So much for the vow that the Cubs would not be outbid for Tanaka.
The Japanese pitcher not surprisingly chose the Yankees and its 7 year/$155 million, no trade offer with a player kick-out option after 4 years.
So much was said about the local Chicago media's tweets that the Cubs would be offering 8 years/$180 million for Tanaka. Clearly, either the Cubs did not outbid the Yankees or Tanaka decided that it was not in his best interest to play for the Cubs who are on the verge of losing another 100 games in 2014.
If the whole off-season was tailored to sign Tanaka, then the Cubs have no Plan B. The best available free agent pitcher still on the market is Matt Garza, but we have already sailed that boat.
Showing posts with label Tanaka. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tanaka. Show all posts
January 22, 2014
BETTER TO WAIT
As the Tanaka sweepstakes comes to an end, there is a question for many teams, including the Cubs who will not be in contention for several more years: is it better to wait?
Proven commodities in the pitching department are gold mines. The Cubs won't have their vaulted prospects ready until 2016 at the earliest. The Cubs continue to trim payroll. The front office won't spend in the free agent market until the team is ready to win the division.
So, instead of getting an unproven player in Tanaka, it is probably better to wait for a proven major league starter to come to market.
Case in point, David Price. He will hit he free agent market in 2016. This year he will make $14 million for the Rays. He will also be on the trade block within a year.
Price has been dominate at times. His 6 year career record is 71-39, 3.19 ERA, 1.158 WHIP. His career WAR is 18.6 (2013 was 2.8; 2012 it was 6.9). His average WAR is 3.1.
If you use $5.5 million value per WAR, then Price's current value is $17.05 million per season. By the time he reaches free agency, he will be commanding $20 million/year. This is the same amount of money in the current Tanaka rumors.
The Cubs could wait two years, save $40 million, and attempt to sign a player like Price when the team was truly ready to compete for the divisional crown.
Proven commodities in the pitching department are gold mines. The Cubs won't have their vaulted prospects ready until 2016 at the earliest. The Cubs continue to trim payroll. The front office won't spend in the free agent market until the team is ready to win the division.
So, instead of getting an unproven player in Tanaka, it is probably better to wait for a proven major league starter to come to market.
Case in point, David Price. He will hit he free agent market in 2016. This year he will make $14 million for the Rays. He will also be on the trade block within a year.
Price has been dominate at times. His 6 year career record is 71-39, 3.19 ERA, 1.158 WHIP. His career WAR is 18.6 (2013 was 2.8; 2012 it was 6.9). His average WAR is 3.1.
If you use $5.5 million value per WAR, then Price's current value is $17.05 million per season. By the time he reaches free agency, he will be commanding $20 million/year. This is the same amount of money in the current Tanaka rumors.
The Cubs could wait two years, save $40 million, and attempt to sign a player like Price when the team was truly ready to compete for the divisional crown.
January 21, 2014
LOST IN TRANSLATION
This morning there are various tweets on Mashiro Tanaka's twitter feed which can either be poorly translated as "I cannot decide" or "I have decided." So no one knows what really is going on.
There is also a whirlwind of speculative gossip about what the five teams bid for Tanaka's services. Anywhere from 6 years $120 million to 8 years $180 million.
Tanaka needs to have a signed contract in the hands of MLB by Friday. It seems that this negotiation is dragging on. Maybe it is language barrier. Maybe it is personal, since Tanaka is moving his family to the States and his wife wants to continue her singing career. Maybe it is because Tanaka wants the team he would like to go to to up their last bid. Maybe there is a new last minute bidder gumming up the process (like the Mariners or Giants).
What is lost in translation so far is any real indication of where Tanaka would prefer to play. Does he want to play in the American League and face a DH? Or does he want to take his swings in the National League?
I suspect that will take a minor role to the major factors of a) guaranteed money and b) a competitive team.
If Tanaka was confident in his skills, he would actually want to sign a short term, high annual salary ($20 million/year) then hit the free agent market again at age 28 to get Kershaw-type deal in the $30 million/year range for more seasons. But he will probably sign a Darvish-like deal in terms of money and years.
There is also a whirlwind of speculative gossip about what the five teams bid for Tanaka's services. Anywhere from 6 years $120 million to 8 years $180 million.
Tanaka needs to have a signed contract in the hands of MLB by Friday. It seems that this negotiation is dragging on. Maybe it is language barrier. Maybe it is personal, since Tanaka is moving his family to the States and his wife wants to continue her singing career. Maybe it is because Tanaka wants the team he would like to go to to up their last bid. Maybe there is a new last minute bidder gumming up the process (like the Mariners or Giants).
What is lost in translation so far is any real indication of where Tanaka would prefer to play. Does he want to play in the American League and face a DH? Or does he want to take his swings in the National League?
I suspect that will take a minor role to the major factors of a) guaranteed money and b) a competitive team.
If Tanaka was confident in his skills, he would actually want to sign a short term, high annual salary ($20 million/year) then hit the free agent market again at age 28 to get Kershaw-type deal in the $30 million/year range for more seasons. But he will probably sign a Darvish-like deal in terms of money and years.
January 20, 2014
SHARK FIN SOUP
Jeff Samardzija is heading out of town soon.
The pitcher and Cubs can't agree on an extension.
And they can't come close on valuing the Shark's services.
In arbitration, Samardzija has filed for $6.2 million, with the Cubs are at $4.4 million.
The Cubs low balled him because $4.4 million is easier to trade for a mid-level
starting pitcher than $6.2 million.
Samardzija continues to loudly hint that he is fed up with management's "R word,"
now a derogatory term for "rebuilding." He hinted that if the Cubs were serious about
fielding a good team, the signing of Masahiro Tanaka would be a good start; good
enough to get Samardzija to think about a contract extension.
No matter all the media reports of the Cubs at the table ready to spend whatever it
takes to sign Tanaka, the Japanese star is not coming to Chicago. There is no reason
to when high profile teams like the Dodgers and Yankees really want his services.
It is better to get established on a winning team at age 25, with the possibility of a
second huge contract at age 30-31. The Cubs cannot offer Tanaka, or even Samardzija,
the roster support to become a 20 game winner anytime soon.
And the Cubs pitch to Tanaka that he would be part of a historic "rebuilding" process
has to sound absurd even in translation. If he wanted to play for a AAA caliber team,
he could have stayed in Japan.
Samardzija is not buying the front office sales pitch. He doesn't have to. He has two more years of Cub contract control before he hits the free agent market. So long as he remains healthy, he will have a second chance with another team, sooner or later. That is his career rebuilding plan.
The pitcher and Cubs can't agree on an extension.
And they can't come close on valuing the Shark's services.
In arbitration, Samardzija has filed for $6.2 million, with the Cubs are at $4.4 million.
The Cubs low balled him because $4.4 million is easier to trade for a mid-level
starting pitcher than $6.2 million.
Samardzija continues to loudly hint that he is fed up with management's "R word,"
now a derogatory term for "rebuilding." He hinted that if the Cubs were serious about
fielding a good team, the signing of Masahiro Tanaka would be a good start; good
enough to get Samardzija to think about a contract extension.
No matter all the media reports of the Cubs at the table ready to spend whatever it
takes to sign Tanaka, the Japanese star is not coming to Chicago. There is no reason
to when high profile teams like the Dodgers and Yankees really want his services.
It is better to get established on a winning team at age 25, with the possibility of a
second huge contract at age 30-31. The Cubs cannot offer Tanaka, or even Samardzija,
the roster support to become a 20 game winner anytime soon.
And the Cubs pitch to Tanaka that he would be part of a historic "rebuilding" process
has to sound absurd even in translation. If he wanted to play for a AAA caliber team,
he could have stayed in Japan.
Samardzija is not buying the front office sales pitch. He doesn't have to. He has two more years of Cub contract control before he hits the free agent market. So long as he remains healthy, he will have a second chance with another team, sooner or later. That is his career rebuilding plan.
January 9, 2014
KICK THE CAN
Reports have Japanese star pitcher Mashiro Tanaka making a call this week on both the Cubs and White Sox. Tanaka will get a taste of an arctic weather blast, as cold and foreboding as the teams last season records.
The Cubs claim they are "all in" in the Tanaka signing derby. The White Sox are laying in the weeds not making a big deal about it. Of the two teams, it is more probable yet still highly remote that the White Sox would sign Tanaka over the Cubs.
Talk is free and signing free agents is quite expensive.
Media columnists are now wondering out loud whether the Ricketts family is willing to spend a ton of money to acquire premier free agents like Tanaka. The Ricketts have not tapped any new revenue streams that they have been pushing for the last year or two. Attendance, a major revenue source, continues to decline. The question is why would ownership spend millions of dollars for a good pitcher for a team that will continue to be bad for at least the next two or three years?
The same media pundits are also beginning to question the front office. This is Theo Epstein's third winter with the Cubs, and he has basically nothing tangible to show for his efforts. Yes, he has made trades and signed free agents, but those were second tier assets that have been moved for more prospects. The constant tale of the great prospects down the line is turning into a hollow promise.
Many are looking at Epstein's Cub tenure as "kicking the can down the road." You put off something for tomorrow that you should be doing today. Epstein's job was to build a competitive major league team. So far, it has been a utter failure. The excuse has been the reason for failure is that the Cubs minor league system was so poor it could not support the major league team. But that does not stop big market teams like the Red Sox or Yankees from fielding quality teams. And that does not stop small market clubs like the Orioles quickly promoting quality prospects to majors (especially young starting pitchers). So why not the Cubs?
The one-prong strategy of betting the farm on the farm is the reason why the Cubs are unwinding their major league roster to a basic AAA/AAAA squad. It is not to win the hearts and minds of the fans or the media. It is pare back the payroll with the hope of hitting a dozen prospect home runs in the near future. A near future which also according to the pundits seems to be inside the can being kicked down the road.
The Cubs claim they are "all in" in the Tanaka signing derby. The White Sox are laying in the weeds not making a big deal about it. Of the two teams, it is more probable yet still highly remote that the White Sox would sign Tanaka over the Cubs.
Talk is free and signing free agents is quite expensive.
Media columnists are now wondering out loud whether the Ricketts family is willing to spend a ton of money to acquire premier free agents like Tanaka. The Ricketts have not tapped any new revenue streams that they have been pushing for the last year or two. Attendance, a major revenue source, continues to decline. The question is why would ownership spend millions of dollars for a good pitcher for a team that will continue to be bad for at least the next two or three years?
The same media pundits are also beginning to question the front office. This is Theo Epstein's third winter with the Cubs, and he has basically nothing tangible to show for his efforts. Yes, he has made trades and signed free agents, but those were second tier assets that have been moved for more prospects. The constant tale of the great prospects down the line is turning into a hollow promise.
Many are looking at Epstein's Cub tenure as "kicking the can down the road." You put off something for tomorrow that you should be doing today. Epstein's job was to build a competitive major league team. So far, it has been a utter failure. The excuse has been the reason for failure is that the Cubs minor league system was so poor it could not support the major league team. But that does not stop big market teams like the Red Sox or Yankees from fielding quality teams. And that does not stop small market clubs like the Orioles quickly promoting quality prospects to majors (especially young starting pitchers). So why not the Cubs?
The one-prong strategy of betting the farm on the farm is the reason why the Cubs are unwinding their major league roster to a basic AAA/AAAA squad. It is not to win the hearts and minds of the fans or the media. It is pare back the payroll with the hope of hitting a dozen prospect home runs in the near future. A near future which also according to the pundits seems to be inside the can being kicked down the road.
December 31, 2013
WHY TANK NOW?
Masahiro Tanaka is the buzz of the off-season. The media believes the Cubs will push hard to sign Tanaka. Except, such a signing goes against everything we heard about The Plan.
1. Yes, Tanaka has the potential to be a Number 1 starter in the majors. However, there are several scouts who believe that Yu Darvish was a better pitcher when he signed with the Rangers. Tanaka is actually looking to surpass the Darvish contract cost, even though the posting fee is capped at $20 million. The Cubs have stressed building the minor league system as the foundation for long term success. To sign a high priced free agent to a long term contract (5 to 6 years) is a real gamble.
2. There is always a question of the transition foreign players have when they come to America. Less than 6 percent of international free agents become major league ball players. Even the most major league ready players can struggle (example, Starlin Castro). So there is no guarantee that an international player will be an impact player. The only guarantee is the amount of money in the player's contract.
3. The finances do not make sense. The Cubs have stalled on their rebuilding plans because of myriad of excuses such as the threat of a rooftop owner lawsuit. Some people are considering the possibility that the Cubs are not as financially sound as fans think a big market team would be in 2013. The team wants to double its local broadcast license fees, but the one outlet, WGN, is balking at any increase. The Cubs overspent on the draft and international player pool last year, perhaps in anticipation that new revenue streams would be online by now. But they are not. Payroll has dropped for the past 4 years, and it is expected to continue that trend in 2014.
4. Big contracts tend to create big headaches. The Cubs are just unwinding the Soriano dead money deal. Why get out from under that contract yoke to sign another new one, with a pitcher no less. Fans have been critical of the Edwin Jackson $54 million deal, which again came out of no where and was not part of rebuilding strategy. It was a knee jerk reaction to losing out on A. Sanchez. The signing of Tanaka would be effectively putting 20 percent of your payroll into one player who may get 33 starts per season.
5. A big splash on Tanaka means that the organization is signaling that it may not be able to draft and develop major league pitching talent. The Cubs have drafted a wagon load of pitchers the past two seasons, and none are on the radar for the Cubs roster. In fact, the only drafted and developed starter is Jeff Samardzija, whose own contract status is in limbo. If the organization cannot develop its own core pitchers, then it will have to overspend on free agents to make up the talent gap. But star pitchers tend to be overpaid, and subject to more injuries than positional players. That is why the White Sox have a philosophy of never signing a pitcher to more than a 4 year deal.
6. There is also the heavy burden that managers, coaches and players talk about AFTER they leave the Cubs. There is a heavy expectation to outperform because of the historic losing streak of the franchise. Players may not believe in the curse, but there is a crushing difference in playing for the Cubs than other teams. Lou Piniella called it a different kind of pressure that got to him so badly that he quit. How a Japanese player with a language barrier in a large city is going to cope with all the sideshow circus expectations is a difficult question. Kosuke Fukudome never lived up to his expectations when he was a Cub.
7. The Cubs roster is not built to win now. Tanaka will have the choice of many franchises that are currently built to win now, such as the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers or Red Sox. Talented pitchers on a losing team tend to get frustrated - - - as Samardzija has beefed about the last two seasons. Tanaka is not going to go 24-0, 1.20 ERA with the Cubs in 2014. The reality of being smothered into being a .500 pitcher because of the bad team around you can tend to make pitchers lose concentration, focus and the desire to win. Then, you may not be able to move a high priced .500 pitcher in the future.
Tanaka may become a quality starting pitcher. However, he really does not fit into the short term plan for the Cubs.
1. Yes, Tanaka has the potential to be a Number 1 starter in the majors. However, there are several scouts who believe that Yu Darvish was a better pitcher when he signed with the Rangers. Tanaka is actually looking to surpass the Darvish contract cost, even though the posting fee is capped at $20 million. The Cubs have stressed building the minor league system as the foundation for long term success. To sign a high priced free agent to a long term contract (5 to 6 years) is a real gamble.
2. There is always a question of the transition foreign players have when they come to America. Less than 6 percent of international free agents become major league ball players. Even the most major league ready players can struggle (example, Starlin Castro). So there is no guarantee that an international player will be an impact player. The only guarantee is the amount of money in the player's contract.
3. The finances do not make sense. The Cubs have stalled on their rebuilding plans because of myriad of excuses such as the threat of a rooftop owner lawsuit. Some people are considering the possibility that the Cubs are not as financially sound as fans think a big market team would be in 2013. The team wants to double its local broadcast license fees, but the one outlet, WGN, is balking at any increase. The Cubs overspent on the draft and international player pool last year, perhaps in anticipation that new revenue streams would be online by now. But they are not. Payroll has dropped for the past 4 years, and it is expected to continue that trend in 2014.
4. Big contracts tend to create big headaches. The Cubs are just unwinding the Soriano dead money deal. Why get out from under that contract yoke to sign another new one, with a pitcher no less. Fans have been critical of the Edwin Jackson $54 million deal, which again came out of no where and was not part of rebuilding strategy. It was a knee jerk reaction to losing out on A. Sanchez. The signing of Tanaka would be effectively putting 20 percent of your payroll into one player who may get 33 starts per season.
5. A big splash on Tanaka means that the organization is signaling that it may not be able to draft and develop major league pitching talent. The Cubs have drafted a wagon load of pitchers the past two seasons, and none are on the radar for the Cubs roster. In fact, the only drafted and developed starter is Jeff Samardzija, whose own contract status is in limbo. If the organization cannot develop its own core pitchers, then it will have to overspend on free agents to make up the talent gap. But star pitchers tend to be overpaid, and subject to more injuries than positional players. That is why the White Sox have a philosophy of never signing a pitcher to more than a 4 year deal.
6. There is also the heavy burden that managers, coaches and players talk about AFTER they leave the Cubs. There is a heavy expectation to outperform because of the historic losing streak of the franchise. Players may not believe in the curse, but there is a crushing difference in playing for the Cubs than other teams. Lou Piniella called it a different kind of pressure that got to him so badly that he quit. How a Japanese player with a language barrier in a large city is going to cope with all the sideshow circus expectations is a difficult question. Kosuke Fukudome never lived up to his expectations when he was a Cub.
7. The Cubs roster is not built to win now. Tanaka will have the choice of many franchises that are currently built to win now, such as the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers or Red Sox. Talented pitchers on a losing team tend to get frustrated - - - as Samardzija has beefed about the last two seasons. Tanaka is not going to go 24-0, 1.20 ERA with the Cubs in 2014. The reality of being smothered into being a .500 pitcher because of the bad team around you can tend to make pitchers lose concentration, focus and the desire to win. Then, you may not be able to move a high priced .500 pitcher in the future.
Tanaka may become a quality starting pitcher. However, he really does not fit into the short term plan for the Cubs.
December 28, 2013
THE SET-UP FOR FAILURE
The Cubs have not toned back the media stories about the Cubs going "all in" to win the Tanaka sweepstakes.
Yes, the Cubs are one of 8 teams who will try to sign the coveted Japanese pitcher.
And several of those teams have large, profitable new television contracts which inflates their payrolls dramatically (i.e. the Mariners, Dodgers, Angels and Yankees).
But the notion that the Cubs "won't be outbid" for Tanaka seems ridiculous. It is not a question of what the amount of money the Cubs will bid, but it is also where Tanaka wants to pitch (most likely to a contender).
Cynical fans also think that there is more "talk" than action in recent years from the front office. They say they made bids for start free agents like A. Sanchez, but in truth, those bids were much lower than the team that signed him. A low ball bid with almost zero chance of acceptance is really not a qualified, good faith effort. Many fans believe that the Cubs are not going to win in 2014 or 2015. So why would a team with no chance of winning try to sign an "ace" pitcher and basically "waste" 2 or 3 years of salary in a losing effort? That does not seem feasible if the Cubs continue to pull in the purse strings in order to pay the team's massive debt service and fund Ricketts massive real estate development project.
Some believe that Epstein may be allowed to make a 5 year/$55 million Edwin Jackson style bid (which in reality would be a $75 million investment with the posting fee), but that will not come close to the projected $100 million asking price. The "we tried" to sign him excuse may help in PR, but does not help shore up fading trust with the fan base.
With the mountain of pitchers the Cubs have drafted in the last two years, and none making waves in national scouting service reports, the discussion about the need to sign free agents or trade for quality major league ready arms calls into question the whole rebuilding plan.
Bottom line: the Cubs have less than a 5 percent chance to sign Tanaka. And if they do sign him, they will be overpaying for a major league ready prospect to gain some publicity for a few years for a bad baseball team.
Yes, the Cubs are one of 8 teams who will try to sign the coveted Japanese pitcher.
And several of those teams have large, profitable new television contracts which inflates their payrolls dramatically (i.e. the Mariners, Dodgers, Angels and Yankees).
But the notion that the Cubs "won't be outbid" for Tanaka seems ridiculous. It is not a question of what the amount of money the Cubs will bid, but it is also where Tanaka wants to pitch (most likely to a contender).
Cynical fans also think that there is more "talk" than action in recent years from the front office. They say they made bids for start free agents like A. Sanchez, but in truth, those bids were much lower than the team that signed him. A low ball bid with almost zero chance of acceptance is really not a qualified, good faith effort. Many fans believe that the Cubs are not going to win in 2014 or 2015. So why would a team with no chance of winning try to sign an "ace" pitcher and basically "waste" 2 or 3 years of salary in a losing effort? That does not seem feasible if the Cubs continue to pull in the purse strings in order to pay the team's massive debt service and fund Ricketts massive real estate development project.
Some believe that Epstein may be allowed to make a 5 year/$55 million Edwin Jackson style bid (which in reality would be a $75 million investment with the posting fee), but that will not come close to the projected $100 million asking price. The "we tried" to sign him excuse may help in PR, but does not help shore up fading trust with the fan base.
With the mountain of pitchers the Cubs have drafted in the last two years, and none making waves in national scouting service reports, the discussion about the need to sign free agents or trade for quality major league ready arms calls into question the whole rebuilding plan.
Bottom line: the Cubs have less than a 5 percent chance to sign Tanaka. And if they do sign him, they will be overpaying for a major league ready prospect to gain some publicity for a few years for a bad baseball team.
December 26, 2013
THE PRIZE
After a lot of internal angst and anger over the new posting fee system with MLB, Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who
went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA and 183 strikeouts in 212 innings this past
summer for the Rakuten Golden Eagles of Nippon Professional Baseball, was "posted" (free to negotiate with American teams) on Tuesday evening to pursue his dream of pitching at baseball's highest level.
Tanaka, 25, has impressive numbers in Japanese baseball. In 7 seasons as a starter, he has compiled a record in 175 games 99-35 (.739 win percentage), 2.30 ERA, 1.108 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 IP, 4.5 K/BB ratio.
His old team will receive $20 million posting fee if Tanaka signs with a MLB club.
Tanaka is expected to ask for approximately $100 million deal. This will blow past the record 6 year/$58 million contract with the Rangers (plus the $51.5 million post fee).
Darvish has been one of the few exceptions to the general rule in regard to Japanese baseball players coming over to make an impact in the game. Irchiro had a stellar career in the States, but it more often than not that pitchers tend to struggle unless they have major league power velocity.
The Cubs, Diamondbacks and Angels are rumored suitors for Tanaka, but do not count out the Yankees or Dodgers deep pockets from making a bid.
The Cubs claim they will aggressively seek Tanaka, but every time they attempt a major signing during the rebuilding process, nothing came of it. The statement that the Cubs will bid on Tanaka is meaningless because one can submit a confidential low ball bid, then tell the fans later that it was not accepted. It is a weak attempt for positive winter PR.
Tanaka's U.S. agent also represents the Dodgers Kershaw and Greinke which leads some to speculate that LA will have an inside track on signing Tanaka.
Tanaka, 25, has impressive numbers in Japanese baseball. In 7 seasons as a starter, he has compiled a record in 175 games 99-35 (.739 win percentage), 2.30 ERA, 1.108 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 IP, 4.5 K/BB ratio.
His old team will receive $20 million posting fee if Tanaka signs with a MLB club.
Tanaka is expected to ask for approximately $100 million deal. This will blow past the record 6 year/$58 million contract with the Rangers (plus the $51.5 million post fee).
Darvish has been one of the few exceptions to the general rule in regard to Japanese baseball players coming over to make an impact in the game. Irchiro had a stellar career in the States, but it more often than not that pitchers tend to struggle unless they have major league power velocity.
The Cubs, Diamondbacks and Angels are rumored suitors for Tanaka, but do not count out the Yankees or Dodgers deep pockets from making a bid.
The Cubs claim they will aggressively seek Tanaka, but every time they attempt a major signing during the rebuilding process, nothing came of it. The statement that the Cubs will bid on Tanaka is meaningless because one can submit a confidential low ball bid, then tell the fans later that it was not accepted. It is a weak attempt for positive winter PR.
Tanaka's U.S. agent also represents the Dodgers Kershaw and Greinke which leads some to speculate that LA will have an inside track on signing Tanaka.
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