Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Alex Gordon have something in common. They are all outfielders and free agents in a market that seems to be moving at a glacier's pace.
The problem is valuation. What teams are willing to spend vs. a player's expectations. Skewed in the discussion was Jason Heyward's 8 year/$184 million contract (which is less because of the two opt out years). It really calculates to a 3 year/$85.5 million deal (including signing bonus) or a very high $28.5 million AAV.
Heyward, 26, had a 6.5 WAR in 2015 and was paid $7.5 million. His production value was $37.5 million last year. He was due a substantial raise.
Upton, 28, had a 4.4 WAR in 2015, and he was paid $14.5 million. His production value was $25 million last year.
Cespedes, 30, had a 6.3 WAR and was paid $10.5 million last season. His production value was $35.9 million.
Gordon, 31, had a down WAR (dropping from 6.6 to 2.8). He was paid $12.5 million last season. His production value was $15.96 million.
Age is clearly a factor. A player over the age of 30 is starting his decline (as evidenced by Gordon's last two seasons).
MLBTR estimated that Upton would receive $147 million, Cespedes $140 million and Gordon $105 million this off-season. With Heyward's deal moving the meter higher, there may be team push back at giving any of these players $25 million AAV.
Each of the free agents has issues. Upton has beenhaving a dropping batting average and inconsistent play. Cespedes has been on four teams in five years which leads some to speculate he may have clubhouse issues. Gordon is being productive more on the defensive end of the scale and GMs do not like to pay for defense alone.
Each player agent can argue that his client is good as Heyward so they should be in the $185 million contract range.
The market is further depressed because there has been no reported interest by any big market money teams (Yankees, Angels, Rangers) on any of these players. Even teams that lost out on the David Price sweepstakes, like the Cardinals, have not used that budget money on signing any of the free agent outfielders.
Which player will blink first and sign to re-set this outfield market?
