TINKER TO SECOND CHANCE

It seems that Tom Ricketts spends all day in his office tinkering with the Wrigley Field architectural legos. The rehabilitation plans for the park are constantly in flux. It took a FOIA request by the Tribune to find out what is actually in the "final" plans. From the fragmented reports, this is what I think is the current plan:

The first phase of the plan is to get the 7 outfield signs in as soon as possible. To do so, the back bleacher walls are to be moved 6 feet into the street; and the bleacher extended 12 feet over the streets. The new outfield signs will be anchored on this new structural support. The bleachers themselves are going to be mostly torn down in order to a) construct the under-the-bleachers bullpens and b) rebuild the outfield brick walls and ivy. Two light poles will be installed in the outfield corners. The new bleacher configuration may also support another bar/restaurant hidden under the bleachers near the gates.

The strangest part of the new plan are three "bunker" suites. We think that they are going to be constructed underground where the box seats abut the old LF bullpen area. The underground suites will have no view to the field, but will have a concourse to new box seats apparently in the area of the old Cubs bullpen. It would seem that the existing box seat sections will have to be torn up in order to construct these new bunkers, possibly in conjunction with the new clubhouse plans. Likewise, the RF box seats will be added extending from the visitors dugout the the bullpen to the foul pole.  The likely result of these changes is that there will be little to no foul territory. 

If you are puzzled why there is so much underground building, it seems to be the only way to monetize every single inch of Wrigley Field space. I really don't recall the public outcry for new luxury suites that have no view of Wrigley Field. I don't see stuffing a bullpen staff into a hot livestock pen under the bleachers on hot summer days is going to make them any better pitchers. And for all those Cub fans who still blame Bartman for alleged interference, without any foul territory there will be more fan "plays" in the future.

But what is really amazing is that the city approved a plan and the final submissions have substantial changes. The Tribune reported that the outside facades now will have large electronic ribbon advertising signs (like Times Square). But at the same time, Ricketts wants Wrigley Field to be put on the National Historic Register, so he can get a 20% tax break on the reconstruction costs. But clearly, Ricketts is not "preserving" the old park in its original state; he is totally transforming it into a Disney entertainment complex.

And now, the time line for the reconstruction will span four off seasons. So the work will not be completed until Opening Day 2018. And there were reports that the baseball operations will not have the freedom to spend until the business side maxes out on the revenue side. So the Cubs as a baseball operation may be handcuffed until 2018. Unless of course, the construction plans change - - - again.

ID THE CORE

Here is the Cubs current roster:

ROTATION:

RHP Jake Arrieta

RHP Edwin Jackson

LHP Travis Wood

RHP Kyle Hendricks

LHP Tsuyoshi Wada

BULLPEN:

RHP Hector Rondon (closer)

LHP Wesley Wright

RHP Justin Grimm

RHP Brian Schlitter

RHP Carlos Villanueva

RHP Pedro Strop

LHP Chris Rusin

CATCHERS:

John Baker

Welington Castillo

INFIELDERS:

1B Anthony Rizzo

2B Arismendy Alcantara

SS Starlin Castro

3B Luis Valbuena

INF Chris Valaika
INF Javy Baez
OUTFIELDERS:
LF Chris Coghlan

CF Junior Lake

OF Ryan Sweeney

OF Justin Ruggiano

Objectively, which players will be part of the team during transition to competitve team and which players are CORE starters?

ROTATION: Arrieta, Jackson and Wood are going to be around for the next few years, but by the time the Cubs are competitive (maybe in 2018), they may not be still on the roster. Wada is a transition veteran pitcher. Perhaps Hendricks may be considered as a core rotation guy but he still needs to learn a steady out pitch since he does not have a dominate fast ball.

BULLPEN: Villaneuva, Schlitter, and Rusin are all AAAA guys holding a spot on a bad team. Strop and Grimm were acquired by the front office, but are replaceable as well as Wright. Maybe one could stay on as a bullpen specialist for the next few years. Rondon is being groomed as a closer so he appears to be potential core player.

CATCHER: Castillo is the core catcher by default since the Cubs organization had no catching depth until the draft. The Cubs paid a ton for Brave prospect Caratini so he may be the core catcher of the future.

INFIELDERS: The Cubs have used a vast collection of bench utility players to man the infield. Castro and Rizzo have been deemed core players for the future, however more and more Castro trade rumors will circle the press this off season. Alcantara started off fast but is returning to Earth, batting .255. He may be a transition player until Addison Russell and Javy Baez both hit the majors, for whom the front office has identified as core players.  Baez has arrived like the team savior, which is overhyped expectation. Valbuena and Valaika may be supersubs on a competitive team, likely not the Cubs down the road.

OUTFIELDERS: Not one outfielder listed is considered a core player.

So maybe, at best, there are 5 "core" players on the Cubs 25 man major league roster (20%).

This shows that there still is a long way to go in the competitive rebuilding process.

 

WAIVER CLAIM

MLBTR recaps a very odd chain of events:

The Cubs have claimed Marlins righty Jacob Turner off revocable waivers, ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden was first to report (on Twitter). (Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com also reported the claim by the Cubs, on Twitter. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first tweeted that Turner had been claimed by a National League club.)

A deal is likely, of course, because Turner was designated for assignment and therefore would ultimately go back onto waivers if Miami were to pull him back. In that event, the same waiver priority order would apply. Only the Rockies (worst record in the National League) had a higher priority than the Cubs, meaning that Colorado passed on the chance to add the 23-year-old, once-hyped righty. That, seemingly, is a mystifying decision for an organization that has been clamoring for young pitching, especially given Turner’s increasing propensity for generating grounders.

Meanwhile, the Cubs seem likely to add yet another interesting young arm in need of a fresh start. In addition to showing a willingness to sign and flip veteran free agents, Chicago has targeted struggling-but-talented young pitchers through trade. After picking up Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop last year in the Scott Feldman deal, for instance, the Cubs recently took Felix Doubront off of the Red Sox’ hands.

From the Marlins’ perspective, this move comes at an odd time. Had the team decided to part with him just a week ago, it would have had a much stronger position from which to craft a trade. Instead, Miami’s only leverage against the Cubs would be the possibility that Colorado might not pass on Turner a second time if he were to reach outright waivers.

Turner was a highly touted and near untouchable Tiger prospect. But he has had trouble reaching the hype. He seems to be another down pitching prospect that the Cubs want to fish for (like Arrieta.)

In 53 GP over four seasons (40 in the last two), Turner has a record of 9-21, 4.77 ERA, 1.462 WHIP and career WAR of 0.1. Nothing to write home about. 

Perhaps the release of Nate Schierholtz (to activate Fujikawa from 60 day DL) would be a better "catch" for the Rockies than a seemingly AAA pitching prospect in Turner (since the Cubs are playing the Rockies currently, there may have been some discussions about not taking someone off the wire).

It is doubtful that the Marlins, a mixed up organization to say the least, has any leverage to get a quality player from the Cubs since they have already made it known that Turner is not going to be kept on their 40 man roster. At best, maybe a low Class A pitcher like the Cubs got from the Dodgers for Barney.

THE SHOW

The Savior came to the majors last night.

He went 1-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI and 1 GWRBI.

My initial impression of Javy Baez's start:

1. He has an extremely long swing. Whether his fast bat speed is enough to adapt to major league pitching speed changes and breaking balls is going to be the key to success.

2. He was batting in the second hole, so he was told to take more pitches. It was probably to calm his nerves and make him think situationally at the plate. The manager indicated that Baez will stay in the No. 2 slot in the order.

3. Free swingers typically have more streaks, good and bad.  His approach to hitting seems more like a young Starlin Castro than an Anthony Rizzo. By promoting him during a lost season, the team is hoping Baez can learn how to get out of cold streaks and make adjustments before next year. If called to make a guess, Baez will be like Castro but with a lower batting average and more home runs.

4. First impressions can be deceiving, especially if a fan buys into the hype. Recall Junior Lake exploded onto the scene last year in his first professional series.

5. I don't know if he will stay at second base. Alcantara is a smoother defender at second. But there is general philosophy by the Cubs that the players are good athletes and good athletes can adapt and play many positions. I think that generalization only goes so far. Defensively, Baez may have better skill sets at third. But then, Kris Bryant is currently at AAA third, but now projects to being a corner outfielder. But Jorge Soler is going to be promoted in September, also as a corner outfielder. In some scouting reports, Baez also projects to being a corner outfielder.

MYTHS AND REALITY

It is getting harder to slash through the propaganda thicket of the Cubs public relations department. One of the soothing fairy tales making the rounds this year is that the Cubs will be in excellent shape to go out and acquire top pitching free agents.

The story goes that since the Cubs failed to get Tanaka or another major free agent last year, the $75 million plus price tag has been "saved" for future acquisitions.

Except, that cannot be possibly true.

Ricketts and the business side of the club does not give Theo and company a pot of money each season to "bank" and spend whenever they choose. Since the various articles dealing with the Cubs finances have been making the rounds, a pattern has emerged that the Cubs loan covenants that tie payroll to attendance hogtie the team from making any major moves.  Loan covenants are complex and one sided assurances written by banks to protect their money. An approval of an annual budget, including payroll, would be a standard covenant for bank approval. So the baseball operations is not "banking" in a free agency savings account millions of dollars while the team tanks.

The other part of the story is that the Cubs will be aggressive buyers this off-season. They will be players in the free agent pitching market, going after Jon Lester or James Shields. But the reality is that the Cubs don't have $100 million to spend on one player. And the reality is that spending $100 million on a starting pitcher for 2015 does not make the club any better or thrust it into divisional contention. Besides, the business model has been to trade away expensive starting pitching (Garza, Dempster, Maholm, Feldman, Smardzija and Hammel).

The Cubs have to have some story to keep the fans coming to the park through the end of the year. The Cubs need to have a better story to get season ticket holders to renew this winter. The team can't be as bold as Jerry Jones of the Cowboys who printed and sent playoff tickets to his 2014 season ticket holders.

The current core pitchers, Arrieta, T. Wood and E. Jackson, won't be around when the time comes to actually build a contending pitching staff. The team won't spend a fortune on starters until the inexpensive home grown talent takes root at Wrigley. The plan is to have low cost position players as starting fielders. Then, the team can buy proven veteran pitchers instead of developing a staff. But if the Cubs prospects don't pan out as a class, then the incentive is increased to not spend any money at all. Then, the Cubs will have to start over again.

THE TEASE

Rick Morrissey and Rick Telander were on the sportstalk TV show and basically lamented that the Cubs rebuilding process is nearing a brick wall from their interest. They acknowledge that the Cub front office has a plan. They have heard all about these great prospects. They are aware of the task of rebuilding an entire minor league system. But they have come around to the notion that it is unfair to the fans not to have a competitive team on the field.

It has finally begun to sink into local writers that the Cubs plan is narrow and short sighted. Morrissey finally asked the real question: it is fine to concentrate on rebuilding the minors, but there is no rule against building a major league roster at the same time.

The Cubs have created their own new front office mythology that the Boston guys are working their magic that got the Red Sox two championships.  The Red Sox made big trades and signed free agents in order to become a championship team. It was not a fully home grown team.

And the writers now believe that they have heard enough of "hope" and "prospect" and "the plan" to care less. Players are only prospects when they are not on the major league field. And we can only tell if they are any good if and when they reach the major league diamond. Until then, the discussion is irrelevant because fans of the Cubs want to see major league victories, not illusory minor league fantasy stats.

And they also raise the nuclear question. What if four years down the road, the majority of the prospects don't pan out, and the Cubs continue to muddle with 90 loss seasons?

David Kaplan remarked that the front office would be fired. But that does not make up for seven seasons of futility. Telander even made the point that the team does have a covenant with their long time and loyal fans to put a major league product on the field. And the Cubs have not been doing their duty. And that is why many fans are upset with their team.

For whatever reason, whether it is pure stubbornness, stupidity or financial restraints, the front office is not changing the way it is operating the major league team. They continue to tear down the roster by trading away major league talent for minor league prospects. The pantry shelf is now bare; Starlin Castro is now the longest tenured Cub on the roster. And when James Russell and Emilio Bonifacio were traded at the deadline, their teammates seemed happy that they were leaving the team to go to a better club and a chance to win. Some fans react to this in a depressed way, thinking the Cubs have become the Walmart of the Majors - - - a discount store for major league players for other clubs.

Unless catching prospect Victor Caratini turns out to be the next Johnny Bench, the Cubs effectively traded $6.5 million in assets to the Braves for nothing. And that is a bitter pill to swallow.

The team's off off-Broadway production of HOPE is ending. If the writers have come around to find it a joke to continue to promote a dead horse, the general public is not that far behind (or ahead of the curve with the declining attendance numbers).  

But the show may turn into a tease soon enough. The current roster is so thin now, there is nothing stopping a promotion of any prospect. In fact, rumor has it that Jorge Soler will be at least a September call up because he would have been through a third of his $30 million/9 year contract. Fans would also like to see Javy Baez in September, but Jed Hoyer continues to knock down his time table (in a small market ritual to keep better prospects from earning service time "too soon" as to accelerate arbitration years). 

THE PRICE IS LOW

Jed Hoyer was on the sportscasts late last week after the trade deadline. He continued to mutter the mantra that "hopefully" the Cubs won't be sellers next year; that "hopefully" their top prospects will be reaching the majors soon; and "hopefully" things will fall into place so they can go out and get pitching a few years afterward.

Hope does not float a boat.

The trade of two major leaguers, Russell and Bonifacio, for a Class A catcher and CASH makes sense only if you believe David Kaplan's statement that the Cubs are tied by their loan covenants to only have a payroll of 110 percent of attendance revenue. The trade was a salary dump and a cash infusion for the Cubs. However, other reports indicate it was the Cubs who gave Atlanta a million dollars to "get the prospect they wanted." (If so, the move would be double the amount owed Russell and Bonifacio for the rest of the season, so the Braves get two major leaguers for free (?) What kind of deal is that for the Cubs?).  Putting the moves for the past several seasons, and salary dumps together, there is more circumstantial evidence that the Cubs do not have the fiscal pieces to make any significant changes to the ball club. One caveat to this analysis is that the Cubs sported a $144 million payroll at peak attendance; but now payroll has been slashed in half (but attendance has not). If the lenders are pressing loan covenants on the team, that means the bankers are not comfortable with their loan risk, even if the club is current in its payments.

Cubs peak attendance was around 3.2 million fans. Current projects show this season to be close to 2.4 million. That is a 25 percent drop under Ricketts ownership. Using the Cubs own internal revenue number per fan attending games, the Cubs lose $56 million in revenue this year from the peak years.

But still, at 2.4 million fans at an average face ticket price of $35 million, the payroll budget would still be around $92 million, and not at its current $75 million level. The "savings" has to go somewhere - - - to debt service or to the ever-changing Wrigley renovation plans.

There is also conflicting information on the broadcast fees. The Tribune has reported that the old WGN-TV deal paid the Cubs $250,000 per game while Comcast pays $500,000 per game. Earlier reports had Comcast only paying $350,000 per game. Even if the Cubs wanted to raise the rights fees $100,000 a WGN contest, that is only maybe another $5 million per season. With all the additional signage in Wrigley, advertising executives speculate that it will only bring in perhaps $10 to $14 million in new revenue. So basically, the Cubs cannot make up lost attendance revenue from new broadcast fees or additional Wrigley advertising.

And it appears despite all the "hope" messages, the financial situation is not going to change. The real problem is that people will not commit to a season of premium major league prices for minor league talent. The Cubs front office is positioning itself to have the playing field occupied by players at the major league minimum salary levels in half of those positions (LF, CF, 3B, 2B). A team dominated by rookie minimum salary prospects is the definition of a struggling small market team.

If we assume that the debt and ownership structure prevents the Cubs from operating like a real baseball team, then Ricketts is solely blame for accepting those terms. It also shows that if the payroll is so fixed that the team cannot truly make deals to bring in high quality players like David Price because their salaries breach a loan agreement, then the franchise is in quicksand.

Tampa Bay gave away Price to the Tigers.

The Tigers acquired David Price from the Rays by trading Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson  to the Mariners, with Nick Franklin (from Seattle) and Drew Smyly (from Detroit) heading to Tampa. Minor league shortstop Willy Adames is also going to Tampa from Detroit in the deal

MLBTR notes that the move brings and end to near-ceaseless speculation regarding the now-former Rays lefty, who has been one of the game’s best pitchers in recent seasons. Still only 28, Price is under control for one more season through arbitration, though he will certainly not come cheap.

Playing this year on a $14 million salary, Price will be in line for a big raise next year. Of course, one key element of his value lies in the fact that his new club will have an opportunity to explore an extension. The reason that Price figures to draw a big salary next year is obvious: he has continued to be outstanding. At present, he owns a 3.11 ERA with a remarkable 10.0 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9 over 170 2/3 innings.

The return for the Rays is not particularly splashy, but delivers obvious value. Smyly, 25, was outstanding last year as a reliever and has since converted into a solid starting option. He carries a 3.77 ERA through 100 1/3 innings, with 7.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 and a 36.9% ground ball rate. While his strikeout numbers are down since moving to the rotation, he can be controlled through 2018.

The 23-year-old Franklin, meanwhile, seemed without a future in Seattle after the club added Robinson Cano. Though he has spent time at both short and second, many observers believe he is better suited for the keystone going forward. He had a solid 2013 at the MLB level (.225/.303/.382 in 412 plate appearances), and though his numbers were off this year in limited action, Franklin has continued to swing a big stick against Triple-A pitchers.

Then, there is Adames, who could be something of a wild card in the deal. Just 18, he has a promising .269/.346/.428 slash line through 400 plate appearances at the low-A level this year. He entered the year as Baseball America’s 30th-ranked Tigers prospect, but appears to be raising eyebrows around the game.

Seattle  managed to address its center field need without giving up an indispensable prospects of the future. In fact, the 27-year-old Jackson will be at least a mid-term piece for Seattle. He is playing on a $6MM salary this year before hitting arbitration for the final time. He currently sports a .270/.330/.397 line that is approximately league average (as it was last year). With solid contributions in the field and on the bases, the Marineres believe he is certainly an above-average big league starter.

The Rays were still in playoff striking distance when the trade was made, signaling a white flag moment for the team. The Rays could have kept Price and traded him in the off-season. The only upside of the trade for Tampa is that they got three players who they can control and manage salary effectively for the next few years.

But Detroit now has a powerhouse post-season pitching staff, anchored now by the last THREE Cy Young Award Winners. It is a trade like this that moves the fan interest needle to HIGH. Clearly, based on the players moved, the Cubs had enough prospects and bodies to acquire Price from Tampa, but the Cubs (being perpetual sellers) were not even in any reported trade conversation. If the Cubs cannot make blockbuster deals for major league stars now, what is going to change this off-season to make it happen?