Kris Bryant today makes his major league debut. He was drafted two years ago by the Cubs, a move that I endorsed before the draft because Bryant was the best player in the draft. He has not disappointed in his short minor league career. Last season, in 138 games, he hit 43 HR, 110 RBI, 15 SB, .325 BA, .438 OBP and .661 SLG.
The "excuse" to call him up today is that injuries to Mike Olt and Tommy LaStella created a need to promote a third baseman. It happens to fall on the cut off date which allows the Cubs to hold onto Bryant for another contract year.
There is so much hype about Bryant's debut, it harks back to only two short years ago when the last great prospect, Brett Jackson, arrived at Wrigley. Jackson had hit 15 HR, 47 RBI, stole 27 bases, hit .256 with .338 OBP and .479 SLG prior to his call-up, but he was touted as a five-tool player. In his 44 game debut, Jackson failed. It started a quick fall out of the organization for the team's #1 prospect.
Or in 2008, Micah Hoffpauir in 71 games in AAA hit 25 HR, 100 RBI and hit .362. His major league career bloomed for a half season (with an All Star selection), then faded faster than a shooting star.
We expect Bryant to be different than Jackson or Hoffpauir. The front office hopes Bryant will be different. The business side of the team needs Bryant to be different.
Fans salivate that the "final" piece of the puzzle is now on the team. But this glosses over a growing issue - - - the stellar bullpen is starting to come a part with injuries (Grimm, now Ramirez). But for now, in a suddenly warm day in Chicago, the sunshine spotlight will fall on Bryant.
How Maddon uses him in the lineup is going to be interesting. Maddon continues to move people around the order. I would prefer that he settle in a set lineup card. By moving the traditional #2 hitter to the 9th spot, he is giving Rizzo and Soler an extra at-bat or two during a series. With Bryant in the middle of the order, Soler will have some greater protection.
1. Fowler cf
2. Rizzo 1b
3. Soler rf
4. Bryant 3b
5. Castro ss
6. Montero c
7. Coghlan lf
8. Pitcher p
9. Alcantara 2b
Showing posts with label prospect. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prospect. Show all posts
April 17, 2015
February 6, 2015
HOPE ENDS
Again, another example of the cautionary tale of what top prospects mean in baseball.
The Rockies signed Josh Vitters to a minor league contract.
Who knew Vitters was out of the Cubs organization?
The 2007 No. 3 overall pick never amounted to anything in the Cubs system despite placing in Baseball Prospectus' Top 50 prospects from 2008-10 (and in the Top 70 of Baseball America during that span).
Vitters is still only 25 (and won't turn 26 until August), but posted just a .276/.322/.440 slash line in eight minor-league seasons with the Cubs.
Vitters hit only .213 with a lowly .607 OPS in 112 games for Triple-A Iowa in 2014.
Vitters was such a prized prospect who never really got over the Triple-A talent hump. He was supposed to be a high average, good third baseman for a decade, an heir to Bill Madlock. But as is the case with most prospects, they fail. Vitters is one of the more recent Cubs casualties.
The Rockies signed Josh Vitters to a minor league contract.
Who knew Vitters was out of the Cubs organization?
The 2007 No. 3 overall pick never amounted to anything in the Cubs system despite placing in Baseball Prospectus' Top 50 prospects from 2008-10 (and in the Top 70 of Baseball America during that span).
Vitters is still only 25 (and won't turn 26 until August), but posted just a .276/.322/.440 slash line in eight minor-league seasons with the Cubs.
Vitters hit only .213 with a lowly .607 OPS in 112 games for Triple-A Iowa in 2014.
Vitters was such a prized prospect who never really got over the Triple-A talent hump. He was supposed to be a high average, good third baseman for a decade, an heir to Bill Madlock. But as is the case with most prospects, they fail. Vitters is one of the more recent Cubs casualties.
August 16, 2014
BEWARE VAULTED PROSPECTS
MLBTR reports that the Diamondbacks have acquired Cubs former first-round pick and top prospect Brett Jackson for minor league reliever Blake Cooper.
Jackson, 26, rated as one of the game’s top 100 prospects from
2010-12, according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus (he
topped out at No. 32 on BA’s list and No. 44 on BP’s list). Jackson was sold as a "five tool" player - - - hit for average, power, with speed and very good defensive skills. When his
stock was at its highest, BA likened him to Jim Edmonds,
noting that he had that type of ceiling at the plate, if not that type
of Gold Glove caliber defense in center field.
However, Jackson’s swing-and-miss tendencies caused his stock to plummet, as a problem he looked to have eliminated at the Double-A level resurfaced in Triple-A and still has yet to be corrected. Jackson was batting just .210/.298/.348 with a 37.3 percent strikeout rate for Triple-A Iowa this season and will look to deliver on some of his once sky-high potential in a new organization.
Jackson only had a brief stint in the majors. In 2012, he was called up and played in 44 games. In 142 plate appearances, he hit .175, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 59K, 22 BB for a 0.1 WAR. His strike out rate of 41.6 percent led to his permanent demotion. Jackson quickly faded off the Cubs top prospects list, and at one point was further demoted to AA. Like many other touted "can't miss" prospects, Jackson never filled his potential. This appears to be a change of scenery move to clear a 40 man roster space for the Cubs.
Cooper, also 26, was a 12th-round pick by the Diamondbacks in 2010 and reached Triple-A for the first time in 2014. Though he’s struggled to a 6.00 ERA in 24 innings there, Cooper was excellent at Double-A this year, posting a 1.85 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 34 frames. His command has faltered since moving up to the top minor league level, as he’s walked 17 hitters in his 24 innings at Reno. The 5’11″, 190-pound righty has never ranked among Arizona’s top 30 prospects, according to BA, and he didn’t rank on MLB.com’s midseason list of the D’Backs’ top 20 prospects either. In parts of five minor league seasons, Cooper has a 3.27 ERA with a 217-to-98 K/BB ratio (seven of those free passes were intentional) in 236 2/3 innings.
There is caution in this trade story. Javy Baez continues to rack up strike outs. In 45 plate appearances, he has 17 Ks for a rate of 37.8 percent, which is too high for a major league player. The pressure to conform and adjust to major league pitching doomed Jackson's fate. He could not cut down on his strikeouts which torpedoed his value as a hitter. Baez is currently in the same audition mode as Jackson had in 2012.
However, Jackson’s swing-and-miss tendencies caused his stock to plummet, as a problem he looked to have eliminated at the Double-A level resurfaced in Triple-A and still has yet to be corrected. Jackson was batting just .210/.298/.348 with a 37.3 percent strikeout rate for Triple-A Iowa this season and will look to deliver on some of his once sky-high potential in a new organization.
Jackson only had a brief stint in the majors. In 2012, he was called up and played in 44 games. In 142 plate appearances, he hit .175, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 59K, 22 BB for a 0.1 WAR. His strike out rate of 41.6 percent led to his permanent demotion. Jackson quickly faded off the Cubs top prospects list, and at one point was further demoted to AA. Like many other touted "can't miss" prospects, Jackson never filled his potential. This appears to be a change of scenery move to clear a 40 man roster space for the Cubs.
Cooper, also 26, was a 12th-round pick by the Diamondbacks in 2010 and reached Triple-A for the first time in 2014. Though he’s struggled to a 6.00 ERA in 24 innings there, Cooper was excellent at Double-A this year, posting a 1.85 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 34 frames. His command has faltered since moving up to the top minor league level, as he’s walked 17 hitters in his 24 innings at Reno. The 5’11″, 190-pound righty has never ranked among Arizona’s top 30 prospects, according to BA, and he didn’t rank on MLB.com’s midseason list of the D’Backs’ top 20 prospects either. In parts of five minor league seasons, Cooper has a 3.27 ERA with a 217-to-98 K/BB ratio (seven of those free passes were intentional) in 236 2/3 innings.
There is caution in this trade story. Javy Baez continues to rack up strike outs. In 45 plate appearances, he has 17 Ks for a rate of 37.8 percent, which is too high for a major league player. The pressure to conform and adjust to major league pitching doomed Jackson's fate. He could not cut down on his strikeouts which torpedoed his value as a hitter. Baez is currently in the same audition mode as Jackson had in 2012.
March 15, 2014
YOU OLT TO KNOW
Mike Olt was once the most prized prospect in the Rangers organization.
But after an odd eye injury in winter ball, his stock faded dramatically. He was traded to the Cubs, and he had a miserable year in the minors. For three different teams, he hit only .201, with 15 HRs and 45 RBIs. His field percentage at third base was a lowly .919.
At age 25, he is no longer a young prospect. He has spent most of spring training at DH due to a new "shoulder" injury/issue. He has hit .333 with 3 HRs and 6 RBI in spring training, but those numbers as fans are well aware, can be deceiving because it is spring training and not actual major league games.
In 16 games with 40 plate appearances in 2012, Olt hit only .152 with 0 HR and 5 RBI for the Rangers.
People want to believe that Olt is a better solution to the Cubs third base woes than another season of Luis Valbuena or Donnie Murphy. Olt does have home run potential, but injuries and fielding issues are real concerns. The front office really wants Olt to win the third base job, because it would validate one of their recent trades.
But no matter what happens, Olt is probably still only a caretaker at third until Kris Bryant is ready.
But after an odd eye injury in winter ball, his stock faded dramatically. He was traded to the Cubs, and he had a miserable year in the minors. For three different teams, he hit only .201, with 15 HRs and 45 RBIs. His field percentage at third base was a lowly .919.
At age 25, he is no longer a young prospect. He has spent most of spring training at DH due to a new "shoulder" injury/issue. He has hit .333 with 3 HRs and 6 RBI in spring training, but those numbers as fans are well aware, can be deceiving because it is spring training and not actual major league games.
In 16 games with 40 plate appearances in 2012, Olt hit only .152 with 0 HR and 5 RBI for the Rangers.
People want to believe that Olt is a better solution to the Cubs third base woes than another season of Luis Valbuena or Donnie Murphy. Olt does have home run potential, but injuries and fielding issues are real concerns. The front office really wants Olt to win the third base job, because it would validate one of their recent trades.
But no matter what happens, Olt is probably still only a caretaker at third until Kris Bryant is ready.
August 24, 2013
CUBS GET PITCHER FOR GARZA
The Cubs acquired Ranger minor leaguer Neil Ramirez as the player to be named later in the Matt Garza trade.The Cubs had an option to select Ramirez or two other minor league pitchers as part of the deal. The Cubs chose Ramirez.
MLBTR reports that Ramirez, 24, was ranked as the 23rd best prospect in the Rangers' system heading into this season by Baseball America, but the publication had him as high as No. 5 at one point thanks to his strong 2011 minor league season. In 2012, his stock fell a bit as he dealt with shoulder fatigue and was demoted to Double-A to finish out the season. Ramirez was a starter during his time in the Texas system, but BA writes that the club saw his big league future in the bullpen as he had a tendency to overthink things when in the rotation.
The right-hander has spent all of 2013 with the Rangers' Double-A affiliate, posting a 3.84 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 21 starts. He'll stay at the Double-A level as he will report to the Cubs' affiliate in Tennessee.
If Ramirez stock as a prospect was beginning to fall (from a projected starter now to a projected bullpen arm), then one may question why the Cubs selected Ramirez over two lower prospects whom may have had a higher potential upside.
Ramirez has been in the minors for 6 years. He has reached AAA two times, in 2011 and 2012, but has fallen back to AA.In 6 season, his minor league career record is 36-35, 4.40 ERA, 1.308 WHIP in 126 starts.
MLBTR reports that Ramirez, 24, was ranked as the 23rd best prospect in the Rangers' system heading into this season by Baseball America, but the publication had him as high as No. 5 at one point thanks to his strong 2011 minor league season. In 2012, his stock fell a bit as he dealt with shoulder fatigue and was demoted to Double-A to finish out the season. Ramirez was a starter during his time in the Texas system, but BA writes that the club saw his big league future in the bullpen as he had a tendency to overthink things when in the rotation.
The right-hander has spent all of 2013 with the Rangers' Double-A affiliate, posting a 3.84 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 21 starts. He'll stay at the Double-A level as he will report to the Cubs' affiliate in Tennessee.
If Ramirez stock as a prospect was beginning to fall (from a projected starter now to a projected bullpen arm), then one may question why the Cubs selected Ramirez over two lower prospects whom may have had a higher potential upside.
Ramirez has been in the minors for 6 years. He has reached AAA two times, in 2011 and 2012, but has fallen back to AA.In 6 season, his minor league career record is 36-35, 4.40 ERA, 1.308 WHIP in 126 starts.
July 19, 2013
LAKE PROMOTION
Junior Lake is expected to be called up by the Cubs. He was one of the top prospects under the Hendry era.
Lake, 23, has been in the Cub system for seven years. His career minor league stats are:
619 GP, .271 BA, 47 HR, 260 RBI, 117 SB, .322 OBP.
He has a career fielding percentage of .926 which is well below average. He has played various positions including SS, 3B, 2B, 1B. This season he has played 3B then moved to the OF.
In Iowa this season, he has played 40 games. His stat line: .295 BA, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 14 SB, .341 OBP.
How Lake fits into the short term and long term plans of the Cubs is unclear. He has worked his way out of the infield and into the outfield because of his defense. The Cubs have collected a hoard of journeymen outfielders, most who are on the disabled list or pushing through minor injuries. Lake's experience as an infielder could make him a utility bench player if he has the poise for that role.
But this call up is probably his one show case. Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters, higher touted prospects, had their moment to shine last season. They failed and new management seems to written both of them off.
If Lake can play a decent outfield, get on base and steal bases then he may have an expanded role for the rest of the season. It depends on whether the Cubs will clean house and trade players like Nate Schierholtz, David DeJesus, Alfonso Soriano or even Darwin Barney.
Others have suggested that Lake's call-up may be a show case to add him in a deadline deal as a "major league ready" prospect to get higher ceiling players from other clubs. But at the same time, Lake appears to be the only "ready" AAA prospect who may be cheap and valuable for the Cubs in 2014.
Lake, 23, has been in the Cub system for seven years. His career minor league stats are:
619 GP, .271 BA, 47 HR, 260 RBI, 117 SB, .322 OBP.
He has a career fielding percentage of .926 which is well below average. He has played various positions including SS, 3B, 2B, 1B. This season he has played 3B then moved to the OF.
In Iowa this season, he has played 40 games. His stat line: .295 BA, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 14 SB, .341 OBP.
How Lake fits into the short term and long term plans of the Cubs is unclear. He has worked his way out of the infield and into the outfield because of his defense. The Cubs have collected a hoard of journeymen outfielders, most who are on the disabled list or pushing through minor injuries. Lake's experience as an infielder could make him a utility bench player if he has the poise for that role.
But this call up is probably his one show case. Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters, higher touted prospects, had their moment to shine last season. They failed and new management seems to written both of them off.
If Lake can play a decent outfield, get on base and steal bases then he may have an expanded role for the rest of the season. It depends on whether the Cubs will clean house and trade players like Nate Schierholtz, David DeJesus, Alfonso Soriano or even Darwin Barney.
Others have suggested that Lake's call-up may be a show case to add him in a deadline deal as a "major league ready" prospect to get higher ceiling players from other clubs. But at the same time, Lake appears to be the only "ready" AAA prospect who may be cheap and valuable for the Cubs in 2014.
June 11, 2013
THE CRYSTAL BALL
The Cubs web page ranks its top prospects. It does not include recent draft choices.
The top fifteen are:
Javier Baez ss
Albert Almora cf
Jorge Soler rf
Brett Jackson cf
Arodys Vizcaino sp
Dillon Maples, sp
Pierce Johnson sp
Christian Villanueva 3b
Junior Lake ss
Matt Szczur of
Dan Vogelbach 1b
Jae Hoon Ha of
Jelmer Candelario 3b
Josh Vitters 3b
Duane Underwood sp
We can assume that at least three of these prospects have fallen out of favor with the front office:
Jackson, continues to struggle with strikeouts;
Szczur, who does not have the offensive production to be a starting outfielder; and
Vitters, who just got by-passed by the Kris Bryant pick.
One prospect may be a perpetual injury. Vizcaino came to the Cubs in trade injured, and he has not recovered to the point of even a potential re-entry date to the majors. Maples has also had injury set backs in his development.
So one third of the top fifteen Cub prospects are suspect at this point in time.
But what is the "vision" for the team come 2015? The front office must picture in its own mind who would be on their roster then:
LF: Vogelbach, converted from first base because of his power potential
CF: Almora, #1 pick will quarterback the outfield
RF: Soler, a lot is riding on front office international signee to be the next Sosa
3B: Bryant, #1 pick will solidify the infield
SS: Baez, who may have the rare power numbers for a shortstop
2B: Lake, converted from shortstop to add offense to second base position
1B: Rizzo, projected long term solution at first base
C: Castillo, because he may grow into the position over the next two seasons
SP:
1. Samardzija, if you can re-sign him
2. T. Wood, because lefty starters are hard to find
3. P. Johnson, because it would be the end of minor league service
4. Rob Zastryzny, second round lefty pick
5. Tyler Skulina or Trey Masek, college players with something to prove if signed, and
6. Scott Frazier, if he can develop consistent control.
The last four pitchers came from this year's draft. If signed, they would be the fast track solution to shore up the rotation, which will probably be dismantled again this July.
If this is the goal, then the Cubs will justify not spending money on free agents or truly being competitive until 2016.
However, the expected turnover of 11 prospects into major league starters would be an anomaly for the Cubs. One could only expect two or three prospects in a system to make the starting role with the club.
What is also noted in this analysis is the absence of Starlin Castro. As this season progresses, Castro regresses. There is some rumbling that the Cubs could trade Castro because of the potential of a Baez or Lake at shortstop. It is also possible that Castro will become Soriano 2.0, and be moved to the outfield so to negate his infield defensive woes. But as a corner outfielder, Castro still does not project to be a 30 HR 100 RBI candidate. It will be interesting to see if the Cubs sour on Castro or stick with him to justify the $60 million contract they granted to him.
The top fifteen are:
Javier Baez ss
Albert Almora cf
Jorge Soler rf
Brett Jackson cf
Arodys Vizcaino sp
Dillon Maples, sp
Pierce Johnson sp
Christian Villanueva 3b
Junior Lake ss
Matt Szczur of
Dan Vogelbach 1b
Jae Hoon Ha of
Jelmer Candelario 3b
Josh Vitters 3b
Duane Underwood sp
We can assume that at least three of these prospects have fallen out of favor with the front office:
Jackson, continues to struggle with strikeouts;
Szczur, who does not have the offensive production to be a starting outfielder; and
Vitters, who just got by-passed by the Kris Bryant pick.
One prospect may be a perpetual injury. Vizcaino came to the Cubs in trade injured, and he has not recovered to the point of even a potential re-entry date to the majors. Maples has also had injury set backs in his development.
So one third of the top fifteen Cub prospects are suspect at this point in time.
But what is the "vision" for the team come 2015? The front office must picture in its own mind who would be on their roster then:
LF: Vogelbach, converted from first base because of his power potential
CF: Almora, #1 pick will quarterback the outfield
RF: Soler, a lot is riding on front office international signee to be the next Sosa
3B: Bryant, #1 pick will solidify the infield
SS: Baez, who may have the rare power numbers for a shortstop
2B: Lake, converted from shortstop to add offense to second base position
1B: Rizzo, projected long term solution at first base
C: Castillo, because he may grow into the position over the next two seasons
SP:
1. Samardzija, if you can re-sign him
2. T. Wood, because lefty starters are hard to find
3. P. Johnson, because it would be the end of minor league service
4. Rob Zastryzny, second round lefty pick
5. Tyler Skulina or Trey Masek, college players with something to prove if signed, and
6. Scott Frazier, if he can develop consistent control.
The last four pitchers came from this year's draft. If signed, they would be the fast track solution to shore up the rotation, which will probably be dismantled again this July.
If this is the goal, then the Cubs will justify not spending money on free agents or truly being competitive until 2016.
However, the expected turnover of 11 prospects into major league starters would be an anomaly for the Cubs. One could only expect two or three prospects in a system to make the starting role with the club.
What is also noted in this analysis is the absence of Starlin Castro. As this season progresses, Castro regresses. There is some rumbling that the Cubs could trade Castro because of the potential of a Baez or Lake at shortstop. It is also possible that Castro will become Soriano 2.0, and be moved to the outfield so to negate his infield defensive woes. But as a corner outfielder, Castro still does not project to be a 30 HR 100 RBI candidate. It will be interesting to see if the Cubs sour on Castro or stick with him to justify the $60 million contract they granted to him.
June 7, 2013
PITCHING
The Cubs continued with last year's blueprint of selecting a pitcher with their second pick. It also continues a trend of finding players with unpronounceable names. Many assume there will a another run on pitching to stock pile the system.
With the 41st pick, the Cubs selected Rob Zastryzny, a left handed pitcher from Missouri. MLB.com remarks that he has a good feel for the craft of pitching. His fastball typically sits in the upper-80s, but Zastryzny has the ability to add and subtract velocity as necessary. His fastball velocity typically ranges from 86 mph to 94 mph.However, some scouts were impressed with a 95 mph radar gun blast during the SEC tournament. Zastryzny uses his height – he's listed at 6-foot-3 – to create a downhill angle for his fastball, which has late action. Zastryzny also throws a changeup and slider. He commands his whole arsenal well and all three of his pitches have the chance to be at least Major League-average offerings.
With the move to the SEC, his record went down to 2-9 with increased league competition. The explanation was run support. Zastryzny put together a solid junior season in which he tallied a 3.38 ERA in 13 starts, but his Tiger offense averaged just 2.5 runs per game in his starts. He had 82 strikeouts in 90.2 innings as he moved his career total to 228, tying him for eighth all-time in Missouri history. He allowed just 34 earned runs with one complete game shutout, coming on Friday night at Georgia. He pitched three complete games on the season and walked just 24 batters in 90.2 innings.
If Zastryzny is the "crafty" lefty as his bio indicates, that may be a longer road to the majors than most hard throwing fastball pitchers like Strasberg, Gonzalez or recently Gausman. The Cubs do not have a lot of left handed starters in the minor leagues. I would expect the Cubs to sign Zastryzny easily and assign him to Class A.
With the 41st pick, the Cubs selected Rob Zastryzny, a left handed pitcher from Missouri. MLB.com remarks that he has a good feel for the craft of pitching. His fastball typically sits in the upper-80s, but Zastryzny has the ability to add and subtract velocity as necessary. His fastball velocity typically ranges from 86 mph to 94 mph.However, some scouts were impressed with a 95 mph radar gun blast during the SEC tournament. Zastryzny uses his height – he's listed at 6-foot-3 – to create a downhill angle for his fastball, which has late action. Zastryzny also throws a changeup and slider. He commands his whole arsenal well and all three of his pitches have the chance to be at least Major League-average offerings.
With the move to the SEC, his record went down to 2-9 with increased league competition. The explanation was run support. Zastryzny put together a solid junior season in which he tallied a 3.38 ERA in 13 starts, but his Tiger offense averaged just 2.5 runs per game in his starts. He had 82 strikeouts in 90.2 innings as he moved his career total to 228, tying him for eighth all-time in Missouri history. He allowed just 34 earned runs with one complete game shutout, coming on Friday night at Georgia. He pitched three complete games on the season and walked just 24 batters in 90.2 innings.
If Zastryzny is the "crafty" lefty as his bio indicates, that may be a longer road to the majors than most hard throwing fastball pitchers like Strasberg, Gonzalez or recently Gausman. The Cubs do not have a lot of left handed starters in the minor leagues. I would expect the Cubs to sign Zastryzny easily and assign him to Class A.
THE RIGHT PICK
It was mildly surprising that the Astros took pitcher Mark Appel as the number one pick. Appel was the consensus number one last season, but he wanted more than first position slot money to sign. So he slid down to the Pirates, who could not sign him. Before the draft, his agent Scott Boras was making noise about the leverage the senior still had if he slid down the board. Last year, Houston drafted a high school player below slot and used that extra money to overpay later picks who were perceived to have had signability issues (i.e. money demands). But the choice of Appel does make some marketing sense to the Astros, since Appel is from Houston. It is clear that the Astros had to have agreed on a bonus number with Appel before the pick was announced in order to save face.
That left the Cubs with a choice between college pitcher Jonathan Gray or power third baseman Kris Bryant. Many pundits thought the Cubs would pick Gray (even over Appel). Most pundits thought the Cubs would pick the best available pitcher. Gray's 2013 season stats were very good:
2013 Stats: GS: 16, W-L: 10-2, ERA: 1.59, IP: 119.0, ER: 21, BB: 22, K: 138, AVG: .188
But Bryant's offense numbers were far superior to anyone else in college baseball:
2013 Stats: G: 58, R: 78, H: 73, 2B: 13, HR: 31, RBI: 62, AVG: .340, OBP: .500, SLG: .860
The debate comes down to a philosophical and empirical question. How can you compare a top line pitching prospect to a top line hitting prospect. If you go backward to the basic element of the game itself, a top line pitcher is expected to pitch 210 innings per season, or be responsible for 630 outs. That is 14.4% of a team's total season out number. A top line batter is expected to drive in 100 runs per season. The world champion Giants scored 718 runs in 2012. That would equate to about 13.9% of total runs scored. In 2012, the Cubs only scored 613 runs. Adding a run producer would get the team closer to the Giants' run total.
So it comes down to a fairly even analysis. An top line pitcher is expected to get around 14% of the outs while a top line hitter is expected to generate approximately 14% of the total team runs.
Then there is debate on who is more valuable. A top line pitcher who averages 7 IP per quality start can keep a team's bullpen fresh, stop losing streaks and dominate short series. However, he only gets the ball 30-33 games per season. A starter fielder could be expected to play 150-160 games per year, or five times the amount of actual on field time as a starter.
There is a philosophical principle that some scouts have that pitching wins championships. It is said that good pitching will eliminate good hitting. On the other hand, in order to win a team needs to generate enough offense to score runs, even against good pitching.
The final review is that it is easier to project field position players than with pitchers. Position players have a larger body of work to look at; their fielding and batting mechanics are easily understood. Pitchers are harder to project because of the hidden wear and tear on their arm and shoulder mechanics. Pitchers are more suspect to injury during development.
In the end, I tend to fall on the side of picking a position player (especially one at an organizational need) over a projected "star" pitching candidate.
The Cubs were in the almost the same position during the Mark Prior selection. Prior was the "can't miss" kid, the "most major league ready" prospect in the draft. Prior was expected to be the No. 1 pick, but the Twins instead selected Joe Mauer. Prior "fell" to the Cubs. This year, it seems that vibe has been reversed in that the Cubs took a prized hitting prospect over a stud pitcher.
But the story is not over quite yet. Bryant was the best selection for the Cubs. Now the Cubs organization needs not to screw it up. Jason McLeod told the media that Bryant projects as a third baseman and that is the position he will play. That needs to remain true. A player's comfort and routine helps with the transition to professional ball. Too many teams are moving players from position to position early in their development, which in many ways hinders the player who does not know what the organization wants of him. If the Cubs sign Bryant quickly, they should assign him to Double A Tennessee for the rest of the summer to get his feet wet. They should not mess with his swing mechanics. They should let him continue to play ball like he has done at San Diego.
That left the Cubs with a choice between college pitcher Jonathan Gray or power third baseman Kris Bryant. Many pundits thought the Cubs would pick Gray (even over Appel). Most pundits thought the Cubs would pick the best available pitcher. Gray's 2013 season stats were very good:
2013 Stats: GS: 16, W-L: 10-2, ERA: 1.59, IP: 119.0, ER: 21, BB: 22, K: 138, AVG: .188
But Bryant's offense numbers were far superior to anyone else in college baseball:
2013 Stats: G: 58, R: 78, H: 73, 2B: 13, HR: 31, RBI: 62, AVG: .340, OBP: .500, SLG: .860
The debate comes down to a philosophical and empirical question. How can you compare a top line pitching prospect to a top line hitting prospect. If you go backward to the basic element of the game itself, a top line pitcher is expected to pitch 210 innings per season, or be responsible for 630 outs. That is 14.4% of a team's total season out number. A top line batter is expected to drive in 100 runs per season. The world champion Giants scored 718 runs in 2012. That would equate to about 13.9% of total runs scored. In 2012, the Cubs only scored 613 runs. Adding a run producer would get the team closer to the Giants' run total.
So it comes down to a fairly even analysis. An top line pitcher is expected to get around 14% of the outs while a top line hitter is expected to generate approximately 14% of the total team runs.
Then there is debate on who is more valuable. A top line pitcher who averages 7 IP per quality start can keep a team's bullpen fresh, stop losing streaks and dominate short series. However, he only gets the ball 30-33 games per season. A starter fielder could be expected to play 150-160 games per year, or five times the amount of actual on field time as a starter.
There is a philosophical principle that some scouts have that pitching wins championships. It is said that good pitching will eliminate good hitting. On the other hand, in order to win a team needs to generate enough offense to score runs, even against good pitching.
The final review is that it is easier to project field position players than with pitchers. Position players have a larger body of work to look at; their fielding and batting mechanics are easily understood. Pitchers are harder to project because of the hidden wear and tear on their arm and shoulder mechanics. Pitchers are more suspect to injury during development.
In the end, I tend to fall on the side of picking a position player (especially one at an organizational need) over a projected "star" pitching candidate.
The Cubs were in the almost the same position during the Mark Prior selection. Prior was the "can't miss" kid, the "most major league ready" prospect in the draft. Prior was expected to be the No. 1 pick, but the Twins instead selected Joe Mauer. Prior "fell" to the Cubs. This year, it seems that vibe has been reversed in that the Cubs took a prized hitting prospect over a stud pitcher.
But the story is not over quite yet. Bryant was the best selection for the Cubs. Now the Cubs organization needs not to screw it up. Jason McLeod told the media that Bryant projects as a third baseman and that is the position he will play. That needs to remain true. A player's comfort and routine helps with the transition to professional ball. Too many teams are moving players from position to position early in their development, which in many ways hinders the player who does not know what the organization wants of him. If the Cubs sign Bryant quickly, they should assign him to Double A Tennessee for the rest of the summer to get his feet wet. They should not mess with his swing mechanics. They should let him continue to play ball like he has done at San Diego.
April 16, 2013
THE SIX MILLION DOLLAR MAN
The first big international free agent signing by the new Cubs front office was a 20 year old Cuban left handed pitcher named Gerardo Concepcion. He was touted as a quality prospect. The Cubs signed him to a major league contract for $6 million.
Last season, Concepcion was assigned to Class A Peoria.
He pitched poorly. One scout from another organization said Concepcion did not know how to pitch. Another scout said that he did not understand why the Cubs paid so much for a marginal talent.
Concepcion stat line was:
2-6 record, 12 starts, 0 complete games, 52.1 IP, 6 HR allowed, 30 BB, 28 K, 1.911 WHIP
On December 21, 2012, the Cubs took Concepcion off the protected 40 man roster and outrighted him to Kane County (Class A).
However, the current Kane County roster does not have Concepcion as a player. There is no injury/transaction note on the Cubs web site. Concepcion is not listed on any Cub affiliate roster, including Arizona development league. He is not listed as one of the Cubs top 20 prospects.
Concepcion, the Cubs $6 million man, is missing in action. He is under contract with the Cubs, but he is not listed as injured or on a current roster. Did Concepcion and/or the Cubs give up?
Last season, Concepcion was assigned to Class A Peoria.
He pitched poorly. One scout from another organization said Concepcion did not know how to pitch. Another scout said that he did not understand why the Cubs paid so much for a marginal talent.
Concepcion stat line was:
2-6 record, 12 starts, 0 complete games, 52.1 IP, 6 HR allowed, 30 BB, 28 K, 1.911 WHIP
On December 21, 2012, the Cubs took Concepcion off the protected 40 man roster and outrighted him to Kane County (Class A).
However, the current Kane County roster does not have Concepcion as a player. There is no injury/transaction note on the Cubs web site. Concepcion is not listed on any Cub affiliate roster, including Arizona development league. He is not listed as one of the Cubs top 20 prospects.
Concepcion, the Cubs $6 million man, is missing in action. He is under contract with the Cubs, but he is not listed as injured or on a current roster. Did Concepcion and/or the Cubs give up?
June 26, 2012
THE FRANCHISE ARRIVES
Anthony Rizzo makes his Cubs debut tonight against the Mets. Rizzo, the centerpiece in an off-season trade to build the farm system under new management, is the latest "can't miss" prospect to wear the Cubs uniform (remember, Felix Pie and Corey Patterson). Some moderate observers wondered at the time of the trade whether if Rizzo was such a great prospect, did the Padres trade him away in order to get the Reds top first base prospect in the Latos deal?
Rizzo only had a short taste of the majors in San Diego. He did not do well. The expectation balloon burst on that short trip to the Bigs. In 49 games, he hit only .141, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .281 OBP.
But Rizzo has nothing more to prove in the minors.
At Iowa, his numbers were giant: .342 BA, .405 OBP, 23 HR, 62 RBI in 70 games.
In his 6 minor league seasons (445 GP), he has a career .303 BA, 87 HR, 343 RBI, 23 SB, .372 OBP and fielding percentage of .989.
In an unscientific newspaper poll, the expectations for Rizzo's major league career broke down as follows:
43% believed he would have an All-Star type career
42% believed he would be a decent major league ball players
8% believed that he would have a Hall of Fame career
7% thought he would be a bust.
Optimists project that Rizzo in a full major league season could hit .297 24 HR, 97 RBI 6 SB.
That would be a very good offensive player. But if he cannot adjust to major league pitching like in his San Diego experience, realistic projections would be tempered by 15 to 50 percent.
With the Cubs on a record pace for losses in a season, the idea of promoting Rizzo to be The Franchise, the cornerstone of the Epstein team of the future is a huge burden to place on a 22 year old. His presence in the line up is not going to lift the team into competing for the NL Central title this year. All it does is give season ticket holders "hope" for the future and a reason to show up at Wrigley and spend money to fill Ricketts coffers.
Rizzo only had a short taste of the majors in San Diego. He did not do well. The expectation balloon burst on that short trip to the Bigs. In 49 games, he hit only .141, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .281 OBP.
But Rizzo has nothing more to prove in the minors.
At Iowa, his numbers were giant: .342 BA, .405 OBP, 23 HR, 62 RBI in 70 games.
In his 6 minor league seasons (445 GP), he has a career .303 BA, 87 HR, 343 RBI, 23 SB, .372 OBP and fielding percentage of .989.
In an unscientific newspaper poll, the expectations for Rizzo's major league career broke down as follows:
43% believed he would have an All-Star type career
42% believed he would be a decent major league ball players
8% believed that he would have a Hall of Fame career
7% thought he would be a bust.
Optimists project that Rizzo in a full major league season could hit .297 24 HR, 97 RBI 6 SB.
That would be a very good offensive player. But if he cannot adjust to major league pitching like in his San Diego experience, realistic projections would be tempered by 15 to 50 percent.
With the Cubs on a record pace for losses in a season, the idea of promoting Rizzo to be The Franchise, the cornerstone of the Epstein team of the future is a huge burden to place on a 22 year old. His presence in the line up is not going to lift the team into competing for the NL Central title this year. All it does is give season ticket holders "hope" for the future and a reason to show up at Wrigley and spend money to fill Ricketts coffers.
June 12, 2012
SUNSHINE ON SOLER
The Cubs won the bidding for Cuban defector Jorge Soler.
This is a pure "scouting" pick as it has been impossible to determine what sort of "real" stats Soler has on his resume. As a Cuban junior national player in 2010, he defected in 2011 and has been in baseball limbo until MLB determined that he could sign with a major league team.
At 6'3", 200 pounds, scouting reports think he will grow into a major league power hitting right fielder. Some scouts use the dreaded "five tool player" label (Cub fans for decades have been promised five tool phenoms like Felix Pie and Corey Patterson). Since most commentators have not seen any live action or tape on Soler, it is hard to tell whether this is more a "reputation" signing or a shot in the dark.
In the new economies of baseball, there is a hard International salary-bonus cap that kicks in on July 1, 2012. Teams can no longer spend freely on international players. Teams are only allowed to spend a total of $2.9 million per year on international players. This artificial cap is designed proponents say to keep the leagues in competitive balance. In other words, save owners from burning through their own money recklessly. Soler was allegedly the last free agent "prize" before the new cap hits.
Several reports state that Soler signed a 9 year, $30 million deal with the Cubs. It would be the longest contract in Cub history (Soriano's was 8 years, $136 million). Keith Law of ESPN writes that his sources tell him that Soler has a right to "opt out" of the deal during his arbitration years (i.e. make more money if he is performing well). If that is true, why guarantee Soler a $30 million pay day if he will go to arbitration anyway? This averages to a $3.3 million per year deal. That is veteran, proven outfielder money.
Is the contract front loaded (agent preferred) or back loaded (team preferred)? But the $30 million figure is at least 33% more than most teams estimated Soler would sign for; three other teams alleged bid in the low $20 million range. Is Soler that much better than the other Cuban defector, pitcher Concepcion, the Cubs signed for $7 million? Only time will tell.
Most likely, Soler will sign a major league contract (which means he must be placed on the 40 man roster). As such, his minor league minimum salary is at least $50,000 (and bumps to contract amount if he is on the major league team). Fast tracking him in two years to start in 2014 might to hard; if he is to play three seasons in the minors, the last six years of the deal cover the Cubs through his arbitration years. As a base line, three years in the minors will cost $150,000 and major league minimum in 2014 estimated to be $500,000 for three seasons; then arbitration raises stair step up to one's peers. The normal first 6 years for player development and early service time is $650,000. The Cubs have pegged Soler's cost at $20 million.
The Cubs blueprint appears to change the Tribune free agent bandage spending sprees, to spend most money on developing home grown talent (the Rays, Twins and Marlins model). In 2013, several big contracts come off the books (Zambrano $18 million, Dempster $14 million). The team payroll projects to under $100 million. In drafting 22 pitchers in their 42 draft selections, the organization is hoping for more than 2 will pan out quickly and be part of the staff in 2014.
Here is how Epstein sees his club in 2014:
Sczcur LF B. Jackson CF Soler RF
Vitters 3B Castro SS Cardenas 2B Rizzo 1B
Clevenger C
By implication, Soriano, Stewart, LaHair, Barney and DeJesus are merely caretaker place holders until the rebuilding pieces are ready to occupy Wrigley.
And Soler is the most expensive piece of the Epstein puzzle.
This is a pure "scouting" pick as it has been impossible to determine what sort of "real" stats Soler has on his resume. As a Cuban junior national player in 2010, he defected in 2011 and has been in baseball limbo until MLB determined that he could sign with a major league team.
At 6'3", 200 pounds, scouting reports think he will grow into a major league power hitting right fielder. Some scouts use the dreaded "five tool player" label (Cub fans for decades have been promised five tool phenoms like Felix Pie and Corey Patterson). Since most commentators have not seen any live action or tape on Soler, it is hard to tell whether this is more a "reputation" signing or a shot in the dark.
In the new economies of baseball, there is a hard International salary-bonus cap that kicks in on July 1, 2012. Teams can no longer spend freely on international players. Teams are only allowed to spend a total of $2.9 million per year on international players. This artificial cap is designed proponents say to keep the leagues in competitive balance. In other words, save owners from burning through their own money recklessly. Soler was allegedly the last free agent "prize" before the new cap hits.
Several reports state that Soler signed a 9 year, $30 million deal with the Cubs. It would be the longest contract in Cub history (Soriano's was 8 years, $136 million). Keith Law of ESPN writes that his sources tell him that Soler has a right to "opt out" of the deal during his arbitration years (i.e. make more money if he is performing well). If that is true, why guarantee Soler a $30 million pay day if he will go to arbitration anyway? This averages to a $3.3 million per year deal. That is veteran, proven outfielder money.
Is the contract front loaded (agent preferred) or back loaded (team preferred)? But the $30 million figure is at least 33% more than most teams estimated Soler would sign for; three other teams alleged bid in the low $20 million range. Is Soler that much better than the other Cuban defector, pitcher Concepcion, the Cubs signed for $7 million? Only time will tell.
Most likely, Soler will sign a major league contract (which means he must be placed on the 40 man roster). As such, his minor league minimum salary is at least $50,000 (and bumps to contract amount if he is on the major league team). Fast tracking him in two years to start in 2014 might to hard; if he is to play three seasons in the minors, the last six years of the deal cover the Cubs through his arbitration years. As a base line, three years in the minors will cost $150,000 and major league minimum in 2014 estimated to be $500,000 for three seasons; then arbitration raises stair step up to one's peers. The normal first 6 years for player development and early service time is $650,000. The Cubs have pegged Soler's cost at $20 million.
The Cubs blueprint appears to change the Tribune free agent bandage spending sprees, to spend most money on developing home grown talent (the Rays, Twins and Marlins model). In 2013, several big contracts come off the books (Zambrano $18 million, Dempster $14 million). The team payroll projects to under $100 million. In drafting 22 pitchers in their 42 draft selections, the organization is hoping for more than 2 will pan out quickly and be part of the staff in 2014.
Here is how Epstein sees his club in 2014:
Sczcur LF B. Jackson CF Soler RF
Vitters 3B Castro SS Cardenas 2B Rizzo 1B
Clevenger C
By implication, Soriano, Stewart, LaHair, Barney and DeJesus are merely caretaker place holders until the rebuilding pieces are ready to occupy Wrigley.
And Soler is the most expensive piece of the Epstein puzzle.
March 16, 2012
MORE THEO COMP
ESPN reports that the Cubs have sent minor-league pitcher Aaron Kurcz to the Red Sox as the player to be named later in order complete their obligations in the Theo Epstein compensation situation.
All that remains is for the Red Sox to send a player to be named later to the Cubs.
Kurcz, a 10th-round draft pick in 2010, was a midseason Florida State League All-Star last season at Class A Dayton. He finished the season 5-4 with a 3.28 ERA, making a start in 12 of his 32 appearances. He pitched 82 1/3 innings with 91 strikeouts and 34 walks. Kurcz, 21, started off rookie ball as an impressive closer and quickly worked up to A+ Daytona last season. So it appears the Red Sox have been cherry picking potential closers from the Cubs system.
In two minor league seasons, his record is 7-5, 2.95 ERA, 9 saves, 1.158 WHIP, 9.9 K/9IP and 3.09 K/BB ratio.
February 27, 2012
GARZA TRADE REVISITED
Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune laments on the anniversary of the big Matt Garza Cubs deal with the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Cubs sent five prospects to the Rays, for starting pitcher Matt Garza.
Outfielders Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer and catcher Robinson Chirinos all made it onto the Rays 2011 roster during the season. Shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and right-hander Chris Archer are listed as Top 100 prospects in all of baseball.
Garza won 10 games for the Cubs last season. He will make $9.5 million in 2012, and most likely more in 2013, his final year of arbitration before free agency.
Rogers reports that the Rays are extremely happy with the deal.
The Cubs sent five prospects to the Rays, for starting pitcher Matt Garza.
Outfielders Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer and catcher Robinson Chirinos all made it onto the Rays 2011 roster during the season. Shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and right-hander Chris Archer are listed as Top 100 prospects in all of baseball.
Garza won 10 games for the Cubs last season. He will make $9.5 million in 2012, and most likely more in 2013, his final year of arbitration before free agency.
Rogers reports that the Rays are extremely happy with the deal.
"I don't think any of those guys have done things we didn't expect them to," Rays general manager Andrew Friedman said. "It's not like any of them had a year where they just blew the doors down. They're all good players, they play the game fundamentally well and that fits with our organization. They're part of the depth that we believe in, and that's why we made that trade."
The question is asked whether the Cubs should have made that trade. Fans are about 50-50.
Former GM Hendry made the deal because he was under the false belief that the Cubs were just one pitcher away from winning the NL Central and returning to the post season.
Five prospects for Garza may be hard to swallow when Epstein is trying to re-stock the barren minor league inventory.
Garza went 10-10, 3.32 ERA in 31 starts. He had a good WHIP of 1.258 and a K/BB ratio of 3.13.
But on a poor Cub team, he was not a difference maker.
Top line starters are hard to find. Durable front line starters are even harder to find. Garza fits that mold, so far. So from a evaluation perspective, one has to give up a lot in a trade to receive a lot in return.
And the Cubs thought they were dealing from surplus: Lee was going to be blocked by Castro; Chirinos was being blocked by Soto, Castillo and Clevenger; Fuld was not in their long term outfield bench plans; and Guyer could be blocked in the future by Brett Jackson. But what has happened is that the Cubs have a diluted major league bench because these prospects are no longer in the pipeline.
So a possible idea is to flip Garza this season for a package of prospects. It will be more difficult because last year was the ideal time to make a Garza for prospects deal. Garza has a hefty salary and is only under 2 years control to a new team. Unless you are a Boston, or Yankees who will commit $75 million for an extension, the market for Garza is limited.
February 25, 2012
REBUILDING
As spring training opens, owner Tom Ricketts and manager Dale Sveum proclaim that the Cubs are not "rebuilding" and that the team "as assembled" is ready to compete for the playoffs.
Yes, they are both delusional.
Ricketts is a clueless owner who now, after three seasons and massive second half no-shows, must realize he needs to sell tickets. Lots of tickets. And get fannies in the seats to make money. Money that he has already spent on new real estate and a Fenway Junior wall in right field. He has decreed no one in the organization shall use the term "rebuilding."
Sveum said when he was hired, the team would not be "rebuilding" but "building." It is all just double speak at this point.
Every new acquisition, except for Maholm and T. Wood, would not be a starter on their old club. So, technically the Cubs may be "collecting the trash" instead of rebuilding at this point.
Examples:
New 3B Stewart would not be starting in Denver. He played more in the minors last season than the majors. He is not a foundation piece of the future; he is a stop gap replacement for the departure of Ramirez.
New 2B Cardenas was waived (cut) by the A's, but he has a chance to unseat Barney at second.
New 1B LaHair is 29 and a career minor league player. He is no longer a prospect, but a prospector panning for some personal reward for his last shot at playing time.
By all accounts, the Cubs are viewed as a 70 win team for 2012. That is not competitive. That is fighting off the Astros for last place in the NL Central. And if management cannot see the truth in that statement, then it will be an extremely long time before the Cubs fortunes turn around.
Yes, they are both delusional.
Ricketts is a clueless owner who now, after three seasons and massive second half no-shows, must realize he needs to sell tickets. Lots of tickets. And get fannies in the seats to make money. Money that he has already spent on new real estate and a Fenway Junior wall in right field. He has decreed no one in the organization shall use the term "rebuilding."
Sveum said when he was hired, the team would not be "rebuilding" but "building." It is all just double speak at this point.
Every new acquisition, except for Maholm and T. Wood, would not be a starter on their old club. So, technically the Cubs may be "collecting the trash" instead of rebuilding at this point.
Examples:
New 3B Stewart would not be starting in Denver. He played more in the minors last season than the majors. He is not a foundation piece of the future; he is a stop gap replacement for the departure of Ramirez.
New 2B Cardenas was waived (cut) by the A's, but he has a chance to unseat Barney at second.
New 1B LaHair is 29 and a career minor league player. He is no longer a prospect, but a prospector panning for some personal reward for his last shot at playing time.
By all accounts, the Cubs are viewed as a 70 win team for 2012. That is not competitive. That is fighting off the Astros for last place in the NL Central. And if management cannot see the truth in that statement, then it will be an extremely long time before the Cubs fortunes turn around.
February 22, 2012
READY PROSPECTS
There are numerous publications out listing the best baseball prospects and the best team prospects. It is a matter of scouting reports, statistical analysis, and subjective opinion when those lists are created. It takes years before a prospect is signed until a general manager knows whether the player can contribute at the major league level or is a bust. Just based on the limited number of roster spots on a major league team, the odds are against most minor leaguers getting to the majors. The failure rate is more than 75 percent.
But some prospects are more ready than others to take the final examination. When teams look at their organizational charts, they may have an immediate, short term and long term view of player development. Fans look toward what are you doing for the team now. From that perspective, one can glean how the Cubs view their own talent pool to determine "ready prospects," those players not with a full year in the majors (who would be rookies this season) who are on the protected 40 man roster and those players at AAA Iowa, one step from being promoted to the Cubs. Here is the list of the most ready talent in the Cub system:
But some prospects are more ready than others to take the final examination. When teams look at their organizational charts, they may have an immediate, short term and long term view of player development. Fans look toward what are you doing for the team now. From that perspective, one can glean how the Cubs view their own talent pool to determine "ready prospects," those players not with a full year in the majors (who would be rookies this season) who are on the protected 40 man roster and those players at AAA Iowa, one step from being promoted to the Cubs. Here is the list of the most ready talent in the Cub system:
Ready Prospects Cubs (* lhp)
40 Man Roster
Beliveau p *
Cabrera A, p
Castillo, L, p
Dolis, p
Gaub, p *
Maine, p *
Mateo, p
Weathers, p
Castillo, W, c
Clevenger, c
Cardenas, in
LaHair, 1b
Lake, ss
Rizzo, 1b
Vitters, 3b
Campana, of
Sappelt, of
Szczur, of
Iowa Cubs (AAA)
Berg, p
Caridad, p
Jackson, J., p
Parker, p
Rusin, p *
Schlitter, p
Smit, p
Struck, p
Smith, M., 3b
Jackson, B, of
Spencer, of
February 11, 2012
YEARS AWAY
Two recent lists of Top Cubs prospects are out: one from MLB.com and one from ESPN's Keith Law. Many of the players are so young or recently signed not to have much press or detailed scouting reports. But the lists do show that the Cubs are still a long way away from having deep prospect talent.
MLB.com
1. Anthony Rizzo, 1B (Epstein's big trade)
2. Brett Jackson, OF (Hendry's last best pick)
3. Javier Baez, SS (young, raw)
4. Matt Szczur, OF (got a Smardzilla guaranteed contract from Hendry to forgo football)
5. Chris Carpenter, RP (Cashner light)
6. Dillon Maples, SP (the late rounder Hendry paid 1st round money on last year)
7. Trey McNutt, SP (he had to stay so Archer went in the Garza deal)
8. Rafael Dolis, RP (been hanging around a long time with little ML experience)
9. Robert Whitenack, SP (eh?)
10. Reggie Golden, OF (on top list for a while but seems not to be promoted up)
11. Junior Lake, SS (potential rising star)
12. Josh Vitters, 3B (perennial bust candidate)
13. Ronald Torreyes, 2B (maybe the key in the Marshall deal)
14. Ben Wells, SP (eh?)
15. Dan Vogelbach, 1B (the large high school kid the Cubs overpaid for in the draft)
16. Jeimer Candelario, 3B (don't know, another new Hoyer international signee???)
17. Gioskar Amaya, IF (don't know, another new Hoyer international signee???)
18. Marco Hernandez, SS (don't know, another new Hoyer international signee???)
19. Dave Sappelt, OF (the toss in in the Marshall deal; another Campana)
20. Pin-Chieh Chen, OF (don't know, another new Hoyer international signee???)
Law:
1. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
2. Brett Jackson, OF
3. Javier Baez, SS
4. Trey McNutt, RHP
5. Zach Cates, RHP
6. Wellington Castillo, C
7. Dillon Maples, RHP
8. Josh Vitters, 3B
9. Reggie Golden, OF
10. Matt Szczur, CF
The Cubs had three prospects in Law’s top 100, – outfielder Brett Jackson, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, and shortstop Javier Baez. Rizzo, who comes in at 36. Jackson, who is roundly considered a top 40 prospect by other lists, is ranked 89th by Law. Baez, usually in the top 50, is 95th.
So what do the authors agree on?
Rizzo is the best Cubs prospect. He is about 1/2 year away from the big leagues, or longer if LaHair does not struggle. Brett Jackson is the second best prospect, and he is ready to play but is blocked by Byrd in centerfield. Baez is a raw shortstop with upside potential, but Castro is the Cubs shortstop for the long term (unless they switch him to third). McNutt is the best pitching prospect, but did not have a great 2011. Maples is the second best pitching prospect, just signed out of college. Will he be fast tracked? Szczur is an overpaid outfielder who is also being blocked by Soriano and DeJesus so it less certain whether he will wallow in the minors for years to come. Golden is a young Class A prospect like former Cub Corey Patterson who may slowly work his way up the ladder to the majors some day. Vitters is the 8th best prospect, but his stock is fading as each year passes.
When the talk from Wrigley is that the turnaround of the organization will be completed by 2013 (with this year being the team's Lost Season), outsiders view the minor league system as being very weak. Even if Epstein-Hoyer-McLeod have an excellent draft in June, those players will be three years away from the majors . . . so the turn around ETA is more like 2015.
January 3, 2012
JAI MILLER ON THE MOVE
MLBTR reports that the Baltimore Orioles acquired outfielder Jai Miller from the Athletics for cash considerations. Orioles executive Dan Duquette said in a press release, "Jai Miller has the power, speed, base stealing skills and good athletic ability to be an asset in our outfield as he competes for a spot on our ballclub this spring." The San Francisco Chronicle reports that Orioles paid only $45,000.
Miller, 26, hit .276/.368/.588 with 32 home runs, 88 RBI and 16 SB in AAA in 2011. He spent most of his time in center and right field.
We highlighted Jai Miller as a cheap, risk free option for the Cubs in this blog's first post. At the time, the A's had put the AAA OF on waivers hoping to reclaim him, which they did. Now, with later roster move considerations, the A's trade Miller to the O's for cash. So, in essence, the Cubs had two inexpensive ways to bolster their roster with a power hitter, but passed.
With the Cubs devoid of power hitters on the roster, and reserve outfielders of only Reed Johnson and Dave Sappelt, Miller would have been at least a spring training option to be a fourth outfielder and insurance if David DeJesus' performance downfall in 2011 was not an anomaly but a serious trend.
Miller, 26, hit .276/.368/.588 with 32 home runs, 88 RBI and 16 SB in AAA in 2011. He spent most of his time in center and right field.
We highlighted Jai Miller as a cheap, risk free option for the Cubs in this blog's first post. At the time, the A's had put the AAA OF on waivers hoping to reclaim him, which they did. Now, with later roster move considerations, the A's trade Miller to the O's for cash. So, in essence, the Cubs had two inexpensive ways to bolster their roster with a power hitter, but passed.
With the Cubs devoid of power hitters on the roster, and reserve outfielders of only Reed Johnson and Dave Sappelt, Miller would have been at least a spring training option to be a fourth outfielder and insurance if David DeJesus' performance downfall in 2011 was not an anomaly but a serious trend.
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