After two nail biting victories over the Brewers, the Cubs are crawling to the post season.
Talk has turned to the playoff starting rotation. There are questions for every current Cub starter including the swing man Montgomery.
Lester has not been the sharp playoff ace in his last 3 starts.
Arrieta is coming back from a hamstring injury.
Quintana has good outings and bad innings.
Lackey has been very consistent in his last 4 starts, but not overpowering.
Hendricks seems to be finding his last season groove but does he have the stamina to finish strong?
Montgomery pitched a quality start one-hitter in his last spot start. Maddon seems to be clear that he wants Monty in the bullpen in the playoffs.
Most assume that you want your "ace" to start Game 1 of the playoffs. But the post season games have tightened a bit with less travel days so if you are really projecting a World Series appearance, you have to manage the rotation prior to the end of the season.
Everyone projects the Cubs to use a four man rotation (with Lackey as being the odd man out).
The NL playoffs for the Cubs looks like this:
Game 1 NLDS Friday Oct 6
Game 2 NLDS Sat Oct 7
Game 3 NLDS Mon Oct 9 (home)
Game 4 NLDS Tue Oct 10 (home)
Game 5 NLDS Thur Oct 12 (6 days after Game 1)
When you look at this set up, the Cubs get two home games. Lester and Hendricks pitch better at home than on the road. So do you put Arrieta and Quintana 1-2?
The next round of the playoffs looks like this:
Game 1 NLCS Sat Oct 14 (2 days after Game 5; 7 days after Game 2 NLDS)
Game 2 NLCS Sun Oct 15
Game 3 NLCS Tue Oct 17
Game 4 NLCS Wed Oct 18
Game 5 NLCS Thur Oct 19 (5 days after Game 1 NLCS)
Game 6 NLCS Sat Oct 20 (6 days after Game 2)
Game 7 NLCS Sun Oct 21 (5 days after Game 3)
The oddity is that the Game 6 pitcher will have more rest than the Game 5 or Game 7 starter.
Would it be prudent to make sure an older pitcher like Lester fit into Game 6?
The World Series looks like this:
Game 1 Tue Oct 24 (2 days after pennant series; 5 days since Game 5 start)
Game 2 Wed Oct 25
Game 3 Fri Oct 26
Game 4 Sat Oct 28
Game 5 Sun Oct 29 (5 days after Game 1)
Game 6 Tue Oct 31 (6 days after Game 2)
Game 7 Wed Nov 1 (5 days after Game 3)
It would appear your Game 5 NLCS starter would be the WS Game 1 starter on 5 days rest.
The Game 1 starter would also be the Game 5 starter on 5 days rest (and would be available in the bullpen for Game 7 like Maddon did with Lester last season).
If you think each round will be very close, then the pitching staff has to determine who should pitch the final game in each series.
You have to work backwards from WS Game 7 with your ace.
Your ace would pitch WS Game 7 and 3; Game 6 and 2 of the NLCS; Game 3 of the NLDS.
Game 3 of the NLDS is a key game coming off two road games in a short series against the Nationals. Perhaps Lester with his better home record and playoff experience in meaningful games would fit in as the #3 pitcher in the Cubs playoff rotation.
The other argument is to give him an extra day of rest during the playoff run.
Lester would then pitch WS Game 6 (on 6 days rest) and 2; NLCS Game 5 (on 5 days rest) and 1 (on 7 days rest) and start Game 2 of the NLDS.
This is the chess game within the game for managers. How you set up your roster and rotation is a critical component on how well your team will perform in the post season. There is no easy answer. Some will say just start your "best" pitchers first because you have to win each round to advance. There is not enough time between series to "reset" the rotation back to Game 1.
People have emphasized the rotation as being the key of this Cub post season since the bullpen continues to be in flux. People are looking for starters to go 7 strong innings, but that has been a rarity all season long.
It will be interesting to see how Maddon and the front office creates its 25 man post season roster. One expects that there may be an additional relief pitcher in the mix (but no one believes Lackey will be that guy).
