Tonight is the annual baseball selection draft. The Cubs have the second overall selection. The consensus is that the Cubs will select a college pitcher, either Mark Appel or Jonathan Gray. I have lobbied for third baseman Kris Bryant or Colin Moran (if Bryant is taken by Houston at #1). I believe the Cubs glaring need throughout the organization is at third base. Scouts believe there is a huge drop off in talent after the first round for position players.
The last time the Cubs were in this position (#2 pick), everyone thought Mark Prior was the best player in the draft. Prior would be drafted by the Twins. But the small market Twins went with their homegrown guy, Joe Mauer instead (to save money), which led to the Cubs selecting Prior. How did that work out?
Each team will have its draft boards of the best available player, ranked by skills and by position.
But the smart teams will also have their organizational rosters to cross check where those potential picks will be assigned once they are signed by the team.
Teams are drafting raw talent. Teams use their minor league system to develop that raw talent into major leaguers. The chances of making a major league roster are slim;. Only 5.6 percent of high school athletes and 10.5 college players drafted will make a big league roster in their careers. SI notes that of the top picks from 1990-2010, the #1 pick had 18 of 21 selections make the majors, #2 pick had 20 of 21, and the #3 pick had 17 of 21. Of those picks, #1 pick included 11 All-Stars, #2 picks, 8 All Stars, and #3 pick, 3 All Stars.
It makes common sense that college players should be more polished than high school players. College players have more competitive experience. They should have played against a higher caliber of competition.
The Cubs have been rebuilding with high school, college and international players. However, the Cubs have put all their recent signees into Rookie and Class A ball. On a normal promotion path, players at that level today will take four years to get to the major leagues. That means 2016-2017 for the Cubs.
A different way of seeding the minor league system is give credence to a drafted player's past experience.
If you have a high round college player from a big baseball conference (Pac 12, Big Ten, SEC, ACC) or baseball school, one would look to slot them in Triple AAA.
If you have a high round college player from a small baseball conference or lower division, but has 3 or 4 years of college experience, one would look to slot them in Double AA.
If you have middle round college player or a junior college athlete, one would look to slot them in High A. If you have a lower round college or very skilled high school player, one would look to slot them in Low Class A.
The rest of the picks would be allotted towards Low Class A or Rookie ball.
One should expect that if the Cubs drafted Appel, Gray, Bryant or Moran, that pick would be assigned to AAA Iowa. If one is truly concerned about something in their current make up, an argument could be made to start them in AA Tennessee. (But if you have that concern, why draft him at #2?) To slot such a high pick any lower is like a hoarder guarding old pizza boxes in a dank low income apartment. It impedes the development track to put a player below what he should be placed at (some would say if you do that to boost a young player's confidence, where he would blow away the competition, that is fine but you destroy those talents if he begins by underperforming or being average.)
The Cubs need to look to fast track their selections since they have made the decision not to be big players in the veteran free agent market.
