Mike Olt was once the most prized prospect in the Rangers organization.
But after an odd eye injury in winter ball, his stock faded dramatically. He was traded to the Cubs, and he had a miserable year in the minors. For three different teams, he hit only .201, with 15 HRs and 45 RBIs. His field percentage at third base was a lowly .919.
At age 25, he is no longer a young prospect. He has spent most of spring training at DH due to a new "shoulder" injury/issue. He has hit .333 with 3 HRs and 6 RBI in spring training, but those numbers as fans are well aware, can be deceiving because it is spring training and not actual major league games.
In 16 games with 40 plate appearances in 2012, Olt hit only .152 with 0 HR and 5 RBI for the Rangers.
People want to believe that Olt is a better solution to the Cubs third base woes than another season of Luis Valbuena or Donnie Murphy. Olt does have home run potential, but injuries and fielding issues are real concerns. The front office really wants Olt to win the third base job, because it would validate one of their recent trades.
But no matter what happens, Olt is probably still only a caretaker at third until Kris Bryant is ready.
Showing posts with label third base. Show all posts
Showing posts with label third base. Show all posts
March 15, 2014
December 23, 2013
THE GHOST OF RONNIE
The Cubs have not had a long term solution for third base since Ron Santo retired.
Some say the Cubs now have stock piled third base prospects in the minors which may suddenly cause too much competition for the spot.
Many scouts probject Kris Bryant as a corner outfielder when he reaches the majors, but the Cubs have many other options in the pipeline as well (Soler, Lake, Baez potentially). However, Bryant's college coach told teams he believes Bryant is capable of playing the position.
Some other people thought that the Cubs found their solution(s) with recent trades with the Rangers, but others believed the Cubs may have been snookered by Texas. Mike Olt ended last year at AAA, but he continues to struggle at the plate with possible visions issues. Christian Villanueva was supposed to be the hot prospect, but he ended at AA and not has progressed as fast as his press clippings. Kris Bryant dominated in his first rookie season, ending at high A. There is no reason not to fast track Byrant to AA in 2014. Holdover Jeimer Candelario has kept off the radar, ended last season at low A.
The best third baseman of the bunch could actually wind up to the Baez. But the team has continued to keep Baez at shortstop. This may be a clue that the front office is still on the fence on Starlin Castro, even though they signed him to a long term extension. As I speculated, Castro's contract could easily be traded to a team like the Yankees after Derek Jeter retires. But if the Cubs keep Castro, then Baez will need to move either to third or second (which would be a harder transition) or play the outfield.
The team will not have to make the hard decisions if Olt wins the third base job in spring training. It would buy the Cubs another year to sort out where their prospects best fit major league needs. But there has been nothing shown to make the case that Olt is going to play better than the Valbuena-Murphy platoon.
Some say the Cubs now have stock piled third base prospects in the minors which may suddenly cause too much competition for the spot.
Many scouts probject Kris Bryant as a corner outfielder when he reaches the majors, but the Cubs have many other options in the pipeline as well (Soler, Lake, Baez potentially). However, Bryant's college coach told teams he believes Bryant is capable of playing the position.
Some other people thought that the Cubs found their solution(s) with recent trades with the Rangers, but others believed the Cubs may have been snookered by Texas. Mike Olt ended last year at AAA, but he continues to struggle at the plate with possible visions issues. Christian Villanueva was supposed to be the hot prospect, but he ended at AA and not has progressed as fast as his press clippings. Kris Bryant dominated in his first rookie season, ending at high A. There is no reason not to fast track Byrant to AA in 2014. Holdover Jeimer Candelario has kept off the radar, ended last season at low A.
The best third baseman of the bunch could actually wind up to the Baez. But the team has continued to keep Baez at shortstop. This may be a clue that the front office is still on the fence on Starlin Castro, even though they signed him to a long term extension. As I speculated, Castro's contract could easily be traded to a team like the Yankees after Derek Jeter retires. But if the Cubs keep Castro, then Baez will need to move either to third or second (which would be a harder transition) or play the outfield.
The team will not have to make the hard decisions if Olt wins the third base job in spring training. It would buy the Cubs another year to sort out where their prospects best fit major league needs. But there has been nothing shown to make the case that Olt is going to play better than the Valbuena-Murphy platoon.
September 11, 2013
PRODUCTION AT THIRD
There was a comment that the Cubs have gotten good production out of their third base platoon this season (Valbuena, Ransom, Murphy).
As of today, this is how the platoon fared:
Valbuena: 301 AB, 69 H, 11 HR, 1 SB, .229 BA, 1.7 WAR
Ransom: 158 AB, 32 H, 9 HR, 20 RBI, 0 SB, .203 BA, 0.9 WAR
Murphy: 110 AB, 31 H, 10 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB, .282 BA, 1.4 WAR
Total: 569 AB, 132 H, 30 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB, .232 BA, 4.0 WAR
Individually, none of the Cub third sackers are in the Top 20 MLB Third Basemen.
Collectively, the platoon would rank amongst in those Top 20 players:
#1 in AB
#11 in Hits
#3 in HR
#5 in RBI
#18 in BA
#10 in SB
#8 in WAR
22.7 percent of the hits were home runs. It is an all or nothing approach.
By comparison to the last full time starter at third, Aramis Ramirez, who had an injury shortened season, played in 78 games, 265 AB, 73 H, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 2.85 BA, 0 SB, 0.2 WAR. Most executives would still say A-Ram is a better third baseman than the Cubs platoon.
Ramirez HR percentage of hits is 13.6 percent.
If one gives Ramirez stat line a 144 game projection as a current full season, Ramirez would have 15 HR, 58 RBI, .285 BA. That would put him around #11 or #12 best MLB third baseman this year.
As of today, this is how the platoon fared:
Valbuena: 301 AB, 69 H, 11 HR, 1 SB, .229 BA, 1.7 WAR
Ransom: 158 AB, 32 H, 9 HR, 20 RBI, 0 SB, .203 BA, 0.9 WAR
Murphy: 110 AB, 31 H, 10 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB, .282 BA, 1.4 WAR
Total: 569 AB, 132 H, 30 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB, .232 BA, 4.0 WAR
Individually, none of the Cub third sackers are in the Top 20 MLB Third Basemen.
Collectively, the platoon would rank amongst in those Top 20 players:
#1 in AB
#11 in Hits
#3 in HR
#5 in RBI
#18 in BA
#10 in SB
#8 in WAR
22.7 percent of the hits were home runs. It is an all or nothing approach.
By comparison to the last full time starter at third, Aramis Ramirez, who had an injury shortened season, played in 78 games, 265 AB, 73 H, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 2.85 BA, 0 SB, 0.2 WAR. Most executives would still say A-Ram is a better third baseman than the Cubs platoon.
Ramirez HR percentage of hits is 13.6 percent.
If one gives Ramirez stat line a 144 game projection as a current full season, Ramirez would have 15 HR, 58 RBI, .285 BA. That would put him around #11 or #12 best MLB third baseman this year.
June 1, 2013
READY THIRD BASEMAN
We have stated our preference that the Cubs pick a college third baseman with the #2 pick in the baseball draft. The reason is simple: the Cubs have no ready third base prospect to anchor the infield with Castro and Rizzo.
If the Astros pick UNC 3B Colin Moran first, then the Cubs could select the best power hitter in the draft in SD 3B Kris Bryant. The Cubs also lack consistent power on their major league roster. There is a glaring need to fill at third base.
But the sexy pick is always the hard throwing potential ace starting pitcher. But selecting pitchers are more prone to boom or bust. Besides, the Cubs stockpiled 17 pitchers in last year's draft and only one, Pierce Johnson, has made some progress in low Class A.
Besides, the Cubs claim a lack of depth in their pitching inventory. However, the major league roster is filled with under 30 pitchers who have a real major league track record of success: Garza, Samardzija, T. Wood, Feldman and Villanueva. If pitching is so hard to find and develop, why are the Cubs poised to trade off their most prized assets, starting pitching, for more prospects who may years away from reaching the majors (if at all). It would make more sense in "rebuilding" the franchise is to kept your quality starters, sign them to extensions, and shore up your position weaknesses.
Another critical reason why filling third base quickly with a long term solution is that third base is the anchor point for the infield. It is a power position. It is a key defensive position. You want to lock in a infield corps for long term success like the Dodgers did in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.
The Cubs need to solidify their infield immediately. A college third baseman playing at a high level of competition can finish this year in AA and play part of 2014 in AAA and be ready for major league duty by next year's trade deadline. The only way to speed up the rebuilding process is the draft quality college players who are ready to make the next jump in competition.
The final reason is that it appears that there will be a run on third basemen in the first round of the draft. It is projected that Bryant will be selected by the third pick. Moran should be gone by the fifth pick. Power hitting New Mexico third baseman D.J. Peterson is projected to be selected in the 11-21 range. Notre Dame third baseman Eric Jagielo will go from 24-32. The best high school third baseman, Travis Dementte will go between 34-37. Finally, Stephen F. Austin third baseman Hunter Dozier will go by the end of the supplemental first round, between 35-39.
By the time the Cubs pick next in the second round, there will be no "ready" first round talent at third will be left to choose. The next two third basemen project to be third to sixth round selections.
Chad Pinder is a 6'2" third basemen from Virginia Tech. He is leading his team through the NCAA tournament, recently hitting 2 HRs and 6 RBIs in an ACC tournament game. He hit .325 this year with 22 doubles and 114 total bases. A converted shortstop, he is known for above average defensive tools and leadership skills. Some scouts question is batting skills at a higher level. He is a junior, so he has the option of not signing, but most scouts believe that should not be an issue. He projects to be a third to 5th round selection.
Drew Dosch is also 6'2". He plays for Youngstown. His slash line is .338/.434/.488. He is classified as a hard nose, blue collar type player with a high baseball IQ. However, he is only an average defender. Many observers think his ceiling is that of a utility infielder. Also a junior, but he plays at a small school so if drafted he will probably sign. Scouts project him to be selected from the fourth to seven rounds.
Because of the drop off of third base talent after the first round, if the Cubs want to rebuild quicker (and there is a now a glaring need with yesterday's low attendance for the Diamondbacks opener) the Cubs must draft Byrant or Moran with their first draft pick.
If the Astros pick UNC 3B Colin Moran first, then the Cubs could select the best power hitter in the draft in SD 3B Kris Bryant. The Cubs also lack consistent power on their major league roster. There is a glaring need to fill at third base.
But the sexy pick is always the hard throwing potential ace starting pitcher. But selecting pitchers are more prone to boom or bust. Besides, the Cubs stockpiled 17 pitchers in last year's draft and only one, Pierce Johnson, has made some progress in low Class A.
Besides, the Cubs claim a lack of depth in their pitching inventory. However, the major league roster is filled with under 30 pitchers who have a real major league track record of success: Garza, Samardzija, T. Wood, Feldman and Villanueva. If pitching is so hard to find and develop, why are the Cubs poised to trade off their most prized assets, starting pitching, for more prospects who may years away from reaching the majors (if at all). It would make more sense in "rebuilding" the franchise is to kept your quality starters, sign them to extensions, and shore up your position weaknesses.
Another critical reason why filling third base quickly with a long term solution is that third base is the anchor point for the infield. It is a power position. It is a key defensive position. You want to lock in a infield corps for long term success like the Dodgers did in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.
The Cubs need to solidify their infield immediately. A college third baseman playing at a high level of competition can finish this year in AA and play part of 2014 in AAA and be ready for major league duty by next year's trade deadline. The only way to speed up the rebuilding process is the draft quality college players who are ready to make the next jump in competition.
The final reason is that it appears that there will be a run on third basemen in the first round of the draft. It is projected that Bryant will be selected by the third pick. Moran should be gone by the fifth pick. Power hitting New Mexico third baseman D.J. Peterson is projected to be selected in the 11-21 range. Notre Dame third baseman Eric Jagielo will go from 24-32. The best high school third baseman, Travis Dementte will go between 34-37. Finally, Stephen F. Austin third baseman Hunter Dozier will go by the end of the supplemental first round, between 35-39.
By the time the Cubs pick next in the second round, there will be no "ready" first round talent at third will be left to choose. The next two third basemen project to be third to sixth round selections.
Chad Pinder is a 6'2" third basemen from Virginia Tech. He is leading his team through the NCAA tournament, recently hitting 2 HRs and 6 RBIs in an ACC tournament game. He hit .325 this year with 22 doubles and 114 total bases. A converted shortstop, he is known for above average defensive tools and leadership skills. Some scouts question is batting skills at a higher level. He is a junior, so he has the option of not signing, but most scouts believe that should not be an issue. He projects to be a third to 5th round selection.
Drew Dosch is also 6'2". He plays for Youngstown. His slash line is .338/.434/.488. He is classified as a hard nose, blue collar type player with a high baseball IQ. However, he is only an average defender. Many observers think his ceiling is that of a utility infielder. Also a junior, but he plays at a small school so if drafted he will probably sign. Scouts project him to be selected from the fourth to seven rounds.
Because of the drop off of third base talent after the first round, if the Cubs want to rebuild quicker (and there is a now a glaring need with yesterday's low attendance for the Diamondbacks opener) the Cubs must draft Byrant or Moran with their first draft pick.
May 30, 2013
DRAFT STOCK
As any sports draft approaches, rumors and discussions of whose "draft stock" is rising is reported in the sports pages (or in the world of modern technology, tweets).
UNC third baseman Colin Moran is moving up draft boards and some say he might even go first overall to the Astros, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. However, Jonathan Gray, Mark Appel, and Kris Bryant are rated as the top three players in the draft by most scouting organizations.
If the Astros believe Moran is a more overall polished third baseman (offense and defense) than Bryant, and possibly cheaper from a signing bonus perspective, that would give the Cubs the best power hitter in the draft in Bryant. The Astros last season picked a high schooler with the first selection and unpaid the slot value in order conserve the draft budget to sign two other selections above their slot values. It gave them three signable high quality first round picks.
The word out of Iowa is that Josh Vitters is back on the DL. But the same reports indicate that Ian Stewart is still languishing on the bench. The Iowa Cubs have been playing utility infielders at third over Stewart. This means that the Cubs have basically given up on Stewart. He is no longer in the major league plans. It means that the Cubs are even more desperate to solve their third base sink hole.
It was unthinkable two weeks ago that two third basemen could be drafted 1-2, ahead of star pitchers Appel and Gray. As indicated in earlier posts, most scouts and draft rooms believe that drafting position players is less risk than drafting power pitchers. However, finding an ace starter is extremely hard to do so that is why the lure of finding the next Verlander, Strasburg, Kershaw or Darvish is so appealing to general managers.
There is no fast rule that a "can't miss" label on a draft choice will make the major league and have an excellent career, but both Bryant and Moran project to major league talent. Either could anchor third base for a team for a decade. When was the last time the Cubs had a fixture at third base? Aramis Ramirez? Bill Madlock? Ron Santo?!
So my view continues to be that the Cubs should select a third baseman with the #2 pick in this June's draft. If Moran is taken by the Astros, the Cubs should take Bryant. If Bryant is taken by the Astros, then the Cubs should pick Moran. If the Astros pick someone else, the Cubs should flip a coin between Bryant and Moran (I still favor Bryant for the power stats which is also lacking in the Cub lineup).
UPDATE: ESPN's Keith Law's latest mock draft has Moran being picked by the Astros #1. Law doesn't think Houston will make a formal decision on the pick until Thursday, but he reports that the buzz within the industry has them leaning towards Moran. Law goes on to explain the Astro's business draft model. Because Moran is on most draft boards going at around the No. 5 slot (worth $3.8 million) the Astros could offer Moran $4 million (more than he would have made at No. 5) and then use the $3 million in first slot savings to sign other picks later on in the first few rounds (who may have had signability issues) by overpaying their next slot values at #40 and #76.
Law also states that if the Astros took a pitcher like Gray, Houston wouldn't pocket much savings for their next few picks. Law states that the Astros are not interested in either Appel, or top rated high school outfielder Clint Frazier.
SECOND UPDATE:
Sports Illustrated posts this afternoon its latest mock draft by Dave Perkin, whose resume contains work as a professional baseball scout or the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers and Baseball America.
Perkin has Bryant going #1 to the Astros, followed by Gray to the Cubs, Appel to the Rockies and then Frazier to the Twins.
Perkin is using his knowledge and experience to pick his board while Law uses his experience and talking with teams and scouts to project who will be selected in the draft. There may be misinformation to conceal what is actually happening, either through team representatives (to hide targets) or by agents (trying to pump up their clients demand). What is emerging is that the Astros probably will not select a pitcher with the first pick.
UNC third baseman Colin Moran is moving up draft boards and some say he might even go first overall to the Astros, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. However, Jonathan Gray, Mark Appel, and Kris Bryant are rated as the top three players in the draft by most scouting organizations.
If the Astros believe Moran is a more overall polished third baseman (offense and defense) than Bryant, and possibly cheaper from a signing bonus perspective, that would give the Cubs the best power hitter in the draft in Bryant. The Astros last season picked a high schooler with the first selection and unpaid the slot value in order conserve the draft budget to sign two other selections above their slot values. It gave them three signable high quality first round picks.
The word out of Iowa is that Josh Vitters is back on the DL. But the same reports indicate that Ian Stewart is still languishing on the bench. The Iowa Cubs have been playing utility infielders at third over Stewart. This means that the Cubs have basically given up on Stewart. He is no longer in the major league plans. It means that the Cubs are even more desperate to solve their third base sink hole.
It was unthinkable two weeks ago that two third basemen could be drafted 1-2, ahead of star pitchers Appel and Gray. As indicated in earlier posts, most scouts and draft rooms believe that drafting position players is less risk than drafting power pitchers. However, finding an ace starter is extremely hard to do so that is why the lure of finding the next Verlander, Strasburg, Kershaw or Darvish is so appealing to general managers.
There is no fast rule that a "can't miss" label on a draft choice will make the major league and have an excellent career, but both Bryant and Moran project to major league talent. Either could anchor third base for a team for a decade. When was the last time the Cubs had a fixture at third base? Aramis Ramirez? Bill Madlock? Ron Santo?!
So my view continues to be that the Cubs should select a third baseman with the #2 pick in this June's draft. If Moran is taken by the Astros, the Cubs should take Bryant. If Bryant is taken by the Astros, then the Cubs should pick Moran. If the Astros pick someone else, the Cubs should flip a coin between Bryant and Moran (I still favor Bryant for the power stats which is also lacking in the Cub lineup).
UPDATE: ESPN's Keith Law's latest mock draft has Moran being picked by the Astros #1. Law doesn't think Houston will make a formal decision on the pick until Thursday, but he reports that the buzz within the industry has them leaning towards Moran. Law goes on to explain the Astro's business draft model. Because Moran is on most draft boards going at around the No. 5 slot (worth $3.8 million) the Astros could offer Moran $4 million (more than he would have made at No. 5) and then use the $3 million in first slot savings to sign other picks later on in the first few rounds (who may have had signability issues) by overpaying their next slot values at #40 and #76.
Law also states that if the Astros took a pitcher like Gray, Houston wouldn't pocket much savings for their next few picks. Law states that the Astros are not interested in either Appel, or top rated high school outfielder Clint Frazier.
SECOND UPDATE:
Sports Illustrated posts this afternoon its latest mock draft by Dave Perkin, whose resume contains work as a professional baseball scout or the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers and Baseball America.
Perkin has Bryant going #1 to the Astros, followed by Gray to the Cubs, Appel to the Rockies and then Frazier to the Twins.
Perkin is using his knowledge and experience to pick his board while Law uses his experience and talking with teams and scouts to project who will be selected in the draft. There may be misinformation to conceal what is actually happening, either through team representatives (to hide targets) or by agents (trying to pump up their clients demand). What is emerging is that the Astros probably will not select a pitcher with the first pick.
April 19, 2013
JUNE DRAFT CRYSTAL BALL
The pundits are beginning in earnest to gear up for baseball's June draft. Now that the new CBA has limited the amount of money teams can spend on signing amateur and international talent, it becomes more critical than ever to select the right player at the right price.
The Cubs have the second overall pick in the draft. The Astros have the first selection.
ESPN's Keith Law believes that Stanford's Mark Appel and Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray are the top two pitchers in this year's draft. The Astros attempted to negotiate with Appel before the 2012 draft, but Appel wanted above slot bonus money. Instead, the Astros used the top pick to draft a high school player then overspend on their next two selections, in effect, giving the Astros three first round talents for the price of one.
The Cubs Theo Epstein was used to overspending without any caps when he was in Boston. That franchise believed that money can pave over mistakes. But the fans are looking for results not talk. Drafting starting pitchers is like drafting touted quarterbacks in the NFL: you never can tell. The Cubs drafted Hayden Simpson a few years ago with their top pick, and now Simpson is not in baseball. He did not pitch at all last season. He was an overreach and a bust.
So many columnists believe that Appel is the best player available, it makes one to pause. As a team, are you going to overpay for a pitcher or try to get more balance in the early rounds? Appel is out of options as he cannot go back to college. In theory he could play internationally, but the money and programs would not be the same as American baseball. He could sit out a year then try to sign with another club, but that would be a diva move that most teams would want to avoid. However, there was one report that Appel still has some "leverage" in that any team that drafts him must have a deal in place otherwise they can't "over slot" their following selections because the penalty for overspending is losing valuable picks next year. But logically, a team can tell any first round draft choice "this is what we are paying, take it or leave it." If the player goes unsigned, the team gets a compensation pick next year. So it would appear Appel will have little leverage.
But in pro sports, money equals respect and some team will try to calm the waters and give him some "respect" and overslot him. But that does not mean Appel will be happy.
So if Houston passes on Appel, then he falls to the Cubs. And this is where it gets interesting. Though the Cubs are not as bad as the Astros, they are close. Epstein has been bellowing that he inherited a minor league system devoid of talent. He has no pitching prospects in the high minors. So scouts believe the Cubs must pick the best available starter and pray for Strasburg type immediate returns.
That would be if the Cubs want to win now. But the Cubs don't want to win now. The Cubs want to pare back the payroll to help pay for the Wrigley Field entertainment complex. The projection for having a competitive, play-off caliber team has now moved out to 2015 and beyond.
It was reported that the Cubs had their short list of players whittled down to six. The consensus speculation is Appel, Gray, college LHP Sean Manaea, high school outfielders, Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows. The sixth could be collegiate pitching prospect Ryne Stanek, or San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant.
The Cubs have enough new outfielders in their system for now to draft a high school player. As we posted before, Bryant has the best power bat in the draft. He also would fill an immediate critical need at third base. The other potential third base first round talent is North Carolina's Colin Moran, who has the most fluid, natural swing in the draft according to some scouting services.
My call is that the Cubs draft Bryant to address the needs at third and taking a power bat. The Cubs drafted 17 pitchers in last year's draft so if you trust Epstein and Hoyer's talent evaluation judgment, then other critical areas need to be addressed now. Also, for many scouts, projecting position players is easier than projecting pitchers since there are more variables that can go wrong with a pitching prospect.
ESPN's Keith Law believes that Stanford's Mark Appel and Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray are the top two pitchers in this year's draft. The Astros attempted to negotiate with Appel before the 2012 draft, but Appel wanted above slot bonus money. Instead, the Astros used the top pick to draft a high school player then overspend on their next two selections, in effect, giving the Astros three first round talents for the price of one.
The Cubs Theo Epstein was used to overspending without any caps when he was in Boston. That franchise believed that money can pave over mistakes. But the fans are looking for results not talk. Drafting starting pitchers is like drafting touted quarterbacks in the NFL: you never can tell. The Cubs drafted Hayden Simpson a few years ago with their top pick, and now Simpson is not in baseball. He did not pitch at all last season. He was an overreach and a bust.
So many columnists believe that Appel is the best player available, it makes one to pause. As a team, are you going to overpay for a pitcher or try to get more balance in the early rounds? Appel is out of options as he cannot go back to college. In theory he could play internationally, but the money and programs would not be the same as American baseball. He could sit out a year then try to sign with another club, but that would be a diva move that most teams would want to avoid. However, there was one report that Appel still has some "leverage" in that any team that drafts him must have a deal in place otherwise they can't "over slot" their following selections because the penalty for overspending is losing valuable picks next year. But logically, a team can tell any first round draft choice "this is what we are paying, take it or leave it." If the player goes unsigned, the team gets a compensation pick next year. So it would appear Appel will have little leverage.
But in pro sports, money equals respect and some team will try to calm the waters and give him some "respect" and overslot him. But that does not mean Appel will be happy.
So if Houston passes on Appel, then he falls to the Cubs. And this is where it gets interesting. Though the Cubs are not as bad as the Astros, they are close. Epstein has been bellowing that he inherited a minor league system devoid of talent. He has no pitching prospects in the high minors. So scouts believe the Cubs must pick the best available starter and pray for Strasburg type immediate returns.
That would be if the Cubs want to win now. But the Cubs don't want to win now. The Cubs want to pare back the payroll to help pay for the Wrigley Field entertainment complex. The projection for having a competitive, play-off caliber team has now moved out to 2015 and beyond.
It was reported that the Cubs had their short list of players whittled down to six. The consensus speculation is Appel, Gray, college LHP Sean Manaea, high school outfielders, Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows. The sixth could be collegiate pitching prospect Ryne Stanek, or San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant.
The Cubs have enough new outfielders in their system for now to draft a high school player. As we posted before, Bryant has the best power bat in the draft. He also would fill an immediate critical need at third base. The other potential third base first round talent is North Carolina's Colin Moran, who has the most fluid, natural swing in the draft according to some scouting services.
My call is that the Cubs draft Bryant to address the needs at third and taking a power bat. The Cubs drafted 17 pitchers in last year's draft so if you trust Epstein and Hoyer's talent evaluation judgment, then other critical areas need to be addressed now. Also, for many scouts, projecting position players is easier than projecting pitchers since there are more variables that can go wrong with a pitching prospect.
February 25, 2013
WHO'S ON THIRD?
Both Ian Stewart and Josh Vitters have gone down with lateral strains. Both are expected to be out at least two weeks. Vitters had been slated to start the season in AAA Iowa. Stewart was signed to win the third base job.
As the Cubs website reported:
Cubs manager Dale Sveum said injured third baseman Ian Stewart should have enough time to prepare for the regular season but that the team now will get a look at the other options on the roster.
Both Stewart and third baseman Josh Vitters are sidelined 10 to 14 days with strained left quads. Luis Valbuena, Junior Lake and Christian Villanueva will get most of the playing time at third now.
"It sounds like both [Stewart] and Vitters, at the earliest, will be on the field in two weeks, but realistically three weeks," Sveum said. "It's unfortunate for them. There will still be a fair enough amount of games left after that to get enough at-bats and evaluate."
The Cubs do face some decisions regarding Stewart. His $2 million contract is non-guaranteed, which is not unusual for an arbitration-level player, but there is a March 16 deadline. If the Cubs decide at that date that Stewart isn't ready, they can release him and will be obligated to pay one-sixth of his salary ($333,333). If he's released after that date and before the regular season opener, the Cubs would owe Stewart $500,000.
"The fact of the matter is, three weeks from now puts you basically at March 14, which puts you three weeks before Opening Day," Sveum said. "If he's capable and the leg is fine, it'll be a cram session, that's for sure."
Valbuena, 27, already has secured a spot on the 25-man roster and impressed Sveum with his defensive play. On Saturday, he hit a solo home run in the second inning, his second in as many days if you count Friday's intrasquad game. He batted .306 in Venezuela this winter, taking a more aggressive approach at the plate.
What if he was the Cubs' Opening Day starter at third?
"It's not my decision," Valbuena said. "I'd be so happy if I won that job. That's what I'm trying to do."
Lake, 22, who batted .279 at Double-A Tennessee last season, would be next in the pecking order.
"In the intrasquad games, he's done fine," Sveum said of Lake. "He hasn't been tested. There's some mechanical things. He's very tall and playing tall. He's got to play the position smaller. What I mean by that, he wants to stand straight up after he fields a ground ball, so there's some things we have to tweak.
"He's such a good athlete," Sveum said. "He's going to be one of those third basemen who's not going to look like Scott Rolen but the athleticism will allow him to do a lot of things at that position."
Villanueva, 21, played at Class A Daytona last year. There are no plans to move top prospect Javier Baez from short to third, Sveum said. Right now, it's wait and see.
"We really don't have a whole lot of other third basemen," Sveum said. "They both just went down."
In the last post, we commented on the Cubs lack of depth problem, especially at third base. The problem is now a full blown crisis. Valbuena is now the default starter. He brings little offense to the power position. Vitters stock is falling more than Apple. The idea of "rushing" Lake up the depth chart is a dangerous risk. First, he has only reached AA. Second, he is a shortstop. You would be coverting him to another position on short notice.
As odd as it sounds, the final decision may come down to money. The Cubs may want to cut their losses on Stewart and pay him the $333,333 for him to leave. That would open up a roster spot for a utility player like Brent Lillibridge, who would probably sign for the league veteran minimum.
As the Cubs website reported:
Cubs manager Dale Sveum said injured third baseman Ian Stewart should have enough time to prepare for the regular season but that the team now will get a look at the other options on the roster.
Both Stewart and third baseman Josh Vitters are sidelined 10 to 14 days with strained left quads. Luis Valbuena, Junior Lake and Christian Villanueva will get most of the playing time at third now.
"It sounds like both [Stewart] and Vitters, at the earliest, will be on the field in two weeks, but realistically three weeks," Sveum said. "It's unfortunate for them. There will still be a fair enough amount of games left after that to get enough at-bats and evaluate."
The Cubs do face some decisions regarding Stewart. His $2 million contract is non-guaranteed, which is not unusual for an arbitration-level player, but there is a March 16 deadline. If the Cubs decide at that date that Stewart isn't ready, they can release him and will be obligated to pay one-sixth of his salary ($333,333). If he's released after that date and before the regular season opener, the Cubs would owe Stewart $500,000.
"The fact of the matter is, three weeks from now puts you basically at March 14, which puts you three weeks before Opening Day," Sveum said. "If he's capable and the leg is fine, it'll be a cram session, that's for sure."
Valbuena, 27, already has secured a spot on the 25-man roster and impressed Sveum with his defensive play. On Saturday, he hit a solo home run in the second inning, his second in as many days if you count Friday's intrasquad game. He batted .306 in Venezuela this winter, taking a more aggressive approach at the plate.
What if he was the Cubs' Opening Day starter at third?
"It's not my decision," Valbuena said. "I'd be so happy if I won that job. That's what I'm trying to do."
Lake, 22, who batted .279 at Double-A Tennessee last season, would be next in the pecking order.
"In the intrasquad games, he's done fine," Sveum said of Lake. "He hasn't been tested. There's some mechanical things. He's very tall and playing tall. He's got to play the position smaller. What I mean by that, he wants to stand straight up after he fields a ground ball, so there's some things we have to tweak.
"He's such a good athlete," Sveum said. "He's going to be one of those third basemen who's not going to look like Scott Rolen but the athleticism will allow him to do a lot of things at that position."
Villanueva, 21, played at Class A Daytona last year. There are no plans to move top prospect Javier Baez from short to third, Sveum said. Right now, it's wait and see.
"We really don't have a whole lot of other third basemen," Sveum said. "They both just went down."
In the last post, we commented on the Cubs lack of depth problem, especially at third base. The problem is now a full blown crisis. Valbuena is now the default starter. He brings little offense to the power position. Vitters stock is falling more than Apple. The idea of "rushing" Lake up the depth chart is a dangerous risk. First, he has only reached AA. Second, he is a shortstop. You would be coverting him to another position on short notice.
As odd as it sounds, the final decision may come down to money. The Cubs may want to cut their losses on Stewart and pay him the $333,333 for him to leave. That would open up a roster spot for a utility player like Brent Lillibridge, who would probably sign for the league veteran minimum.
February 23, 2013
DIFFERENT MOVES
There is a clear difference between how Chicago baseball teams view their spring training. One is proactive, the other is staid.
As camp opened, the Cubs third base corps was a mess. Ian Stewart and Josh Vitters both strained their lat muscles. Stewart, coming off wrist surgery and a busted 2012 season, had an MRI and may miss some time. Vitters injury appears to be less severe. However, when one looks at the entire organizational chart, only Luis Valbuena remains as a third base option for 2013.
In contrast, the White Sox opened camp with newly signed free agent utility man Jeff Keppinger slated to be at third. Injury prone Bret Morel was targeted to be the back up third baseman if he was healthy. But the White Sox front office saw their roster being right hand hitting dominant. And to further bolster roster depth, the Sox decided to go out and find a left handed bat that added depth at third base.
So the White Sox traded minor league pitcher Jeff Soptic to the Giants for minor league third baseman Conor Gillaspie.
Gillaspie, 25, is a left handed hitting infielder, who was a former fast-rising prospect and 37th overall selection in 2008. He played in the major leagues less than 100 days after he was selected. He has spent most of his time in the minor leagues since then, though, batting .287 with 37 home runs and 259 RBIs over five seasons. To make room for Gillaspie, the White Sox waived first baseman Lars Anderson, whom they recently picked up off waivers.
Over 29 major league games spanning three seasons with the Giants he hit .205 with one home run and four RBIs. As ESPN Chicago reported:
"He conceivably fits in nicely on the roster, which we’ll obviously decide more about toward the end of next month," general manager Rick Hahn said. "But we see him having a solid hit tool, above-average awareness of the strike zone, solid defensively. He gives us a little versatility in his ability to play third base as well as first. He gives (manager) Robin (Ventura) some options potentially."
Gillaspie is out of minor league options, which means that if he doesn't make the White Sox out of spring training he would have to go through the waivers process.
In certain respects, Gillaspie fits a real need for the Cubs, someone who will be able to back up third and first base this season. Currently, the Cubs have no one on the roster for that role. Non-roster invitee Brett Lillibridge is getting some play because he can also play the outfield. But the Cubs appear not to want to trade any prospects (especially their own) to fill current season needs. This is a clear signal that the Cubs do not want to tinker with their rebuilding plan by trading away young talent that they are signing or developing for a player that meets a current roster need.
As camp opened, the Cubs third base corps was a mess. Ian Stewart and Josh Vitters both strained their lat muscles. Stewart, coming off wrist surgery and a busted 2012 season, had an MRI and may miss some time. Vitters injury appears to be less severe. However, when one looks at the entire organizational chart, only Luis Valbuena remains as a third base option for 2013.
In contrast, the White Sox opened camp with newly signed free agent utility man Jeff Keppinger slated to be at third. Injury prone Bret Morel was targeted to be the back up third baseman if he was healthy. But the White Sox front office saw their roster being right hand hitting dominant. And to further bolster roster depth, the Sox decided to go out and find a left handed bat that added depth at third base.
So the White Sox traded minor league pitcher Jeff Soptic to the Giants for minor league third baseman Conor Gillaspie.
Gillaspie, 25, is a left handed hitting infielder, who was a former fast-rising prospect and 37th overall selection in 2008. He played in the major leagues less than 100 days after he was selected. He has spent most of his time in the minor leagues since then, though, batting .287 with 37 home runs and 259 RBIs over five seasons. To make room for Gillaspie, the White Sox waived first baseman Lars Anderson, whom they recently picked up off waivers.
Over 29 major league games spanning three seasons with the Giants he hit .205 with one home run and four RBIs. As ESPN Chicago reported:
"He conceivably fits in nicely on the roster, which we’ll obviously decide more about toward the end of next month," general manager Rick Hahn said. "But we see him having a solid hit tool, above-average awareness of the strike zone, solid defensively. He gives us a little versatility in his ability to play third base as well as first. He gives (manager) Robin (Ventura) some options potentially."
Gillaspie is out of minor league options, which means that if he doesn't make the White Sox out of spring training he would have to go through the waivers process.
In certain respects, Gillaspie fits a real need for the Cubs, someone who will be able to back up third and first base this season. Currently, the Cubs have no one on the roster for that role. Non-roster invitee Brett Lillibridge is getting some play because he can also play the outfield. But the Cubs appear not to want to trade any prospects (especially their own) to fill current season needs. This is a clear signal that the Cubs do not want to tinker with their rebuilding plan by trading away young talent that they are signing or developing for a player that meets a current roster need.
November 27, 2012
THE PRICE FOR THIRD
The Mets have offered third baseman David Wright a 6 year, $100 million deal. Wright, a free agent after 2013, is expected to decline the offer.
The Mets offer is the same as two other third basemen who signed this year: Evan Longoria of the Rays and Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals. At $16.67 million per season, the market has been set for a quality third baseman.
Zimmerman was the face of the Nationals franchise when it was bad. He has had two injury seasons, and durability going forward was a small factor in his recent new contract. In 8 years, Zimmerman is a career .287 hitter, with 153 HR, 593 RBI, .353 OBP, 30 SB, .959 field percentage and 28.6 WAR.
Longoria is less than two years younger. He burst on the scene in 2008. He is also the face of the Rays franchise. However, he was hurt last season so his long term durability came into question. But in his 5 years, he is a career .276 hitter, with 130 HR, 456 RBI, .361 OBP, 36 SB, .963 field percentage and 28.5 WAR.
Wright, 29, has been a career Met. He had one injury shorten season in 2011. Last year he rebounded by playing in 156 games. In his 9 seasons, he is a career .301 hitter, with 204 HR, 818 RBI, .381 OBP, 166 SB, .953 field percentage and 39.1 WAR.
It is not a direct apples to apples comparsion, but these three proven players are similar enough to set the market value for a steady, quality third baseman at $16.67 million plus per season. Wright will probably ask for more money based upon his slightly better stats than Zimmerman. And in the league with power third basemen at a premium, he will probably get more than a $100 million deal.
UPDATE: Wright signed an 8 year/$138 million deal to stay with the Mets. That averages $17.25 million per season.
The Mets offer is the same as two other third basemen who signed this year: Evan Longoria of the Rays and Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals. At $16.67 million per season, the market has been set for a quality third baseman.
Zimmerman was the face of the Nationals franchise when it was bad. He has had two injury seasons, and durability going forward was a small factor in his recent new contract. In 8 years, Zimmerman is a career .287 hitter, with 153 HR, 593 RBI, .353 OBP, 30 SB, .959 field percentage and 28.6 WAR.
Longoria is less than two years younger. He burst on the scene in 2008. He is also the face of the Rays franchise. However, he was hurt last season so his long term durability came into question. But in his 5 years, he is a career .276 hitter, with 130 HR, 456 RBI, .361 OBP, 36 SB, .963 field percentage and 28.5 WAR.
Wright, 29, has been a career Met. He had one injury shorten season in 2011. Last year he rebounded by playing in 156 games. In his 9 seasons, he is a career .301 hitter, with 204 HR, 818 RBI, .381 OBP, 166 SB, .953 field percentage and 39.1 WAR.
It is not a direct apples to apples comparsion, but these three proven players are similar enough to set the market value for a steady, quality third baseman at $16.67 million plus per season. Wright will probably ask for more money based upon his slightly better stats than Zimmerman. And in the league with power third basemen at a premium, he will probably get more than a $100 million deal.
UPDATE: Wright signed an 8 year/$138 million deal to stay with the Mets. That averages $17.25 million per season.
November 10, 2012
WHO IS ON THIRD?
It is apparent that the Cubs have a crater to fill at third base. The Josh Vitters Experiment will continue in Iowa next season. Luis Valbuena is not the answer at third in 2013.
Valbuena, 27, is a journeyman bench player. He hit .219 for the Cubs, 4 HR, 28 RBI, .310 OBP, 0 SB and .963 field percentage at third base. His WAR was 0.4, barely over AAA replacement value.
The free agent market is weak at third base. Realistically, the Cubs have the following free agent options:
1. Jeff Keppinger, 32. He hit .325 with 9 HR, 40 RBI for the Rays. He made $1.53 million last season. He could be considered an overachieving utility infielder. For a full time third baseman, he would lack power numbers for the position. But he would appear signable.
2. Eric Chavez, 34. He hit .281, with 16 HR, 37 RBI for the Yankees. He is on the down slide of his career. He played mostly part time last season. He could hold the position like Gary Gaetti did for the Cubs at the end of his career. He would only cost around $2 million.
3. Casey McGehee, 30. The former Cub has struggled since his first 1.5 seasons with the Brewers. He hit .217, 9 HR, 41 RBI last season. He fits into the Chavez category as a stop-gap measure at around the same free agent price.
4. Brandon Inge, 35. He also is nearing the end of his career. He hit .215 with 12 HR 54 RBI last season in 83 games. Durability may be an issue. He projects to Ian Stewart type numbers.
5. Alberto Gonzalez, 29. He has played for 4 teams in the last 7 years, mostly as a back-up replacement player. In Texas, he played only 24 games, hitting .241, 0 HR, 4 RBI. He can play 3B, 2B and SS. He is the cheapest alternative at $750,000. But he gives little offense and no power.
With the poor choices on the open market, besides Vitters, who played third base at Iowa?
Nate Samson played 19 games, hit .280, 0 HR, 3 RBI, .333. OBP, and 1 error. He started the season in AA, where he hit .271, 2 HR, 14 RBI, .317 OBP. He ended the season on the disabled list. So he is not ready to compete for the starting third base job in 2013.
Valbuena, 27, is a journeyman bench player. He hit .219 for the Cubs, 4 HR, 28 RBI, .310 OBP, 0 SB and .963 field percentage at third base. His WAR was 0.4, barely over AAA replacement value.
The free agent market is weak at third base. Realistically, the Cubs have the following free agent options:
1. Jeff Keppinger, 32. He hit .325 with 9 HR, 40 RBI for the Rays. He made $1.53 million last season. He could be considered an overachieving utility infielder. For a full time third baseman, he would lack power numbers for the position. But he would appear signable.
2. Eric Chavez, 34. He hit .281, with 16 HR, 37 RBI for the Yankees. He is on the down slide of his career. He played mostly part time last season. He could hold the position like Gary Gaetti did for the Cubs at the end of his career. He would only cost around $2 million.
3. Casey McGehee, 30. The former Cub has struggled since his first 1.5 seasons with the Brewers. He hit .217, 9 HR, 41 RBI last season. He fits into the Chavez category as a stop-gap measure at around the same free agent price.
4. Brandon Inge, 35. He also is nearing the end of his career. He hit .215 with 12 HR 54 RBI last season in 83 games. Durability may be an issue. He projects to Ian Stewart type numbers.
5. Alberto Gonzalez, 29. He has played for 4 teams in the last 7 years, mostly as a back-up replacement player. In Texas, he played only 24 games, hitting .241, 0 HR, 4 RBI. He can play 3B, 2B and SS. He is the cheapest alternative at $750,000. But he gives little offense and no power.
With the poor choices on the open market, besides Vitters, who played third base at Iowa?
Nate Samson played 19 games, hit .280, 0 HR, 3 RBI, .333. OBP, and 1 error. He started the season in AA, where he hit .271, 2 HR, 14 RBI, .317 OBP. He ended the season on the disabled list. So he is not ready to compete for the starting third base job in 2013.
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