Since the Cubs have been so bad for so long, fans have started to take a greater interest in the Cubs minor league system. They have been told that the Cubs are rebuilding from the ground up - - - exclusively with repopulating the minors with top notch prospects.
This has given some Cub fans some comfort. They can follow new young players during their development years. They can see flashes of power that they can project to the bleachers at Wrigley one day.
But now, those same fans are beginning to realize that prospects are mere potential. There is no guarantee that any highly touted prospect will make it to the majors. In fact, the numbers are daunting; only six percent (6%) will become major leaguers. And when you consider that "starters" on a major league roster (5 pitchers and 8 position players) are less than 50% of the major league talent, the odds of a prospect being an impact starter are more like three percent (3%).
Fans can drink the Cub kool-aid for the marketing of Cub prospects. If one looks at the key additions to the system in the past year, it is a long list. But the statistical reality of the Cubs minor league system is that only 2 or 3 prospects off of this list of 41 players will be major league contributors:
Javier Baez, SS
Albert Almora, OF
Jorge Soler, OF
Kris Bryant, 3B
Mike Olt, 3B
C.J. Edwards, RHP
Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
Brett Jackson, OF.
Christian Villanueva, 3B
Kyle Hendricks, RHP
Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHP
Dan Vogelbach, 1B.
Pierce Johnson, RHP.
Jeimer Candelario, 3B.
Logan Watkins, 2B.
Duane Underwood, RHP.
Josh Vitters, 3B.
Jae-Hoon Ha, OF.
Matt Szczur, OF.
Dillon Maples, RHP.
Stephen Bruno, INF.
Arismendy Alcantara, SS.
Marco Hernandez, SS.
Gioskar Amaya, 2B.
Frandy De La Rosa SS
Danny Gutierrez, SS
Wagner Disla, RHP
Gerardo Concepcion LHP
Luis Hernandez, RHP,
Oscar De La Cruz, RHP
Jose Morel, LHP
Erling Moreno, RHP
Jefferson Mejia. RHP
Eloy Jimenez, OF
Jen-Ho Tseng, RHP
Rob Zastryzny, LHP
Jacob Hannemann, OF
Tyler Skulina, RHP
Trey Masek, RHP
Scott Frazier, RHP
Eric Jokisch, LHP
A few have already had a taste of major league action, and failed (B. Jackson, Vitters, Watkins who has not played much behind Barney.) Others have battled injuries (Maples, Vizcaino, Soler). One has dropped off the map (Concepcion). Others have found set backs when being promoted to higher levels (Olt).
Now many of the players on the above list will never be Cubs, but may be traded to other teams for more established major league players. But it is pure speculation on which 3 players on the list will be Cub starters in the near future. No one is certain. Just remember only two years ago, the brightest stars in the system were B. Jackson and Vitters. Today, they are slipping into obscurity on prospect charts.
