September 19, 2013

FIRST GLANCE

At first glance, this is your Cubs 2014 roster:

LF: Lake

CF: Sweeney

RF: Schierholtz

3B: Murphy

SS: Castro

2B: Barney

1B: Rizzo

C: Castillo

SP 1: Samardzija
SP 2: T. Wood
SP 3:E. Jackson
SP 4: Rusin
SP 5: Arrieta

Bullpen: Grimm, Villaneuva, Russell, Rosscup, Bard, Strop, Fujikawa
Bench Boscan (C), Valbuena (INF),  Nelson (1B), Bogusevic (OF), Wright (OF)


This roster presupposes that the Cubs will not make any significant off season moves. The only possibility is that the Cubs sign a rehabbing starting pitcher to flip at the trade deadline. There will be no great move or urgency to sign free agents such as Choo or Ellsbury or Cano. The time line for the Cubs own prospects continue to move away from the present towards 2016. The Cubs can still field a AAAA ball club for another season under the "transparency" that the minor league system is moving prospects up toward Class AA.


Brad Nelson and Ty Wright were the only players in Iowa that had an average season. Nelson had 20 HR, 71 RBI. He would take a bench warmer spot for Watkins. Wright takes the 5th outfielder slot from Sappelt. These are interchangeable hoses on a broken engine. There are no other spare replacement parts for field positions in Iowa.


Can Lake maintain .300 hitter status for a full season? Unlikely. Can Sweeney stay healthy for an entire season as a starting center fielder? Unlikely. Can Schierholtz become an every day RF without any production drop? Doubtful. Can Murphy maintain his surprising power numbers as a full time infielder? Doubtful. Will Rizzo and Castro rebound from disappointing seasons? Possibly. Will Castillo have a breakout season at catcher?  Maybe, maybe not.


2014 looks like another holding pattern for the Cubs based upon the projected roster. No September call ups have really shown breakout potential. So the team will lurch along for another season of lessening expectations.