The Cubs web page ranks its top prospects. It does not include recent draft choices.
The top fifteen are:
Javier Baez ss
Albert Almora cf
Jorge Soler rf
Brett Jackson cf
Arodys Vizcaino sp
Dillon Maples, sp
Pierce Johnson sp
Christian Villanueva 3b
Junior Lake ss
Matt Szczur of
Dan Vogelbach 1b
Jae Hoon Ha of
Jelmer Candelario 3b
Josh Vitters 3b
Duane Underwood sp
We can assume that at least three of these prospects have fallen out of favor with the front office:
Jackson, continues to struggle with strikeouts;
Szczur, who does not have the offensive production to be a starting outfielder; and
Vitters, who just got by-passed by the Kris Bryant pick.
One prospect may be a perpetual injury. Vizcaino came to the Cubs in trade injured, and he has not recovered to the point of even a potential re-entry date to the majors. Maples has also had injury set backs in his development.
So one third of the top fifteen Cub prospects are suspect at this point in time.
But what is the "vision" for the team come 2015? The front office must picture in its own mind who would be on their roster then:
LF: Vogelbach, converted from first base because of his power potential
CF: Almora, #1 pick will quarterback the outfield
RF: Soler, a lot is riding on front office international signee to be the next Sosa
3B: Bryant, #1 pick will solidify the infield
SS: Baez, who may have the rare power numbers for a shortstop
2B: Lake, converted from shortstop to add offense to second base position
1B: Rizzo, projected long term solution at first base
C: Castillo, because he may grow into the position over the next two seasons
SP:
1. Samardzija, if you can re-sign him
2. T. Wood, because lefty starters are hard to find
3. P. Johnson, because it would be the end of minor league service
4. Rob Zastryzny, second round lefty pick
5. Tyler Skulina or Trey Masek, college players with something to prove if signed, and
6.
Scott Frazier, if he can develop consistent control.
The last four pitchers came from this year's draft. If signed, they would be the fast track solution to shore up the rotation, which will probably be dismantled again this July.
If this is the goal, then the Cubs will justify not spending money on free agents or truly being competitive until 2016.
However, the expected turnover of 11 prospects into major league starters would be an anomaly for the Cubs. One could only expect two or three prospects in a system to make the starting role with the club.
What is also noted in this analysis is the absence of Starlin Castro. As this season progresses, Castro regresses. There is some rumbling that the Cubs could trade Castro because of the potential of a Baez or Lake at shortstop. It is also possible that Castro will become Soriano 2.0, and be moved to the outfield so to negate his infield defensive woes. But as a corner outfielder, Castro still does not project to be a 30 HR 100 RBI candidate. It will be interesting to see if the Cubs sour on Castro or stick with him to justify the $60 million contract they granted to him.
