December 5, 2015

HAMMEL

Jason Hammel had a bad second half. Joe Maddon lost confidence in him.
He has one year to go on his current deal for $9 million. Hammel did post a 1.7 WAR last season, which is worth about $9.52 million, so he actually performed above his WAR value (like himself plus a minimum 25 man roster player).

Because of the flux in the free agent pitching market, and some teams not willing to overpay for second tier pitching, Hammel can be an affordable option. The Cubs are in the same position trying to find affordable pitching on a tight budget.  But in order to fill an urgent need in CF, the Cubs have to trade salary in order to make acquisitions.

Hammel seems to be a trade candidate for a center fielder.

If you look at the value spectrum for starting rotations, it looks like this:

Fifth starter: $4.5 million
Fourth starter: $ 9 million
Third starter: $13.5 million
Second starter: $18 million
Ace: $22.5 million

Hammel fits into the 4th starter realm.

But to get a center fielder making $9 million in value puts end of the road veterans or journeymen like Matt Kemp, Coco Crisp or even Austin Jackson in the mix. To trade Hammel, the Cubs would need to get a center fielder who platooned last year on a club but who could play full time, or an excess outfielder with potential (like the Red Sox now have an outfield surplus with the signing of Chris Young.)

If Hammel cannot be used as trade chip, he may be moved just to add $9 million in unused payroll to help sign a free agent.