LICENSE TO KILL

 Brew Crew Ball posts:

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a minor league baseball game. The 2020 MiLB season was lost because of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and the status of 2021 is still uncertain as the pandemic continues. However, planning for the minor leagues is still underway. Earlier this year, MLB announced their decision to take control of the minor leagues and restructure them. Small pieces of information have been coming out since then, but nothing substantial has been confirmed yet. That could come as early as next week, as J.J. Cooper of Baseball America reports that MLB is nearing their decision on the minor league teams.

Though the full details are not known, the structure of the leagues appears to be set. There will be the same four top levels, with leagues in each level. Here’s how the Baseball America report breaks down the leagues:

• Triple-A: East and West
• Double-A: Central, South, and Northeast
• High-A: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Northwest
• Low-A: California, Florida, Carolina/South Atlantic

News from Fresno situation confirms major changes will happen. Fresno was a AAA team. Under MLB's plan, it was told to change to Class A or fold. Fresno, like most other minor league cities, has a municipal ball park and associated public debt. No team, no lease payments. The strong arm tactic worked. In addition, Fresno and the team owner had to sign off on a legal waiver of claims against MLB as part of the deal. This foretells there will be litigation on the horizon.

Part of the agreement reported on the Fresno deal was that the Fresno team could apply "for a license" to operate a minor league team from MLB. This is another significant change. In the past, each minor league team was an independent business entity or organization. It has "affiliate" agreements in which major league teams would pay money and assign player contracts to the clubs. Players without a major league contract could be bought and sold.

Major league owners through the league somehow believe they "own" the sport. To "license" intellectual property means you own a brand, a product or a service. Baseball itself is in the public domain. But to "license" a team is different than the first rumor that MLB would "franchise" minor league teams. A franchise is a security regulated by state laws. A license agreement is not; it is controlled under contract law. Even though MLB can put in restrictions in these new license agreements, new club owners probably will have little recourse.

Minor League players already have a class action pending against MLB for unpaid wages under federal law. MLB's new minor league plan would eliminate 40 clubs and 1000 players. The cut clubs and players will not be happy with MLB's strong arm tactics. The cities and towns affected by the loss of their minor league teams will be upset. Anyone with a long term view of the sport needs to be troubled because minor league baseball is still one of the major ways to hook young kids into being baseball fans.

It is clear that MLB owners want to save money. They do not think they are getting enough value for the millions spent on minor league development system. It is surprising that the owners finished the short 2020 season with a 35 man taxi squad/minor league practice team. That model makes one wonder if that may be the next minor league contraction (similar to the small NBA development league).

SHUFFLING THE DECK CHAIRS

 Everyone knows the Cubs are a sinking ship. Tom Ricketts continues to declare "biblical" losses during the 2020 season. Theo Epstein could not part the sea of red ink. So Theo decided to bail; he cut a deal where his friend, Jed Hoyer, would retain his job with the new President title. The move saves Ricketts $10 million in Theo's 2021 salary. (The Athletic reported that recently the Cubs laid off 100 employees which we assume does not count the scouting and minor league staff let go early in the year.)

The Cubs are still a highly leveraged (debtor) team. The Ricketts family is also highly leveraged due to their overbuilding around Wrigley Field. The pandemic crushed their real estate holdings as many tenants, including Joe Maddon's restaurant, went out of business. Tom Ricketts had convinced his parents that the Cubs were a money making machine even in bad times (under the Tribune ownership).

But the Cubs bowing out early in the playoffs since the World Championship has hurt the club, both financially and structurally. Theo and Jed put all their eggs in early first round (can't miss) prospects like Bryant, Schwarber, Almora and Happ while overpaying for free agents to fill roster gaps (especially in pitching.) 

Since 2016, the team core (Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras and Schwarber) have not lived up to high expectations. Instead of a dynasty, the Cubs gained one World Championship (which was a generational accomplishment not to be dismissed in their legacy). But as 2021 is around the corner, the cupboard is bare.

Three fifths of the starting rotation is gone to free agency. The core of Bryant, Baez, Rizzo and Schwarber are in their final contract years. The Cubs minor league system is devoid of any major prospects. The system ranked 26th with Nico Hoerner the only Top 100 prospect.

2021 appears heading toward a "crash and burn" season. The pundits believe the Cubs should trade their pending free agents to get something for them (other than a compensation draft pick). But others note that those players are coming off bad seasons so they have little trade value. A few writers even speculated that the Cubs could non-tender Schwarber to save his projected $8 million arbitration award. No team is going to take Bryant and his $18.5 million projected salary as a rental player, especially with his injury history and poor 2020 stats.

The only players with real trade value are Darvish and Hendricks. But Hoyer cannot be insane to trade away his remaining starters for prospects. Internal candidates to fill the rotation are Mills, Alzolay and Rea. Ian Happ was the only player to show a break out potential to other clubs. But trading Happ leaves Almora the sole center field candidate.

Even though money came off the books (Lester, Chatwood, Quintana), that money appears to be lost in 2021 as Ricketts clearly indicated that the payroll must come down substantially. As of today, there is not one AAA player who projects to be a starting MLB player. 

Another problem is that the fan base may not support another complete tear-down rebuild. The Cubs were good enough in a bad division to have middle round draft picks but it will be more hit and miss since the scouting department was gutted in 2020. Player development has always been an issue for this team. Hoyer indicated that he may rely more on advanced stats than scouting eyes. But that has been the problem with stat overload on major league players (and a rotation of coaches preaching new approaches). 

The Epstein era had the Worst of Times and the Best of Times and now fades back to the Worst of Times. For diehard Cub fans, the White Sox resurgence with young, exciting players, is going to be bitter pill to swallow as the Cubs begin to wallow.

THE BIG CHANGE IN THE LITTLE SHOW

 The current MLB and minor league cooperative contract has expired. MLB is making a dramatic move on how it treats the minor league system.

In the past, the minor leagues were independent ball clubs. Minor league teams created their own leagues. Those leagues then made agreements with MLB in regard to player contracts. MLB teams draft and sign players to contracts. Those contracts are "assigned" to a minor a league club that has a working developmental agreement. Major league teams helps pay certain costs and provides staff such as head coach and pitching staff to minor league teams. Minor league teams were responsible for scheduling games, paying players, and coaching them for promotion. But not all players on a minor league roster have a major league agreement. During a season, a minor league team can "sell" or assign their player contracts to their affiliate major league team. In the past, this is how many smaller minor league owners made a good deal of money for their teams.

In 2020, the minor league system, relying on attendance as a major revenue source, shut down. 

As a result, MLB teams decided to create 60 man squads (40 man roster plus another 20 players). The teams split them into an active roster (for most of the season) and a training squad at a separate location to fill in for injured players. It did provide top prospects the opportunity to reach the major leagues quicker than the normal path.

The MLB split squad concept worked well. We thought that MLB may decide to eliminate the minor league system in favor of a modified in-house training squad. But MLB had a bigger fish to catch.

MLB had been hinting that it wanted to eliminate at least 40 minor league teams from their affiliate status with major league clubs. Minor league baseball teams, especially the lower classes in small rural markets, were upset by that proposal. 

MLBTR reports that changes for MLB and MiLB’s working partnership have been moved forward.  The agreement between the two entities recently expired, and MLB now plans to bring the minor league system under their governance. MLB took a big step towards accomplishing their goals this week.

MLB released a statement announcing their plans to transplant the minor league offices to MLB’s headquarters in New York City, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. Shaikin also notes that MLB is now referring to minor league clubs as “licensed affiliates.”

By joining the offices to MLB headquarters, the minors are now a branch of MLB, notes Maury Brown of Forbes. Part of this process is the hiring of Peter Freund and Trinity Sports Consultants to help MLB and their new “licensed affiliates” transition. Freund owns minor league clubs at three levels, and he is a partner with the Yankees. His broader responsibilities will be in spearheading MLB’s efforts to build a cohesive minor league system and “implementing a modern approach to player development,” per MLB’s statement.

It would seem that the old independent clubs are now being turned into minor league "MLB franchises" like your local McDonald's or Burger King. If true, MLB (and/or MLB clubs) will get to set standards and practices that all minor league teams must follow.

MLB has taken a lot of heat for their movement in this direction, specifically for insufficient minor league players salaries and the cutting of some 40 teams from the minor league system. Minor league ballplayers recently won early round of class action litigation when the Supreme Court denied MLB’s appeal, thereby granting players to move forward on their labor payroll lawsuit against Major League Baseball. Basically any minor league player since 2009 can now join the suit in suing MLB for violation of minimum wage laws. This is one of the many issues that MLB hopes to address over the coming months.

But one thing is certain: the traditional minor league system is going to drastically changed by MLB.

MORE CHANGES

It is official: the minor and Mexican leagues have canceled their 2020 seasons.

If there will be pro ball, it will be MLB.

It is still a big "if."

With a 60 man roster for a 60 game season, general managers and field skippers are going into a new frontier. It is possible that a .500 team will make the playoffs. It is also possible that a 5 game losing streak could be a death sentence.

A few managers have already decided that they will do 6 or 7 man rotations. However, the starting pitchers may not be able to give consistent 6 IP/ start (this was last year's trend.) Middle relievers may be the most valuable players on the roster.

With every pitcher having to throw to at least 3 batters, the concept of an "opener" is still in play, but probably will not be used based on the lack of starters who can throw deep into a game.

However, as we discussed in the past, it may be time to think about pitching staffs as "pods," squads of pitchers assigned to navigate a game. The opening day roster is 30 players so most teams will have at least 15 pitchers available. In game 1, pitchers A, B, C and D are assigned to throw at least 7 innings. Players X and Y are designated "game closers" for 8th and 9th inning, if available. In game 2, pitchers E, F, G, and H have the same 7 IP assignment. In game 3, pitchers I, J, K and L are assigned 7 IP. Pitcher Z (the 15th man) is the "stopper," who can come in any inning to stop an opponent's rally. It is also noteworthy that MLB dropped the field player's ability to pitch in games so in blow out games, your reserve outfielder can pitch.

The "pod" system is probably ideal for a staff of all middle relievers and closers. But since MLB's restart is going to be less than a spring training, one should look at the beginning of the real season as an extended exhibition schedule.

The use of the DH will be problematic for NL teams. Frank Thomas said it took him a long time to adjust being a DH (almost an entire year.) When you play in the field, you have the rhythm of the game. Your mind is constantly in game focus. If you are a DH, you are on the bench - - - separated from "the action." Every at bat is like "pinch hitting." Rarely do pinch hitters put up MVP numbers.

Another change will be MLB coverage. Media reporters to access to managers and players will be non-existent. Radio and TV announcers may not even travel with the team. Social distancing means no locker room interviews or on-field celebrations. With no fans in the stands, telecasts will be either silent, erie or artificially enhanced by sound engineers.

But the biggest change could happen in 2021. If owners think they can use a 60 man roster for an entire season, the current MiLB development leagues could evaporate. MLB wanted this year to eliminate 42 team affiliates. Instead, it got them all. Minor league owners now see 19 months without a dime of revenue (95% is based on home game fan attendance.) Teams can save millions in minor league agreements if they have a 30 man roster and a 30 man taxi squad.

It would mean that there would be thousands of minor league free agents without a club contract. It would also mean that the minor league system would be all independent leagues without MLB support. It would make college players stay longer in school in order to polished before being drafted by a team. MLB could see colleges as development leagues like the NFL does.

The final great change from this pandemic season is the sudden backbone of the union. It did not back down from its positions. It is taking hard line stances against the owners as a prelude to the next CBA in 2021-22.

THEY DID IT!

Well, a Giancarlo Stanton deal got done. And the Cubs were no where in the neighborhood.

The Yankees made a fantastic deal to acquire the power hitting MVP.

Yahoo Sports summarizes the deal: The Marlins will receive veteran second baseman Starlin Castro, Yankees No. 9 minor league prospect,  right-hander Jorge Guzman and infielder Jose Devers in exchange for Stanton and approximately $30 million. The New York Post reports the $30 million will only be paid out in full if Stanton elects not to opt out after the 2020 season. The Yankees will absorb the remaining $265 million left on his contract.

With the price break the Yankees are getting in the deal, it is likely the Yankees will be able to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold in 2018. After offloading Castro’s $7.57 million salary and taking into account the $25 million Stanton is due next season, the club is looking at a payroll increase of just under $17.5 million. The $30 million the Yankees receive from Miami will be paid out in $3 million installments to help offset the luxury tax restrictions each year.

Pitcher Guzman is expected to break into the big leagues as soon as 2019. The 21-year-old pitched exclusively out of the rotation for Low-A Staten Island last season with a 5-3 record in 13 starts and a 2.30 ERA, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.9 SO/9 through 66 2/3 innings.

Devers, 18, was also included in the deal. The shortstop/DH made his first foray into pro ball in 2017, slashing a combined .245/.336/.342 with 13 extra-base hits and 16 stolen bases in 216 PA for the Yankees’ rookie-level affiliates in the Gulf Coast League and Dominican Summer League.

The Marlins were desperate to unload Stanton's contract and the Yankees got a bargain fire-sale price for the one of the best hitters in baseball.

As I said previously, it would not have taken much to get Stanton on the Cubs roster. And Stanton would have solved a major problem in the Cubs everyday lineup: consistent hitting for average and power.

The Marlins only received a starting second baseman,  the Yankees fifth best pitching prospect, and a low level minor leaguer. Miami also lost a great deal of production: Castro hit .300, 16 HR, 63 RBI with a 2.0 WAR as compared to Stanton's .281 BA, 59 HR, 132 RBI and 7.6 WAR.

Look at this way: would you trade Javy Baez, No. 4 prospect SP Alex Lange and a low Class A minor leaguer for Stanton?

Of course you would. That is the basic cost the Marlins were looking to take to get rid of Stanton. So I am surprised that the Cubs were not a factor in the Stanton trade discussions. Yankees GM Cashman made the deal of the year.

AAA DRAFT SELECTIONS

The Cubs minor league system is not know for being deep in pitching.

So it was surprising to note that four minor league Cub pitchers were taken in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 draft at the Winter Meetings.

The results of Cub farm hands changing teams:

Cincinnati Reds took Pin-Chieh Chen, 2B, Cubs
AA/AAA Age 23: 5 HR 46 RBI 21 SB, .263 BA

Los Angeles Angels took Ariel Ovando, LHP, Cubs, RF/1B
2014 A ball hitting: 1 HR 14 RBI .237 BA in 58 games
2015 Rk pitching: 15 games 21 IP 4-0 0.43 ERA, 0.952 WHIP
A converted hitter into a pitcher with little experience is kind of a wild card pick.

New York Yankees took Julian Aybar, RHP, Cubs
Age 23, Rk pitching 20 games: 8-1, 1.82 ERA, 0.882 WHIP

St. Louis Cardinals took  Michael Heesch, LHP, Cubs
Age 25
 In 2014 A/AAA:  4-1, 2.03 ERA, 1.147 WHIP in 25 games
In 2015 A+ ball : 8-2, 2.24 ERA, 1.259 WHIP in 33 games
Heesch was on some prospect boards:

The 25-year old left-handed starter (22 games, 22 starts) was the Cubs 8th round pick in 2012. This year he spent the entire season in advanced-A going 8-2 with a 2.24 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and held opponents to a .238 average. He throws a heavy fastball in the low 90′s with good tailing action that actually broke 4 bats in a two innings span this year. The 6’5 pitcher could fit the a roster as a LOOGY after holding lefty hitters to a .165/.259/.186 slash line in 2015.

ADDING DEPTH CHEAPLY

There seems to be a new approach to the Cubs as the team tries to rebuild its major league bullpen.

The Cubs have acquired righty Spencer Patton from the Rangers in exchange for infielder Frandy De La Rosa.  The team previously claimed injured pitcher Jack Leathersich on waivers and signed  minor league free agent righty Audury Acevedo to a major league deal.  

These transactions show a clear pattern: assemble a number cheap AAA arms and sees what pans out in spring training.

Leathersich will not be an option for a long time. Another Cub rehab project, Leathersich, 25,  had Tommy John surgery in July. He was a first round selection of the Mets. In 5 minor league seasons, he is 9-9, 3.55 ERA with 7 saves. He has thrown only 11.3 major league innings. He has middle reliever status.

Patton, 27, has a 15-14, 3.49 ERA in 5 minor league seasons. He only has less than 34 innings of major league experience.

The 25-year-old Acevedo sped up the ladder in the Yankees organization last year after starting the season at High-A. He ultimately reached the Triple-A level in time to make ten late-season appearances.

Acevedo, a converted infielder, worked to a composite 2.59 ERA with 7.5 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 over 59 total frames. He seemed to have limited the severe control issues he showed in his first couple of seasons after moving to the mound, but he did allow nine free passes in his 10 2/3 frames at the highest level of the minors.

These three Cubs signings represent another example of teams recently handing 40-man spots to minor league free agents. Usually, minor league free agents average 27 years of age which is still younger than an average veteran journeyman looking to latch on to a team in the off-season. Many teams may sign these minor leaguers to major league minimum deals because they are cheaper than veterans. Also, the minor leaguers may have more perceived upside than a journeyman.

CUBS BIG MOVES

The Cubs made its big spring roster moves. Kris Bryant and Addison Russell were reassigned to Iowa (because they are not yet on the 40 man roster) and Javy Baez was optioned to AAA (each player has three options years).

The reasons are clear but not without some controversy.

Bryant, who leads the majors with nine spring training home runs and battied .425 (17-for-40) with 15 RBIs in 14 games, was sent to the minors to start the season so that the Cubs will gain an extra year until he is eligible for free agency. Bryant's agent and many fans railed at the fact that the Cubs would put "a business decision" ahead of having the best 25 players on the field for opening day. And considering the Cubs ownership and management have told fans that the team is going to compete for the NL Central title and playoffs this year, not having probably your best hitter in the minors seems two-faced.

Further, the business decision is all based on the assumption that Bryant will still be productive SIX years from now. If you are in "win now" mode, you play your best players because your team may only have a small, one year window of opportunity (see, 2005 White Sox).

The Cubs claim that it was for developmental reasons. When Theo Epstein came to Chicago, he did have this arbitrary philosophy that minor league players need 500 AAA at-bats before being promoted to the major leagues. Bryant has had 297 ABs in AAA so far. That would mean Bryant is going to be in Iowa for more than the estimated two weeks since 200 ABs equates to another 35-40 games played for him to reach the 500 threshold. The Cubs will not admit this, but keeping Bryant down longer this season will help stop him from reaching Super Two status (the top 22 percent of rookie players in the game get a chance at early arbitration year).

It may take 30 games to train Bryant in left field duties. That is supposedly the plan if Mike Olt can be a passable third baseman. But based on Olt's Cub performance to date, Bryant is just as good fielder and a significantly better hitter than Olt. The Cubs have no other seasoned third baseman on the roster.

This could mean shortstop Russell, currently blocked by Starlin Castro, may also have to learn a new position in Iowa: third base. Russell looks like he has the body type that will fill out over time. He does have the arm strength to play the position.  It was no surprise that despite batted .324 with a homer and six RBIs this spring, Russell was being sent to Iowa.

The Baez demotion took some people by surprise, maybe including manager Joe Maddon who has campaigned for days in keeping Baez on the roster for his fine defense and base running skills. But Baez struggled mightily this spring, batting just .173 with one homer, one RBI and 20 strikeouts in 52 at-bats. The slugging infielder had a whopping 95 strikeouts in 213 at-bats with the Cubs last season.

Baez has also not taken well to coaching in regard to his swing mechanics. The Cubs staff has tried to get Baez to shorten up his loopy power swing to cut down on the holes in the zone. The Cubs staff has also tried to get Baez to shorten his leg kick swing trigger. Apparently he tries the new mechanics in the batting cage, but not in game situations. Some felt that keeping Baez on the major league roster, he could get batting advice from the major league hitting coach and Maddon.

The fall out for these three roster moves is apparent:

Olt wins the starting third base position by default.

Arismendy Alcantara and Tommy LaStella will probably platoon at second base. Alcantara played CF for the Cubs last season, but is a natural second baseman who has some power. As camp began, LaStella was perceived as a utility-bench player.

The noise about trading Castro will die off with the move of Russell. But if Russell is not going to switch to third (or second if Alcantara returns to supersub role and Baez fails to cut down on strikeouts), then the pressure will be on management to move either Castro or Russell for a bigger piece of the championship puzzle (for example, a deal for major league ace starter like Cole Hamels).

CRICKET NOISES

Normally, one could hear cricket noises at Wrigley Field in late September.

But a recent BBC report indicates that a different type of cricket is making its rounds throughout baseball's minor league systems.

Cricket is an English bat and ball sport with confusing rules, long innings, games that may take days to complete, in the setting of colonial aristocracy. It is considered an international sport because the Brits transported it to all its colonies, including India and Australia. As a result, it is a top three sport after soccer and rugby.

What is interesting is that cricket clubs have started scouting American baseball minor league systems for batters. It seems that baseball hitting swing paths can be easily converted into the upright swipes of a cricket bat. It still takes strong eye and hand coordination to play both sports.  Cricket managers see American minor league hitters, who are stuck, blocked or not good enough to play American baseball, could be the next great Cricket player.

As teams covet their prospects more and more, there is a higher inventory of talent trapped at various levels in a team's system. Under normal circumstances, a new draftee would start in rookie ball. After a year, move up to Class A. Then after a year or so, to Double A. Then by year four, be in Triple AAA waiting for the call up. However, if production begins to fall off at any development stage, a prospect can be passed over for promotion and begin the label as a "career" minor league player.

Cricket teams want to tap the potential of good hit, no field candidates.

It is doubtful that the Cricket world is going to recruit a ton of talent from baseball, but it is another distraction that MLB clubs will have to contend with as youngsters weigh their sports options.

RULE 5 CUBS

The Cubs protected 40 man roster stands at 38.

In order to protect minor league prospects who have accumulated enough service time in the minors to be eligible for the December winter meetings Rule 5 draft have to be promoted to the 40 man roster.  However, most likely, the Cubs hold open two major league roster spots for potential free agent signings.

If not, the Cubs can only protect two (2) players from this list. (With teams not taking very many players in the Rule 5 draft, since that player must be kept on the team's active 25 man roster for the entire 2015 season or lose him, the chances of the Cubs losing a player is remote.)  However, the one guy that pops out as a possibility is RHP C.J. Edwards.

CUBS MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS ELIGIBLE FOR SELECTION IN DECEMBER 2014 RULE 5 DRAFT (last updated 11-3-2014):

Gilberto Abreu, RHP
Gioskar Amaya, INF
John Andreoli, OF
Jeffry Antigua, LHP
Delbis Arcila, OF
Jeffrey Baez, OF
Frank Batista, RHP
Marcelo Carreno, RHP
Zach Cates, RHP
Hunter Cervenka, LHP
Pin-Chieh Chen, OF
Gerardo Concepcion, LHP (Article XX-D player - can elect free-agency if drafted & then later re-claimed by Cubs)
Willson Contreras, C
Blake Cooper, RHP
Wes Darvill, INF
Taylor Davis, C
Alberto Diaz, LHP
C. J. Edwards, RHP
Kevin Encarnacion, OF
Luis Flores, C
P. J. Francescon, RHP
Humberto Garcia, INF
Victor Garcia, LHP
Dustin Geiger, INF
Anthony Giansanti, OF
Jae-Hoon Ha, OF
Marco Hernandez, INF
Michael Jensen, RHP
Austin Kirk, LHP
Matt Loosen, RHP
Jeff Lorick, LHP
Barret Loux, RHP
Dillon Maples, RHP
Andrew McKirahan, LHP
Trey McNutt, RHP (Article XX-D player - can elect free-agency if drafted & then later re-claimed by Cubs)
Alberto Mineo, C
Yoanner Negrin, RHP
Carlos Penalver, INF
Felix Pena, RHP
Starling Peralta, RHP (Article XX-D player - can elect free-agency if drafted & then later re-claimed by Cubs)
Ivan Pineyro, RHP
Austin Reed, RHP
Jose Rosario, RHP
Julio Sanchez, RHP
Tayler Scott, RHP
Rock Shoulders, 1B
Rubi Silva, OF
Brian Smith, LHP
Elliot Soto, INF
Antonio Valerio, C
Yao-Lin Wang, RHP
Ben Wells, RHP
Tony Zych, RHP

HOUSTON, WE HAVE A PROBLEM

In certain respects, the Cubs have mimicked the Astros in the course of recent draft history. The Astros have tanked many seasons in order to get the top draft picks. In theory, high picks like #1s are easier to identify potential star players.

But with all draft prospects, even picking high does not yield high grades.

In the past four drafts, the Astros have selected the following first round players:

2010 (#8) Delino DeShields Jr., OF
Currently AA ball: .239 BA, 5 HR, 34 RBI

2010 (#19) Mike Foltynewicz RHP
Current AAA ball: 7-6,  5.12 ERA, 1.469 WHIP, 1.96 K/BB

2010 (#33) Michael Kvasnicka C
Twins AA ball: .275 BA, 9 HR, 44 RBI

(Acquired RHP Gonzlo Sanudo: A ball: 3-0, 4.20 ERA, 1.283 WHIP)

2011 (#11) George Springer OF
Astros: 78 GP, .231 BA, 20 HR, 51 RBI, 5 SB, 1.8 WAR

2012 (#1) Carlos Correa SS
Current A ball: .325 BA, 6 HR, 57 RBI, 20 SB

2013 (#1) Mark Appel, RHP
Current A ball: 1-5, 10.80 ERA, 2.087 WHIP, 3.00 K/BB

2014 (#1) Brady Aiken
Current: Failed to Sign

While many teams have promoted their best 2010 prospects to the majors, the Astros, with three picks, have not had any one set the minor league world on fire. 2011 first rounder George Springer made a huge splash in his debut this season. He has shown the power numbers to stick in the majors, but his batting average (plate disclipine) is light. All in all, Houston is pleased with Springer's progress.

Likewise, 2012 #1 overall pick Correa is doing well in A ball. Remember, he was a high school draft choice so many teams allow for more low minor league time to get adjusted to pro ball.  However, 2013 #1 overall pick Appel has been disappointing in A ball.  A college standout pitcher, Appel was seen as a difficult signing in 2011. In 2012, he was classified as the best pitching prospect. Clearly, the hype has not translated into pro ball.

The fiasco about the injury-non-injury status of 2014's overall #1 pick Aiken also sets back the 2014 draft as a total bust. The juggling of the slot bonus pool with Aiken, and the pull back of offers, led to Houston losing their next two prized draft choices as well. 

This is a real cautionary tale that any major league baseball fan needs to appreciate. In 7 first round draft picks, the Astros have currently only 1 major leaguer (Springer). That is a 14.2% success rate. Of the other six minor leaguers, only 1 has met his pre-draft potential (Correa). So there is a 17% chance that another first rounder will become a major league starter. Even the best prospects don't necessarily pan out.

The Astros main strategy was to draft high and acquire six years of cheap control of  home grown major league players. With the lack of first round success, it will be hard to imagine the plan coming together any time soon.

MOVING ON UP

The Cubs have been signing several of their high school draft picks, which is good. But that foretells a longer developmental period.

The Cubs have been accelerating the progress of their two best hitters. Newly signed C-1B Kyle Schwarber lasted only about a week in Rookie Ball before being promoted to Class A. Schwarber destroyed the competition in the first week so there was no reason not to move him along.

Kris Bryant was also promoted from AA to AAA Iowa. He had played well above the competition in Tennessee. He hit a HR in his Iowa debut. The front office philosophy is that a AAA player needs 500 ABs in AAA before being called up to the majors. It will be interesting to see whether this rule holds true for Bryant, who now has a clear path to play third base since the Cubs demoted AAA 3B Christian Villaneuva to AA.

In some ways, pushing players faster through the system is better. There are young major leaguers who tell writers all the time that sitting in the minors is a waste of time; that they really only learn how to be professionals at the major league level.

It is also the beginning of the crack in the rebuild armor. Cubs management is very stubborn. When they say they are going to do something, they really don't care what other people think. They have their own unstated internal time table which is different than the expectations and demands of the general public. But the fan base's distaste with the team for "tanking" the last few seasons  may have some bearing on why the Cubs are going to promote their best players faster through the system.

ROAD THOUGHTS

During a long weekend road trip, I heard a lot of sports radio conversation. Some of the talk reaffirmed many points that I have been making for years in regard to the Cubs. A recap of some of the interesting points I heard while cruising down the interstates:

1. The Cubs continue to propagate the myth that bad teams have a better chance to draft good players.

This point got the strongest reaction from the hosts who made it. The Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and Cardinals all have had very good drafts for the past decade while selecting well after the Cubs. The real bottom line is that teams drafting in the middle to late rounds are drafting BETTER TALENT. The Cubs need to draft better talent not tank seasons to get high draft picks.

I agree that scouting is fundamentally important to have a consistent and viable farm system. However, that is only one part of the equation. The organization still needs to train and develop the draft picks into major league players. The Cubs have had a woeful track record on developing their own players.

2. People are beginning to question whether ownership knows what it is doing.

The off-the-cuff admission by Crane Kenney that Tom Ricketts gave Kenney a 5 year extension several months ago is still a headline head scratcher. What has Kenney done to deserve such a reward? He is the face of the bungled rehab of Wrigley Field. He is part of the team that put together the Zell Tribune restrictions that allegedly has handcuffed the team financially with high debt and poor broadcast contracts.

I said from the beginning that Ricketts failed to due his own proper due diligence. He did not bring on board his own independent baseball and financial people to review the Zell proposals and the real financial shape of the franchise. As a result, Ricketts overpaid for a franchise by more than $350 million, and carried on with the same failed management group. That does not show confidence or business savvy to run a baseball team.

3. The split between the baseball operations and the "business side" of the equation is a growing canyon.

It really never made much sense to have the baseball operations severed from the "business" operations. Ricketts bought a baseball franchise - - - its business is to run a profitable and winning major league team. For example, the White Sox have one management team reviewing and setting policy for the team. The business of the Cubs is baseball not the growing "side" projects that Ricketts has kicked around Clark and Addison since he bought the team.

Some commentators wonder if Theo Epstein knew what he was getting himself into; he has not come out and said it, but it appears that the baseball team has to "wait" for the business side to "get up to speed" before the Cubs can actually function as a major league contender. Epstein knew or should have known what he was getting into; he may not care because he got his contract and a built-in excuse if things fail: the interference by Ricketts and Kenney.

4. The numbers do not add up.

When Ricketts purchased the franchise, the Cubs had a high payroll and high attendance at Wrigley (3.3 million paid gate).  However, this season is tracking at a low payroll and much lower attendance levels (approx. 2.3 million). In less than five years, the new ownership has sliced 1 million in attendance.

Now, the team the last three years has been barely watchable. You can't sell 100 loss teams as being fun entertainment. So true to the tourism board's statements, it is possible that the majority of people still attending games at Wrigley are not there just to see the Cubs but to experience the "unique" ball yard.

Wrigley Field is the only major league park that has not been transformed into a electronic arcade. It has the same look and feel for the past 8 decades: a manual scoreboard, ivy covered brick walls, a green park in the middle of a residential neighborhood. It is those features that draw tourists to the park; to show their children what baseball was like when they were young and their (grand) parents took them to a game.

So, Ricketts is adamant that he now needs 7 large outfield signs in order to field a competitive team. It is projected that at most, the new park signage could bring in $30 million in revenue per season. But, since the team has already lost 1 million visitors at $70 per patron spending, the new outdoor advertising revenue does not come close to off-setting the lost attendance of $70 million.

Further, of the remaining 2.3 million, there will be a good portion of baseball purists who will no longer feel that Wrigley is Wrigley if all the new video scoreboards and signage is put up. It will ruin the atmosphere, architecture and pristine baseball viewing experience. Even if those baseball purists number 500,000, that means the new revenue enhancements will not off-set the loss of $35 million in future attendance losses from this segment of the fan base.

It was said that it makes more sense to add $10 to every ticket than put in the new signage. You get about the same new revenue increases without destroying the landmarked historic nature of Wrigley Field.   But ownership is hell bent now on dramatically changing Wrigley Field.

5. Wrigley Field is the priority, not the Cubs.

All of the resources and energy of the "business side" of the Cubs has been directed toward non-baseball things: the new buildings and party plaza outside Wrigley; the new Wrigley Field construction plans and ad signs; the new commercial hotel-gym-parking complex across the street. The business managers want to increase night events, concerts, tours, corporate outings and movie nights. Wrigley Field is being transformed from baseball park into a multipurpose entertainment venue like the Rosemont Horizon or Sears Center.

And all this ancillary revenue has nothing to do with the Cubs getting better ball players or winning more games. The Cubs are merely a tenant at Wrigley Field. The non-baseball revenue will go into a different Ricketts bank account.  People are beginning to realize that all the talk about revenue enhancement has nothing to do with the baseball operations. They are not tied together. That is why the payrolls continue to drop, and veterans traded for cheaper prospects. That is why Epstein is cornered with the one thing he can control (and must succeed in order to win): establish an unprecedented stream of home grown impact talent from the minor league system.

PROSPECTING FOR GOLD

It was like watching one of those overhyped gold mining reality shows . . . there are hours of episodes but at the end of the season the miners crap out.

Last season, more fans spent their time researching, watching and following the Cubs vaulted minor league prospects. Several, including Javier Baez and Kris Bryant, were tearing the cover off the ball. It was more enjoyable to invest time and resources in tracking the development of those prospects than watch the major league team stumble from series to series.

But all reality shows get stale real fast.

So far, word from down on the farm is that those golden prospects have tarnished to brass.

No one at AAA Iowa is so far above the fray as to demand a call-up to the major league roster. And that is a bad sign. The Cubs front office signed a bunch of young prospects and put them in the low minors because they had "high ceilings."  The question becomes when do the prospects actually "hit" their ceilings. If it is at the AAA level, then those prospects have crapped out like the gold miners.

The season is still young, but slow starts seem to compound on young players. Take Brett Jackson for example. After his blazing AAA season, he earned a call-up to the majors at the end of the season. He struggled badly. The next year, he was back at AAA, and he struggled so badly he was demoted to AA by the end of the year. He is back in AAA, but only hitting .198.

Jackson is the poster boy for prospect gold. He was the five tool outfield prospect that was the "can't miss" Kid. Now at age 25, he is not even on the radar for a major league job.

But it is not that unusual. Most prospects have the fate of Jackson. But when the major league team is so poor, it can only sell one thing: the future. But the future may not be as bright as presented; and if the vaulted prospects don't pan out, the Cubs may be in store for decades of poor teams. I don't think the current fan base will support a second "ten year" rebuild plan for this organization.

SANDBERG

Ryne Sandberg did a Sunday radio interview on WSCR.

Sandberg said that he got into managing as his kids were grown and leaving his house. He wanted to see if managing was something that suited him. So he went to the low minors, rode the buses and emersed himself in the job. He said that without six years in the minors, he would not have had the chance to learn to communicate with players on a daily basis and hone his skills as a manager in any given situation. He also indicated that the minor league tenure helped him set his managerial tone. He said without the minor league experience, he would have never been able to become a major league skipper.

It was a trial and error approach. Initially, Sandberg, who was a quiet leader as a player, was a boisterous and angry Larry Bowa-type manager. He got into umpires' faces. He got tossed. He had to learn how to control his emotions.

Players from the Cubs minor league system respected Sandberg as a manager, player and a teacher. And that is one thing that most people outside the Cubs organization classify as Sandberg's greatest trait: the ability to develop young players.

Baseball historians in the future may point to one or two events that shaped the continuing decline of the Cub franchise: the P.K. Wrigley ownership era, the Tribune ownership era with Sam Zell, Dusty Baker and the Bartman game, and perhaps the Cubs not hiring Sandberg to be their major league manager.

Corporate executives always preach that a company's strength is its "human capital." That means the workers who know the company products, services, methods and profitability centers are as valuable as the end product. You don't have to train a novice when you already have an expert on staff.

After 5 years in the Cubs minor league system (at all three levels), Sandberg had the expert knowledge of every prospect in the system. Most had played for him. Most knew what he expected from them. He taught them how to win as a team. These are all qualities that clubs want in their managers.

But the Cubs passed on hiring Sandberg. The reason was clear: Sandberg would have been a too popular figure in the Cubs organization. Sandberg would have public opinion on his side. He would not be "controllable" by the front office. They feared Sandberg could second guess the team's roster selections, free agent or trade moves. They did not want Sandberg to have a say in personnel moves because that would weaken their own authority.

Sandberg starts his first full season as Phillies manager. The team has decided to make one last championship run with a very old roster of veterans. But one can tell that Sandberg's hire is for a longer term, as in 2015 the Phils will start a massive rebuild with young players. Sandberg is the guy who can build a team around young players.

And this was the Cubs missed opportunity. Even with the Cubs tearing down their major league roster to "rebuild" the minor league system, a Cub manager named Sandberg could have gotten the most out of the old Hendry regime's minor league talent at the major league level. He would have stressed the fundamentals (which he does in Philadelphia: he said during the season he does an infield drill every three days; pitchers bunting drills; outfielder throw days, etc.)

During the opening home stand, the Cubs have reverted back to bad defense as Castro missed two easy grounders, and baserunning gaffes began to reappear with frequency. Renteria, who also had six years of minor league managing experience with two teams, may be a nice guy, a cheerleader, but he does not have the professional player status as a Sandberg. And at a certain level, major league players will only respond to coaches who have the credentials to back up what they are telling their team to do on the field.

In Cub lore, the missed opportunity is a recurring theme. By not hiring Sandberg, the Cubs missed a great opportunity.

THIS MAKES NO SENSE

The Angels have traded 1B Matthew Scioscia  (Mike's son) to the Cubs for OF Trevor Gretzky  (Wayne's son), Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports. Scioscia, 25, hit .194/.248/.224 in three minor-league levels last year. The 21-year-old Gretzky, a seventh-round pick in 2011, hit .274/.300/.333 in the low minors in 2013.

The Cubs give up a prospect four years younger than a failed prospect who hit .194 with no power to play first base?

RETURN TO SENDER

The Rule 5 draft is one of baseball's quirky rules. A team can select an unprotected player from another club at the winter meetings for $50,000, place him on the 40 man roster but will have to keep him for the entire season at the major league level. The Cubs got one young player, Lenny Castillo, through a weak season so he remains Cub property.

It is reported that the Diamondbacks will return Rule 5 choice Marcus Mateo to the Cubs.

 Mateo, who had some major league experience,  missed all of 2012 and threw at Triple-A last year. In 31 innings, he posted a sparkling 1.74 ERA, with 8.7 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9. Across his previous 44 2/3 MLB innings, Mateo notche only a 5.04 ERA but for every nine innings did manage to strike out 10.3 while surrendering only 3.8 free passes.

As with most Rule 5 choices, Mateo would have struggled to stick on Arizona's roster for the year. That was especially so given the number of additions and commitments the team made to the pen.  As MLBTR noted, Mateo is out of options, which means a team could not hold onto him in the minors without passing him through waivers.

So this problem comes back to the Cubs. The Cubs current bullpen candidates have had a less than stellar spring training. This spring, Mateo, 29, threw 4 IP in 4 games for a 2.25 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. He would be a long shot to make the Cubs opening day roster, but the team might as well hold on to him to the end of camp, then send him to clear waivers, hoping every other team is set with their bullpens.

40 MAN MOVES

The Cubs 40 man roster has numerous players who are out of options, according to MLBTR.

Players on a  40-man roster players  who have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. In theory,  a team risks losing a player if he cannot make the 25 man roster.  

The Cubs have 11 players who are out of options.

George Kottaras, Wesley Wright, Justin Ruggiano, James McDonald, Pedro Strop, Wellington Castillo, Jeff Samardzija, Luis Valbuena, Travis Wood, Donnie Murphy and Alberto Cabrera.

There are a few who are guaranteed 25 man roster spots: Samardzija, Wood, Valbuena, Castillo, with newcomers Kottaras, Wright, Ruggiano.

Strop would appear to win the set-up bullpen role, and Cabrera could be battling for the final bullpen spot with McDonald if Arrieta is the 5th starter as camp breaks.

It puts Murphy in the weakest spot. Even though he showed some power in his short tenure with the Cubs, he has never found consistency in the majors. Emilio Bonifacio, who signed a minor league deal, is more likely to make the 25 man roster because of his position versatility and ability to lead off.

It is not to say that the Cubs should be not looking at the waiver wire to upgrade any of their positions.

MINOR MOVES

The Cubs have been busy this off-season signing players to minor league contracts. It can give one perspective in the shortcomings of the minors as well as areas of concern on the current major league roster. Whether these signings are an upgrade in minor league positions is always debatable. But from the type of signings, it is clear that the front office is looking closely at several positions.

November signings:

LF Darnell McDonald to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
LF Casper Wells to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
LHP Jeffrey Antigua to a minor league contract.
2B Chris Valika  to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
RHP Carlos Pimentel to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
RHP Paolo Espino to a minor league contract.
2B Jeudy Valdez  to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
C Eli Whiteside  to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
SS Walter Ibarra to a minor league contract.
RF Aaron Cunningham to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.

December signings:

claimed RHP Brett Marshall  off waivers from Yankees
2B Ryan Roberts  to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
CF Mitch Maier to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
C John Baker to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
LHP Tommy Hottovy to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
LF Ryan Kalish to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.

January signings:

RHP Chang-Yong Lim  to a minor league contract.
1B Lars Anderson  to a minor league contract.
LHP James McDonald to a minor league contract.

Here is a few comments I glean from these moves:

Left field is a major focal point. Junior Lake may not be the answer, so the Cubs have stockpiled outfielders at that position who have major league experience (McDonald, Wells, and Kalish). It also points out that the 5th outfielder spot is still an open competition in spring training.

Second base is also a concern despite Barney's renewal. Valika, Valdez and Roberts all have spring invites, possibly to push Barney and/or get a utility infield spot on the bench. 

Catcher is an organizational weakness and the signings of Whiteside and Baker for AAA duty is a sign that Kottaras may not be the full season solution to replace Navarro. It is also insurance for Castillo's nagging injury concerns.

The Cubs major league bullpen seems to be both set and in flux. Pimentel, Espino, Marshall, Hottovy, McDonald and Lim may get one of the bullpen slots if they have a hot spring and impress new manager Renteria. 

Lars Anderson's signing is desperate insurance in case Rizzo goes down. For the last two years, Anderson has played down to a classic AAAA player.

The signings also point to a churn in the minor league system. The numbers being signed in a few positions is like overloading on prospects hoping one will hit his talent upside.

But these signings also stress that these players are really plug-ins when the front office attempts to sell off its most valuable assets prior to the trade deadline. The candidates for trades this year include Samardzija, Veras, Schierholtz, Ruggiano (if he has a hot start in CF), Lake (as part of a package deal for better prospects), or Barney (for a club looking for defense). 

But for some unknown reason, the Cubs this week waived both Marshall and Brooks Raley.  Marshall was claimed by the Reds and Raley claimed by the Twins. Both were on the 40 man roster, so the front office may be opening space to sign free agents.

WADA LOOKING AT?

Another day, another reclamation project.

The Cubs have signed pitcher Tsuyoshi Wada  to a minor league deal with an invitation to Major League Spring Training. Wada is viewed by the Cubs as a potential starter, states the Tribune's Paul Sullivan.

Wada, 32, posted a 2.76 ERA with a 60-to-22 K/BB ratio over his final 78 1/3 innings for the Orioles' Triple-A affiliate in 2013 as he worked his way back from 2012 Tommy John surgery. Though he inked a two-year, $8.15 million contract with the O's prior to the 2012 campaign, Wada's injury prevented him from ever pitching in Baltimore.

Wada joins the ranks of failed Asian hurlers, Takahashi, Lim, and Fujikawa, that the Cubs have signed in recent years. The concept of extended rehabilitation for pitchers cut loose by their existing clubs is becoming a failed strategy after Scott Baker took the money last year and contributed a whopping 15 IP.  It looks like a repeat of the plan that the Cubs are trying to stock pile cheap starters in order to flip major league starters at the trade deadline.