The Rangers, Dodgers, Phillies and the Cubs have reported put in posting bids for the right to sign Korean starting pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu is a 25 year old left handed pitcher, with low 90s fastball and a plus curveball. He is probably the best professional Korean baseball player. He has been called an unfortunate ace because his team is usually near the bottom of the standings. But his career record is consistent:
2006: 18-6. 2.23 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
2007: 17-7, 2.94 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
2008: 14-7, 3.31 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
2009: 13-12, 3.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
2010: 16-4, 1.82 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
2011: 11-7, 3.36 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
2012: 9-9, 2.66 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
The question is whether Ryu’s Korean league performance will equate to MLB performance. Most people consider Japan’s level of play around AA-AAA level. Korean league is judged around a AA level. But there are exceptions to the rule.
Yu Darvish was the most sought after Asian pitcher last season. He signed a big money contract with the Rangers (6 years/$56 million). For the Rangers, he went 16-9, 3.90 ERA, 1.280 WHIP in 29 starts.
Darvish was also 25 when put out to bid. After the earthquake delayed the 2011 Japanese baseball season, Darvish pitched 18 wins, 1,44 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 28 starts. It was a career year for him.
This is the last loophole in the current CBA. Any player who is older than 23 with 5 pro years in his home country, does not fall under the international player signing restrictions. This is the last area where a team can “overspend” with unlimited dollars in order to get a free agent. This had been the overpay system that Epstein cultured when he was in Boston. However, it is uncertain whether Ricketts and business side of the Cubs have put the brakes on wild free agency spending for the near term.
Ryu is represented by Scott Boras, who will seek maximum dollars for his client. He may ask for more than Darvish contract, but it is doubtful that will happen since the leverage of the open market is restricted to the one winning post bid team. But even at $6 million per season, there is a risk of whether Ryu’s ability will continue once he faces a season of major league hitters. The foreign starting pitching signees have had spotty records in recent years.
For the Cubs to make a large commitment to Ryu, he would have to be the ace of their rotation for the next six years.
INSANE UPDATE: The Hanwha Eagles have accepted a bid of $25,737,737 for Ryu. The Rangers made a bid, and the Dodgers submitted "an aggressive bid," but a winner has not yet been announced. Jon Heyman reports that the Cubs made a bid but are not the post winner. Again, this puts Ryu in the $100 million contract range which is quite expensive and risky.
November 9, 2012
November 8, 2012
TOP 4 PICK UPS
Knowing the Cubs desire to sign and flip starting pitchers during the long rebuilding process, there have been numerous names floating around as potential targets, such as Dan Haren or Shaun Marcum.
I think better value could be made with more under the radar selections. My quick list of major league starters at reasonable salaries who fit the Cubs 2013 profile are:
1. John Lannan, 28, LHP.
He was the odd man out in the Nationals rotation last season. He spend an unhappy year mostly in AAA. He went 4-1, 4.13 ERA 1.439 WHIP. He would be a motivated player in 2013. He has no injury issues. He made $5 million last season. So if the Nationals don't tender him a contract, he could be signed at the $5 million range.
2. Carlos Villanueva, 29, RHP
He played through some highs and lows with Toronto. Playing for the Blue Jays keeps him under the national radar. He went 7-7, 4.16 ERA, 1.269 WHIP. He made $2.28 million last season, and he would expect a raise to around $4 million. The question with him is command and control.
3. Kevin Correia, 32, RHP
He was in the doghouse late in the season and wanted out of Pittsburgh. The Cubs have historically done well in signing ex-Pirates for the short term. He went 12-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.298 WHIP. He made $3 million last season so he would expect near $5 million for 2013.
4. Jair Jurrjens, 26, RHP.
One of the Braves young guns who had nagging injuries the last few seasons. He was on the trade block before last season as the Braves have a bountiful of young arms ready for major league duty. He went 3-4, 6.89 ERA, 1.862 WHIP. Those numbers could scare off some teams. If the Braves do not offer him a contract, Jurrjens could be the high risk-reward type signee that the Cubs front office would pounce with glee. Jurrjens made $5.5 million last season. Even with injuries, one could expect a small raise in a discounted multi-year deal. But he is still young.
I think better value could be made with more under the radar selections. My quick list of major league starters at reasonable salaries who fit the Cubs 2013 profile are:
1. John Lannan, 28, LHP.
He was the odd man out in the Nationals rotation last season. He spend an unhappy year mostly in AAA. He went 4-1, 4.13 ERA 1.439 WHIP. He would be a motivated player in 2013. He has no injury issues. He made $5 million last season. So if the Nationals don't tender him a contract, he could be signed at the $5 million range.
2. Carlos Villanueva, 29, RHP
He played through some highs and lows with Toronto. Playing for the Blue Jays keeps him under the national radar. He went 7-7, 4.16 ERA, 1.269 WHIP. He made $2.28 million last season, and he would expect a raise to around $4 million. The question with him is command and control.
3. Kevin Correia, 32, RHP
He was in the doghouse late in the season and wanted out of Pittsburgh. The Cubs have historically done well in signing ex-Pirates for the short term. He went 12-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.298 WHIP. He made $3 million last season so he would expect near $5 million for 2013.
4. Jair Jurrjens, 26, RHP.
One of the Braves young guns who had nagging injuries the last few seasons. He was on the trade block before last season as the Braves have a bountiful of young arms ready for major league duty. He went 3-4, 6.89 ERA, 1.862 WHIP. Those numbers could scare off some teams. If the Braves do not offer him a contract, Jurrjens could be the high risk-reward type signee that the Cubs front office would pounce with glee. Jurrjens made $5.5 million last season. Even with injuries, one could expect a small raise in a discounted multi-year deal. But he is still young.
November 7, 2012
TOP PROSPECTS
Baseball Prospectus has its new Top 10 Cubs prospects list (with my commentary):
1. Albert Almora, OF. He was Theo's first first round draft pick. Passed up college for pros.
He is still at least three full seasons from any major league look.
2. Javier Baez, SS. He is a holdover from the Hendry regime. He is a shortstop with some power.
His development setback in fall league: dislocated thumb. He is still at least two years away.
3. Jorge Soler, OF. Theo's big international, big money signee. However, the Cubs placed him in the low minors to begin his U.S. pro career. It depends on how desperate the Cubs are to promote a big bat prospect.
4. Arodyz Vizcaino, SP. He was acquired in the Maholm deal with the Braves. The issue is that Vizcaino, though young, is in the midst of Tommy John surgery rehab. There is always a question
of whether he will return to full velocity and full control. He probably will not make the roster until
2014.
5. Dan Vogelbach, 1B. He is the beefy high school kid that hits monster home runs. And apparently, that is it. He is another Hendry hold over, so there is no time frame or need to promote him quickly since Rizzo is the cornerstone, franchise first baseman.
6. Brett Jackson, OF. Jackson's major league debut was a fizzle. There is now a question of whether there is no loyalty to Hendry's top prospects when it comes to final exams. Jackson is slated to start 2013 in Iowa, which may curse his Cub career. The Cubs have stated that they are looking for a new CF in 2013.
7. Pierce Johnson, SP. Another high Epstein draft choice. He probably will not be rushed to the majors before 2014.
8. Duane Underwood, SP. Another high Epstein draft choice. He also will not be rushed to the majors before 2014.
9. Christian Villanueva, 3B. Acquired in the Dempster trade from the Rangers, Villanueva's career was blocked in Texas. There are no road blocks in Cubs system, as Vitters debut was a disaster in 2013. Vitters will be in Iowa in 2013. The key question is whether Villanueva can make a large leap from AA ball to the majors in 2013. It is doubtful, since the front office has this arbitrary rule about prospects getting 500 AB in AAA.
10. Dillon Maples, SP. Another Hendry pick who has lanquished with slow progress in the minors. He was injured for part of last season which was a set back. With the massive emphasis on drafting pitchers in 2012, it is doubtful that the new management will hold on to aging prospects in the system.
1. Albert Almora, OF. He was Theo's first first round draft pick. Passed up college for pros.
He is still at least three full seasons from any major league look.
2. Javier Baez, SS. He is a holdover from the Hendry regime. He is a shortstop with some power.
His development setback in fall league: dislocated thumb. He is still at least two years away.
3. Jorge Soler, OF. Theo's big international, big money signee. However, the Cubs placed him in the low minors to begin his U.S. pro career. It depends on how desperate the Cubs are to promote a big bat prospect.
4. Arodyz Vizcaino, SP. He was acquired in the Maholm deal with the Braves. The issue is that Vizcaino, though young, is in the midst of Tommy John surgery rehab. There is always a question
of whether he will return to full velocity and full control. He probably will not make the roster until
2014.
5. Dan Vogelbach, 1B. He is the beefy high school kid that hits monster home runs. And apparently, that is it. He is another Hendry hold over, so there is no time frame or need to promote him quickly since Rizzo is the cornerstone, franchise first baseman.
6. Brett Jackson, OF. Jackson's major league debut was a fizzle. There is now a question of whether there is no loyalty to Hendry's top prospects when it comes to final exams. Jackson is slated to start 2013 in Iowa, which may curse his Cub career. The Cubs have stated that they are looking for a new CF in 2013.
7. Pierce Johnson, SP. Another high Epstein draft choice. He probably will not be rushed to the majors before 2014.
8. Duane Underwood, SP. Another high Epstein draft choice. He also will not be rushed to the majors before 2014.
9. Christian Villanueva, 3B. Acquired in the Dempster trade from the Rangers, Villanueva's career was blocked in Texas. There are no road blocks in Cubs system, as Vitters debut was a disaster in 2013. Vitters will be in Iowa in 2013. The key question is whether Villanueva can make a large leap from AA ball to the majors in 2013. It is doubtful, since the front office has this arbitrary rule about prospects getting 500 AB in AAA.
10. Dillon Maples, SP. Another Hendry pick who has lanquished with slow progress in the minors. He was injured for part of last season which was a set back. With the massive emphasis on drafting pitchers in 2012, it is doubtful that the new management will hold on to aging prospects in the system.
November 6, 2012
SHORT VISION
Cubs GM Hoyer was quoted by ESPN Chicago about the work at hand for the 2013 season. One of the holes to fill is center field. He is looking for a "short" deal free agent for whom they can trade at the deadline. It seems like a empty fantasy.
Here is a list of free agent center fielders:
Rick Ankiel (33)
Michael Bourn (30) - received qualifying offer
Josh Hamilton (32) - received qualifying offer
Reed Johnson (36)
Mitch Maier (31)
Nyjer Morgan (32)
Angel Pagan (31)
Scott Podsednik (37)
Grady Sizemore (30)
B.J. Upton (28) - received qualifying offer
Shane Victorino (32)
Dewayne Wise (35)
Any player with a qualifying offer who does not re-sign with his team carries with him the loss of his new team's first round draft choice. For the Cubs, that is the #2 pick. There is no way that the Cubs will want to forfeit the #2 pick in the draft.
The next problem with the CF FA list is that no other player is under the magic "30 years old" standard that Team Theo has advocated since day one. Yes, it is an arbitrary age in a long term rebuilding cycle.
If you get around the age factor, who left in the list that is a candidate for a flip-trade?
You can eliminate the journeymen: Ankiel, Johnson, Podsednik and Wise.
You can eliminate Sizemore due to injury issues.
Maier played only 32 games with the Royals and batted .172.
Morgan played 122 games with the Brewers. He batted .239, 3 HR, 16 RBI and 12 SB. He made $2.35 million last season.
Pagan is the former Cub who played 154 games for the Champion Giants. He hit .288, 8 HR, 56 RBI, 29 SB and lead the lead in triples (15). He made $4.85 million last season and will command a hefty raise today.
Victorino's career has been slowly sliding since his Phillies days. In 2012, he played for Phils and Dodgers. In 154 games, he hit. .255, 11 HR, 55 RBI and 39 SB. He made $9.5 million last season and could get a raise in a weak free agent market this off season.
The Cubs are kidding themselves if they think Pagan or Victorino would sign with a last place team on a short term deal. Quality free agents control their own destiny. They tend to go to big market "contending teams" on long term deals.
Here is a list of free agent center fielders:
Rick Ankiel (33)
Michael Bourn (30) - received qualifying offer
Josh Hamilton (32) - received qualifying offer
Reed Johnson (36)
Mitch Maier (31)
Nyjer Morgan (32)
Angel Pagan (31)
Scott Podsednik (37)
Grady Sizemore (30)
B.J. Upton (28) - received qualifying offer
Shane Victorino (32)
Dewayne Wise (35)
Any player with a qualifying offer who does not re-sign with his team carries with him the loss of his new team's first round draft choice. For the Cubs, that is the #2 pick. There is no way that the Cubs will want to forfeit the #2 pick in the draft.
The next problem with the CF FA list is that no other player is under the magic "30 years old" standard that Team Theo has advocated since day one. Yes, it is an arbitrary age in a long term rebuilding cycle.
If you get around the age factor, who left in the list that is a candidate for a flip-trade?
You can eliminate the journeymen: Ankiel, Johnson, Podsednik and Wise.
You can eliminate Sizemore due to injury issues.
Maier played only 32 games with the Royals and batted .172.
Morgan played 122 games with the Brewers. He batted .239, 3 HR, 16 RBI and 12 SB. He made $2.35 million last season.
Pagan is the former Cub who played 154 games for the Champion Giants. He hit .288, 8 HR, 56 RBI, 29 SB and lead the lead in triples (15). He made $4.85 million last season and will command a hefty raise today.
Victorino's career has been slowly sliding since his Phillies days. In 2012, he played for Phils and Dodgers. In 154 games, he hit. .255, 11 HR, 55 RBI and 39 SB. He made $9.5 million last season and could get a raise in a weak free agent market this off season.
The Cubs are kidding themselves if they think Pagan or Victorino would sign with a last place team on a short term deal. Quality free agents control their own destiny. They tend to go to big market "contending teams" on long term deals.
November 3, 2012
FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE
There is a disturbing trend in the new Cubs front office. The Dempster for Delgado trade to Atlanta was botched because of a lack of communication. And now, a late night deal to acquire a quality starter fell by the wayside due to apparent communication issues.
The Cubs were going to trade closer Carlos Marmol to the Angels for starter Dan Haren. The deadline was midnight for the Angels to exercise Haren's $15.5 million option for 2013. The plan was to exercise the option and trade Haren for a player. Otherwise, the Angels would decline the option, pay the $3.5 million buyout and let Haren become a free agent.
Haren was one of the potential targets for the Cubs in the free agent market. The Cubs are in desperate need for rotation help, and if Haren stays healthy, he could be flipped at the July, 2013 deadline for more prospects.
Marmol would make $9.8 million in 2013. Reports indicate that Marmol did not object to the trade.
Initial reports stated that the Cubs were "confused" over the Haren buy-out contract language.
Why would the Cubs be confused with a buy-out clause when it is standard practice in player contracts? And why would the Cubs care about the buy-out because it would be moot if the player option was exercised for 2013, which had to be a condition of the trade?
If that was the reason, then that is pretty dumb.
However, ESPN's Bruce Levine reported on the radio this morning that the hang-up over the deal was money.
The true reason may have been about equalizing salaries. Haren would have made $15.5 million. Marmol will make $9.8 million. That is a $5.7 million difference. If the Cubs were looking for the Angels to trade Haren with $5 million in cash for Marmol, that would have been a deal killer. And that would also have been a dumb move.
It is a hard sell to pay a new closer, who you will only have for 2013 season, the equivalent of $14.8 million. So the Angels would have balked at such a deal.
But from a Cub prospective, Marmol's $9.8 million is dead money. The Cubs are projected for another 100 loss season, so an expensive closer is a payroll burden. If the Cubs would have off-loaded Marmol's salary, that would have been a financial plus in the payroll budget because the Cubs still had to sign several starters this off season. To get Haren today, it will cost the Cubs at least $15 million plus Marmol's contract which is still on the books. At the very least, a straight up deal would have given the Cubs the flexibility to use Marmol's $9.8 salary slot to sign another free agent starting pitcher. So trying to get cash from the Angels was a dumb move.
The Cubs could have immediately upgraded the rotation with the Haren deal. He would be the #1 or #2 starter for 2013. Now, if the Cubs want Haren, it will cost the team MORE money than what was involved in the Angels deal.
This is another strange trade tale. It is also a clear signal that the Cubs are money conscious. Despite a horrible season, the team refused to really reduce any of the season ticket package prices. Instead, shifting any discounts to increases in single game ticket prices. In addition, the team is attempting to crack down on season ticket re-sellers which makes little sense since there was no viable secondary ticket market for a bad Cubs team in 2012.
The Cubs were going to trade closer Carlos Marmol to the Angels for starter Dan Haren. The deadline was midnight for the Angels to exercise Haren's $15.5 million option for 2013. The plan was to exercise the option and trade Haren for a player. Otherwise, the Angels would decline the option, pay the $3.5 million buyout and let Haren become a free agent.
Haren was one of the potential targets for the Cubs in the free agent market. The Cubs are in desperate need for rotation help, and if Haren stays healthy, he could be flipped at the July, 2013 deadline for more prospects.
Marmol would make $9.8 million in 2013. Reports indicate that Marmol did not object to the trade.
Initial reports stated that the Cubs were "confused" over the Haren buy-out contract language.
Why would the Cubs be confused with a buy-out clause when it is standard practice in player contracts? And why would the Cubs care about the buy-out because it would be moot if the player option was exercised for 2013, which had to be a condition of the trade?
If that was the reason, then that is pretty dumb.
However, ESPN's Bruce Levine reported on the radio this morning that the hang-up over the deal was money.
The true reason may have been about equalizing salaries. Haren would have made $15.5 million. Marmol will make $9.8 million. That is a $5.7 million difference. If the Cubs were looking for the Angels to trade Haren with $5 million in cash for Marmol, that would have been a deal killer. And that would also have been a dumb move.
It is a hard sell to pay a new closer, who you will only have for 2013 season, the equivalent of $14.8 million. So the Angels would have balked at such a deal.
But from a Cub prospective, Marmol's $9.8 million is dead money. The Cubs are projected for another 100 loss season, so an expensive closer is a payroll burden. If the Cubs would have off-loaded Marmol's salary, that would have been a financial plus in the payroll budget because the Cubs still had to sign several starters this off season. To get Haren today, it will cost the Cubs at least $15 million plus Marmol's contract which is still on the books. At the very least, a straight up deal would have given the Cubs the flexibility to use Marmol's $9.8 salary slot to sign another free agent starting pitcher. So trying to get cash from the Angels was a dumb move.
The Cubs could have immediately upgraded the rotation with the Haren deal. He would be the #1 or #2 starter for 2013. Now, if the Cubs want Haren, it will cost the team MORE money than what was involved in the Angels deal.
This is another strange trade tale. It is also a clear signal that the Cubs are money conscious. Despite a horrible season, the team refused to really reduce any of the season ticket package prices. Instead, shifting any discounts to increases in single game ticket prices. In addition, the team is attempting to crack down on season ticket re-sellers which makes little sense since there was no viable secondary ticket market for a bad Cubs team in 2012.
November 2, 2012
HOT STOVE WARM UP
The winter baseball season has started with many writers culling the free agent list to speculate where the top fifty will land in 2013. Real movement will begin at the Winter Meetings in December.
But it does not stop the crystal balls from being polished by wordsmiths.
Here are the names currently attached to the Cubs as potential free agent catches:
1. Shaun Marcum, sp (Brewers), 30 years old. He went 7-4, 3.70 ERA in 21 starts. 1.266 WHIP. He made $7.75 million last season. The real issue is that he has an elbow injury or concern. The new front office is like the old front office in that they are willing to take fliers on injured pitchers (example, Maholm for Tommy John repaired Vizcaino.) The Cubs destroyed their starting rotation at the trade deadline, and will try to move Garza this winter. There are no ready capable starters in the minor league system. So the Cubs have to fill the rotation with second or third tier starters just to field a team. (If the Cubs kept Maholm, he would have been cheaper at $6.5 million). The plan will be to try to sign a down pitcher, and if he performs, to flip him for more prospects at the trade deadline.
2. Jeremy Guthrie, sp, (Rockies-Royals), 33 years old. He went 8-12, 4.76 ERA in 33 starts. He did do better in Kansas City,going 5-3 with 3.16 ERA. He made $8.2 million. So you do not know what you are getting with Guthrie, bad Rocky or good Royal. He is only has a .417 career winning percentage. But he could give you 180 IP.
3. Ryan Dempster, sp, (Cubs-Rangers), 35 years old. The Cubs pushed him out the door to get a third base prospect from the Rangers. With Texas, he went 7-3 with a high 5.09 ERA in 12 starts and 1.435 WHIP. Was it the AL that made Dempster a dramatically worse pitcher? Or has the decline started? Why would Dempster want to come back to the Cubs who traded him at the deadline? The Cubs PR department wants to get fans looking forward into the distant future, so bringing back the "ace" of the staff for a 101-loss team seems counterproductive. Dempster made $14 million last season, and would probably want a multi-year guaranteed deal to get a discount.
4. Torii Hunter, of, (Angels), 37 years old. The Angels have no room in the outfield for Hunter. The idea that the Brett Jackson experiment will not pan out is premature. Hunter made $18 million last season. He hit .313, 16 HR, 92 RBI in a very powerful lineup. It makes little sense to spend $10 million or more on an outfielder on the bare bones rebuilding club when that money can be spent on a #4 starter or three veteran bench players.
5. Dan Haren, sp, (Angels), 32 years old. He made $12.75 million and the Angels have a $15.5 million option to be exercised today if the team wants to sign and trade him. Some believe he is an injury waiting to happen, Haren did make 30 starts for the Angels. He went 12-13, 4.33 ERA, 1.291 WHIP. He would be an expensive acquisition, and would be very difficult to trade at the deadline because of his salary.
But it does not stop the crystal balls from being polished by wordsmiths.
Here are the names currently attached to the Cubs as potential free agent catches:
1. Shaun Marcum, sp (Brewers), 30 years old. He went 7-4, 3.70 ERA in 21 starts. 1.266 WHIP. He made $7.75 million last season. The real issue is that he has an elbow injury or concern. The new front office is like the old front office in that they are willing to take fliers on injured pitchers (example, Maholm for Tommy John repaired Vizcaino.) The Cubs destroyed their starting rotation at the trade deadline, and will try to move Garza this winter. There are no ready capable starters in the minor league system. So the Cubs have to fill the rotation with second or third tier starters just to field a team. (If the Cubs kept Maholm, he would have been cheaper at $6.5 million). The plan will be to try to sign a down pitcher, and if he performs, to flip him for more prospects at the trade deadline.
2. Jeremy Guthrie, sp, (Rockies-Royals), 33 years old. He went 8-12, 4.76 ERA in 33 starts. He did do better in Kansas City,going 5-3 with 3.16 ERA. He made $8.2 million. So you do not know what you are getting with Guthrie, bad Rocky or good Royal. He is only has a .417 career winning percentage. But he could give you 180 IP.
3. Ryan Dempster, sp, (Cubs-Rangers), 35 years old. The Cubs pushed him out the door to get a third base prospect from the Rangers. With Texas, he went 7-3 with a high 5.09 ERA in 12 starts and 1.435 WHIP. Was it the AL that made Dempster a dramatically worse pitcher? Or has the decline started? Why would Dempster want to come back to the Cubs who traded him at the deadline? The Cubs PR department wants to get fans looking forward into the distant future, so bringing back the "ace" of the staff for a 101-loss team seems counterproductive. Dempster made $14 million last season, and would probably want a multi-year guaranteed deal to get a discount.
4. Torii Hunter, of, (Angels), 37 years old. The Angels have no room in the outfield for Hunter. The idea that the Brett Jackson experiment will not pan out is premature. Hunter made $18 million last season. He hit .313, 16 HR, 92 RBI in a very powerful lineup. It makes little sense to spend $10 million or more on an outfielder on the bare bones rebuilding club when that money can be spent on a #4 starter or three veteran bench players.
5. Dan Haren, sp, (Angels), 32 years old. He made $12.75 million and the Angels have a $15.5 million option to be exercised today if the team wants to sign and trade him. Some believe he is an injury waiting to happen, Haren did make 30 starts for the Angels. He went 12-13, 4.33 ERA, 1.291 WHIP. He would be an expensive acquisition, and would be very difficult to trade at the deadline because of his salary.
November 1, 2012
QUALITY STARTERS
Some writers grumbled why the White Sox quickly signed Jake Peavy to a new two-year contract.
Because, Peavy is a "quality" starter.
Stats guys believe a "quality" start is a pitcher throwing 6 innings and allowing 3 or fewer runs. However, critics believe that a 4.50 ERA is hardly a "quality" outing for a pitcher, even in the juiced ball era.
So what is a quality start? Is it total victories? Or is it keeping your team in the game with the opportunity to win? Is it shutting down your opponent to take the pressure off your offense? It is probably a combination of those factors.
The oldest markers of a good pitcher is earned runs and control (WHIP).
And baseball as a whole has some clear statistical benchmarks in ERA and WHIP.
In 2012, American League teams combined had an average ERA of 4.08.
In 2012, National League teams combined had an average ERA of 3.95. This probably is the differential of the NL not having a DH.
In 2012, all teams combined had an average ERA of 4.01. So one could argue that 4.00 is an "average" major league pitcher benchmark.
It is also confirmed by a means test. In 2012, 7 of the 14 AL teams had a team ERA under 4.00 while 7 of the AL teams had an ERA above 4.00. In the NL, 9 teams had team ERA under 4.00 while 7 teams were higher than 4.00.
Clearly, a "quality" start of 4.50 ERA is false, considering an "average" pitcher is significantly below that number at 4.00 (11.1 percent).
It may get subjective at this point, but one could argue that a "quality" pitcher has an ERA of 3.50 and an "excellent" pitcher has an ERA of 3.49 or below.
In conjunction with lower ERA is a lower WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitched). In regard to both the AL and NL, in 2012 the average WHIP was identical at 1.31. This figure represents the average "control" a major league pitcher has on the mound. The lower the number, the more control. The higher the number, the less control (since walks is an equal component).
So how was Peavy's 2012 season? He had 32 starts, a 3.37 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His ERA was 15.76 percent below the 4.00 standard. His WHIP was 16 percent below the 1.31 standard. You would have to put Peavy's season in the "excellent" category.
And that is why the White Sox signed Peavy to maintain an excellent one-two punch with starter Chris Sale (29 starts, 3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) at the top of the 2013 rotation.
Because, Peavy is a "quality" starter.
Stats guys believe a "quality" start is a pitcher throwing 6 innings and allowing 3 or fewer runs. However, critics believe that a 4.50 ERA is hardly a "quality" outing for a pitcher, even in the juiced ball era.
So what is a quality start? Is it total victories? Or is it keeping your team in the game with the opportunity to win? Is it shutting down your opponent to take the pressure off your offense? It is probably a combination of those factors.
The oldest markers of a good pitcher is earned runs and control (WHIP).
And baseball as a whole has some clear statistical benchmarks in ERA and WHIP.
In 2012, American League teams combined had an average ERA of 4.08.
In 2012, National League teams combined had an average ERA of 3.95. This probably is the differential of the NL not having a DH.
In 2012, all teams combined had an average ERA of 4.01. So one could argue that 4.00 is an "average" major league pitcher benchmark.
It is also confirmed by a means test. In 2012, 7 of the 14 AL teams had a team ERA under 4.00 while 7 of the AL teams had an ERA above 4.00. In the NL, 9 teams had team ERA under 4.00 while 7 teams were higher than 4.00.
Clearly, a "quality" start of 4.50 ERA is false, considering an "average" pitcher is significantly below that number at 4.00 (11.1 percent).
It may get subjective at this point, but one could argue that a "quality" pitcher has an ERA of 3.50 and an "excellent" pitcher has an ERA of 3.49 or below.
In conjunction with lower ERA is a lower WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitched). In regard to both the AL and NL, in 2012 the average WHIP was identical at 1.31. This figure represents the average "control" a major league pitcher has on the mound. The lower the number, the more control. The higher the number, the less control (since walks is an equal component).
So how was Peavy's 2012 season? He had 32 starts, a 3.37 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His ERA was 15.76 percent below the 4.00 standard. His WHIP was 16 percent below the 1.31 standard. You would have to put Peavy's season in the "excellent" category.
And that is why the White Sox signed Peavy to maintain an excellent one-two punch with starter Chris Sale (29 starts, 3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) at the top of the 2013 rotation.
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