A couple of general observations from the last baseball draft.
Despite the colorful scouting blurbs, less than 6 percent of the players drafted will make the majors. And only one percent or less will be impact major leaguers.
Of the 40 players the Cubs drafted, maybe two will make it to the majors, and the odds are 2-to-1 against either one being an impact player.
Despite what front offices tell the media, the general perception is that teams do not draft for "need" but for the best available player on their board. This can never be true. There are too many factors to consider, and a key one is "organizational needs."
The Cubs have two major problems in their minor league system. They are devoid of catching prospects at any level. As a result, the Cubs did draft several "catchers" in this year's draft, even though some observers believe one is really a first baseman-DH and the other may be a utility outfielder.
The second issue is the depth of pitching talent in the minors. The Cubs best arms in the system have come from trades, not home grown selections. Even though in Epstein's first two drafts, the majority of selections were pitchers, no one has jumped to the top of the "can't miss" lists compiled by independent experts. As a result the Cubs took many pitchers in the draft hoping that there is some strength in numbers.
Then there is the age of the player. The Cubs started with college hitters, who are easier to project and faster to develop. On average, a highly drafted college position player should reach the majors in slightly under 3 years. On the other hand, a high school player may take as much as 5 years.
The Cubs drafted many high school pitchers. This means that the weakness at the major league level, pitching depth, will not have a potential influx of talent for another five years if one goes by the home grown rebuilding strategy of the front office.
It also means that drafting a lot of high school players means that many of them will not sign professional contracts. Many will in turn go to college to improve their draft stock in the future. The difference between a first round selection and an 11th round pick is millions of dollars. The difference between a 10th round pick and an 11th round pick is still hundreds of thousands of dollars. Is it worth it for an 18 year kid to get six figures to ride a minor league bus for 5 years, or go to a major baseball college for 2 years and maybe get a first few round fast track to the majors?
Of all the Cubs prospects that the media and fans have been watching and salivating over the past few years, only Kris Bryant continues to light up the headlines with his HR power. Others have hit slumps or better competition, or have had injury set backs. The same will hold true for this draft class.
