HITTERS RULE REALIGNMENT

It was a game of musical chairs and Yoenis Cespedes was the last free agent outfielder standing.

He did not get the mega-deal that he was looking for in free agency. In fact, it really comes down to a one year deal with an insurance bonus in case of injury.

Cespedes re-signed with the Mets for 3 years/$75 million deal with a one year opt out clause. That means he will be playing in 2016 for another round of free agency. That should be good for the Mets.
If he gets hurt, he can keep the $50 million guarantee for the next two years.

It was a good and necessary deal for the Mets. The New York Times baseball writer remarked  that  re-signing of Cespedes should go a long way towards restoring fan trust in the organization. The club has taken a lot of flak in recent years for perceived penny pinching and a failure to make big, meaningful moves in the offseason. Much of that can be blamed upon the Bernie Madoff scandal and the fact that minority stakes can be redeemed like loan payments in the near future.

The Mets needed a power hitter to compliment their young starting pitching staff. Cespedes is the key in their line up. But some observe that Cespedes is targeted to play center field, which is not his strong suit.

Yahoo Sports wrote that based on past performance, Cespedes can be a disaster in center field. He has excellent arm strength but he has poor route running and quick recognition skills that a good CF needs to cover ground in both left center and right center. 


In a perfect world, Cespedes would DH for the Mets. And this may be why this off-season there has been more and more talk about bringing the DH to the National League. The Cubs would like to see the DH since Kyle Schwarber is a hitter without a position. He wants to catch but the organization does not believe he has the defensive skills to play behind the plate everyday. However, Schwarber disagrees. Schwarber is a pure hitter who is willing to play an uncomfortable left field in order to get in the line up. He may be best suited as a first basemen, but Rizzo has that position locked up. So the Cubs front office would love to have the DH option for Joe Maddon. 

But that is the last, clear difference between the American and National leagues. As an old school baseball fan, I enjoy the strategy and nuisances of having pitchers bat in the NL. And it is always fun to see good hitting pitchers (which the Cubs have actually been blessed with in the past decade) help their own cause. It is ironic that the best youth hitters are most likely the best hitters on their team gets lost as a prospect moves his way through academic and pro levels of development.

If the NL goes the route of the DH, then there really is no need to have separate leagues anymore. This would spread the discussion of major realignment of all the 30 teams. 

You can divide 30 teams evenly by 6 divisions of 5 teams each. The playoffs get easier with the 6 divisional winners making the playoffs and two "wild cards" for any division rounding out the competition. The best regular season records control home field advantage throughout the playoffs, including the World Series.

The only reasons to realign baseball is to cut down on travel expenses and increase regional rivalries, since it is possible that drawing in-park attendance may become a major factor as cable television ratings continue to decline.

For example, the Midwest division seems easy:

Twins, Brewers, Cubs, White Sox, Royals, Cardinals.

In fact, this division has "double" rivalries built in, such as the Cardinals-Royals and Cardinals-Cubs; Cubs-Cardinals and Cubs-White Sox, etc.

The Western division also seems easy:

Mariners, Giants, A's, Angels, Dodgers, Padres.

The South gets spread between all three time zones:

Diamondbacks, Rangers, Astros, Rockies, Marlins, Rays.

The Central would run North to South:

Blue Jays, Tigers, Indians, Pirates, Reds, Braves.

That leaves the East Coast teams:

Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Orioles, Phillies, Nationals.

GORDON RETAINED

MLBTR reports that the Royals will retain OF Alex Gordon.

Gordon was one of the top three FA outfielders on the market. But after the pitchers signed their
big deals, the free agent market dried up in December.

So much so that Gordon is taking a contract well below what analysts had predicted he would receive in free agency.
MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan and Yahoo Sports Jeff Passan report the deal is believed to be for four years with a guarantee in the “low-$70MM range,”

Passan wrote that a deal could come together quickly between the two sides, and it appears just that has occurred. An official announcement could come later today, says Flanagan, assuming Gordon passes his physical.

The preliminary figures noted above would appear to suggest that middle ground was found between team and player. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had credited the veteran with earning power in the five-year, $105MM range entering the winter, and by all appearances there were numerous other teams with serious interest in his services.

Teams have become conservative at this stage of the free agent market. It could be that borderline teams do not want to give up a first round draft choice AND sign a $100 million commitment to an outfielder. The White Sox were among the teams with serious interest. A four year deal is at the far end for ownership's risk level with any player, but it would seem Gordon's decision to stay in KC was to continue with a proven winning team. 

For the sabermetric crowd, Gordon had the most value of the outfield FAs (Cespedes, Upton) because of his high defensive skills, something that teams like the White Sox are desperate to improve.

If Gordon's contract is in the $70 million range, that may drop the market price for Cespedes and Upton below the $100 million mark. That would mark a major turning point in the free agent market.

THE THREE AMIGOS

Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Alex Gordon have something in common. They are all outfielders and free agents in a market that seems to be moving at a glacier's pace.

The problem is valuation. What teams are willing to spend vs. a player's expectations. Skewed in the discussion was Jason Heyward's 8 year/$184 million contract (which is less because of the two opt out years). It really calculates to a 3 year/$85.5 million deal (including signing bonus) or a very high $28.5 million AAV.

Heyward, 26, had a 6.5 WAR in 2015 and was paid $7.5 million. His production value was $37.5 million last year. He was due a substantial raise.

Upton, 28, had a 4.4 WAR in 2015, and he was paid $14.5 million. His production value was $25 million last year.

Cespedes, 30, had a 6.3 WAR and was paid $10.5 million last season. His production value was $35.9 million.

Gordon, 31, had a down WAR (dropping from 6.6 to 2.8). He was paid $12.5 million last season. His production value was $15.96 million.

Age is clearly a factor. A player over the age of 30 is starting his decline (as evidenced by Gordon's last two seasons).

MLBTR estimated that Upton would receive $147 million, Cespedes $140 million and Gordon $105 million this off-season. With Heyward's deal moving the meter higher, there may be team push back at giving any of these players $25 million AAV.

Each of the free agents has issues. Upton has beenhaving a dropping batting average and inconsistent play. Cespedes has been on four teams in five years which leads some to speculate he may have clubhouse issues. Gordon is being productive more on the defensive end of the scale and GMs do not like to pay for defense alone.

Each player agent can argue that his client is good as Heyward so they should be in the $185 million contract range.

The market is further depressed because there has been no reported interest by any big market money teams (Yankees, Angels, Rangers) on any of these players. Even teams that lost out on the David Price sweepstakes, like the Cardinals, have not used that budget money on signing any of the free agent outfielders.

Which player will blink first and sign to re-set this outfield market?

CENTER FIELD JAM

Yoenis Cespedes, through his agent, sent a weird 20 minute video to major league teams to drum up interest for his services since his defection from Cuba in 2011. It was a strange YouTube, self produced video that was heavy on personality and light on actual baseball footage. It was made to smooth over some international scout impressions because Cespedes international career has highs and lows.

Cespedes is an allegedly 26 years old, 5’ 10” 187 lb center fielder.  His mother was an athlete, a Cuban softball pitcher who appeared in the 2000 Olympics.

He started the 2009 Baseball World Cup as Cuba's starting center fielder but struggled and only hit .194/.275/.333 while being caught in his only steal attempt. Cespedes  pinch-hit and got a 9th-inning single off Brad Lincoln in Cuba's 10-5 loss to Team USA title game.

Cespedes hit .345/.426/.617 in the 2009-2010 season with 87 runs and 22 homers in 87 contests. He was third in the league in runs, 10th in hits (118), 8th in home runs, 4th in total bases  and was 9th in slugging.

Cespedes was 11 for 22 with 12 runs, 14 RBI, 2 doubles and four homers in six games at the 2010 World University Baseball Championship. He drove in six against South Korea and five against China. In the Gold Medal game, he was 0 for 4 with a strikeout as Cuba's #5 batter in a 4-3 win over Team USA.

He played for Cuba when they finished second in the 2010 Pan American Games Qualifying Tournament. In the 2010 Intercontinental Cup, he was 3 for 10 with a double, 3 runs, 4 RBI and a walk as a backup.

Cespedes put up a .333/.424/.667 batting line with 89 runs, 33 home runs and 99 RBI in 90 games in the 2010-2011 season. He led the league in runs, tied  for the home run lead (breaking the league record by one),[tied for the most total bases (236), tiedfor 7th in steals (11 in 14 tries), led in RBI  and finished 5th in slugging. He was named the All-Star center fielder.

Pro scouts believe Cespedes is a five-tool player; one who excels at hitting for average, hitting for power, baserunning skills and speed, throwing ability, and fielding abilities. If you try to imagine the Cuban National League as a AAA-AA talent league, his numbers are pretty consistent:

YEAR       AVG  HR  RBI
2009          .284    26    78
2010         .345    22     76
2011          .333   33     99

However, there lacks the critical element of comparison to the talent he was playing against in Cuba. It makes it harder to project how he will do against major league pitching. So it is a real crap shoot in the dark to evaluate a player whose age, competition and major projections are mere speculation. It is also a more difficult decision since the agent is looking for a 5 year/$60 million deal.

The Cubs were one of six teams mentioned in the mix for Cespedes. That would mean that Epstein and Hoyer do not have the same evaluation of Brett Jackson, the team's center fielder in waiting, as did Hendry and the fans. Right now, Byrd is blocking Jackson from starting in CF in 2012. Jackson is ready to be promoted as he has excelled at all levels, including AAA last season. If Cespedes is signed, Byrd may be either a) the 4th OF with Reed Johnson or b) traded for low prospects. Soriano and DeJesus will not lose their starting roles.

If you are looking to fill in the middle of the order, we know Byrd is not productive in the #3 or #4 spot. Cespedes projects into the middle of the line up, and Jackson projects to a #3 hitter.  Byrd's contract is up after 2012; Cespedes and Jackson can be under the same number of years of control (an aspect near and dear to Epstein's rebuild project).

Since CF is not a pressing need, the Cubs may be better off using the money needed to pay for Cespedes into acquiring depth in pitchers.