September 2, 2013

TALENT POOLS

There is a limited number of sources for a baseball team to acquire talent.
At the lowest tier, a front office has several places to sign talent. In the U.S., there are college and high school players subject to the June draft. The most a team could sign is approximately 40 players. The next group are foreign players. The amateur players are now subject to CBA bonus pool restrictions. Most teams sign between 1 to 5 foreign youngsters (ages 16 to 18). The other is foreign professional players. Depending on the type and quality of league (Japanese, Cuban, Mexican, etc.), those talents are equivalent to middle minor league talent. After a certain amount of years of service, minor leaguers who have not been promoted can become minor league free agents. By that time, in their mid to late 20s, they are no longer considered prospects. The most talented still may find work in the high minors as insurance against injury at the major league level. The last area (which has suddenly become a feeding ground for aggressive GMs who want to improve their systems) is the waiver wire/designated for assignment pro player pools. At times, DFA's players do not get claimed and become free agents. Typically, these players have some major league experience and could be an upgrade for bad teams. However, they usually have very little upset potential.

At the next level, ball clubs have their development affiliate minor league clubs. At this point, talent is assigned to various skill levels with the hope that training, experience and pro coaching will increase the probability of success. As a general rule, 2/3 of rookie ball players will get promoted to Class A. More than half of Class A players will get promoted to Class AA where competition level increases several fold. Probably a third of Class AA players get promoted to Class AAA. Depending on various factors, including age, offensive stats, defensive prowess, and the major league club current needs, Class AAA players find themselves "blocked" at this level until an opportunity arises. On average, probably less than a third of AAA players will get any meaningful major league service time in their careers.

The next resource level is obtaining talent from other major league clubs. Major league talent coming from trades is more reliable indicator of future performance than minor league players. That is why it typically costs a team more "assets" (in cash, prospects, or other players) to obtain a quality a major league player. The other source of major league talent is the free agent pool. The top third of the annual FA pool demand top dollar, long term contracts which some teams cannot afford.

So how do successful organizations use these talent pools to their advantage?

Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos is an aggressive general manager who does not like to stand pat. He is constantly looking to improve his major league team. Last off season he orchestrated the 12 player blockbuster deal with the Marlins. MLB only approved the deal because the Marlins received viable prospects in exchange.  Anthopoulos has been active in the foreign player market. He can market Toronto as an international city.

He starts with a three year plan to build a contender around a present nucleus of major league players. He adds to the core team by not trading away one of the Blue Jay’s top players. He does not rely on any single talent pool in order to build his major league roster. It is not out of his realm to make minor league trades. When he realized that his upper minor league system was weak, he aggressively worked the waiver wire claiming players from other clubs, then sending them back through to clear so they could be optioned to AAA. If a claimed player made the organizational flow chart, he could also be quickly dispatched if a better player was claimed off waivers a day, a week or month later. In other words, Anthopoulos takes a balanced approach to acquiring talent for the Blue Jays. He is not reliant on one aspect of player development. His focus is the current major league roster and how he can make it better this season and next year. He is not afraid to trade away top prospects for proven major league talent. He is not afraid to sign troubled free agents like Melky Cabrera if that can upgrade his team.

This is what he did just last off season:

There was a record amount of player movement for the Jays while retaining the great talent already on the major league roster.

Key players lost in free agency: Jason Frasor (to Texas Rangers), Kelly Johnson (to Tampa Bay Rays), Brandon Lyon (to New York Mets), and Carlos Villanueva (to Chicago Cubs).

Players traded to Marlins: Henderson Álvarez, Anthony Desclafani, Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick, Jeff Mathis, and Justin Nicolino.

Players traded to Mets: Wuilmer Becrra, John Buck, Travis D'Arnaud, and Noah Syndergaard.

Key players brought in through free agency: Melky Cabrera (formerly with San Francisco Giants), Maicer Izturis (formerly with LA Angels).

Players brought in from Marlins: Emilio Bonifacio, John Buck (traded to Mets), Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and José Reyes.

Players brought in from Mets: R.A. Dickey, Mike Nickeas, and Josh Thole.

Despite the moves, MLB.com stated during spring training that even though "the Jays traded many of the most promising prospects in deals with the Marlins and Mets, but they still have an adequate farm system filled with talent."

To summarize, Anthopoulos uses all aspects of the lower tier talent pools to upgrade his organizational depth. He is not afraid to aggressively promote talent or trade prospects for proven major league talent. He is creative enough to swing complicated three team deals. He scours the waiver wire to supplement his rosters. Then, when he believes there is a chance to have a playoff run, he pulls off a blockbuster trade. Even though some of his moves did not work out, Toronto fans are not up in arms because their GM is using all the tools at his disposal in order to try to make a championship caliber team.