Most major league clubs have begun to sign their top prospects. However, the Cubs have been quite silent.
The Cubs have $10,556,500 to spend in draft bonus money. The number two pick, Kris Bryant, is slotted a bonus of $6,708,400 (in comparison the No. 1 pick is slotted at $7,790,400).
The slot value for the Cubs’ second round pick is $1,361,900, the
third round pick is $736,200, and the fourth round pick is $477,300. By
the 10th round, that figure has slid down to $139,000.
The bonus pool slot values are critical stops because if a team exceeds
its bonus budget, it is subject to severe penalties. If a team fails to
sign a player, the slot value from that pick is removed from the bonus
pool. This is why most teams heavily taking college seniors in rounds six through ten because seniors have little leverage. Picks after the 10th round have no slot value (and you
don’t lose any bonus pool money for failing to sign them), but any
amount given to them in excess of $100,000 counts against the bonus
pool. Any team that exceeds its pool by 0 to 5% must pay a 75% tax on the
amount of the overage. Any team that exceeds its pool by more than 5%
but less than 10% must pay a 75% tax on the amount of the overage AND
loses a first round draft pick. No team needs to pay a penalty or lose a draft pick.
So why are the Cubs perceived to be slow to sign their picks. The problem is that there top four picks may ALL want to be paid more than slot value.
For example, agent Scott Boras may think Bryant, the best hitter by far in the draft, deserves No. 1 pick money. That would go contrary to what a team wants - - - it needs to underpay for their top picks in order to overpay for later round selections.
In addition, the Cubs drafted several college juniors who have the option of returning to school. By not signing a junior, the team does not have the option of reallocating that slot money to other picks.
In
the fourth round, the Cubs took Kent St. junior pitcher Tyler Skulina at
#108 overall. Baseball America had him ranked as the No. 73 prospect,
so his draft stock fell two rounds. Skulina may believe he is worth $1.3 million instead of $477,000. Likewise, fifth round pick Trey Masek at #138 had been ranked the 49th best prospect by Baseball America. He also may think he is worth $1 million more rather than the slot value.
If true, the Cubs would need to shave a million dollars off Bryant's bonus number in order to sign Skulina or Masek, and underpay for their third round selection, the 22 year old BYU freshman outfielder Jacob Hannemann.
If Mark Appel's example rings true with other top college junior pitchers, one can go back to school at double your bonus. Appel fell to the Pirates in 2012 and he was offered $3.8 million to sign. He refused. This year, as the Number One pick, he is expected to sign for the $7.7 million value.
So the Cubs are probably at a stalemate. If they sign Bryant first, then they will have less money to pay for the junior pitcher class. If they attempt to overpay for the junior pitchers first, they may not have enough money to pay for Bryant.
The priority would be to sign Bryant, because he projects to a middle of the order power bat that may only be a season and a half away from the big leagues. But the front office may need to accelerate their rebuilding by trying to steal a few junior pitchers with first round talent at fourth round prices.
