Even the most die hard Cub fans are only willing to give the team one more year to turn things around. Ticket sales have plummeted since August. No shows are dramatically increased in September. The concept of a minor league tear down to bring in a pipeline is a fine concept, but now people begin to realize that it is not a guaranteed process. If it was, every team would have done it. There would be no free agent market. Every team would be equal, on par, in talent. People are realizing how much a crap shoot it is in finding major league talent, especially the performance gap from Class A ball to even Class AA ball.
A recent example is Brett Jackson. He was the next five tool superstar in the Cubs system. He had power, average, speed and defense. He was projected to be the center fielder for the future. He got his chance last season in a late year call up. And he fell flat on his face. He was a strike out king. He looked overwhelmed at the plate. His major league line: in 44 games, .175 BA, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB, .303 OBP. In 2013, he fell a part in the minors. He was demoted from Iowa to Tennessee (AA) after an injury. His total minor league stat line: 95 games played, .210 BA, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 9 SB, .296 OBP.
At age 25, Jackson is a broken player. He is no longer a prospect but just a minor league player.
So when the heralded prospects crash and burn, fans should not be surprised by those events. But now, the fans has started a doomsday clock on the Cubs. Be competitive in a year or it will be extremely difficult to retain our loyalty.
It could be a Waterloo watershed moment in 2015. Most experts believe the Cubs will not be ready to compete by then, especially when they have taken the tack of keeping all their best prospects in Class A ball. Fans expect Baez, Bryant, Almora to be starting right away - - - but that is not the new Cubs way. Delay. Develop. Sell hope. Believe in the process.
But then again, the Cubs may not care too much about the loss in attendance. The focus has been on bringing in new revenue sources which are not dependent on how well the team actually plays on the field: new scoreboard with advertising, new advertising signage inside and outside the ball park, commercial and retail real estate development outside the ball park, more corporate events and concerts inside Wrigley, and more bars and restaurants open to the public year round inside Wrigley. And the prize in their eyes is the new broadcast contract revenue which should see a quick bump up next season, toward the goal of a Dodger like cable network billion dollar bonanza.
You still need fans to generate ratings which sets the price for advertising. But you don't need paying ball park fans to generate ratings on television. You can still market nice guys that finish last like Darwin Barney in a soap opera way. You can pare back the payroll to $50 million which is still a cheap entertainment budget for 162 episodes of content. It is all about number crunching.
The Cubs front office is a big believer in Numbers. They must realize that the power in numbers of prospects will enhance the chance that one or more will become impact players. Of all prospects signed to pro contracts, only 3 to 7 percent ever become major league players. Approximately half never make it to Class A, another half drop at Class A, another half at Class AAA, and you have the old AAAA talent pool, and the small percentage that become one of the 750 major league roster regulars. With approximately 3,750 minor league players a season, and a development cycle of five seasons, the major league opening day rosters at most only take in four percent of the five year development talent pool.
So within the numbers of the Class A prospects, only 4 or 5 players have a statistical chance of making it to the majors. Even if it is the usual suspects, Bryant, Almora, Vogelbach, Soler, that leaves 21 other roster spots to fill by the time they make the opening day roster. That means 84 percent of the roster needs to be filled by a source other than one's internal minor league system. Is the Cubs AAA roster going to fill 4 spots in the meantime? Highly doubtful. Will the Cubs AA roster going to fill 4 spots in the meantime? Baez has the best chance, then maybe OF Rubi Silva, SS Arismendy Alcantara, and possibly pitchers Kyle Hendricks or Eric Jokisch. So, the Numbers would say at best, the Cubs could have 9 home grown prospects on the team. That means 64 percent of the roster needs to be filled by sources other than the Cub's farm system.
The Cubs are about to close the window on the second year of the five year development time line. For every small surprise like Junior Lake or Chris Rusin pitching well enough to be considered maybe a 5th starter next season, we have regressions by Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo, the "core" players of this rebuilding plan. If one looks objectively at the Cubs current roster, there is not one position that does not need to be upgraded by either new personnel or better player performance.
Theo Epstein's contract ends in October, 2016. Fans inferred that the man who lifted the curse of the Bambino would celebrate a contract extension with a World Series title. But Epstein took over a Boston club that was on the cusp of winning; as of the present, the Cubs are no where near a .500 ball club. Epstein has never built an organization from the ground up. Ricketts has confidence in Epstein's vision. But the narrow sightedness of just rebuilding one way may be the team's ultimate downfall.
Fans have given the team plenty of time to make over the team. But fans have grown weary about adding prospects by subtracting wins at the major league level. In the past two seasons, the Cubs have traded away two quality starting pitching staffs in a business where starting pitching is hard to come by. The culture of losing has not changed because the Cubs are mired in historic back to back losing seasons. And the major league product on the field is becoming unwatchable. All signs point to a Cub apocalypse.
