MLBTR reports that the Royals will retain OF Alex Gordon.
Gordon was one of the top three FA outfielders on the market. But after the pitchers signed their
big deals, the free agent market dried up in December.
So much so that Gordon is taking a contract well below what analysts had predicted he would receive in free agency.
MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan and Yahoo Sports Jeff Passan report the deal is believed to be for four years with a guarantee in the “low-$70MM range,”
Passan wrote that a deal could come together quickly between the two
sides, and it appears just that has occurred. An official announcement
could come later today, says Flanagan, assuming Gordon passes his
physical.
The preliminary figures noted above would appear to suggest that
middle ground was found between team and player. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had
credited the veteran with earning power
in the five-year, $105MM range entering the winter, and by all
appearances there were numerous other teams with serious interest in his
services.
Teams have become conservative at this stage of the free agent market. It could be that borderline teams do not want to give up a first round draft choice AND sign a $100 million commitment to an outfielder. The White Sox were among the teams with serious interest. A four year deal is at the far end for ownership's risk level with any player, but it would seem Gordon's decision to stay in KC was to continue with a proven winning team.
For the sabermetric crowd, Gordon had the most value of the outfield FAs (Cespedes, Upton) because of his high defensive skills, something that teams like the White Sox are desperate to improve.
If Gordon's contract is in the $70 million range, that may drop the market price for Cespedes and Upton below the $100 million mark. That would mark a major turning point in the free agent market.
Showing posts with label Royals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Royals. Show all posts
January 6, 2016
November 4, 2015
POSSIBLE BLUEPRINT
Every team goes into the Winter Meetings with a plan on how to improve their club.
There are critical needs assessments. There are target players to fill those needs.
In the last week, we have heard from various sources, including NY Post writer Joel Sherman and baseball veteran Peter Gammons, on what the Cubs may be up to this off-season.
From an outsider's perspective, here are the Cubs critical needs:
1. New CF/lead off hitter. Fowler is a free agent who will be seeking a long term contract.
2. #3 starter. As Gammons said, "an innings eater."
3. #4 starter. The starting pitching was a glaring weakness in the post season run.
4. Middle relievers: Cahill, Richard and Hunter are free agents. Wood may try to earn a starting role. This leaves have the bullpen open.
5. Back up Catcher: If the Cubs really want Schwarber to work on his catching skills (since the outfield has been questionable) he needs to spend the winter in the instructional league. If Schwarber is not going to be a serviceable catcher, then the Cubs will need to find Montero's replacement either inside the organization or outside since Ross only has one year left on his deal.
Surprisingly, Sherman and Gammons indicated that the big target for the Cubs this off season will be Royals LF Alex Gordon. Gordon can opt out of his final year, $12.5 million deal. He says he wants to stay with the Royals, but he should command a long term extension at more than the qualifying offer value of $15.8 million.
Gordon, 32, in 104 GP hit .271, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 2 SB and had a 2.8 WAR. That does not seem to be special production for the alleged "best left fielder in the game." He does not meet the critical needs of the team: center field or lead off.
The writers also agree that in order to upgrade pitching, the Cubs will have to go into the market and find several veteran, quality arms for the #3 and #4 slots. Gammons believes that the Cubs will probably trade both Soler and Castro in order to find pitchers. As discussed in a previous post, Soler's trade value is at its highest level due to his post-season performance. Power around the leagues is in short supply, and Soler appears to be a DH candidate. Castro's value was higher a year and half ago, but with a surplus of middle infielders, he is the likely candidate to be moved to another team.
If the Cubs are looking to go into the free agent pitching market, they will not be targeting the big names. Ironically, the type of innings eater (200 IP) would be a Samardzija, whose 2015 performance may have put him in the second tier of value. He may not accept what the Cubs had offered him prior to the trade to Oakland, but his year with the White Sox really devalued his position in the free agent market.
In the free agent center field market, the crop is very thin (it contains two ex-Cubs):
Rajai Davis (age, 35)
Dexter Fowler (30)
Austin Jackson (29)
Justin Maxwell (32)
Colby Rasmus (29)
Shane Robinson (30)
Denard Span (32)
Drew Stubbs (31)
Span was hurt for most of last season, and Stubbs was terrible. Rasmus has turned into a journeyman who hit 25 HR in Houston this year, but batted only .238. This is why Fowler is the cream of the CF crop this off season.
There are critical needs assessments. There are target players to fill those needs.
In the last week, we have heard from various sources, including NY Post writer Joel Sherman and baseball veteran Peter Gammons, on what the Cubs may be up to this off-season.
From an outsider's perspective, here are the Cubs critical needs:
1. New CF/lead off hitter. Fowler is a free agent who will be seeking a long term contract.
2. #3 starter. As Gammons said, "an innings eater."
3. #4 starter. The starting pitching was a glaring weakness in the post season run.
4. Middle relievers: Cahill, Richard and Hunter are free agents. Wood may try to earn a starting role. This leaves have the bullpen open.
5. Back up Catcher: If the Cubs really want Schwarber to work on his catching skills (since the outfield has been questionable) he needs to spend the winter in the instructional league. If Schwarber is not going to be a serviceable catcher, then the Cubs will need to find Montero's replacement either inside the organization or outside since Ross only has one year left on his deal.
Surprisingly, Sherman and Gammons indicated that the big target for the Cubs this off season will be Royals LF Alex Gordon. Gordon can opt out of his final year, $12.5 million deal. He says he wants to stay with the Royals, but he should command a long term extension at more than the qualifying offer value of $15.8 million.
Gordon, 32, in 104 GP hit .271, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 2 SB and had a 2.8 WAR. That does not seem to be special production for the alleged "best left fielder in the game." He does not meet the critical needs of the team: center field or lead off.
The writers also agree that in order to upgrade pitching, the Cubs will have to go into the market and find several veteran, quality arms for the #3 and #4 slots. Gammons believes that the Cubs will probably trade both Soler and Castro in order to find pitchers. As discussed in a previous post, Soler's trade value is at its highest level due to his post-season performance. Power around the leagues is in short supply, and Soler appears to be a DH candidate. Castro's value was higher a year and half ago, but with a surplus of middle infielders, he is the likely candidate to be moved to another team.
If the Cubs are looking to go into the free agent pitching market, they will not be targeting the big names. Ironically, the type of innings eater (200 IP) would be a Samardzija, whose 2015 performance may have put him in the second tier of value. He may not accept what the Cubs had offered him prior to the trade to Oakland, but his year with the White Sox really devalued his position in the free agent market.
In the free agent center field market, the crop is very thin (it contains two ex-Cubs):
Rajai Davis (age, 35)
Dexter Fowler (30)
Austin Jackson (29)
Justin Maxwell (32)
Colby Rasmus (29)
Shane Robinson (30)
Denard Span (32)
Drew Stubbs (31)
Span was hurt for most of last season, and Stubbs was terrible. Rasmus has turned into a journeyman who hit 25 HR in Houston this year, but batted only .238. This is why Fowler is the cream of the CF crop this off season.
October 29, 2015
PAYING THE PRICE
David Price could have cost himself around $20 million for his weak post season performance.
It is not that he is a different pitcher, per se, in the post season.
The reason could be that post season opponents scout their opponent more closely.
During the regular season, scouting departments are charged with scouting the minors, the majors, their upcoming opponents, checking out talent to sign during the next draft or international scouting period, and some self-scout their own team for comparison purposes and trade value.
But once the post season rolls around, it is all hands-on-deck to get useful stats and materials to the manager.
The Royals admit that they found out that Price was tipping his change up, enough times the Royals hitters could handle it.
As recounted in SI, when pitching from the stretch when he threw a changeup, Price would take an extra deep breath, one where you could see his shoulders shrug, and he would hold his set a beat longer. It appeared to me the Royals knew the changeup was coming when Price was in the stretch. Royals sources confirmed it: Price tipped his changeup—maybe not 100% of the time, but enough for Kansas City to buy in.
It is not that he is a different pitcher, per se, in the post season.
The reason could be that post season opponents scout their opponent more closely.
During the regular season, scouting departments are charged with scouting the minors, the majors, their upcoming opponents, checking out talent to sign during the next draft or international scouting period, and some self-scout their own team for comparison purposes and trade value.
But once the post season rolls around, it is all hands-on-deck to get useful stats and materials to the manager.
The Royals admit that they found out that Price was tipping his change up, enough times the Royals hitters could handle it.
As recounted in SI, when pitching from the stretch when he threw a changeup, Price would take an extra deep breath, one where you could see his shoulders shrug, and he would hold his set a beat longer. It appeared to me the Royals knew the changeup was coming when Price was in the stretch. Royals sources confirmed it: Price tipped his changeup—maybe not 100% of the time, but enough for Kansas City to buy in.
There had been rumors about Price tipping his
pitches when he faced Texas in the Division Series. A Toronto source
told me then that such rumors sometimes pop up, and that the Blue Jays
heard that Price had been tipping his pitchers earlier this season when
he was pitching for Detroit, but “we looked into it and didn’t see
anything.”
A pitcher has the advantage on the mound. He knows what he is going to throw and where he wants to throw the ball. The batter is guessing. Most batters try to time the pitcher's fastball, and work back from that speed. But since it only takes a fraction of a second to determine if it is a fastball, cutter or change up, batters have to project the count and situation in order to make solid contact. If a pitcher is tipping off his pitches, then the advantage swings toward the batter.
June 16, 2015
COMPUTER FOLLIES
Computers are supposed to be productivity tools to help humans manage information.
So two stories about computers and MLB twist that purpose.
First, the Royals and their fan base is accused of trying to stuff the ballot to get at least 7 Royals in the All-Star game. Since it is fan voting and a simple log in, with an email, the un(der)employed KC metro area seems to pulling all-nighters to beef up their Royals votes. It has gotten so silly that .200 hitting Omar Infante is the leading in votes for starting second baseman.
It would not matter if the All Star game remained an exhibition contest. But since MLB instituted interleague play, fans across the country can now see on a regular basis other league's best players. It used to be confined to one All Star a year plus the World Series. But the real cause of concern is that stupid Bud Selig salvage attempt of making the winner of the All Star game the home team for the World Series. Selig's folly let the air out of the former value of winning actual regular season games (since the best record always had home field advantage).
Second, the Cardinals alleged cyberhack scandal has more serious ramifications to baseball. It involves several federal crimes, felonies, which have potential jail sentences of 1 to 5 years. It involves corporate spying allegations on another team's proprietary team information (statistical analysis, scouting reports and trade emails). If the information was used by the organization or front office (and not as spun by some in the media as a rogue IT employee seeking revenge or a prank against a former boss), then a conspiracy charge could take out much of management and/or its credibility. The new commissioner is then put under the hot seat. How does the unprecedented criminal theft of team information fit under the "best interests of baseball" clause? If gambling on baseball is still the death sentence offense in the baseball charter (see, Pete Rose), then what could the penalties be to the Cardinals if they were found guilty of spying?
The NFL came down hard on the Patriots for the seemingly mild cheat of deflating footballs. But the NFL was mad that the Patriots were flaunting the rules, authority and integrity of the game on multiple occasions. The real concern is whether the FBI investigation, with subpoena power and computer expertise to track computer files and transmissions, will lead to a scandal bigger than the original intrusion in the Astros computer servers.
It is really a lack of common sense. Every MLB team has their own computer data base programs. There are plenty of public resources like Fangraphs that are spitting out Moneyball statistics and analysis. Why the Cardinals or its employees would benefit from an Astro hack is the great unknown folly in this story.
So two stories about computers and MLB twist that purpose.
First, the Royals and their fan base is accused of trying to stuff the ballot to get at least 7 Royals in the All-Star game. Since it is fan voting and a simple log in, with an email, the un(der)employed KC metro area seems to pulling all-nighters to beef up their Royals votes. It has gotten so silly that .200 hitting Omar Infante is the leading in votes for starting second baseman.
It would not matter if the All Star game remained an exhibition contest. But since MLB instituted interleague play, fans across the country can now see on a regular basis other league's best players. It used to be confined to one All Star a year plus the World Series. But the real cause of concern is that stupid Bud Selig salvage attempt of making the winner of the All Star game the home team for the World Series. Selig's folly let the air out of the former value of winning actual regular season games (since the best record always had home field advantage).
Second, the Cardinals alleged cyberhack scandal has more serious ramifications to baseball. It involves several federal crimes, felonies, which have potential jail sentences of 1 to 5 years. It involves corporate spying allegations on another team's proprietary team information (statistical analysis, scouting reports and trade emails). If the information was used by the organization or front office (and not as spun by some in the media as a rogue IT employee seeking revenge or a prank against a former boss), then a conspiracy charge could take out much of management and/or its credibility. The new commissioner is then put under the hot seat. How does the unprecedented criminal theft of team information fit under the "best interests of baseball" clause? If gambling on baseball is still the death sentence offense in the baseball charter (see, Pete Rose), then what could the penalties be to the Cardinals if they were found guilty of spying?
The NFL came down hard on the Patriots for the seemingly mild cheat of deflating footballs. But the NFL was mad that the Patriots were flaunting the rules, authority and integrity of the game on multiple occasions. The real concern is whether the FBI investigation, with subpoena power and computer expertise to track computer files and transmissions, will lead to a scandal bigger than the original intrusion in the Astros computer servers.
It is really a lack of common sense. Every MLB team has their own computer data base programs. There are plenty of public resources like Fangraphs that are spitting out Moneyball statistics and analysis. Why the Cardinals or its employees would benefit from an Astro hack is the great unknown folly in this story.
April 24, 2015
RIDING EMOTIONS
You can beat fun at the old ball park by beating up each other.
Things started in the bottom of the seventh inning of Thursday night's White Sox-Royals contest. With two outs, White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton hit a comebacker to Royals pitcher Yordano Ventura. As Eaton was running to first, Ventura appeared to yell a not so friendly phrase at him. Ventura, yelled back at Eaton running down the line, prior to throwing the ball to first.
The first base umpire immediately got in front of Eaton, while the home plate ump came out in front of Ventura.
At that moment, both benches cleared. There was a lot of pushing and shoving, but no punches were thrown. As these tea kettle situations usually lose steam quickly, everyone had stopped their sumo stances and were just about ready to go back to their dugouts.
But then new White Sox pitcher Jeff Samardzija went after Royals outfielder Lorenzo Cain, causing a scrum on the field. As Samardzija charged at Cain, another Royals player, (another ex-NL Central rival, the later ejected) Edinson Volquez, took a swing at Samardzija.
Samardzija was eventually separated from the fray. He was held back by Geovany Soto, his teammate with both the Cubs and Athletics. After the game, Cain told reporters Samardzija had been chirping at him during the game - - - probably a hold over from Oakland's post game series. Earlier in the year, Samardzija hit Cain with a pitch that Cain thought was intentional (a carry over from last season).
Once the fight was over, the umpires gathered to figure out which players needed to be ejected from the contest. For the White Sox, that wound up being Samardzija and starting pitcher Chris Sale. Sale was still in the game at that point, though had thrown 99 pitches, so it was unclear whether he would have returned for the next inning.
The Royals lost Ventura, Cain and pitcher Volquez for the rest of the contest. For Ventura, this is the second straight game in which he has been ejected. Ventura was ejected in his last start against Oakland after hitting Brett Lawrie on the elbow with a pitch. This was an alleged retaliation for a hard slide Lawrie made in breaking up a double play. But that entire Royals-A’s series was mired with hit batters and scrums.
Given his recent history, it would be surprising if Ventura escapes this one without missing some time. Samardzija is also probably in line for a suspension. It's unclear whether Sale or Cain will be punished once Major League Baseball is able to review the entire brawl. Also, if Volquez was the player who threw the punch at Samardzija, it's likely he'll miss a start or two.
Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer said the Royals might be playing with too much emotion at the moment, and stressed that fights are never a great way to handle this type of situation.
The Royals are playing with a chip on their shoulder despite last season’s success. Some people thought the Royals just lucked out after decades of small market futility. But a very quick start to 10 wins gave the Royals some swagger which has turned into a macho Bad Boy Mentality.
It is the manager’s job to keep his team’s emotions in check, and channeled to productive aspects of the game. Losing three players in a fight is not a productive use of talent.
The new commissioner has a big decision on his hands. He will need to punish Ventura for his repeat behavior. It is a question whether he can corral the tempers to avoid baseball becoming a poor man’s hockey game.
Things started in the bottom of the seventh inning of Thursday night's White Sox-Royals contest. With two outs, White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton hit a comebacker to Royals pitcher Yordano Ventura. As Eaton was running to first, Ventura appeared to yell a not so friendly phrase at him. Ventura, yelled back at Eaton running down the line, prior to throwing the ball to first.
The first base umpire immediately got in front of Eaton, while the home plate ump came out in front of Ventura.
At that moment, both benches cleared. There was a lot of pushing and shoving, but no punches were thrown. As these tea kettle situations usually lose steam quickly, everyone had stopped their sumo stances and were just about ready to go back to their dugouts.
But then new White Sox pitcher Jeff Samardzija went after Royals outfielder Lorenzo Cain, causing a scrum on the field. As Samardzija charged at Cain, another Royals player, (another ex-NL Central rival, the later ejected) Edinson Volquez, took a swing at Samardzija.
Samardzija was eventually separated from the fray. He was held back by Geovany Soto, his teammate with both the Cubs and Athletics. After the game, Cain told reporters Samardzija had been chirping at him during the game - - - probably a hold over from Oakland's post game series. Earlier in the year, Samardzija hit Cain with a pitch that Cain thought was intentional (a carry over from last season).
Once the fight was over, the umpires gathered to figure out which players needed to be ejected from the contest. For the White Sox, that wound up being Samardzija and starting pitcher Chris Sale. Sale was still in the game at that point, though had thrown 99 pitches, so it was unclear whether he would have returned for the next inning.
The Royals lost Ventura, Cain and pitcher Volquez for the rest of the contest. For Ventura, this is the second straight game in which he has been ejected. Ventura was ejected in his last start against Oakland after hitting Brett Lawrie on the elbow with a pitch. This was an alleged retaliation for a hard slide Lawrie made in breaking up a double play. But that entire Royals-A’s series was mired with hit batters and scrums.
Given his recent history, it would be surprising if Ventura escapes this one without missing some time. Samardzija is also probably in line for a suspension. It's unclear whether Sale or Cain will be punished once Major League Baseball is able to review the entire brawl. Also, if Volquez was the player who threw the punch at Samardzija, it's likely he'll miss a start or two.
Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer said the Royals might be playing with too much emotion at the moment, and stressed that fights are never a great way to handle this type of situation.
The Royals are playing with a chip on their shoulder despite last season’s success. Some people thought the Royals just lucked out after decades of small market futility. But a very quick start to 10 wins gave the Royals some swagger which has turned into a macho Bad Boy Mentality.
It is the manager’s job to keep his team’s emotions in check, and channeled to productive aspects of the game. Losing three players in a fight is not a productive use of talent.
The new commissioner has a big decision on his hands. He will need to punish Ventura for his repeat behavior. It is a question whether he can corral the tempers to avoid baseball becoming a poor man’s hockey game.
April 20, 2015
EARLY STARTS
The Royals are off to another hot start while the Cubs have been better than expected for some pessimists.
I wondered if there was any early season spring training carryover on plate discipline. The Cubs were horrible striking out last year. The tone was to take more pitches and walks.
As of April 20th, the Cubs ranked 12th in the majors in team strikeouts with 97. The Astros were the worst with 114. The least strikeouts belonged to the Royals with 62. The Cubs are about 15% below the Astros current league leading K pace, whereas last year they were pretty much on par. A team cutting down 15% of their strikeouts means a team will have at least 4 ABs where the ball will either be in play or a walk. With a league team batting average of .250, that means at least one more hit per game. As we have seen in the close ball games this season, one more timely hit can mean victory.
The Red Sox lead the majors in getting walks with 55. The Cubs rank 9th with 43. The Rockies, who played a lot of home games in a HR park, had the least walks with 21.
So there appears to be some statistical evidence that the young Cub hitters are taking more pitches, taking more walks and striking out less than the league averages.
I wondered if there was any early season spring training carryover on plate discipline. The Cubs were horrible striking out last year. The tone was to take more pitches and walks.
As of April 20th, the Cubs ranked 12th in the majors in team strikeouts with 97. The Astros were the worst with 114. The least strikeouts belonged to the Royals with 62. The Cubs are about 15% below the Astros current league leading K pace, whereas last year they were pretty much on par. A team cutting down 15% of their strikeouts means a team will have at least 4 ABs where the ball will either be in play or a walk. With a league team batting average of .250, that means at least one more hit per game. As we have seen in the close ball games this season, one more timely hit can mean victory.
The Red Sox lead the majors in getting walks with 55. The Cubs rank 9th with 43. The Rockies, who played a lot of home games in a HR park, had the least walks with 21.
So there appears to be some statistical evidence that the young Cub hitters are taking more pitches, taking more walks and striking out less than the league averages.
October 28, 2014
FALLING STARS
Yahoo Sports reports that the 2015 World Series, despite having great characters and interesting storylines, has hit a ratings low not seen since the first Series broadcast in 1947.
So why are so few Americans captivated by the drama?
The
dynamic, too-young-to-worry Royals that brought Kansas City its first
pennant since 1985 and the colorful, resourceful San Francisco Giants
back to their third Series in five years have split the first two games.
Yet the ratings for Fox’s game one broadcast were the lowest since the Fall Classic was first televised in 1947, continuing a
steady, decade-long slide in the television audience for postseason
baseball.
Have Americans, in their 21st century over-stimulated haste, at last lost their patience for the leisurely pace of the game?
“It
has now become widely acknowledged,” says
Henry Blodget, “that even Major League Baseball is
starting to recognize just the pace of the game takes forever.” While
he notes that some game-hastening rules are being tested in the minor
leagues, in the majors long breaks, tedious pitcher rituals and TV
cutaways cause games to drag.
This
year the typical game in the majors this season exceeded three hours,
the longest average duration ever. Three decades ago, games were almost a
half-hour shorter. MLB, an otherwise thriving industry in terms of
attendance and revenues, and its newly elected Commissioner Rob Manfred has assigned a committee to figure out ways to quicken the pace of play. However, the players in the Arizona Fall League are having a tough time adjusting to the new pace of play rules.
Blodget
notes that pro football continues to dominate in TV mindshare, with its
built-for-TV physical drama and mayhem, augmented by runaway interest
in fantasy football and gambling. Tellingly, the NFL’s Thursday night
regular season game last week drew 25% more eyeballs than did World
Series game one.
October 12, 2014
THE DRUM BEAT
The constant drum beat of upbeat Cubs euphoria is getting on some people's nerves. The cheerleading about the great Cubs turnaround for 2015 is loud, clear and ridiculous. The bandwagon drivers are spouting off that the Cubs great farm system is going to produce great All Star caliber players right out of the gate because Epstein and Hoyer are boy geniuses who had a plan, and made it work.
The reality check is that the Cubs are following the path of the weakest sister. By putting all one's eggs in the minor league system, and needing home grown talent to be scouted, evaluated, drafted, signed, and most critically, developed, is not an easy task. The Royals have had a good farm system for a long time. But despite those awards, it took the Royals 29 years to get to the post season.
But desperate Cub fans are literally dying for the post season after watching the last terrible four years. There has been some progress in the win column, but the team still finished last in the NL Central. And there has been no commitment that the Cubs are going to veer off this minor league only rebuilding plan by splashing into the deep end of the free agent pool.
With the new tender amount at $15.3 million, even second tier free agents are going to be too expensive in a "small market" rebuild program.
The delusion is even more apparent when the bandwagon claims that the Cubs have Cy Youngsters in Arrieta and Hendricks to take the team to the next level. Arrieta was a touted Orioles prospect who has more bad innings in his career than good ones. Hendricks has not had a full season in the majors, and he has yet to adjust to the league that will learn his pitching technique. Even the solid bullpen may have had concurrent career years - - - Rondon could be the next Riveria or the Next Marmol.
There just is not enough evidence to say that the new Cubs are going to be good next year or the year after. There is more evidence that the big bat prospects have fundamental problems at the plate (an alarming strike out rate). A line up composed mainly of .210 hitters is going to lose 100 games.
Besides the fundamental baseball issues, 2015 cheerleaders have not factored in the probability of injuries. Soler has had an injury every year of his professional career. Hendricks has not pitched a full major league season. Baez has a high torque swing which could lead to back problems. Rizzo has had a bad back at the end of the season. Castro has dinged himself. Castillo has had a heavy workload behind the plate and has had injuries. The Cubs are not deep at any position to sustain a run to be competitive in 2015.
The higher expectations is to draw fans back into the Cubs world - - - i.e., to sell tickets. The expensive Wrigley renovations need cash flow. By marketing to potential season ticket holders "the wait is over" will bring in a few fence sitters. But not enough to make Ricketts borrow money to build the New Wrigley or spend a hundred million dollars on a free agent pitcher.
When the cheerleaders tout the rebuilding plan as a success, they still condition it on the fact that the team needs to fill in the gaps with free agents. Free agents to fill LF, CF and two starting spots. Possibly wanting to upgrade at catcher. Suddenly, you start adding up the "gaps" and you objectively see you still have half the starting positions that are not being adequately filled from within. This is classic double talk. When Ricketts bought the team, he announced it was only one or two players away from a championship. How wrong he was. But it the same story we are hearing now: one or two or three free agents away from a divisional title.
But any free agent will think twice about the Cubs. Recent history shows that quality free agent stars would rather take the money and sign with a real contender (Dodgers, Yankees, Tigers, Rangers, Angels) than a last place rebuilding club like the Cubs. Quality free agents are at the peak of their careers, and want to add to their legacy by getting into the postseason now. If the money is the same, who honestly believes Jon Lester is going to sign with the Cubs over the Yankees? Or the Dodgers? Or the Angels? Big market teams that can spend for talent are a bigger drawing card to a free agent than small market who are counting on prospects to win now.
The real expectation for the 2015 Cubs is around 72 wins. And that should not move the fan-o-meter very far toward being "all in" next year.
The reality check is that the Cubs are following the path of the weakest sister. By putting all one's eggs in the minor league system, and needing home grown talent to be scouted, evaluated, drafted, signed, and most critically, developed, is not an easy task. The Royals have had a good farm system for a long time. But despite those awards, it took the Royals 29 years to get to the post season.
But desperate Cub fans are literally dying for the post season after watching the last terrible four years. There has been some progress in the win column, but the team still finished last in the NL Central. And there has been no commitment that the Cubs are going to veer off this minor league only rebuilding plan by splashing into the deep end of the free agent pool.
With the new tender amount at $15.3 million, even second tier free agents are going to be too expensive in a "small market" rebuild program.
The delusion is even more apparent when the bandwagon claims that the Cubs have Cy Youngsters in Arrieta and Hendricks to take the team to the next level. Arrieta was a touted Orioles prospect who has more bad innings in his career than good ones. Hendricks has not had a full season in the majors, and he has yet to adjust to the league that will learn his pitching technique. Even the solid bullpen may have had concurrent career years - - - Rondon could be the next Riveria or the Next Marmol.
There just is not enough evidence to say that the new Cubs are going to be good next year or the year after. There is more evidence that the big bat prospects have fundamental problems at the plate (an alarming strike out rate). A line up composed mainly of .210 hitters is going to lose 100 games.
Besides the fundamental baseball issues, 2015 cheerleaders have not factored in the probability of injuries. Soler has had an injury every year of his professional career. Hendricks has not pitched a full major league season. Baez has a high torque swing which could lead to back problems. Rizzo has had a bad back at the end of the season. Castro has dinged himself. Castillo has had a heavy workload behind the plate and has had injuries. The Cubs are not deep at any position to sustain a run to be competitive in 2015.
The higher expectations is to draw fans back into the Cubs world - - - i.e., to sell tickets. The expensive Wrigley renovations need cash flow. By marketing to potential season ticket holders "the wait is over" will bring in a few fence sitters. But not enough to make Ricketts borrow money to build the New Wrigley or spend a hundred million dollars on a free agent pitcher.
When the cheerleaders tout the rebuilding plan as a success, they still condition it on the fact that the team needs to fill in the gaps with free agents. Free agents to fill LF, CF and two starting spots. Possibly wanting to upgrade at catcher. Suddenly, you start adding up the "gaps" and you objectively see you still have half the starting positions that are not being adequately filled from within. This is classic double talk. When Ricketts bought the team, he announced it was only one or two players away from a championship. How wrong he was. But it the same story we are hearing now: one or two or three free agents away from a divisional title.
But any free agent will think twice about the Cubs. Recent history shows that quality free agent stars would rather take the money and sign with a real contender (Dodgers, Yankees, Tigers, Rangers, Angels) than a last place rebuilding club like the Cubs. Quality free agents are at the peak of their careers, and want to add to their legacy by getting into the postseason now. If the money is the same, who honestly believes Jon Lester is going to sign with the Cubs over the Yankees? Or the Dodgers? Or the Angels? Big market teams that can spend for talent are a bigger drawing card to a free agent than small market who are counting on prospects to win now.
The real expectation for the 2015 Cubs is around 72 wins. And that should not move the fan-o-meter very far toward being "all in" next year.
September 27, 2014
28
CHICAGO (AP) -- The mob arrived as soon as Salvador Perez squeezed that final foul popup, officially bringing Kansas City's playoff drought to an end.
Yes, the Royals are going back to the postseason.
Kansas City clinched a playoff spot Friday night for the first time in 29 years, beating the Chicago White Sox 3-1 behind seven scoreless innings from Jeremy Guthrie.
Kansas
City secured at least a wild card and ended the longest active
postseason drought among the major North American sports leagues. The
last time the Royals made it to the playoffs, George Brett led Kansas
City to a World Series victory over St. Louis in 1985.
''It feels better than expected,'' said Billy Butler,
a 2004 draft pick and eight-year veteran. ''It's a great thing. I'm
proud to bring this organization something they envisioned when they
drafted me.''
>>>> It took the Royals 28 years to get back to the post season, even though:
A. They continually drafted high each year in the amateur drafts.
B. They had a consistently good farm system of prospects.
C. They promoted their valued home grown prospects on a regular basis.
As a small market team, the Royals did not have the financial standing to compete on the major free agent market. Therefore, the team had to rely on its scouting and development departments in order to build a winning organization. This is the classic small market approach.
Which is exactly the approach the Cubs have been using the past four years. The emphasis on home grown talent (which is cheaper and under 6 years of cost control) is a noble quest, but it does not mean instant or continuous success. The Royals are the perfect example; it took almost three decades to achieve the minimum goal of each spring training - - - to make the playoffs.
So when the Cub media cheerleaders are jumping up and down this winter, saying that the Cubs are going to be in the wild card hunt, don't believe them. Remember the Royals journey to success.
August 20, 2014
ASSUMPTIONS
A recent Grantland piece attempted to counter long time worn baseball expressions like "pitching wins World Series," "you cannot have enough pitching," and "good pitching beats good hitting."
The author takes the view that the Cubs, by rebuilding their farm system with dynamic hitters instead of golden arm pitchers, are doing the right thing. The article fails to make the post-season point that "pitching and defense" wins championships.
Current case in point is the Kansas City Royals. In their current decade long rebuilding process, they have stumbled into first place in the AL Central not by hitting, but by the best outfield defense in the majors and solid pitching from starters and the pen. The Tigers have a powerful hitting line up, but fell out of first place when their starting pitchers began to get hurt.
Also, with the rash of TJ injuries early in the season, many teams were scrambling to find pitchers. Teams with pitching prospects kept them instead of using them as trade bait. The Cubs were able to get two premium prospects from the A's for two proven starters.
The article assumes that a great hitting team will take down an army of pitchers during the season and better quality staff in the playoffs. But the numbers show that even the best hitters today only get a hit every 3 out of 10 at bats. Home run hitters ring up a dinger maybe once in every 16 plate appearances.
To assume the Cubs are doing their rebuild "the right way" because it is different begs the question: if it is right, why are the other teams doing the opposite?
For every Clayton Kershaw, there are 40 Edwin Jacksons. There are only 4 aces in a deck of cards (7.7 percent) which is good analogy because even if every club has its "ace" Number One starter, that is 20 percent; but in reality, the bottom teams don't have the same type of dominate pitchers so overall it is really around 10 percent of starters are aces.
It is not to say that the Cubs were wrong in obtaining as many bats as they could. The team has been an offensive offense for years. Taking the best college hitter in Kris Bryant is what I suggested before the draft. Taking Kyle Schwarber was a reach for a catching prospect, but he was another top college hitter. But one must realize that in the first two drafts, Epstein and Hoyer took mostly pitchers - - - and none of them have panned out so far.
The author takes the view that the Cubs, by rebuilding their farm system with dynamic hitters instead of golden arm pitchers, are doing the right thing. The article fails to make the post-season point that "pitching and defense" wins championships.
Current case in point is the Kansas City Royals. In their current decade long rebuilding process, they have stumbled into first place in the AL Central not by hitting, but by the best outfield defense in the majors and solid pitching from starters and the pen. The Tigers have a powerful hitting line up, but fell out of first place when their starting pitchers began to get hurt.
Also, with the rash of TJ injuries early in the season, many teams were scrambling to find pitchers. Teams with pitching prospects kept them instead of using them as trade bait. The Cubs were able to get two premium prospects from the A's for two proven starters.
The article assumes that a great hitting team will take down an army of pitchers during the season and better quality staff in the playoffs. But the numbers show that even the best hitters today only get a hit every 3 out of 10 at bats. Home run hitters ring up a dinger maybe once in every 16 plate appearances.
To assume the Cubs are doing their rebuild "the right way" because it is different begs the question: if it is right, why are the other teams doing the opposite?
For every Clayton Kershaw, there are 40 Edwin Jacksons. There are only 4 aces in a deck of cards (7.7 percent) which is good analogy because even if every club has its "ace" Number One starter, that is 20 percent; but in reality, the bottom teams don't have the same type of dominate pitchers so overall it is really around 10 percent of starters are aces.
It is not to say that the Cubs were wrong in obtaining as many bats as they could. The team has been an offensive offense for years. Taking the best college hitter in Kris Bryant is what I suggested before the draft. Taking Kyle Schwarber was a reach for a catching prospect, but he was another top college hitter. But one must realize that in the first two drafts, Epstein and Hoyer took mostly pitchers - - - and none of them have panned out so far.
February 26, 2014
AL CENTRAL PREVIEW
The Chicago White Sox had a disappointing 2013 campaign. But the team has re-tooled their line up for 2014, but how does it stack up against the AL Central. ESPN has an early spring training preview of the lineups:
Detroit
Pros: still has best hitter in game (Cabrera); added Kinsler to bolster 2B
Cons: new manager (Ausmus); Fielder traded to Rangers.
Projected lineup
Austin Jackson, CF
Ian Kinsler, 2B
Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Victor Martinez, DH
Torii Hunter, RF
Andy Dirks, LF
Nick Castellanos, 3B
Alex Avila, C
Jose Igesias, SS
The question remains whether the Tigers can overcome the loss of Fielder's production by
good years from Castellanos at third and Kinsler at second. The team has aging veterans in Martinez and Hunter in the middle of the order. Dirks appears to be a platoon candidate in left.
This lineup does not appear to be as strong as last season.
Cleveland
Pros: Santana poised for a break out season;
Cons: questions about outfield production
Projected lineup
Michael Bourn, CF
Nick Swisher, 1B
Jason Kipnis, 2B
Carlos Santana, DH
Michael Brantley, LF
Yan Gomes, C
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS
David Murphy, RF
Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B
The top of the order appears to be fine. The bottom is of a concern. If Chisenhall does not make a big contribution, Santana could move to third and open a spot for Ryan Raburn.
Consistent run production is going to be the issue with this lineup.
Kansas City
Pros: speed at the top of the lineup;
Cons: lack of distributed power in the lineup.
Projected lineup
Norichika Aoki, RF
Alex Gordon, LF
Eric Hosmer, 1B
Billy Butler, DH
Salvador Perez, C
Omar Infante, 2B
Mike Moustakas, 3B
Lorenzo Cain, CF
Alcides Escobar, SS
There is plenty of speed on the team to manufacture runs, if batters can get on base. This is another team of relative unknowns playing in a small market town who have to overperform in order to get noticed.
Minnesota
Pros: The minors have upcoming talent in Miguel Sano and Bryon Buxton.
Cons: Aging Mauer now at first, no lead off hitter.
Projected lineup
Alex Presley, CF
Brian Dozier, 2B
Joe Mauer, 1B
Josh Willingham, LF
Oswaldo Arcia, RF
Jason Kubel, DH
Josmil Pinto, C
Trevor Plouffe, 3B
Pedro Florimon, SS
Mauer is still the team's best hitter, but there is no protection behind him. Kubel is a non-roster invitee so that shows the lack of major league depth since he will probably start as the team's DH. If Pinto does not pan, the team signed veteran Kurt Suzuki as back up. The Twins are a team in hard transition. It appears the Twins will fall to the bottom of the division.
Chicago
Pros: Added potential impact players in Eaton, Abreu and Garcia since last opening day;
Cons: the infield is in flux
Projected lineup
Adam Eaton, CF
Alejandro De Aza, LF
Jose Abreu, 1B
Adam Dunn, DH
Avisail Garcia, RF
Alexi Ramirez, SS
Gordon Beckham, 2B
Matt Davidson, 3B
Josh Phegley, C
Eaton was acquired to lead off, and play a quality defensive CF. De Aza was the best outfielder on the team last season, but he will probably platoon in left with Dayan Viciedo, who has been disappointing on offense. Ramirez and Beckham regressed last season, and third base is still an open wound. Rookie Matt Davidson could win the job, but it is probable that Conor Gillaspie will continue to place hold the position. Dunn will platoon with Paul Konerko at DH which could improve the production at that slot.
None of the lineups go more than five deep in good hitters. None of the lineups blows away the competition. There is so much uncertainty with these teams going through transition, it could be a wild open race decided by the quality of pitching staffs.
Detroit
Pros: still has best hitter in game (Cabrera); added Kinsler to bolster 2B
Cons: new manager (Ausmus); Fielder traded to Rangers.
Projected lineup
Austin Jackson, CF
Ian Kinsler, 2B
Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Victor Martinez, DH
Torii Hunter, RF
Andy Dirks, LF
Nick Castellanos, 3B
Alex Avila, C
Jose Igesias, SS
The question remains whether the Tigers can overcome the loss of Fielder's production by
good years from Castellanos at third and Kinsler at second. The team has aging veterans in Martinez and Hunter in the middle of the order. Dirks appears to be a platoon candidate in left.
This lineup does not appear to be as strong as last season.
Cleveland
Pros: Santana poised for a break out season;
Cons: questions about outfield production
Projected lineup
Michael Bourn, CF
Nick Swisher, 1B
Jason Kipnis, 2B
Carlos Santana, DH
Michael Brantley, LF
Yan Gomes, C
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS
David Murphy, RF
Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B
The top of the order appears to be fine. The bottom is of a concern. If Chisenhall does not make a big contribution, Santana could move to third and open a spot for Ryan Raburn.
Consistent run production is going to be the issue with this lineup.
Kansas City
Pros: speed at the top of the lineup;
Cons: lack of distributed power in the lineup.
Projected lineup
Norichika Aoki, RF
Alex Gordon, LF
Eric Hosmer, 1B
Billy Butler, DH
Salvador Perez, C
Omar Infante, 2B
Mike Moustakas, 3B
Lorenzo Cain, CF
Alcides Escobar, SS
There is plenty of speed on the team to manufacture runs, if batters can get on base. This is another team of relative unknowns playing in a small market town who have to overperform in order to get noticed.
Minnesota
Pros: The minors have upcoming talent in Miguel Sano and Bryon Buxton.
Cons: Aging Mauer now at first, no lead off hitter.
Projected lineup
Alex Presley, CF
Brian Dozier, 2B
Joe Mauer, 1B
Josh Willingham, LF
Oswaldo Arcia, RF
Jason Kubel, DH
Josmil Pinto, C
Trevor Plouffe, 3B
Pedro Florimon, SS
Mauer is still the team's best hitter, but there is no protection behind him. Kubel is a non-roster invitee so that shows the lack of major league depth since he will probably start as the team's DH. If Pinto does not pan, the team signed veteran Kurt Suzuki as back up. The Twins are a team in hard transition. It appears the Twins will fall to the bottom of the division.
Chicago
Pros: Added potential impact players in Eaton, Abreu and Garcia since last opening day;
Cons: the infield is in flux
Projected lineup
Adam Eaton, CF
Alejandro De Aza, LF
Jose Abreu, 1B
Adam Dunn, DH
Avisail Garcia, RF
Alexi Ramirez, SS
Gordon Beckham, 2B
Matt Davidson, 3B
Josh Phegley, C
Eaton was acquired to lead off, and play a quality defensive CF. De Aza was the best outfielder on the team last season, but he will probably platoon in left with Dayan Viciedo, who has been disappointing on offense. Ramirez and Beckham regressed last season, and third base is still an open wound. Rookie Matt Davidson could win the job, but it is probable that Conor Gillaspie will continue to place hold the position. Dunn will platoon with Paul Konerko at DH which could improve the production at that slot.
None of the lineups go more than five deep in good hitters. None of the lineups blows away the competition. There is so much uncertainty with these teams going through transition, it could be a wild open race decided by the quality of pitching staffs.
November 17, 2013
TUCKPOINTING THE BASE
The Cubs spent a weekend trying to rally current season ticket holders to renew their seats for the next season(s). The Cubs thanked the fans for their loyalty and patience, but still wanted the renewal deposits this week.
In all the buzz words of how the Cubs are going about their rebuild, there is little time table for success being given as the goal line for the plan. In interviews, Epstein says the team is a
"couple years away" from the start of the core prospects making it to the major league roster. The team continues to stress that the farm system is now ranked in the top 5 in major league baseball. There are plenty of good prospects on the horizon. Patience and loyalty will be rewarded.
That is all fine and good for the long term. But most fans want to know about the present and near term. Since Ricketts purchased the team, it has set futility records.
Cub fans have inherit qualities to root for the underdog. Top prospects are now the underdogs that fans can root for as they make their way out of Class A ball. When die hard fans know more about the Daytona Cubs than the Chicago Cubs, that is a problem because the revenue core must be generated at the major league level to support the entire organization.
More and more fan comments have fallen on the side that the Cubs are being run like the small market Kansas City Royals. That is not a compliment. If ownership and the team have limited revenue resources being in a small population center, and relatively smaller advertising and broadcast rights markets, then the emphasis must be on developing one's own talent. But even the Royals trade their talent to acquire quality players and sign free agents to fill need positions on the major league roster.
In all the off-season talk so far, the Cubs have not outlined what they are going to do this off-season to improve the major league club. They have said that the team will not be in the big money free agent market place, so top talent like Choo, Cano, and Tanaka are off the radar. In addition, the Cubs current roster is not blocking any of the prized prospects from promotion this year or next year. Even signing a quality free agent for two years is not going to upset the rebuilding and promotion of prospects long term.
The concern for the fan base is that 2014 is going to be a repeat of 2013, another non-competitive punt season. Field position works as a strategy in football, but in baseball there is a constant need to look at, evaluate and upgrade every position on the roster. The fan base does not get any sense of urgency from Cub management.
In all the buzz words of how the Cubs are going about their rebuild, there is little time table for success being given as the goal line for the plan. In interviews, Epstein says the team is a
"couple years away" from the start of the core prospects making it to the major league roster. The team continues to stress that the farm system is now ranked in the top 5 in major league baseball. There are plenty of good prospects on the horizon. Patience and loyalty will be rewarded.
That is all fine and good for the long term. But most fans want to know about the present and near term. Since Ricketts purchased the team, it has set futility records.
Cub fans have inherit qualities to root for the underdog. Top prospects are now the underdogs that fans can root for as they make their way out of Class A ball. When die hard fans know more about the Daytona Cubs than the Chicago Cubs, that is a problem because the revenue core must be generated at the major league level to support the entire organization.
More and more fan comments have fallen on the side that the Cubs are being run like the small market Kansas City Royals. That is not a compliment. If ownership and the team have limited revenue resources being in a small population center, and relatively smaller advertising and broadcast rights markets, then the emphasis must be on developing one's own talent. But even the Royals trade their talent to acquire quality players and sign free agents to fill need positions on the major league roster.
In all the off-season talk so far, the Cubs have not outlined what they are going to do this off-season to improve the major league club. They have said that the team will not be in the big money free agent market place, so top talent like Choo, Cano, and Tanaka are off the radar. In addition, the Cubs current roster is not blocking any of the prized prospects from promotion this year or next year. Even signing a quality free agent for two years is not going to upset the rebuilding and promotion of prospects long term.
The concern for the fan base is that 2014 is going to be a repeat of 2013, another non-competitive punt season. Field position works as a strategy in football, but in baseball there is a constant need to look at, evaluate and upgrade every position on the roster. The fan base does not get any sense of urgency from Cub management.
July 25, 2013
PITTSBURGH OR KANSAS CITY?
There is a great debate on how long will it take Epstein-Hoyer to rebuild the Cubs into a championship caliber club. By stuffing the low minors with prospects may be part of The Plan, but there have been other teams doing the same thing for a longer time. The question may come down to what path the Cubs are on: the road to Pittsburgh (currently in 2nd place in NL Central) or to Kansas City (a club in perpetual rebuild mode).
Pittsburgh began pro ball in 1882. It's first playoff team was in 1903 (21 years later). In 1909 and 1925 it won the World Series. In 1927 it lost the series. In 1960, after a 33 year playoff drought, the Pirates won the World Series. In 1970, the Pirates started another playoff run. In 1971, it won the World Series. In 1972, 1974 and 1975, it lost in the NLCS. Then in 1979, it won the World Series. The next year, the team missed the playoffs with a 83-79 record.
The next playoff run for the Pirates began in 1990, and for three season they lost in the NLCS. In 1993, the team record fell to 75-87. Since 1994, the Pirates did not have one .500 team. It has been 20 years since a playoff berth.
The Pirates history indicates that it usually takes 20 years to get champion caliber teams.
The Royals began in 1969 as an expansion team. It had to build an organization from the ground up. It's first playoff team happened 7 years later in 1976, losing in the ALCS. This was repeated in 1977 and 1978. In 1980, it lost in the World Series. In 1981, it lost in the first round of the playoffs. In 1984, it lost in the ALCS. Then, in 1985, it won the World Series. The next year, the club went 76-86.
Since 1987, the Royals have had seven above .500 teams. The last .500 team was in 2003 (83-79). The Royals have gone 10 years since being a .500 squad. The Royals have gone 27 years without a playoff team.
From what the Cubs plan on doing, these comparisons are valid even though Chicago is not a small market team. At best, it may take seven years of building to get a playoff team (which would mean 2018). At worst, it could around 15 years or 2025 to have a championship caliber team. And the worst case scenario is a possibility because ownership will be borrowing most of the $500 million to redevelop the Ricketts properties. The Cubs ball club only rents Wrigley Field. It does not own it. Separate legal entities own the three main parcels to be redeveloped. The new revenue streams will flow into those separate businesses to pay down the massive debt and maintenance for the new buildings. For all the assumption that the Cubs will suddenly have unlimited resources to spend on free agents in the near future is a myth. The Cubs will be rebuilding like a small market team since the new revenue will be diverted to pay construction and land development expenses first, with very little trickle down to the club (only the improvements inside Wrigley).
Pittsburgh began pro ball in 1882. It's first playoff team was in 1903 (21 years later). In 1909 and 1925 it won the World Series. In 1927 it lost the series. In 1960, after a 33 year playoff drought, the Pirates won the World Series. In 1970, the Pirates started another playoff run. In 1971, it won the World Series. In 1972, 1974 and 1975, it lost in the NLCS. Then in 1979, it won the World Series. The next year, the team missed the playoffs with a 83-79 record.
The next playoff run for the Pirates began in 1990, and for three season they lost in the NLCS. In 1993, the team record fell to 75-87. Since 1994, the Pirates did not have one .500 team. It has been 20 years since a playoff berth.
The Pirates history indicates that it usually takes 20 years to get champion caliber teams.
The Royals began in 1969 as an expansion team. It had to build an organization from the ground up. It's first playoff team happened 7 years later in 1976, losing in the ALCS. This was repeated in 1977 and 1978. In 1980, it lost in the World Series. In 1981, it lost in the first round of the playoffs. In 1984, it lost in the ALCS. Then, in 1985, it won the World Series. The next year, the club went 76-86.
Since 1987, the Royals have had seven above .500 teams. The last .500 team was in 2003 (83-79). The Royals have gone 10 years since being a .500 squad. The Royals have gone 27 years without a playoff team.
From what the Cubs plan on doing, these comparisons are valid even though Chicago is not a small market team. At best, it may take seven years of building to get a playoff team (which would mean 2018). At worst, it could around 15 years or 2025 to have a championship caliber team. And the worst case scenario is a possibility because ownership will be borrowing most of the $500 million to redevelop the Ricketts properties. The Cubs ball club only rents Wrigley Field. It does not own it. Separate legal entities own the three main parcels to be redeveloped. The new revenue streams will flow into those separate businesses to pay down the massive debt and maintenance for the new buildings. For all the assumption that the Cubs will suddenly have unlimited resources to spend on free agents in the near future is a myth. The Cubs will be rebuilding like a small market team since the new revenue will be diverted to pay construction and land development expenses first, with very little trickle down to the club (only the improvements inside Wrigley).
June 10, 2013
PERPETUAL REBUILD
There were a couple of general trends from this year's baseball draft.
First, the teams have a better understanding of the new CBA. Instead of taking the best pick, teams now are more focused in on how to maximize the signing bonus pool and how to sign prospects who fall down the board. The general consensus from draft bird dogs this year was most teams used their first round pick for the best player available on their board. But after the second round, the teams took players they thought they could sign for less than allocated slot money. The players in rounds 3 to 10 fit into this category. Teams that drafted college seniors in this area are the ones with the most leverage to sign a player who does not have the option not to sign and return to college to play. Then some teams would draft harder to sign players by paying them more in rounds 11-15. The draft in some respects has turned into a chess match between clubs and between player agents.
Second, some teams continued to focus in on high school players with high picks because they are generally cheaper to sign. Those motivated athletes do not want to go to college so they want to start their careers earlier with the hopes of reaching the majors quicker. Teams have to be more patient with these picks because this talent is raw.
Third, some teams drafted college juniors with the expectation that those players may not sign with the clubs. The Cubs went through an early stretch of drafting college junior pitchers. A few of them dropped down the board because of injury, signability or control issues. If the player believes he can rebound with another year of college to spring to the top two rounds, he will go back to school because that could mean more than a million dollar signing bonus pop. However, a few of them were drafted two or so rounds ahead of pundit expectations. Those players must think that they may never be drafted that high again, so they are motivated to sign this year.
Fourth, some teams are looking more toward international camps to find new talent. The Cubs are investing heavily in a Caribbean baseball academy to get the inside track on young talent. Many teams are using their professional scouts to review international games in Asia. The expansion is reasonable because less American boys grow up playing baseball with the other sports such as football and basketball being so popular.
Then, there was a short discussion during the weekend game about what this all means. There are some teams that historically draft well, and train their talent to get them to the big leagues. The Royals are a prime example of drafting and development blueprint. Some teams have the knack of getting their prospects to play the game the right way. However, it was mentioned by Jim Deshaies that once the minor league talent is promoted, their development and production drops. He said that teams need to continue coaching players, especially young rookies, at the major league level.
We see that problem with the Cubs all the time. The players make the same mistakes over and over again. Players like Starlin Castro seem to be regressing instead of progressing as each season passes. Some managers believe that once you make it to the big leagues, that means the player is ready. If the player is a professional, it is up to him to refine his skills and be prepared for each game. Dusty Baker was a proponent of that hands off approach to managing his teams. It probably works better with a veteran team like Baker has had during his career.
But for a team like the Royals, who are in a constant rebuild mode, that is a disaster. One basically gets a steady inventory of AAAA players making it to the major leagues year after year. The results are that your team stays at the bottom of the division.
One of the other story lines from the weekend was the open question when first pick Kris Bryant would make his major league debut. It was thought that the Cubs are very fixed in their promotion markers, like all position players should have at least 500 AB in AAA. Some believe that Bryant will start out in Class A ball, and once he hits his production markers, he could be quickly promoted up the system. That seems to be a low starting point for the best power hitter in the draft. The problem is starting him too low which may actually impede development. Bryant himself thinks he is ready now. Some other scouts believe he could be in the majors by next spring. But there has been no word from the Cubs on how they will deal with Bryant.
First, the teams have a better understanding of the new CBA. Instead of taking the best pick, teams now are more focused in on how to maximize the signing bonus pool and how to sign prospects who fall down the board. The general consensus from draft bird dogs this year was most teams used their first round pick for the best player available on their board. But after the second round, the teams took players they thought they could sign for less than allocated slot money. The players in rounds 3 to 10 fit into this category. Teams that drafted college seniors in this area are the ones with the most leverage to sign a player who does not have the option not to sign and return to college to play. Then some teams would draft harder to sign players by paying them more in rounds 11-15. The draft in some respects has turned into a chess match between clubs and between player agents.
Second, some teams continued to focus in on high school players with high picks because they are generally cheaper to sign. Those motivated athletes do not want to go to college so they want to start their careers earlier with the hopes of reaching the majors quicker. Teams have to be more patient with these picks because this talent is raw.
Third, some teams drafted college juniors with the expectation that those players may not sign with the clubs. The Cubs went through an early stretch of drafting college junior pitchers. A few of them dropped down the board because of injury, signability or control issues. If the player believes he can rebound with another year of college to spring to the top two rounds, he will go back to school because that could mean more than a million dollar signing bonus pop. However, a few of them were drafted two or so rounds ahead of pundit expectations. Those players must think that they may never be drafted that high again, so they are motivated to sign this year.
Fourth, some teams are looking more toward international camps to find new talent. The Cubs are investing heavily in a Caribbean baseball academy to get the inside track on young talent. Many teams are using their professional scouts to review international games in Asia. The expansion is reasonable because less American boys grow up playing baseball with the other sports such as football and basketball being so popular.
Then, there was a short discussion during the weekend game about what this all means. There are some teams that historically draft well, and train their talent to get them to the big leagues. The Royals are a prime example of drafting and development blueprint. Some teams have the knack of getting their prospects to play the game the right way. However, it was mentioned by Jim Deshaies that once the minor league talent is promoted, their development and production drops. He said that teams need to continue coaching players, especially young rookies, at the major league level.
We see that problem with the Cubs all the time. The players make the same mistakes over and over again. Players like Starlin Castro seem to be regressing instead of progressing as each season passes. Some managers believe that once you make it to the big leagues, that means the player is ready. If the player is a professional, it is up to him to refine his skills and be prepared for each game. Dusty Baker was a proponent of that hands off approach to managing his teams. It probably works better with a veteran team like Baker has had during his career.
But for a team like the Royals, who are in a constant rebuild mode, that is a disaster. One basically gets a steady inventory of AAAA players making it to the major leagues year after year. The results are that your team stays at the bottom of the division.
One of the other story lines from the weekend was the open question when first pick Kris Bryant would make his major league debut. It was thought that the Cubs are very fixed in their promotion markers, like all position players should have at least 500 AB in AAA. Some believe that Bryant will start out in Class A ball, and once he hits his production markers, he could be quickly promoted up the system. That seems to be a low starting point for the best power hitter in the draft. The problem is starting him too low which may actually impede development. Bryant himself thinks he is ready now. Some other scouts believe he could be in the majors by next spring. But there has been no word from the Cubs on how they will deal with Bryant.
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