December 29, 2015

THE HIGH COST OF RENTAL PLAYERS

MLBTR reports that the Yankees paid a high price to acquire a closer.

After months of trying to add a third dominant reliever to their bullpen, the Yankees on Monday announced the acquisition of left-hander Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in exchange for a quartet of minor leaguers. Third baseman Eric Jagielo will head to Cincinnati, as will second baseman Tony Renda and right-handers Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham. Chapman will presumably slide into the Yankees’ closer role, combining with fellow southpaw Andrew Miller and right-hander Dellin Betances to create perhaps the most formidable bullpen trio in all of Major League Baseball next season.

Chapman, 27, is arguably baseball’s best relief pitcher, is set to become a free agent in 2017. But there is a domestic violence allegations that ultimately halted a trade to the Dodgers from being finalized earlier this month. Chapman is currently being investigated by the league, and if he is found in violation of the league’s new domestic violence policy, he could fall short of the six years service time needed to become a free agent. It would seem the Yankees acquired Chapman in order to have exclusive negotiating rights to him during the 2016 season.

Cincinnati is the garage sale rebuild mode after trading All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier to the White Sox. The Reds have added two minor leaguers from the Yankees’ second tier of prospects (Jagielo  #6 prospect and Davis #10 prospect) in addition to a pair of prospects that didn’t crack the Top 30 lists of either MLB.com or Baseball America.

Jagielo, 23, was selected in the first round of the 2013 draft out of Notre Dame. A knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery shortened his 2015 season, but when he was healthy, he batted .284/.347/.495 with nine homers in 58 games/248 plate appearances at the Double-A level. MLB.com’s scouting report notes that Jagielo is strong and has “good loft in his swing,” giving him the ability to drive the ball to all fields. His penchant for strikeouts (23.3 percent in 2015; 24.4 percent in 2014) is a red flag, but MLB.com notes that he draws enough walks to post sound OBP numbers even if his batting average is lackluster. The question surrounding Jagielo is whether he’ll stay at third base or move across the diamond to first, as questions about his range and arm strength are oft-cited strikes against him. Despite those potential issues, MLB.com did rate him as the No. 7 third-base prospect in the game.

As for Davis, Norris notes in his scouting report over at BA that alterations to his delivery led to a breakout of sorts in 2015. Davis pitched to a combined 3.86 ERA with 8.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in in 130 2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. The mechanical changes resulted in increased velocity, per Norris, who writes that Davis sits 93 to 95 mph with his heater — a pitch that is complemented by a sharp mid-70s curve and a low-80s changeup. BA indicates that he could be a mid-rotation starter, while MLB.com notes that he has good control but spotty command (i.e. throws strikes but doesn’t command the pitches within the strike zone) and could be best suited for a relief role, where his velocity could approach triple digits.

The Yankees acquired Renda, 24, from the Nationals this past season in exchange for right-hander David Carpenter.  The fleet-footed infielder batted .269/.330/.358 in 532 Double-A plate appearances between the two organizations, adding three homers and 23 steals (in 29 attempts). Renda rated 12th among Nationals farmhands last season and was 22nd on MLB.com’s Top 30 at the time of the trade to the Yankees in early June. BA praised his compact swing and line-drive stroke in last winter’s scouting report, noting that his bat has a chance to be above-average, and he’s tough to strike out. He’s drawn praise for his makeup and work ethic as well as his advanced bat control while noting that he lacked power.

Cotham, who turned 28 in November, made his big league debut with the Yankees this past season but struggled, yielding seven runs on 14 hits (four homers) and a walk with 11 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings. That 11-to-1 K/BB ratio is encouraging, however, as is the 1.74 ERA that Cotham recorded in 31 innings at the Triple-A level, where he struck out 30 batters and walked just five. Cotham worked exclusively out of the bullpen between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015, totaling a 2.21 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He could potentially step directly into the Reds’ bullpen, where he’d bring a fastball that averaged 92.6 mph in his brief big league tenure this past season.

MLBTR concludes that  the Reds added mid-level prospects and an MLB-ready bullpen arm in exchange for one year of the game’s best closer. Some may think the return is somewhat disappointing in a vacuum, it’s clear that Chapman’s domestic violence allegations rightly lowered the asking price and prevented Cincinnati from maximizing his value in a trade. But in reality, the Reds did receive four (4) prospects with potential upsides to add depth to their minor league system.

The Reds ended last season with five rookie starting pitchers. The team is on a development track by quickly advancing prospects to the major leagues. In that type of environment, there is an incentive for players to work harder to get to the majors quicker - - - which can quickly mold a core of good, young players.