We have stated our preference that the Cubs pick a college third baseman with the #2 pick in the baseball draft. The reason is simple: the Cubs have no ready third base prospect to anchor the infield with Castro and Rizzo.
If the Astros pick UNC 3B Colin Moran first, then the Cubs could select the best power hitter in the draft in SD 3B Kris Bryant. The Cubs also lack consistent power on their major league roster. There is a glaring need to fill at third base.
But the sexy pick is always the hard throwing potential ace starting pitcher. But selecting pitchers are more prone to boom or bust. Besides, the Cubs stockpiled 17 pitchers in last year's draft and only one, Pierce Johnson, has made some progress in low Class A.
Besides, the Cubs claim a lack of depth in their pitching inventory. However, the major league roster is filled with under 30 pitchers who have a real major league track record of success: Garza, Samardzija, T. Wood, Feldman and Villanueva. If pitching is so hard to find and develop, why are the Cubs poised to trade off their most prized assets, starting pitching, for more prospects who may years away from reaching the majors (if at all). It would make more sense in "rebuilding" the franchise is to kept your quality starters, sign them to extensions, and shore up your position weaknesses.
Another critical reason why filling third base quickly with a long term solution is that third base is the anchor point for the infield. It is a power position. It is a key defensive position. You want to lock in a infield corps for long term success like the Dodgers did in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.
The Cubs need to solidify their infield immediately. A college third baseman playing at a high level of competition can finish this year in AA and play part of 2014 in AAA and be ready for major league duty by next year's trade deadline. The only way to speed up the rebuilding process is the draft quality college players who are ready to make the next jump in competition.
The final reason is that it appears that there will be a run on third basemen in the first round of the draft. It is projected that Bryant will be selected by the third pick. Moran should be gone by the fifth pick. Power hitting New Mexico third baseman D.J. Peterson is projected to be selected in the 11-21 range. Notre Dame third baseman Eric Jagielo will go from 24-32. The best high school third baseman, Travis Dementte will go between 34-37. Finally, Stephen F. Austin third baseman Hunter Dozier will go by the end of the supplemental first round, between 35-39.
By the time the Cubs pick next in the second round, there will be no "ready" first round talent at third will be left to choose. The next two third basemen project to be third to sixth round selections.
Chad Pinder is a 6'2" third basemen from Virginia Tech. He is leading his team through the NCAA tournament, recently hitting 2 HRs and 6 RBIs in an ACC tournament game. He hit .325 this year with 22 doubles and 114 total bases. A converted shortstop, he is known for above average defensive tools and leadership skills. Some scouts question is batting skills at a higher level. He is a junior, so he has the option of not signing, but most scouts believe that should not be an issue. He projects to be a third to 5th round selection.
Drew Dosch is also 6'2". He plays for Youngstown. His slash line is .338/.434/.488. He is classified as a hard nose, blue collar type player with a high baseball IQ. However, he is only an average defender. Many observers think his ceiling is that of a utility infielder. Also a junior, but he plays at a small school so if drafted he will probably sign. Scouts project him to be selected from the fourth to seven rounds.
Because of the drop off of third base talent after the first round, if the Cubs want to rebuild quicker (and there is a now a glaring need with yesterday's low attendance for the Diamondbacks opener) the Cubs must draft Byrant or Moran with their first draft pick.
Showing posts with label Moran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Moran. Show all posts
June 1, 2013
May 30, 2013
DRAFT STOCK
As any sports draft approaches, rumors and discussions of whose "draft stock" is rising is reported in the sports pages (or in the world of modern technology, tweets).
UNC third baseman Colin Moran is moving up draft boards and some say he might even go first overall to the Astros, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. However, Jonathan Gray, Mark Appel, and Kris Bryant are rated as the top three players in the draft by most scouting organizations.
If the Astros believe Moran is a more overall polished third baseman (offense and defense) than Bryant, and possibly cheaper from a signing bonus perspective, that would give the Cubs the best power hitter in the draft in Bryant. The Astros last season picked a high schooler with the first selection and unpaid the slot value in order conserve the draft budget to sign two other selections above their slot values. It gave them three signable high quality first round picks.
The word out of Iowa is that Josh Vitters is back on the DL. But the same reports indicate that Ian Stewart is still languishing on the bench. The Iowa Cubs have been playing utility infielders at third over Stewart. This means that the Cubs have basically given up on Stewart. He is no longer in the major league plans. It means that the Cubs are even more desperate to solve their third base sink hole.
It was unthinkable two weeks ago that two third basemen could be drafted 1-2, ahead of star pitchers Appel and Gray. As indicated in earlier posts, most scouts and draft rooms believe that drafting position players is less risk than drafting power pitchers. However, finding an ace starter is extremely hard to do so that is why the lure of finding the next Verlander, Strasburg, Kershaw or Darvish is so appealing to general managers.
There is no fast rule that a "can't miss" label on a draft choice will make the major league and have an excellent career, but both Bryant and Moran project to major league talent. Either could anchor third base for a team for a decade. When was the last time the Cubs had a fixture at third base? Aramis Ramirez? Bill Madlock? Ron Santo?!
So my view continues to be that the Cubs should select a third baseman with the #2 pick in this June's draft. If Moran is taken by the Astros, the Cubs should take Bryant. If Bryant is taken by the Astros, then the Cubs should pick Moran. If the Astros pick someone else, the Cubs should flip a coin between Bryant and Moran (I still favor Bryant for the power stats which is also lacking in the Cub lineup).
UPDATE: ESPN's Keith Law's latest mock draft has Moran being picked by the Astros #1. Law doesn't think Houston will make a formal decision on the pick until Thursday, but he reports that the buzz within the industry has them leaning towards Moran. Law goes on to explain the Astro's business draft model. Because Moran is on most draft boards going at around the No. 5 slot (worth $3.8 million) the Astros could offer Moran $4 million (more than he would have made at No. 5) and then use the $3 million in first slot savings to sign other picks later on in the first few rounds (who may have had signability issues) by overpaying their next slot values at #40 and #76.
Law also states that if the Astros took a pitcher like Gray, Houston wouldn't pocket much savings for their next few picks. Law states that the Astros are not interested in either Appel, or top rated high school outfielder Clint Frazier.
SECOND UPDATE:
Sports Illustrated posts this afternoon its latest mock draft by Dave Perkin, whose resume contains work as a professional baseball scout or the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers and Baseball America.
Perkin has Bryant going #1 to the Astros, followed by Gray to the Cubs, Appel to the Rockies and then Frazier to the Twins.
Perkin is using his knowledge and experience to pick his board while Law uses his experience and talking with teams and scouts to project who will be selected in the draft. There may be misinformation to conceal what is actually happening, either through team representatives (to hide targets) or by agents (trying to pump up their clients demand). What is emerging is that the Astros probably will not select a pitcher with the first pick.
UNC third baseman Colin Moran is moving up draft boards and some say he might even go first overall to the Astros, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. However, Jonathan Gray, Mark Appel, and Kris Bryant are rated as the top three players in the draft by most scouting organizations.
If the Astros believe Moran is a more overall polished third baseman (offense and defense) than Bryant, and possibly cheaper from a signing bonus perspective, that would give the Cubs the best power hitter in the draft in Bryant. The Astros last season picked a high schooler with the first selection and unpaid the slot value in order conserve the draft budget to sign two other selections above their slot values. It gave them three signable high quality first round picks.
The word out of Iowa is that Josh Vitters is back on the DL. But the same reports indicate that Ian Stewart is still languishing on the bench. The Iowa Cubs have been playing utility infielders at third over Stewart. This means that the Cubs have basically given up on Stewart. He is no longer in the major league plans. It means that the Cubs are even more desperate to solve their third base sink hole.
It was unthinkable two weeks ago that two third basemen could be drafted 1-2, ahead of star pitchers Appel and Gray. As indicated in earlier posts, most scouts and draft rooms believe that drafting position players is less risk than drafting power pitchers. However, finding an ace starter is extremely hard to do so that is why the lure of finding the next Verlander, Strasburg, Kershaw or Darvish is so appealing to general managers.
There is no fast rule that a "can't miss" label on a draft choice will make the major league and have an excellent career, but both Bryant and Moran project to major league talent. Either could anchor third base for a team for a decade. When was the last time the Cubs had a fixture at third base? Aramis Ramirez? Bill Madlock? Ron Santo?!
So my view continues to be that the Cubs should select a third baseman with the #2 pick in this June's draft. If Moran is taken by the Astros, the Cubs should take Bryant. If Bryant is taken by the Astros, then the Cubs should pick Moran. If the Astros pick someone else, the Cubs should flip a coin between Bryant and Moran (I still favor Bryant for the power stats which is also lacking in the Cub lineup).
UPDATE: ESPN's Keith Law's latest mock draft has Moran being picked by the Astros #1. Law doesn't think Houston will make a formal decision on the pick until Thursday, but he reports that the buzz within the industry has them leaning towards Moran. Law goes on to explain the Astro's business draft model. Because Moran is on most draft boards going at around the No. 5 slot (worth $3.8 million) the Astros could offer Moran $4 million (more than he would have made at No. 5) and then use the $3 million in first slot savings to sign other picks later on in the first few rounds (who may have had signability issues) by overpaying their next slot values at #40 and #76.
Law also states that if the Astros took a pitcher like Gray, Houston wouldn't pocket much savings for their next few picks. Law states that the Astros are not interested in either Appel, or top rated high school outfielder Clint Frazier.
SECOND UPDATE:
Sports Illustrated posts this afternoon its latest mock draft by Dave Perkin, whose resume contains work as a professional baseball scout or the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers and Baseball America.
Perkin has Bryant going #1 to the Astros, followed by Gray to the Cubs, Appel to the Rockies and then Frazier to the Twins.
Perkin is using his knowledge and experience to pick his board while Law uses his experience and talking with teams and scouts to project who will be selected in the draft. There may be misinformation to conceal what is actually happening, either through team representatives (to hide targets) or by agents (trying to pump up their clients demand). What is emerging is that the Astros probably will not select a pitcher with the first pick.
May 24, 2013
PLAN B
A report indicates that the Astros are talking to "a hitter" as they prepare to select the first pick in the June baseball draft. A hitter could mean San Diego 3B Kris Bryant, the best power hitter in the draft, or one of the two highly regarded high school outfielders. Depending on the time line of the Astros front office (now to be run by Nolan Ryan's son), a high impact long term position player makes sense.
If Bryant is selected by the Astros, it would mean that the top two pitchers in the draft are too expensive for the risk-reward analysis. This would mean Bryant would not be there for the Cubs,who select second.
Conventional wisdom is that the Cubs will have a choice of the two pitchers, Appel or Gray.
But for my money, the Cubs pressing need is to fill the organization hole at third base. If Bryant is gone, the second best college third baseman is North Carolina's Colin Moran. Moran, 21, is the 6'4" nephew of former major leaguer B.J. Surhoff. Moran was ACC player of the year. He does not have the power of Bryant, but he is scouted as a better defensive player. This season he hit .358, 13 homers, a .612 slugging percentage and 83 RBI.
Many draft boards have Bryant #5 and Moran #6 best overall players. The consensus is that Moran will be a top ten pick.
If Bryant is selected number one by Houston, my Plan B would have the Cubs select Moran.
If Bryant is selected by the Astros, it would mean that the top two pitchers in the draft are too expensive for the risk-reward analysis. This would mean Bryant would not be there for the Cubs,who select second.
Conventional wisdom is that the Cubs will have a choice of the two pitchers, Appel or Gray.
But for my money, the Cubs pressing need is to fill the organization hole at third base. If Bryant is gone, the second best college third baseman is North Carolina's Colin Moran. Moran, 21, is the 6'4" nephew of former major leaguer B.J. Surhoff. Moran was ACC player of the year. He does not have the power of Bryant, but he is scouted as a better defensive player. This season he hit .358, 13 homers, a .612 slugging percentage and 83 RBI.
Many draft boards have Bryant #5 and Moran #6 best overall players. The consensus is that Moran will be a top ten pick.
If Bryant is selected number one by Houston, my Plan B would have the Cubs select Moran.
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