The Cubs avoided an arbitration hearing with Jake Arrieta.
AP reported that the sides agreed to a $10.7 million salary for the
2016 season. That marks the highest salary on a one-year deal for a
pitcher with four years of service, the AP notes. Arrieta and the Cubs
were set to go before an independent arbitrator but now can simply focus
on the season ahead.
Arrieta, 29, is in his second of three years of arbitration
eligibility. He had filed for $13 million while the Cubs countered at
$7.5 million. The $5.5 million gap was the largest among players who did
not come to terms with their respective teams by the January deadline.
The $10.7 million salary is $450,000 above the midpoint between the two
submitted figures.
Theo Epstein has prided himself on the fact that he does not take his players to hearings. They settle.
Players often come out of contested arbitration hearings with negative attitudes towards their clubs because general managers have to present a "negative" case against them. However, having a team policy of "no hearings" does give the player's agent more leverage on a settlement deal.
The $10.7 million settlement is the highest arb deal, beating out David Price's $10.1 million.
Arrieta is being paid for an excellent 2015 campaign. He now becomes the ace of the staff. Whether he can stay healthy after a record number of innings pitched is going to be the key to the 2015 campaign. He threw 45 percent more innings in 2015 than in 2014.
Many people have thought that the Cubs now should try to lock up Arrieta on a long term deal. However, players will not give up the chance to test the free agent market. He becomes a free agent in 2018, so the Cubs have two more years of service time with him. The Cubs would rather use the limited budget resources to fill the roster gaps than pay Arrieta on a long term deal.
Clearly, the championship window has opened for the Cubs. It has a realistic two year window because that is how long they will control Arrieta.
Showing posts with label arbitration. Show all posts
Showing posts with label arbitration. Show all posts
February 13, 2016
November 6, 2014
ARBITRATION FIGURES
MLBTR projects 2015 salaries the ten Cubs who can go to arbitration:
Cubs (10)
With Cot's having the Cubs 2015 payroll at $30.5 million, $25.5 in arbitration deals projects the Cubs 2015 major league payroll at approximately $56 million.
Cubs (10)
- John Baker (5.141) – $1.1MM
- Wesley Wright (5.105) – $2.0MM
- Chris Coghlan (4.148) – $1.4MM
- Luis Valbuena (4.148) – $3.1MM
- Justin Ruggiano (4.019) – $2.5MM
- Travis Wood (4.004) – $5.5MM
- Pedro Strop (3.156) – $2.4MM
- Jake Arrieta (3.145) – $4.1MM
- Felix Doubront (3.120) – $1.3MM
- Welington Castillo (3.009) – $2.1MM
With Cot's having the Cubs 2015 payroll at $30.5 million, $25.5 in arbitration deals projects the Cubs 2015 major league payroll at approximately $56 million.
February 10, 2014
BARNEY COMES TO TERM
It is reported that the Cubs have come to terms with .208 hitting second baseman
Darwin Barney. The new deal for a horrible 2013 campaign is $2.3 million - - -
a whopping RAISE from last year's $562,000 salary.
Who in their right mind gives a player a 300 percent RAISE after posting a negative 0.5 WAR
(which is less than a AAA replacement player value)??!
This goes to show that the Boston Way Epstein was used to (overspending to overcompensate for problems) is alive and well on the North Side.
It also goes to show that there is a serious disconnect between the front office's performance and player value formulas. Or that the Cubs have gone back to "hope" that a player will suddenly turn back the clock and play like he did two or more years ago.
Barney may be a nice guy. A good clubhouse leader. A good press interview. The face of the franchise. A popular bobblehead. But he is not a quality second baseman.
In his best season, 2012, the Cubs lost 101 games. He had a career best 3.6 dWAR. Last year, that even slipped to 1.5 dWAR.
Darwin Barney. The new deal for a horrible 2013 campaign is $2.3 million - - -
a whopping RAISE from last year's $562,000 salary.
Who in their right mind gives a player a 300 percent RAISE after posting a negative 0.5 WAR
(which is less than a AAA replacement player value)??!
This goes to show that the Boston Way Epstein was used to (overspending to overcompensate for problems) is alive and well on the North Side.
It also goes to show that there is a serious disconnect between the front office's performance and player value formulas. Or that the Cubs have gone back to "hope" that a player will suddenly turn back the clock and play like he did two or more years ago.
Barney may be a nice guy. A good clubhouse leader. A good press interview. The face of the franchise. A popular bobblehead. But he is not a quality second baseman.
In his best season, 2012, the Cubs lost 101 games. He had a career best 3.6 dWAR. Last year, that even slipped to 1.5 dWAR.
January 29, 2014
ARB PROCESS
Baseball arbitration is both an art form and cutthroat business negotiation.
The player submits a figure of his worth through his agent, and the team submits its figure for a one year contract. The arbitrator can only decide on one or the other figure. It is winner take all after arguments from both sides.
Part of the process is that if it goes to a hearing, players hear for the first time highly negative comments about their skills from their team. Teams attempt to downgrade the player's accomplishments or stat lines in order to convince the arbitrator that a lower salary is correct.
Normally, the player and team come to an agreement (an inbetween sum) and avoid the hassles of an actual hearing. But not always. Ryan Theriot took the Cubs through the hearing process, and was later traded within that year.
Sabermetrics has filled volumes of information on how one can value a player.
But there has been a fairly standard rule of thumb in regard to arbitration figures. Normally, a first time arb player would get around 1/3 of a comparable veteran's salary. A second year player, 50 percent. A third and final year arb player would get 2/3. Each time the young player would be receiving a hefty raise. However, there are exceptions when, say, a pitcher wins the Cy Young and demands current market value.
Travis Wood signed a new deal with the Cubs to avoid his first year arbitration. The sum was $3.9 million. Wood had a break-out season in 2013, with a 4.4 WAR, leading the Cubs pitching staff.
A veteran with a 4.4 WAR could probably command around $24.2 million (based upon $5.5 million/WAR). Under that valuation, Wood would have been worth $7.99 million. However, the team would look at it more towards career performance, at 6.3 WAR over 4 seasons. The average WAR times value would equate to a current player contract value of $2.8 million.
And this is the type of argument that both sides would engage in at a hearing. So it always better to try to keep the peace and settle arbitration cases prior to the hearing. In Wood's case, it seems that the sides agreed to a contract which rewarded Wood for his fine 2014 season.
The player submits a figure of his worth through his agent, and the team submits its figure for a one year contract. The arbitrator can only decide on one or the other figure. It is winner take all after arguments from both sides.
Part of the process is that if it goes to a hearing, players hear for the first time highly negative comments about their skills from their team. Teams attempt to downgrade the player's accomplishments or stat lines in order to convince the arbitrator that a lower salary is correct.
Normally, the player and team come to an agreement (an inbetween sum) and avoid the hassles of an actual hearing. But not always. Ryan Theriot took the Cubs through the hearing process, and was later traded within that year.
Sabermetrics has filled volumes of information on how one can value a player.
But there has been a fairly standard rule of thumb in regard to arbitration figures. Normally, a first time arb player would get around 1/3 of a comparable veteran's salary. A second year player, 50 percent. A third and final year arb player would get 2/3. Each time the young player would be receiving a hefty raise. However, there are exceptions when, say, a pitcher wins the Cy Young and demands current market value.
Travis Wood signed a new deal with the Cubs to avoid his first year arbitration. The sum was $3.9 million. Wood had a break-out season in 2013, with a 4.4 WAR, leading the Cubs pitching staff.
A veteran with a 4.4 WAR could probably command around $24.2 million (based upon $5.5 million/WAR). Under that valuation, Wood would have been worth $7.99 million. However, the team would look at it more towards career performance, at 6.3 WAR over 4 seasons. The average WAR times value would equate to a current player contract value of $2.8 million.
And this is the type of argument that both sides would engage in at a hearing. So it always better to try to keep the peace and settle arbitration cases prior to the hearing. In Wood's case, it seems that the sides agreed to a contract which rewarded Wood for his fine 2014 season.
January 20, 2014
SHARK FIN SOUP
Jeff Samardzija is heading out of town soon.
The pitcher and Cubs can't agree on an extension.
And they can't come close on valuing the Shark's services.
In arbitration, Samardzija has filed for $6.2 million, with the Cubs are at $4.4 million.
The Cubs low balled him because $4.4 million is easier to trade for a mid-level
starting pitcher than $6.2 million.
Samardzija continues to loudly hint that he is fed up with management's "R word,"
now a derogatory term for "rebuilding." He hinted that if the Cubs were serious about
fielding a good team, the signing of Masahiro Tanaka would be a good start; good
enough to get Samardzija to think about a contract extension.
No matter all the media reports of the Cubs at the table ready to spend whatever it
takes to sign Tanaka, the Japanese star is not coming to Chicago. There is no reason
to when high profile teams like the Dodgers and Yankees really want his services.
It is better to get established on a winning team at age 25, with the possibility of a
second huge contract at age 30-31. The Cubs cannot offer Tanaka, or even Samardzija,
the roster support to become a 20 game winner anytime soon.
And the Cubs pitch to Tanaka that he would be part of a historic "rebuilding" process
has to sound absurd even in translation. If he wanted to play for a AAA caliber team,
he could have stayed in Japan.
Samardzija is not buying the front office sales pitch. He doesn't have to. He has two more years of Cub contract control before he hits the free agent market. So long as he remains healthy, he will have a second chance with another team, sooner or later. That is his career rebuilding plan.
The pitcher and Cubs can't agree on an extension.
And they can't come close on valuing the Shark's services.
In arbitration, Samardzija has filed for $6.2 million, with the Cubs are at $4.4 million.
The Cubs low balled him because $4.4 million is easier to trade for a mid-level
starting pitcher than $6.2 million.
Samardzija continues to loudly hint that he is fed up with management's "R word,"
now a derogatory term for "rebuilding." He hinted that if the Cubs were serious about
fielding a good team, the signing of Masahiro Tanaka would be a good start; good
enough to get Samardzija to think about a contract extension.
No matter all the media reports of the Cubs at the table ready to spend whatever it
takes to sign Tanaka, the Japanese star is not coming to Chicago. There is no reason
to when high profile teams like the Dodgers and Yankees really want his services.
It is better to get established on a winning team at age 25, with the possibility of a
second huge contract at age 30-31. The Cubs cannot offer Tanaka, or even Samardzija,
the roster support to become a 20 game winner anytime soon.
And the Cubs pitch to Tanaka that he would be part of a historic "rebuilding" process
has to sound absurd even in translation. If he wanted to play for a AAA caliber team,
he could have stayed in Japan.
Samardzija is not buying the front office sales pitch. He doesn't have to. He has two more years of Cub contract control before he hits the free agent market. So long as he remains healthy, he will have a second chance with another team, sooner or later. That is his career rebuilding plan.
October 7, 2013
ARBITRATION CUBS
MLBTR reports that the Cubs have nine players eligible for arbitration this off season. The site projects that if the Cubs keep all nine players, the cost would be around $21.5 million.
The top tier arb players are starting pitchers Jeff Samaradzija and Travis Wood. Wood had a much better season than Samardzija, but the Shark has an extra year of service time so he will get paid more.
Samardzija made $2.64 million last season. He is 28 years old. He is under team control to 2016. It is estimated that he will get approximately 85 percent raise to close to $5 million for 2014. The question is whether the Cubs really want to extend him. I don't think Samardzija wants to stay a Cub long term. He is frustrated with the way the major league roster has been constructed to lose more than win. There is also an outside chance that Samardzija would be traded at the winter meetings.
Wood made the major league minimum last season ($528k). He is 26 years old. It is estimated that he will get a big boost to $3.6 million for next year. Wood is also another candidate to buy out his arbitration years like the Cubs did for Castro and Rizzo.
Others pitchers expected to be tendered a contract include front office favorite Daniel Bard, picked up off waivers from Boston. Though Bard did little this season, if the team thinks he can be a solid bullpen player, it will cost around $1.9 million. Petro Strop may be groomed for a closer role, and he is expected to receive $1 million next year. James Russell is also on the list. He was overworked this season and his performance suffered the same way as Shaun Camp did two years ago. It would seem that the Cubs would pay $1.7 million to keep the lefty specialist in 2014.
On the position side, the enigma that is Darwin Barney is up for renewal. He is a plus defender but an awful hitter. At a projected $2.1 million, the Cubs may sign him with the prospect of trading him in the off-season package. Luis Valbuena and Donnie Moore probably need to be re-signed just so there is a warm body at third base on opening day. The duo will cost around $2.5 million to keep. However, it would not be surprising that the Cubs only keep one of them. Darnell McDonald will not be offered arbitration since he does not fit into any rebuilding plans.
The most expensive person may be Nate Schierholtz. MLBTR projects him to make $3.8 million, but with career high in HRs (21), RBI (68), solid average (.301) and 1.4 WAR on a bad team makes him more valuable. At 29, Schierholtz may still be considered a platoon RF for most teams. If he projects as a starter, he could make $5 million next season. There will probably be some interest in trading him in the off-season, but since he is not blocking any prospect at the moment, and he is a free agent in 2015, the Cubs could afford to keep him.
The top tier arb players are starting pitchers Jeff Samaradzija and Travis Wood. Wood had a much better season than Samardzija, but the Shark has an extra year of service time so he will get paid more.
Samardzija made $2.64 million last season. He is 28 years old. He is under team control to 2016. It is estimated that he will get approximately 85 percent raise to close to $5 million for 2014. The question is whether the Cubs really want to extend him. I don't think Samardzija wants to stay a Cub long term. He is frustrated with the way the major league roster has been constructed to lose more than win. There is also an outside chance that Samardzija would be traded at the winter meetings.
Wood made the major league minimum last season ($528k). He is 26 years old. It is estimated that he will get a big boost to $3.6 million for next year. Wood is also another candidate to buy out his arbitration years like the Cubs did for Castro and Rizzo.
Others pitchers expected to be tendered a contract include front office favorite Daniel Bard, picked up off waivers from Boston. Though Bard did little this season, if the team thinks he can be a solid bullpen player, it will cost around $1.9 million. Petro Strop may be groomed for a closer role, and he is expected to receive $1 million next year. James Russell is also on the list. He was overworked this season and his performance suffered the same way as Shaun Camp did two years ago. It would seem that the Cubs would pay $1.7 million to keep the lefty specialist in 2014.
On the position side, the enigma that is Darwin Barney is up for renewal. He is a plus defender but an awful hitter. At a projected $2.1 million, the Cubs may sign him with the prospect of trading him in the off-season package. Luis Valbuena and Donnie Moore probably need to be re-signed just so there is a warm body at third base on opening day. The duo will cost around $2.5 million to keep. However, it would not be surprising that the Cubs only keep one of them. Darnell McDonald will not be offered arbitration since he does not fit into any rebuilding plans.
The most expensive person may be Nate Schierholtz. MLBTR projects him to make $3.8 million, but with career high in HRs (21), RBI (68), solid average (.301) and 1.4 WAR on a bad team makes him more valuable. At 29, Schierholtz may still be considered a platoon RF for most teams. If he projects as a starter, he could make $5 million next season. There will probably be some interest in trading him in the off-season, but since he is not blocking any prospect at the moment, and he is a free agent in 2015, the Cubs could afford to keep him.
January 18, 2012
ARBITRATION
Major league general managers have this point of personal pride of not having players test their judgment or authority by going to a salary arbitration hearing. Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry was boastful about his signing record, until Ryan Theriot refused his offer and went to arbitration (and lost). Within the year, Theriot was traded by the Cubs, which some may not see as a "cause and effect" move while others will say the message was pretty clear. Hendry demanded loyalty.
New Cubs GM Theo Epstein has a record of never having a player go to an arbitration hearing. The Cubs had seven eligible players. The Cubs settled six of the seven before the deadline to submit salary figures. Starting pitcher Matt Garza was the lone Cub hold-out. Garza had been the center of attention in trade talks to the Tigers and Yankees. Then the Yankees made a blockbuster prospect deal with the Mariners to find a young stud starter, and then the Tigers shifted emphasis to acquiring a replacement bat for injured DH Victor Martinez. Garza, 28, is the Cubs #1 starter by a wide margin. And Garza and his agent expect to be paid like a top tier starter.
Which brings into play the illogical disconnect and inconsistency of arbitration demands and negotiated salaries. In the arbitration procedure, the player submits a sum for a one year deal, and the team submits its figure. The arbitrator hears evidence from both sides then picks which number is the best fit for based on that evidence. It is either the player's or the owner's number that wins out. It is the roll of the loaded dice. However, both sides can settle the case before an award is decided.
The baseball community was that Garza would get between $8 to $9 million in an arbitration. The consensus was $8.75 million. Garza made $5.95 million last season.
Garza has submitted a figure of $12.5 million, which is a 111.9 percent raise from 2011. The Cubs submitted a figure of $7.95 million, which is a 33.9 percent raise from 2011. No one will be sponsoring a tag day for Garza if he loses the arbitration, but the difference between the two valuations is quite wide. If the consensus is the fair market valuation for Garza, it is more probable he would not win the arbitration. However, veteran 4th starters commanded more than $10 million in free agency this off season.
By comparison, Epstein and Hoyer re-signed the other arbitration players (arbitration year) (consensus award amount) in this fashion:
* Jeff Baker (3rd year): $1.4m; signed for $1.375m (17% raise)
* Blake DeWitt (1st year): $1.2m; signed for $1.1m (139% raise)
* Matt Garza (3rd year): $8.7m NO DEAL
* Geovany Soto (2nd year): $4m; signed for $4.3m (43.33% raise)
* Ian Stewart (2nd year): $2.3m; signed for $2.237 (0.4% raise)
* Chris Volstad (1st year): $2.7m; signed for $2.655m (497% raise)
* Randy Wells (1st year): $2.2m signed for $2.705m (470% raise)
In the real world, none of these players would deserve a raise based upon their 2011 performance. But this is baseball, a fantasy league within itself.
If you use the measure how management values its employees by how BIG a raise they grant, then by that measure, Epstein and Hoyer value Volstad, Wells and DeWitt more than Garza. The Cubs pretty much hit consensus marks on all their arbitration players except Wells, for whom they will pay 23% more than expected for a pitcher that may not even be the team's fifth starter (current rotation projection is Garza, Maholm, Dempster, T. Wood and Volstad). Of course, that changes if Garza is traded, which is now more likely based upon the gulf between the two arbitration figures. If Garza wins the arbitration, it makes him harder to trade.
New Cubs GM Theo Epstein has a record of never having a player go to an arbitration hearing. The Cubs had seven eligible players. The Cubs settled six of the seven before the deadline to submit salary figures. Starting pitcher Matt Garza was the lone Cub hold-out. Garza had been the center of attention in trade talks to the Tigers and Yankees. Then the Yankees made a blockbuster prospect deal with the Mariners to find a young stud starter, and then the Tigers shifted emphasis to acquiring a replacement bat for injured DH Victor Martinez. Garza, 28, is the Cubs #1 starter by a wide margin. And Garza and his agent expect to be paid like a top tier starter.
Which brings into play the illogical disconnect and inconsistency of arbitration demands and negotiated salaries. In the arbitration procedure, the player submits a sum for a one year deal, and the team submits its figure. The arbitrator hears evidence from both sides then picks which number is the best fit for based on that evidence. It is either the player's or the owner's number that wins out. It is the roll of the loaded dice. However, both sides can settle the case before an award is decided.
The baseball community was that Garza would get between $8 to $9 million in an arbitration. The consensus was $8.75 million. Garza made $5.95 million last season.
Garza has submitted a figure of $12.5 million, which is a 111.9 percent raise from 2011. The Cubs submitted a figure of $7.95 million, which is a 33.9 percent raise from 2011. No one will be sponsoring a tag day for Garza if he loses the arbitration, but the difference between the two valuations is quite wide. If the consensus is the fair market valuation for Garza, it is more probable he would not win the arbitration. However, veteran 4th starters commanded more than $10 million in free agency this off season.
By comparison, Epstein and Hoyer re-signed the other arbitration players (arbitration year) (consensus award amount) in this fashion:
* Jeff Baker (3rd year): $1.4m; signed for $1.375m (17% raise)
* Blake DeWitt (1st year): $1.2m; signed for $1.1m (139% raise)
* Matt Garza (3rd year): $8.7m NO DEAL
* Geovany Soto (2nd year): $4m; signed for $4.3m (43.33% raise)
* Ian Stewart (2nd year): $2.3m; signed for $2.237 (0.4% raise)
* Chris Volstad (1st year): $2.7m; signed for $2.655m (497% raise)
* Randy Wells (1st year): $2.2m signed for $2.705m (470% raise)
In the real world, none of these players would deserve a raise based upon their 2011 performance. But this is baseball, a fantasy league within itself.
If you use the measure how management values its employees by how BIG a raise they grant, then by that measure, Epstein and Hoyer value Volstad, Wells and DeWitt more than Garza. The Cubs pretty much hit consensus marks on all their arbitration players except Wells, for whom they will pay 23% more than expected for a pitcher that may not even be the team's fifth starter (current rotation projection is Garza, Maholm, Dempster, T. Wood and Volstad). Of course, that changes if Garza is traded, which is now more likely based upon the gulf between the two arbitration figures. If Garza wins the arbitration, it makes him harder to trade.
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