catchers in this draft: Alex Jackson (projects to OF); Kyle Schwarber; Max Pentecost. Selecting a catcher with the first pick would not be a horrible idea.
The tip off for the Cubs is if they draft high schoolers high in the draft, they are projecting a five year development plan going forward. It means that the rebuilding process will be more toward 2019 at the major league level. If the Cubs concentrate on college players, then there is a shift to speed up the prospect promotion earlier than 2019.
I don't like the idea of "over drafting" a player in the first round to sign him for "a lower number than slot" and use that savings to spend on other players in the next few rounds (first rounders who slip because of injury or signability issues). Use your high round picks on the best talent and don't worry about saving money for later rounds. The Cubs need impact players not cost effective prospects.
