There is sudden push to change happening inside the Cubs.
Veteran journeymen are getting pushed off the roster by younger, untested players.
It seems that around August 1st, there were new marching orders on the North Side: bring in the kids.
The team is still on pace to lose more than 90 games this season. Attendance trends continue to be moving lower. Less attendance means less top line revenue. Less top line revenue means less money to pay for the expensive and now four year Wrigley reconstruction projects.
The end of this season is a litmus test for the organization: what kind of players do we have now.
Despite having their best player, Kris Bryant, stuck in AAA for the rest of the year to avoid the service time running to free agency, the Cubs seem desperate to change the major league roster and to energize new ticket sales or recapture the "hope" for the future. The Javy Baez HOF coronation seems to be tempered now that in his first 5 games he has gone 6 for 23, 3 HRs and 10 Ks. He has made some mistakes at second base, and most observers believe he is not suited for that position.
Jacob Turner, who was claimed off waivers, has quickly arrived at Wrigley to bolster the fading bullpen. Turner, however, projects more as a starter or at least that is what the front office is hoping for next year.
The shift from veteran journeymen to young minimum salary players can be cynically said to be a cost savings move by Ricketts. But the media continues to harp that the Cubs would be in the position to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on ace free agent pitchers like Jon Lester or James Shields. But it would have been more cost efficient to keep Jeff Samardzija than try to land a Lester for a 2015 team that still does not project to win 75 games. Star pitchers want to go to teams that can win championships. Despite the change of the new youth movement, the Cubs do not project as a championship caliber team. That is why it is very rare for a Marlins, Rays or Padres team signing an ace free agent pitcher - - - their culture and roster is not appealing to free agents who want to win now.
August 11, 2014
August 10, 2014
August 9, 2014
TURNER
Once one of the best Tiger pitching prospects, Jacob Turner wound up in a trade to the Marlins, who for head-scratching reasons, put him on waivers to clear a 40 man roster spot.
Just as bizarre, the woeful Rockies, in need of pitching, passed on Turner. The Cubs, next in line, put in a waiver claim. And apparently, got the young, prized pitcher for two minor leaguers.
The Tribune’s Paul Sullivan reports that two Class-A pitchers will be headed to the Marlins, and Keith Law follows up by saying hat it’ll be a pair of relievers, neither of whom is well-regarded.
Turner, 23, is a former first-round pick of the Tigers, and it wasn’t long ago that he was regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects. Acquired by Miami as the centerpiece to 2012′s Anibal Sanchez/Omar Infante deal with Detroit, Turner has struggled with the Marlins and was designated for assignment because he is out of minor league options. While the Marlins reportedly had lost patience with Turner after his struggles in both the rotation and the bullpen, the move is a curious one for a team that typically doesn’t spend much; cost-controllable starters with this type of upside are hard to come by, and Turner’s rotation spot will reportedly be filled by journeyman Brad Penny, making this decision a puzzling one, to say the least, according to MLBTR.
Though Turner’s ERA jumped from 3.74 last year (in 118 innings) to 5.97 in this year’s 78 1/3 innings, Turner’s K/9 rate, swinging strike rate and average fastball velocity have all increased (though the velocity is likely tied somewhat to his eventual transition to the bullpen). Meanwhile, his BB/9 rate has dipped from 4.1 to 2.6. He’s also seen his ground-ball rate spike from a solid 45.7 percent to a strong 51.3 percent this season.
Turner, who signed a Major League deal out of the draft (before the CBA banned such contracts), has a $1MM option for next season and can be controlled via arbitration once he has accumulated three years of Major League service. He’s controllable through at least the 2018 season for the Cubs.
From the Cubs 2015 prospective, Turner may fall into the fifth starter role or long relief. Since the Cubs need young starting pitching, one will think that the Cubs will hope Turner can be an effective starter in spring training.
Just as bizarre, the woeful Rockies, in need of pitching, passed on Turner. The Cubs, next in line, put in a waiver claim. And apparently, got the young, prized pitcher for two minor leaguers.
The Tribune’s Paul Sullivan reports that two Class-A pitchers will be headed to the Marlins, and Keith Law follows up by saying hat it’ll be a pair of relievers, neither of whom is well-regarded.
Turner, 23, is a former first-round pick of the Tigers, and it wasn’t long ago that he was regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects. Acquired by Miami as the centerpiece to 2012′s Anibal Sanchez/Omar Infante deal with Detroit, Turner has struggled with the Marlins and was designated for assignment because he is out of minor league options. While the Marlins reportedly had lost patience with Turner after his struggles in both the rotation and the bullpen, the move is a curious one for a team that typically doesn’t spend much; cost-controllable starters with this type of upside are hard to come by, and Turner’s rotation spot will reportedly be filled by journeyman Brad Penny, making this decision a puzzling one, to say the least, according to MLBTR.
Though Turner’s ERA jumped from 3.74 last year (in 118 innings) to 5.97 in this year’s 78 1/3 innings, Turner’s K/9 rate, swinging strike rate and average fastball velocity have all increased (though the velocity is likely tied somewhat to his eventual transition to the bullpen). Meanwhile, his BB/9 rate has dipped from 4.1 to 2.6. He’s also seen his ground-ball rate spike from a solid 45.7 percent to a strong 51.3 percent this season.
Turner, who signed a Major League deal out of the draft (before the CBA banned such contracts), has a $1MM option for next season and can be controlled via arbitration once he has accumulated three years of Major League service. He’s controllable through at least the 2018 season for the Cubs.
From the Cubs 2015 prospective, Turner may fall into the fifth starter role or long relief. Since the Cubs need young starting pitching, one will think that the Cubs will hope Turner can be an effective starter in spring training.
August 8, 2014
AHEAD OF ONE'S SELF
People are VERY excited by Javy Baez's coronation to the majors.
He is on pace to hit 162 HR and 270 RBI.
That would be awwwwwwww . . . . not gonna happen.
Baez has the free swinging approach similar to Starlin Castro when he made his splashy debut.
Fans are cheering Epstein and Hoyer for bringing the excitement back to Cub nation.
Again, Baez may be part of the plan but technically he was not part of Epstein's plan.
Castillo, Castro, Alcantara and Baez appear to many to be part of the "core" players that the team will be built around. Epstein's concept of "core" players was made early in his duties here as a means of telling the world that he was going to conduct a long, slow minor league system rebuild and re-stock the club with new, quality prospects.
Castillo, Castro, Alcantara and Baez have something else in common: they were all signed during the Jim Hendry era of Cub baseball.
It is not to say that when he first arrived Epstein can't play the cards he was dealt.
But he cannot take credit for fully developing any of the potential star players.
Kyle Hendricks was a Rangers prospect.
Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop were Orioles prospects.
Anthony Rizzo was a Red Sox prospect and Padre minor leaguer.
Hector Rondon was an Indians prospect.
Chris Coghlan was a Marlins prospect.
Travis Wood was a Reds prospects.
Edwin Jackson was a journeyman pitcher; the same with many bullpen arms and utility players like Luis Valbuena, Justin Ruggiano.
Junior Lake and Chris Rusin were also Henry prospects.
Epstein and Hoyer have churned the Cubs major league roster. And there have been some promotions of Cub minor leaguers to the Bigs. But at the present moment, none of the Epstein-Hoyer scouted and signed players have reached the majors. So, at best, their talent evaluation grade is incomplete.
He is on pace to hit 162 HR and 270 RBI.
That would be awwwwwwww . . . . not gonna happen.
Baez has the free swinging approach similar to Starlin Castro when he made his splashy debut.
Fans are cheering Epstein and Hoyer for bringing the excitement back to Cub nation.
Again, Baez may be part of the plan but technically he was not part of Epstein's plan.
Castillo, Castro, Alcantara and Baez appear to many to be part of the "core" players that the team will be built around. Epstein's concept of "core" players was made early in his duties here as a means of telling the world that he was going to conduct a long, slow minor league system rebuild and re-stock the club with new, quality prospects.
Castillo, Castro, Alcantara and Baez have something else in common: they were all signed during the Jim Hendry era of Cub baseball.
It is not to say that when he first arrived Epstein can't play the cards he was dealt.
But he cannot take credit for fully developing any of the potential star players.
Kyle Hendricks was a Rangers prospect.
Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop were Orioles prospects.
Anthony Rizzo was a Red Sox prospect and Padre minor leaguer.
Hector Rondon was an Indians prospect.
Chris Coghlan was a Marlins prospect.
Travis Wood was a Reds prospects.
Edwin Jackson was a journeyman pitcher; the same with many bullpen arms and utility players like Luis Valbuena, Justin Ruggiano.
Junior Lake and Chris Rusin were also Henry prospects.
Epstein and Hoyer have churned the Cubs major league roster. And there have been some promotions of Cub minor leaguers to the Bigs. But at the present moment, none of the Epstein-Hoyer scouted and signed players have reached the majors. So, at best, their talent evaluation grade is incomplete.
TINKER TO SECOND CHANCE
It seems that Tom Ricketts spends all day in his office tinkering with the Wrigley Field architectural legos. The rehabilitation plans for the park are constantly in flux. It took a FOIA request by the Tribune to find out what is actually in the "final" plans. From the fragmented reports, this is what I think is the current plan:
The first phase of the plan is to get the 7 outfield signs in as soon as possible. To do so, the back bleacher walls are to be moved 6 feet into the street; and the bleacher extended 12 feet over the streets. The new outfield signs will be anchored on this new structural support. The bleachers themselves are going to be mostly torn down in order to a) construct the under-the-bleachers bullpens and b) rebuild the outfield brick walls and ivy. Two light poles will be installed in the outfield corners. The new bleacher configuration may also support another bar/restaurant hidden under the bleachers near the gates.
The strangest part of the new plan are three "bunker" suites. We think that they are going to be constructed underground where the box seats abut the old LF bullpen area. The underground suites will have no view to the field, but will have a concourse to new box seats apparently in the area of the old Cubs bullpen. It would seem that the existing box seat sections will have to be torn up in order to construct these new bunkers, possibly in conjunction with the new clubhouse plans. Likewise, the RF box seats will be added extending from the visitors dugout the the bullpen to the foul pole. The likely result of these changes is that there will be little to no foul territory.
If you are puzzled why there is so much underground building, it seems to be the only way to monetize every single inch of Wrigley Field space. I really don't recall the public outcry for new luxury suites that have no view of Wrigley Field. I don't see stuffing a bullpen staff into a hot livestock pen under the bleachers on hot summer days is going to make them any better pitchers. And for all those Cub fans who still blame Bartman for alleged interference, without any foul territory there will be more fan "plays" in the future.
But what is really amazing is that the city approved a plan and the final submissions have substantial changes. The Tribune reported that the outside facades now will have large electronic ribbon advertising signs (like Times Square). But at the same time, Ricketts wants Wrigley Field to be put on the National Historic Register, so he can get a 20% tax break on the reconstruction costs. But clearly, Ricketts is not "preserving" the old park in its original state; he is totally transforming it into a Disney entertainment complex.
And now, the time line for the reconstruction will span four off seasons. So the work will not be completed until Opening Day 2018. And there were reports that the baseball operations will not have the freedom to spend until the business side maxes out on the revenue side. So the Cubs as a baseball operation may be handcuffed until 2018. Unless of course, the construction plans change - - - again.
The strangest part of the new plan are three "bunker" suites. We think that they are going to be constructed underground where the box seats abut the old LF bullpen area. The underground suites will have no view to the field, but will have a concourse to new box seats apparently in the area of the old Cubs bullpen. It would seem that the existing box seat sections will have to be torn up in order to construct these new bunkers, possibly in conjunction with the new clubhouse plans. Likewise, the RF box seats will be added extending from the visitors dugout the the bullpen to the foul pole. The likely result of these changes is that there will be little to no foul territory.
If you are puzzled why there is so much underground building, it seems to be the only way to monetize every single inch of Wrigley Field space. I really don't recall the public outcry for new luxury suites that have no view of Wrigley Field. I don't see stuffing a bullpen staff into a hot livestock pen under the bleachers on hot summer days is going to make them any better pitchers. And for all those Cub fans who still blame Bartman for alleged interference, without any foul territory there will be more fan "plays" in the future.
But what is really amazing is that the city approved a plan and the final submissions have substantial changes. The Tribune reported that the outside facades now will have large electronic ribbon advertising signs (like Times Square). But at the same time, Ricketts wants Wrigley Field to be put on the National Historic Register, so he can get a 20% tax break on the reconstruction costs. But clearly, Ricketts is not "preserving" the old park in its original state; he is totally transforming it into a Disney entertainment complex.
And now, the time line for the reconstruction will span four off seasons. So the work will not be completed until Opening Day 2018. And there were reports that the baseball operations will not have the freedom to spend until the business side maxes out on the revenue side. So the Cubs as a baseball operation may be handcuffed until 2018. Unless of course, the construction plans change - - - again.
August 7, 2014
ID THE CORE
Here is the Cubs current roster:
INF Javy Baez
OUTFIELDERS:
LF Chris Coghlan
ROTATION:
RHP Jake Arrieta
RHP Edwin Jackson
LHP Travis Wood
RHP Kyle Hendricks
LHP Tsuyoshi Wada
BULLPEN:
RHP Hector Rondon (closer)
LHP Wesley Wright
RHP Justin Grimm
RHP Brian Schlitter
RHP Carlos Villanueva
RHP Pedro Strop
LHP Chris Rusin
CATCHERS:
John Baker
Welington Castillo
INFIELDERS:
1B Anthony Rizzo
2B Arismendy Alcantara
SS Starlin Castro
3B Luis Valbuena
INF Chris ValaikaINF Javy Baez
OUTFIELDERS:
LF Chris Coghlan
CF Junior Lake
OF Ryan Sweeney
OF Justin Ruggiano
Objectively, which players will be part of the team during transition to competitve team and which players are CORE starters?
ROTATION: Arrieta, Jackson and Wood are going to be around for the next few years, but by the time the Cubs are competitive (maybe in 2018), they may not be still on the roster. Wada is a transition veteran pitcher. Perhaps Hendricks may be considered as a core rotation guy but he still needs to learn a steady out pitch since he does not have a dominate fast ball.
BULLPEN: Villaneuva, Schlitter, and Rusin are all AAAA guys holding a spot on a bad team. Strop and Grimm were acquired by the front office, but are replaceable as well as Wright. Maybe one could stay on as a bullpen specialist for the next few years. Rondon is being groomed as a closer so he appears to be potential core player.
CATCHER: Castillo is the core catcher by default since the Cubs
organization had no catching depth until the draft. The Cubs paid a ton
for Brave prospect Caratini so he may be the core catcher of the future.
INFIELDERS: The Cubs have used a vast collection of bench utility players to man the infield. Castro and Rizzo have been deemed core players for the future, however more and more Castro trade rumors will circle the press this off season. Alcantara started off fast but is returning to Earth, batting .255. He may be a transition player until Addison Russell and Javy Baez both hit the majors, for whom the front office has identified as core players. Baez has arrived like the team savior, which is overhyped expectation. Valbuena and Valaika may be supersubs on a competitive team, likely not the Cubs down the road.
OUTFIELDERS: Not one outfielder listed is considered a core player.
So maybe, at best, there are 5 "core" players on the Cubs 25 man major league roster (20%).
This shows that there still is a long way to go in the competitive rebuilding process.
August 6, 2014
WAIVER CLAIM
MLBTR recaps a very odd chain of events:
The Cubs have claimed Marlins righty Jacob Turner off revocable waivers, ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden was first to report (on Twitter). (Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com also reported the claim by the Cubs, on Twitter. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first tweeted that Turner had been claimed by a National League club.)
A deal is likely, of course, because Turner was designated for assignment and therefore would ultimately go back onto waivers if Miami were to pull him back. In that event, the same waiver priority order would apply. Only the Rockies (worst record in the National League) had a higher priority than the Cubs, meaning that Colorado passed on the chance to add the 23-year-old, once-hyped righty. That, seemingly, is a mystifying decision for an organization that has been clamoring for young pitching, especially given Turner’s increasing propensity for generating grounders.
Meanwhile, the Cubs seem likely to add yet another interesting young arm in need of a fresh start. In addition to showing a willingness to sign and flip veteran free agents, Chicago has targeted struggling-but-talented young pitchers through trade. After picking up Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop last year in the Scott Feldman deal, for instance, the Cubs recently took Felix Doubront off of the Red Sox’ hands.
From the Marlins’ perspective, this move comes at an odd time. Had the team decided to part with him just a week ago, it would have had a much stronger position from which to craft a trade. Instead, Miami’s only leverage against the Cubs would be the possibility that Colorado might not pass on Turner a second time if he were to reach outright waivers.
Turner was a highly touted and near untouchable Tiger prospect. But he has had trouble reaching the hype. He seems to be another down pitching prospect that the Cubs want to fish for (like Arrieta.)
In 53 GP over four seasons (40 in the last two), Turner has a record of 9-21, 4.77 ERA, 1.462 WHIP and career WAR of 0.1. Nothing to write home about.
Perhaps the release of Nate Schierholtz (to activate Fujikawa from 60 day DL) would be a better "catch" for the Rockies than a seemingly AAA pitching prospect in Turner (since the Cubs are playing the Rockies currently, there may have been some discussions about not taking someone off the wire).
It is doubtful that the Marlins, a mixed up organization to say the least, has any leverage to get a quality player from the Cubs since they have already made it known that Turner is not going to be kept on their 40 man roster. At best, maybe a low Class A pitcher like the Cubs got from the Dodgers for Barney.
A deal is likely, of course, because Turner was designated for assignment and therefore would ultimately go back onto waivers if Miami were to pull him back. In that event, the same waiver priority order would apply. Only the Rockies (worst record in the National League) had a higher priority than the Cubs, meaning that Colorado passed on the chance to add the 23-year-old, once-hyped righty. That, seemingly, is a mystifying decision for an organization that has been clamoring for young pitching, especially given Turner’s increasing propensity for generating grounders.
Meanwhile, the Cubs seem likely to add yet another interesting young arm in need of a fresh start. In addition to showing a willingness to sign and flip veteran free agents, Chicago has targeted struggling-but-talented young pitchers through trade. After picking up Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop last year in the Scott Feldman deal, for instance, the Cubs recently took Felix Doubront off of the Red Sox’ hands.
From the Marlins’ perspective, this move comes at an odd time. Had the team decided to part with him just a week ago, it would have had a much stronger position from which to craft a trade. Instead, Miami’s only leverage against the Cubs would be the possibility that Colorado might not pass on Turner a second time if he were to reach outright waivers.
Turner was a highly touted and near untouchable Tiger prospect. But he has had trouble reaching the hype. He seems to be another down pitching prospect that the Cubs want to fish for (like Arrieta.)
In 53 GP over four seasons (40 in the last two), Turner has a record of 9-21, 4.77 ERA, 1.462 WHIP and career WAR of 0.1. Nothing to write home about.
Perhaps the release of Nate Schierholtz (to activate Fujikawa from 60 day DL) would be a better "catch" for the Rockies than a seemingly AAA pitching prospect in Turner (since the Cubs are playing the Rockies currently, there may have been some discussions about not taking someone off the wire).
It is doubtful that the Marlins, a mixed up organization to say the least, has any leverage to get a quality player from the Cubs since they have already made it known that Turner is not going to be kept on their 40 man roster. At best, maybe a low Class A pitcher like the Cubs got from the Dodgers for Barney.
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