The baseless story on Jake Arrieta's rise to ace status was taken off the sports pages today by the announcement of another 80 game PED suspension.
The Marlins Dee Gordon was suspended by MLB for using banned substances. Gordon, who had a career year in 2014 with the Dodgers, signed a big money deal with the Marlins, a 5 year $50 million extension. Gordon failed a drug test for use of banned substances exogenous testosterone and clostebol.
ESPN's Buster Olney remarked that Gordon’s suspension serves only as further proof that the potential
reward for using PEDs far outweighs the risks. The Marlins did not know if
Gordon was using PEDs during his All Star seasons with the Dodgers. But the team will still owe Gordon
roughly $48 million despite the suspension. And that is the crux of the problem: even after a suspension, the team owes the balance of the player contract. Olney recalls that
early in his career, Gordon struggled to simply to stay in
the Major Leagues after being relegated to the bench and changing
positions. Players in similar situations can
certainly look to Gordon’s situation and see the temptation of using banned
substances in order to get to their goal of being a major league player.
MLB thought it had swept the drug abuse issue under the rug with stricter minor league testing programs and more through major league tests. Ken Rosenthal remarks that many players continue to voice their concern that every player gets their reputation hit by every new suspension. With a new collective bargaining agreement on the horizon, the players' union may have concede greater player punishments or concessions in order to stem the tide of bad public relations. Some players have suggested a two-year ban, though
Rosenthal himself wonders if at a certain point the MLBPA will change its steadfast position to
allow some or all of a player’s long-term contract to be voided by PED
usage. Player agents' will strongly lobby against such a move. It could lead to more adversarial arbitration if a player 's contract was to be voided for a failed drug test, but the player claims to have never taken a banned substance. The Ryan Braun denials and abuse of the test taker shed a horrible light on everyone involved in the drug testing program. MLB does not want to have a constant turnstyle of PED arbitration cases.
But the temptation to cheat is great because the major league salary levels continue to increase.In 2015, the average major league salary was $3,386,212. In 2016, the minimum major league salary was $511,000. So, even bench players seeking the major league minimum make more than the average fan in the stands still have an incentive to cheat.
Showing posts with label Gordon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gordon. Show all posts
April 29, 2016
January 6, 2016
GORDON RETAINED
MLBTR reports that the Royals will retain OF Alex Gordon.
Gordon was one of the top three FA outfielders on the market. But after the pitchers signed their
big deals, the free agent market dried up in December.
So much so that Gordon is taking a contract well below what analysts had predicted he would receive in free agency.
MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan and Yahoo Sports Jeff Passan report the deal is believed to be for four years with a guarantee in the “low-$70MM range,”
Passan wrote that a deal could come together quickly between the two sides, and it appears just that has occurred. An official announcement could come later today, says Flanagan, assuming Gordon passes his physical.
The preliminary figures noted above would appear to suggest that middle ground was found between team and player. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had credited the veteran with earning power in the five-year, $105MM range entering the winter, and by all appearances there were numerous other teams with serious interest in his services.
Teams have become conservative at this stage of the free agent market. It could be that borderline teams do not want to give up a first round draft choice AND sign a $100 million commitment to an outfielder. The White Sox were among the teams with serious interest. A four year deal is at the far end for ownership's risk level with any player, but it would seem Gordon's decision to stay in KC was to continue with a proven winning team.
For the sabermetric crowd, Gordon had the most value of the outfield FAs (Cespedes, Upton) because of his high defensive skills, something that teams like the White Sox are desperate to improve.
If Gordon's contract is in the $70 million range, that may drop the market price for Cespedes and Upton below the $100 million mark. That would mark a major turning point in the free agent market.
Gordon was one of the top three FA outfielders on the market. But after the pitchers signed their
big deals, the free agent market dried up in December.
So much so that Gordon is taking a contract well below what analysts had predicted he would receive in free agency.
MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan and Yahoo Sports Jeff Passan report the deal is believed to be for four years with a guarantee in the “low-$70MM range,”
Passan wrote that a deal could come together quickly between the two sides, and it appears just that has occurred. An official announcement could come later today, says Flanagan, assuming Gordon passes his physical.
The preliminary figures noted above would appear to suggest that middle ground was found between team and player. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had credited the veteran with earning power in the five-year, $105MM range entering the winter, and by all appearances there were numerous other teams with serious interest in his services.
Teams have become conservative at this stage of the free agent market. It could be that borderline teams do not want to give up a first round draft choice AND sign a $100 million commitment to an outfielder. The White Sox were among the teams with serious interest. A four year deal is at the far end for ownership's risk level with any player, but it would seem Gordon's decision to stay in KC was to continue with a proven winning team.
For the sabermetric crowd, Gordon had the most value of the outfield FAs (Cespedes, Upton) because of his high defensive skills, something that teams like the White Sox are desperate to improve.
If Gordon's contract is in the $70 million range, that may drop the market price for Cespedes and Upton below the $100 million mark. That would mark a major turning point in the free agent market.
December 31, 2015
THE THREE AMIGOS
Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Alex Gordon have something in common. They are all outfielders and free agents in a market that seems to be moving at a glacier's pace.
The problem is valuation. What teams are willing to spend vs. a player's expectations. Skewed in the discussion was Jason Heyward's 8 year/$184 million contract (which is less because of the two opt out years). It really calculates to a 3 year/$85.5 million deal (including signing bonus) or a very high $28.5 million AAV.
Heyward, 26, had a 6.5 WAR in 2015 and was paid $7.5 million. His production value was $37.5 million last year. He was due a substantial raise.
Upton, 28, had a 4.4 WAR in 2015, and he was paid $14.5 million. His production value was $25 million last year.
Cespedes, 30, had a 6.3 WAR and was paid $10.5 million last season. His production value was $35.9 million.
Gordon, 31, had a down WAR (dropping from 6.6 to 2.8). He was paid $12.5 million last season. His production value was $15.96 million.
Age is clearly a factor. A player over the age of 30 is starting his decline (as evidenced by Gordon's last two seasons).
MLBTR estimated that Upton would receive $147 million, Cespedes $140 million and Gordon $105 million this off-season. With Heyward's deal moving the meter higher, there may be team push back at giving any of these players $25 million AAV.
Each of the free agents has issues. Upton has beenhaving a dropping batting average and inconsistent play. Cespedes has been on four teams in five years which leads some to speculate he may have clubhouse issues. Gordon is being productive more on the defensive end of the scale and GMs do not like to pay for defense alone.
Each player agent can argue that his client is good as Heyward so they should be in the $185 million contract range.
The market is further depressed because there has been no reported interest by any big market money teams (Yankees, Angels, Rangers) on any of these players. Even teams that lost out on the David Price sweepstakes, like the Cardinals, have not used that budget money on signing any of the free agent outfielders.
Which player will blink first and sign to re-set this outfield market?
The problem is valuation. What teams are willing to spend vs. a player's expectations. Skewed in the discussion was Jason Heyward's 8 year/$184 million contract (which is less because of the two opt out years). It really calculates to a 3 year/$85.5 million deal (including signing bonus) or a very high $28.5 million AAV.
Heyward, 26, had a 6.5 WAR in 2015 and was paid $7.5 million. His production value was $37.5 million last year. He was due a substantial raise.
Upton, 28, had a 4.4 WAR in 2015, and he was paid $14.5 million. His production value was $25 million last year.
Cespedes, 30, had a 6.3 WAR and was paid $10.5 million last season. His production value was $35.9 million.
Gordon, 31, had a down WAR (dropping from 6.6 to 2.8). He was paid $12.5 million last season. His production value was $15.96 million.
Age is clearly a factor. A player over the age of 30 is starting his decline (as evidenced by Gordon's last two seasons).
MLBTR estimated that Upton would receive $147 million, Cespedes $140 million and Gordon $105 million this off-season. With Heyward's deal moving the meter higher, there may be team push back at giving any of these players $25 million AAV.
Each of the free agents has issues. Upton has beenhaving a dropping batting average and inconsistent play. Cespedes has been on four teams in five years which leads some to speculate he may have clubhouse issues. Gordon is being productive more on the defensive end of the scale and GMs do not like to pay for defense alone.
Each player agent can argue that his client is good as Heyward so they should be in the $185 million contract range.
The market is further depressed because there has been no reported interest by any big market money teams (Yankees, Angels, Rangers) on any of these players. Even teams that lost out on the David Price sweepstakes, like the Cardinals, have not used that budget money on signing any of the free agent outfielders.
Which player will blink first and sign to re-set this outfield market?
November 4, 2015
POSSIBLE BLUEPRINT
Every team goes into the Winter Meetings with a plan on how to improve their club.
There are critical needs assessments. There are target players to fill those needs.
In the last week, we have heard from various sources, including NY Post writer Joel Sherman and baseball veteran Peter Gammons, on what the Cubs may be up to this off-season.
From an outsider's perspective, here are the Cubs critical needs:
1. New CF/lead off hitter. Fowler is a free agent who will be seeking a long term contract.
2. #3 starter. As Gammons said, "an innings eater."
3. #4 starter. The starting pitching was a glaring weakness in the post season run.
4. Middle relievers: Cahill, Richard and Hunter are free agents. Wood may try to earn a starting role. This leaves have the bullpen open.
5. Back up Catcher: If the Cubs really want Schwarber to work on his catching skills (since the outfield has been questionable) he needs to spend the winter in the instructional league. If Schwarber is not going to be a serviceable catcher, then the Cubs will need to find Montero's replacement either inside the organization or outside since Ross only has one year left on his deal.
Surprisingly, Sherman and Gammons indicated that the big target for the Cubs this off season will be Royals LF Alex Gordon. Gordon can opt out of his final year, $12.5 million deal. He says he wants to stay with the Royals, but he should command a long term extension at more than the qualifying offer value of $15.8 million.
Gordon, 32, in 104 GP hit .271, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 2 SB and had a 2.8 WAR. That does not seem to be special production for the alleged "best left fielder in the game." He does not meet the critical needs of the team: center field or lead off.
The writers also agree that in order to upgrade pitching, the Cubs will have to go into the market and find several veteran, quality arms for the #3 and #4 slots. Gammons believes that the Cubs will probably trade both Soler and Castro in order to find pitchers. As discussed in a previous post, Soler's trade value is at its highest level due to his post-season performance. Power around the leagues is in short supply, and Soler appears to be a DH candidate. Castro's value was higher a year and half ago, but with a surplus of middle infielders, he is the likely candidate to be moved to another team.
If the Cubs are looking to go into the free agent pitching market, they will not be targeting the big names. Ironically, the type of innings eater (200 IP) would be a Samardzija, whose 2015 performance may have put him in the second tier of value. He may not accept what the Cubs had offered him prior to the trade to Oakland, but his year with the White Sox really devalued his position in the free agent market.
In the free agent center field market, the crop is very thin (it contains two ex-Cubs):
Rajai Davis (age, 35)
Dexter Fowler (30)
Austin Jackson (29)
Justin Maxwell (32)
Colby Rasmus (29)
Shane Robinson (30)
Denard Span (32)
Drew Stubbs (31)
Span was hurt for most of last season, and Stubbs was terrible. Rasmus has turned into a journeyman who hit 25 HR in Houston this year, but batted only .238. This is why Fowler is the cream of the CF crop this off season.
There are critical needs assessments. There are target players to fill those needs.
In the last week, we have heard from various sources, including NY Post writer Joel Sherman and baseball veteran Peter Gammons, on what the Cubs may be up to this off-season.
From an outsider's perspective, here are the Cubs critical needs:
1. New CF/lead off hitter. Fowler is a free agent who will be seeking a long term contract.
2. #3 starter. As Gammons said, "an innings eater."
3. #4 starter. The starting pitching was a glaring weakness in the post season run.
4. Middle relievers: Cahill, Richard and Hunter are free agents. Wood may try to earn a starting role. This leaves have the bullpen open.
5. Back up Catcher: If the Cubs really want Schwarber to work on his catching skills (since the outfield has been questionable) he needs to spend the winter in the instructional league. If Schwarber is not going to be a serviceable catcher, then the Cubs will need to find Montero's replacement either inside the organization or outside since Ross only has one year left on his deal.
Surprisingly, Sherman and Gammons indicated that the big target for the Cubs this off season will be Royals LF Alex Gordon. Gordon can opt out of his final year, $12.5 million deal. He says he wants to stay with the Royals, but he should command a long term extension at more than the qualifying offer value of $15.8 million.
Gordon, 32, in 104 GP hit .271, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 2 SB and had a 2.8 WAR. That does not seem to be special production for the alleged "best left fielder in the game." He does not meet the critical needs of the team: center field or lead off.
The writers also agree that in order to upgrade pitching, the Cubs will have to go into the market and find several veteran, quality arms for the #3 and #4 slots. Gammons believes that the Cubs will probably trade both Soler and Castro in order to find pitchers. As discussed in a previous post, Soler's trade value is at its highest level due to his post-season performance. Power around the leagues is in short supply, and Soler appears to be a DH candidate. Castro's value was higher a year and half ago, but with a surplus of middle infielders, he is the likely candidate to be moved to another team.
If the Cubs are looking to go into the free agent pitching market, they will not be targeting the big names. Ironically, the type of innings eater (200 IP) would be a Samardzija, whose 2015 performance may have put him in the second tier of value. He may not accept what the Cubs had offered him prior to the trade to Oakland, but his year with the White Sox really devalued his position in the free agent market.
In the free agent center field market, the crop is very thin (it contains two ex-Cubs):
Rajai Davis (age, 35)
Dexter Fowler (30)
Austin Jackson (29)
Justin Maxwell (32)
Colby Rasmus (29)
Shane Robinson (30)
Denard Span (32)
Drew Stubbs (31)
Span was hurt for most of last season, and Stubbs was terrible. Rasmus has turned into a journeyman who hit 25 HR in Houston this year, but batted only .238. This is why Fowler is the cream of the CF crop this off season.
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