There were a couple of general trends from this year's baseball draft.
First, the teams have a better understanding of the new CBA. Instead of taking the best pick, teams now are more focused in on how to maximize the signing bonus pool and how to sign prospects who fall down the board. The general consensus from draft bird dogs this year was most teams used their first round pick for the best player available on their board. But after the second round, the teams took players they thought they could sign for less than allocated slot money. The players in rounds 3 to 10 fit into this category. Teams that drafted college seniors in this area are the ones with the most leverage to sign a player who does not have the option not to sign and return to college to play. Then some teams would draft harder to sign players by paying them more in rounds 11-15. The draft in some respects has turned into a chess match between clubs and between player agents.
Second, some teams continued to focus in on high school players with high picks because they are generally cheaper to sign. Those motivated athletes do not want to go to college so they want to start their careers earlier with the hopes of reaching the majors quicker. Teams have to be more patient with these picks because this talent is raw.
Third, some teams drafted college juniors with the expectation that those players may not sign with the clubs. The Cubs went through an early stretch of drafting college junior pitchers. A few of them dropped down the board because of injury, signability or control issues. If the player believes he can rebound with another year of college to spring to the top two rounds, he will go back to school because that could mean more than a million dollar signing bonus pop. However, a few of them were drafted two or so rounds ahead of pundit expectations. Those players must think that they may never be drafted that high again, so they are motivated to sign this year.
Fourth, some teams are looking more toward international camps to find new talent. The Cubs are investing heavily in a Caribbean baseball academy to get the inside track on young talent. Many teams are using their professional scouts to review international games in Asia. The expansion is reasonable because less American boys grow up playing baseball with the other sports such as football and basketball being so popular.
Then, there was a short discussion during the weekend game about what this all means. There are some teams that historically draft well, and train their talent to get them to the big leagues. The Royals are a prime example of drafting and development blueprint. Some teams have the knack of getting their prospects to play the game the right way. However, it was mentioned by Jim Deshaies that once the minor league talent is promoted, their development and production drops. He said that teams need to continue coaching players, especially young rookies, at the major league level.
We see that problem with the Cubs all the time. The players make the same mistakes over and over again. Players like Starlin Castro seem to be regressing instead of progressing as each season passes. Some managers believe that once you make it to the big leagues, that means the player is ready. If the player is a professional, it is up to him to refine his skills and be prepared for each game. Dusty Baker was a proponent of that hands off approach to managing his teams. It probably works better with a veteran team like Baker has had during his career.
But for a team like the Royals, who are in a constant rebuild mode, that is a disaster. One basically gets a steady inventory of AAAA players making it to the major leagues year after year. The results are that your team stays at the bottom of the division.
One of the other story lines from the weekend was the open question when first pick Kris Bryant would make his major league debut. It was thought that the Cubs are very fixed in their promotion markers, like all position players should have at least 500 AB in AAA. Some believe that Bryant will start out in Class A ball, and once he hits his production markers, he could be quickly promoted up the system. That seems to be a low starting point for the best power hitter in the draft. The problem is starting him too low which may actually impede development. Bryant himself thinks he is ready now. Some other scouts believe he could be in the majors by next spring. But there has been no word from the Cubs on how they will deal with Bryant.
