After two nail biting victories over the Brewers, the Cubs are crawling to the post season.
Talk has turned to the playoff starting rotation. There are questions for every current Cub starter including the swing man Montgomery.
Lester has not been the sharp playoff ace in his last 3 starts.
Arrieta is coming back from a hamstring injury.
Quintana has good outings and bad innings.
Lackey has been very consistent in his last 4 starts, but not overpowering.
Hendricks seems to be finding his last season groove but does he have the stamina to finish strong?
Montgomery pitched a quality start one-hitter in his last spot start. Maddon seems to be clear that he wants Monty in the bullpen in the playoffs.
Most assume that you want your "ace" to start Game 1 of the playoffs. But the post season games have tightened a bit with less travel days so if you are really projecting a World Series appearance, you have to manage the rotation prior to the end of the season.
Everyone projects the Cubs to use a four man rotation (with Lackey as being the odd man out).
The NL playoffs for the Cubs looks like this:
Game 1 NLDS Friday Oct 6
Game 2 NLDS Sat Oct 7
Game 3 NLDS Mon Oct 9 (home)
Game 4 NLDS Tue Oct 10 (home)
Game 5 NLDS Thur Oct 12 (6 days after Game 1)
When you look at this set up, the Cubs get two home games. Lester and Hendricks pitch better at home than on the road. So do you put Arrieta and Quintana 1-2?
The next round of the playoffs looks like this:
Game 1 NLCS Sat Oct 14 (2 days after Game 5; 7 days after Game 2 NLDS)
Game 2 NLCS Sun Oct 15
Game 3 NLCS Tue Oct 17
Game 4 NLCS Wed Oct 18
Game 5 NLCS Thur Oct 19 (5 days after Game 1 NLCS)
Game 6 NLCS Sat Oct 20 (6 days after Game 2)
Game 7 NLCS Sun Oct 21 (5 days after Game 3)
The oddity is that the Game 6 pitcher will have more rest than the Game 5 or Game 7 starter.
Would it be prudent to make sure an older pitcher like Lester fit into Game 6?
The World Series looks like this:
Game 1 Tue Oct 24 (2 days after pennant series; 5 days since Game 5 start)
Game 2 Wed Oct 25
Game 3 Fri Oct 26
Game 4 Sat Oct 28
Game 5 Sun Oct 29 (5 days after Game 1)
Game 6 Tue Oct 31 (6 days after Game 2)
Game 7 Wed Nov 1 (5 days after Game 3)
It would appear your Game 5 NLCS starter would be the WS Game 1 starter on 5 days rest.
The Game 1 starter would also be the Game 5 starter on 5 days rest (and would be available in the bullpen for Game 7 like Maddon did with Lester last season).
If you think each round will be very close, then the pitching staff has to determine who should pitch the final game in each series.
You have to work backwards from WS Game 7 with your ace.
Your ace would pitch WS Game 7 and 3; Game 6 and 2 of the NLCS; Game 3 of the NLDS.
Game 3 of the NLDS is a key game coming off two road games in a short series against the Nationals. Perhaps Lester with his better home record and playoff experience in meaningful games would fit in as the #3 pitcher in the Cubs playoff rotation.
The other argument is to give him an extra day of rest during the playoff run.
Lester would then pitch WS Game 6 (on 6 days rest) and 2; NLCS Game 5 (on 5 days rest) and 1 (on 7 days rest) and start Game 2 of the NLDS.
This is the chess game within the game for managers. How you set up your roster and rotation is a critical component on how well your team will perform in the post season. There is no easy answer. Some will say just start your "best" pitchers first because you have to win each round to advance. There is not enough time between series to "reset" the rotation back to Game 1.
People have emphasized the rotation as being the key of this Cub post season since the bullpen continues to be in flux. People are looking for starters to go 7 strong innings, but that has been a rarity all season long.
It will be interesting to see how Maddon and the front office creates its 25 man post season roster. One expects that there may be an additional relief pitcher in the mix (but no one believes Lackey will be that guy).
Showing posts with label Quintana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quintana. Show all posts
September 23, 2017
July 13, 2017
AFFORDABLE STARTERS (REVISED POST)
The following column was to be posted tomorrow. It was a discussion on why the White Sox could not trade starter Jose Quintana, since he is the most affordable starting pitcher in baseball. But game changing news today:
CHICAGO (ESPN) The Cubs and White Sox pulled off a blockbuster deal with the White Sox sending lefty Jose Quintana to their crosstown rivals for Cubs top hitting prospect Eloy Jimenez as well as top pitching prospect Dylan Cease.
The Cubs are also sending Single-A infielders Matt Rose and Bryant Flete to the White Sox to complete the deal.
Jimenez, a 20-year-old outfielder, is the No. 5 prospect in baseball, according to ESPN's Keith Law.
Quintana, 28, is 4-8 with a 4.49 ERA this season after going 13-12 with a 3.20 ERA last year. He has a career 3.51 ERA and fills an immediate and long-term need for the Cubs as they're short on starting pitching. They rank eighth in the National League in starter's ERA plus employ pending free agents John Lackey and Jake Arrieta.
"It is always extremely difficult to trade a person and player like Jose Quintana," White Sox general manager Rich Hahn said in a statement, "but difficult as it was, this deal moves us closer to our goal of building a team capable of contending for multiple championships over an extended period of time. Jose, our scouts and coaches throughout the organization deserve a tremendous amount of credit for his development from a minor league free agent signee to one of the most sought-after talents in the game."
The Cubs have been looking to add to their pitching staff, which has performed much worse this season that in last year's World Series run, but they did not want a rental. Quintana is under contract through 2020, earning $8.85 million, $10.5 million and $11.5 million in 2018-20.
The following post still discusses the concept of affordable starters. The Cubs acquisition of Quintana is a huge deal for the defending champs. And it was quite unexpected since the Cubs had been discussing affordable pitchers with the Tigers.
The original post:
MLB general managers favorite buzz phrase is "affordable starters." Every team is looking to acquire affordable, young (cheap), controllable (years on contract before free agency) starters (who can throw 200+ innings per season).
It is like trying to find unicorns in the local forest preserve.
Traditionally, teams developed their own rotations from drafting quality pitchers. However, many teams have abandoned this hit or miss strategy to buy or trade for starting pitchers. A free agent veteran costs more money because there is a proven track record. A minor league prospect also has a track record but no major league experience to determine if his stuff will make it long term in the majors. The best hitters often feast on the weakest pitchers.
Contending teams are always looking to upgrade their pitching staffs in late summer as insurance against injury or dry spells. But teams that are out of contention now want a King's ransom for any pitcher who may have a promising career.
The White Sox are still looking to get two Top 10 prospects and at least one major league ready position player in trade for Jose Quintana. Quintana had been a solid #2 starter behind Chris Sale. He has not gotten the run support from Sox during his career, but he has been a solid performer.
Quintana, 28, in 172 games has a career 50-54, 3.51 ERA, 1.250 WHIP and 21.1 WAR.
This year is stats are down (but lately improving.) He is 4-8, 4.49 ERA, 1.323 WHIP and 0.9 WAR.
The most important feature about him is his team friendly contract. He is signed through the 2020 season for $31.9 million. That is less than 5th starter money these days. His average WAR salary value per season is $20 million. Clearly, he is a bargain starter.
So the White Sox are justified in asking for the moon to trade Quintana. It seems to be a done deal except for a trade partner.
But should the White Sox trade their #1 starter?
Only if you believe Carlos Rodon can be your #1 in the future. Rodon, 24, in 2.5 years has a 19-18 record, 3.93 ERA and 1.414 WHIP and 3.0 WAR.
The saving grace is that the White Sox have built up a massive amount of quality pitching arms in the minors. Of their top 20 prospects, 10 are pitchers: Kopech (2), Giolito (4), Lopez (5), Fulmer (6), Burdi (8), Hansen (10), Dunning (11), Adams (12), Stephens (14) and Flores (19). Beck and Holmberg have already been promoted to the major league roster.
Kopech, Giolito, Lopez and Fulmer will be promoted to the bigs within two years as starters. Burdi's 100 mph stuff projects as the new closer. By 2019, the White Sox could have a 9+ deep starting staff.
But that presumes that none of the prospects have arm injuries or the yips when they face major league hitters. The White Sox coaching staff does have a track record of developing starting pitchers so there is hope very soon for a pitching windfall.
But the Sox could be even stronger if they kept the durable Quintana in the rotation. That way the team does not have to rush a prospect to the major league club. And Quintana is THE affordable, controllable pitcher that any team, including the White Sox, will always look for their roster.
December 27, 2016
QUINTANA MARKET
Jose Quintana is an under-the-radar ace. He is only 27 years old. He is under team control for four more years at a very low salary. In five major league seasons, he has gone 46-46, 3.41 ERA, 1.242 WHIP and 20.5 WAR. By most estimations, he is more valuable trade chip than Chris Sale.
When the White Sox were dealing at the Winter Meetings, everybody was on the table. There were rumors that several teams were interested in Quintana: the Astros, the Mets, and the Nationals. But once Sale was traded to the Red Sox for the best prospects Boston had available, the price for Quintana apparently went up. And once the Nationals seemingly overpaid for CF Adam Eaton, talks on Quintana have become whispers.
There are other teams that have been kicking the tires. The Orioles do not have the top level prospects to cut a deal, and they are unlikely to deal two players off their 25 man roster as part of a package.
The Mets are in a similar position, but they are looking for bullpen studs rather than starting pitching.
Even though the White Sox are rich in minor league starters, GM Rick Hahn continues to stockpile arms. The Mets will not part with Steven Matz in a Quintana deal.
The Rangers are always an odd-fellow in the trade market. The Rangers always prize starting pitchers as acquisition targets. But it is unclear whether the Rangers have enough depth to pull off a multi-player deal.
A team with an potential excess of starting pitchers is the Dodgers. Injuries mowed down its entire rotation. It will start camp with eight or nine legitimate major league starters. Adding Quintana would not make much sense, but the Dodgers could be the conduit of a three team trade to move some of their excess starters to another club in exchange for a starting second basemen.
But the one team that still is trying to get a deal done is the Pirates. The Pirates would love to have a cost controlled starter to throw behind Gerrit Cole. Pittsburgh did re-sign ex-Yankee Nova but the team wants to maintain its budget with players who value exceeds the price. However, moving Andrew McCutchen to the White Sox is not part of the discussion.
The White Sox have received enough fan support to go through the rest of the off-season without making any further moves. But Quintana, because of his highly favorable contract, will continue to draw interest. Ironically, the Cubs main message this off-season has been to acquire a young, controllable starting pitcher. Quintana is the that pitcher.
When the White Sox were dealing at the Winter Meetings, everybody was on the table. There were rumors that several teams were interested in Quintana: the Astros, the Mets, and the Nationals. But once Sale was traded to the Red Sox for the best prospects Boston had available, the price for Quintana apparently went up. And once the Nationals seemingly overpaid for CF Adam Eaton, talks on Quintana have become whispers.
There are other teams that have been kicking the tires. The Orioles do not have the top level prospects to cut a deal, and they are unlikely to deal two players off their 25 man roster as part of a package.
The Mets are in a similar position, but they are looking for bullpen studs rather than starting pitching.
Even though the White Sox are rich in minor league starters, GM Rick Hahn continues to stockpile arms. The Mets will not part with Steven Matz in a Quintana deal.
The Rangers are always an odd-fellow in the trade market. The Rangers always prize starting pitchers as acquisition targets. But it is unclear whether the Rangers have enough depth to pull off a multi-player deal.
A team with an potential excess of starting pitchers is the Dodgers. Injuries mowed down its entire rotation. It will start camp with eight or nine legitimate major league starters. Adding Quintana would not make much sense, but the Dodgers could be the conduit of a three team trade to move some of their excess starters to another club in exchange for a starting second basemen.
But the one team that still is trying to get a deal done is the Pirates. The Pirates would love to have a cost controlled starter to throw behind Gerrit Cole. Pittsburgh did re-sign ex-Yankee Nova but the team wants to maintain its budget with players who value exceeds the price. However, moving Andrew McCutchen to the White Sox is not part of the discussion.
The White Sox have received enough fan support to go through the rest of the off-season without making any further moves. But Quintana, because of his highly favorable contract, will continue to draw interest. Ironically, the Cubs main message this off-season has been to acquire a young, controllable starting pitcher. Quintana is the that pitcher.
July 23, 2016
A KING'S RANSOM
White Sox fans are still sensitive of the infamous 1997 White Flag trade where the team, only two games out of the playoffs, decided to become an aggressive Seller at the trade deadline.
The Sox have always tried to "re-tool" their club instead of rebuilding it with young talent. In the past two off-seasons, writers believed the Sox had made very good acquisitions - - - enough to be very competitive and a playoff team with their fine starting core of pitchers.
But now, 1.5 seasons in the book, the Sox continue to struggle on offense. A shaky bullpen and the lack of deep talent in the minors have gotten GM Rich Hahn putting the "for sale" out early during his long dugout session with the media. He would hear offers on anyone. Which is a complete opposite move from even last week.
So reports quickly pop up that one team has offered "a king's ransom" for Chris Sale. Of course it would. Sale would be the best pitcher on the market. A Cy Young candidate under affordable control through 2019 is a rarity in modern baseball.
MLBtraderumors reported the Rangers are “making [a] serious effort” to pry Sale loose from the White Sox, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. The Dallas Morning news also recently that the two teams were already chatting about Sale (and Quintana, too) before it became apparent that Chicago was leaning toward selling.
There’s “no indication” as yet whether these talks are going to go anywhere, Sullivan notes, so it doesn’t sound as if there’s anything building in the immediate term. Indeed, Grant adds that no “serious talks” have occurred as of this point. The key takeaway seems to be that Texas at least plans to take a real shot at pulling off a blockbuster.
Indications are that Chicago would have interest in Joey Gallo and Jurickson Profar in any scenario involving Sale. We’ve heard those two names quite a bit of late, and obviously the pair carries a lot of trade value. Still, it’s quite likely that Texas would need to add some real talent to that package to get the White Sox to budge.
Sale, after all, is just 27 years of age, remains under control at cheap rates through 2019, and carries a 3.18 ERA over a league-leading 133 frames on the year. Particularly with the contracts factored in, Sale is one of the most valuable single pitching assets in all of baseball — with Quintana not far behind him.
If Sale and Quintana is on the market, people will be quite upset if the Cubs, who have the best prospects in the game, do not get Sale. But many believe the White Sox will never help the Cubs win a World Championship no matter the package the Cubs would offer.
The Cubs could make the White Sox young in a hurry. You could package a combination of OF Soler, OF McKinney, SS Torres and maybe C Schwarber or IN Baez to capture Sale and another young starting pitcher from the Sox. Sale is an ace pitcher that would put any playoff team over the top.
I have figured that Sale is probably worth a package of seven quality prospects. (Look at the Shelby Miller deal as a comparable.)
The Cubs have to look at it this way: if a NL team like the Nationals get Sale, then their rotation becomes dominate in a short series.
And the fact the Cubs have been looking for a controllable starting pitcher - - - as insurance against Hammels, Lackey or even Arrieta faltering in September - - - - why not go out and get the best?!
It could be all a pipe dream. The idea the White Sox will trade its best player will upset the fan base to no end. The Sox could be putting out the big names to see what other teams are willing to part - - - intelligence to make deals for other talent. But again, if the White Sox get a lion's share of the Cubs young talent - - - fans may think they got the better of the deal.
The odds are that Sale and Quintana are not going to be traded by the deadline. Other position players like Abreu, Frazier, or Eaton could be gone in a flash. But since starting pitching is so valuable today, moving aces is very hard to accomplish.
The Sox have always tried to "re-tool" their club instead of rebuilding it with young talent. In the past two off-seasons, writers believed the Sox had made very good acquisitions - - - enough to be very competitive and a playoff team with their fine starting core of pitchers.
But now, 1.5 seasons in the book, the Sox continue to struggle on offense. A shaky bullpen and the lack of deep talent in the minors have gotten GM Rich Hahn putting the "for sale" out early during his long dugout session with the media. He would hear offers on anyone. Which is a complete opposite move from even last week.
So reports quickly pop up that one team has offered "a king's ransom" for Chris Sale. Of course it would. Sale would be the best pitcher on the market. A Cy Young candidate under affordable control through 2019 is a rarity in modern baseball.
MLBtraderumors reported the Rangers are “making [a] serious effort” to pry Sale loose from the White Sox, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. The Dallas Morning news also recently that the two teams were already chatting about Sale (and Quintana, too) before it became apparent that Chicago was leaning toward selling.
There’s “no indication” as yet whether these talks are going to go anywhere, Sullivan notes, so it doesn’t sound as if there’s anything building in the immediate term. Indeed, Grant adds that no “serious talks” have occurred as of this point. The key takeaway seems to be that Texas at least plans to take a real shot at pulling off a blockbuster.
Indications are that Chicago would have interest in Joey Gallo and Jurickson Profar in any scenario involving Sale. We’ve heard those two names quite a bit of late, and obviously the pair carries a lot of trade value. Still, it’s quite likely that Texas would need to add some real talent to that package to get the White Sox to budge.
Sale, after all, is just 27 years of age, remains under control at cheap rates through 2019, and carries a 3.18 ERA over a league-leading 133 frames on the year. Particularly with the contracts factored in, Sale is one of the most valuable single pitching assets in all of baseball — with Quintana not far behind him.
If Sale and Quintana is on the market, people will be quite upset if the Cubs, who have the best prospects in the game, do not get Sale. But many believe the White Sox will never help the Cubs win a World Championship no matter the package the Cubs would offer.
The Cubs could make the White Sox young in a hurry. You could package a combination of OF Soler, OF McKinney, SS Torres and maybe C Schwarber or IN Baez to capture Sale and another young starting pitcher from the Sox. Sale is an ace pitcher that would put any playoff team over the top.
I have figured that Sale is probably worth a package of seven quality prospects. (Look at the Shelby Miller deal as a comparable.)
The Cubs have to look at it this way: if a NL team like the Nationals get Sale, then their rotation becomes dominate in a short series.
And the fact the Cubs have been looking for a controllable starting pitcher - - - as insurance against Hammels, Lackey or even Arrieta faltering in September - - - - why not go out and get the best?!
It could be all a pipe dream. The idea the White Sox will trade its best player will upset the fan base to no end. The Sox could be putting out the big names to see what other teams are willing to part - - - intelligence to make deals for other talent. But again, if the White Sox get a lion's share of the Cubs young talent - - - fans may think they got the better of the deal.
The odds are that Sale and Quintana are not going to be traded by the deadline. Other position players like Abreu, Frazier, or Eaton could be gone in a flash. But since starting pitching is so valuable today, moving aces is very hard to accomplish.
May 4, 2016
BIG DIVDENDS
In the past Chicago teams were too loyal to their veterans past their prime.
With John Danks release, it shows that the mission is simple: win every game.
And the White Sox and Cubs have been doing it like Industrial Revolution Machines.
The pitching staffs have not allowed losing streaks:
Arrieta: 6-0, 0.84 ERA, 0.744 WHIP, 2.1 WAR
Lester: 2-1, 1.83 ERA, 0.932 WHIP, 1.0 WAR
Hammel:4-0, 1.24 ERA, 1.069 WHIP, 1.2 WAR
Sale: 6-0, 1.66 ERA, 0.808 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
Quintana: 4-1, 1.40 ERA, 0.983 WHIP, 1.6 WAR
Latos: 4-0, 1.84 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
That is incredible starting pitching. Sale and Quintana are the best 1-2 combo in major league baseball.
But that is not all. Two under the radar changes have improved the clubs defense.
The White Sox signed Austin Jackson to play CF because Adam Eaton was a horrible fielder. But by Eaton to RF, it has improved the White Sox defense dramatically. Eaton was a negative CF but now he has a plus 75 defense runs saved/year ratio. His dWAR has gone from -1.1 in 2015 to 1.4 WAR in 2016.
The Cubs made a small adjustment on positioning their center fielder. By moving Dexer Fowler deeper in the outfield, it has made a clear improvement in his defense, too. He now has a 0.2 dWAR compared to a negative 1.0 WAR from 2015. He has gone from a -10 to a +12 in defense runs saved/year.
The little adjustments are paying huge dividends.
The White Sox are 19-8, 4 games ahead of the Tigers.
The Cubs are 19-6, 5 games ahead of the Pirates and 7 games ahead of the Cardinals.
The Cubs also have a crazy run differential of +89, more than double the next highest team.
Baseball is going to be fun this summer in Chicago.
With John Danks release, it shows that the mission is simple: win every game.
And the White Sox and Cubs have been doing it like Industrial Revolution Machines.
The pitching staffs have not allowed losing streaks:
Arrieta: 6-0, 0.84 ERA, 0.744 WHIP, 2.1 WAR
Lester: 2-1, 1.83 ERA, 0.932 WHIP, 1.0 WAR
Hammel:4-0, 1.24 ERA, 1.069 WHIP, 1.2 WAR
Sale: 6-0, 1.66 ERA, 0.808 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
Quintana: 4-1, 1.40 ERA, 0.983 WHIP, 1.6 WAR
Latos: 4-0, 1.84 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
That is incredible starting pitching. Sale and Quintana are the best 1-2 combo in major league baseball.
But that is not all. Two under the radar changes have improved the clubs defense.
The White Sox signed Austin Jackson to play CF because Adam Eaton was a horrible fielder. But by Eaton to RF, it has improved the White Sox defense dramatically. Eaton was a negative CF but now he has a plus 75 defense runs saved/year ratio. His dWAR has gone from -1.1 in 2015 to 1.4 WAR in 2016.
The Cubs made a small adjustment on positioning their center fielder. By moving Dexer Fowler deeper in the outfield, it has made a clear improvement in his defense, too. He now has a 0.2 dWAR compared to a negative 1.0 WAR from 2015. He has gone from a -10 to a +12 in defense runs saved/year.
The little adjustments are paying huge dividends.
The White Sox are 19-8, 4 games ahead of the Tigers.
The Cubs are 19-6, 5 games ahead of the Pirates and 7 games ahead of the Cardinals.
The Cubs also have a crazy run differential of +89, more than double the next highest team.
Baseball is going to be fun this summer in Chicago.
November 14, 2015
QUINTANA THE KEEPER
The White Sox have a wealth of pitching. Pundits want to trade Jose Quintana for missing offensive pieces. But does that make sense? No.
Quintana, 26, is signed through 2020 on a team friendly deal: 5 years/$43.5 million.
Quintana had a 4.0 WAR last season, and a career 15.3 WAR. As such, he has outperformed his past contract value.
If the White Sox ever gave him even normal run support, Quintana could have been an easy 18 game winner.
With Jeff Samardzija set to reject the qualifying offer, the White Sox rotation is still good but not as great as it was last spring: Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Danks and Erik Johnson (with rookie Frankie Montas or new pick up but often injured Jacob Turner in the mix for the 6th starter spot).
This shows that Quintana is an extremely valuable #2 starter to bridge to Rodon, who may have a sophomore slump as the league adjusts to him, and Danks, who still is on a career downward spiral.
Quintana, 26, is signed through 2020 on a team friendly deal: 5 years/$43.5 million.
Quintana had a 4.0 WAR last season, and a career 15.3 WAR. As such, he has outperformed his past contract value.
If the White Sox ever gave him even normal run support, Quintana could have been an easy 18 game winner.
With Jeff Samardzija set to reject the qualifying offer, the White Sox rotation is still good but not as great as it was last spring: Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Danks and Erik Johnson (with rookie Frankie Montas or new pick up but often injured Jacob Turner in the mix for the 6th starter spot).
This shows that Quintana is an extremely valuable #2 starter to bridge to Rodon, who may have a sophomore slump as the league adjusts to him, and Danks, who still is on a career downward spiral.
June 6, 2014
THE LOSS
When the White Sox gave up five (5) unearned runs in the 5-2 loss to the Dodgers, pitcher Carlos Quintana got nailed with the loss.
But clearly, Quintana was the cause for the team loss. He made pitches that were hit to his fielders, who made the actual errors, putting runners in scoring position and eventually scoring.
Like quarterbacks and presidents who get too much credit when things are going well, pitchers get too much blame when things go wrong.
The debate about the value of the "win" statistic for pitchers is as apt for the value of the "loss" statistic for pitchers. There is more than one variable involved in the decision on who wins a game. Jeff Samardzija has pitched well enough to win 10 games like Mark Buerhle, but the Shark got no run support from the Cubs. but Samardzija is tagged with losses in those games.
One can weakly argue that a pitcher could be perfect and shut out the opponent to avoid the loss. But that is nearly impossible task as baseball has tweaked its rules to increase the amount of offense.
A better argument is that the win-loss statistic should be purely a "team stat." A pitcher should be primarily judged on his ERA, WHIP and IP. Except, historically, pitchers did throw complete games (there was only a 2 or 3 man rotation and no specialized bullpens) so a hurler's W-L record did accurately reflect his performance.
But a starter in order to qualify for a win must throw 5 innings; but can get tagged with a loss by not getting out of the first. A relief pitcher can get one out and get the win or the loss. There was once a proposal to allow the official scorer to give the "win" to the best pitcher on the winning team and the "loss" to the worst pitcher on the losing team. But that brought opinion into objective baseball statistics so the proposal was quickly dropped.
What came as a pitching stat change was the "save," a statistic that illogically values the final three outs more importantly than the first three outs of a game. It gave washed up starters the opportunity to become millionaire closers. A game can be won or lost in any inning, not just the 9th.
If a win is a nebulous pitching performance statistic, then the save is probably more over rated than a win. In fact, a closer can have a "blown save" then get the win if his team comes back to break the tie and win the game. In essence, the winning closer is rewarded for his bad performance.
The win and loss statistics for pitchers are not complete measurement of a player's performance. However, the historical basis for the W-L record of pitchers is still used as a means of comparing pitchers today and pitchers from yesterday. No one today can fathom Cy Young's 511 pitching victories. Most pundits believe we may never see another 300 game winner in the majors (average 15 wins over 15 seasons).
But clearly, Quintana was the cause for the team loss. He made pitches that were hit to his fielders, who made the actual errors, putting runners in scoring position and eventually scoring.
Like quarterbacks and presidents who get too much credit when things are going well, pitchers get too much blame when things go wrong.
The debate about the value of the "win" statistic for pitchers is as apt for the value of the "loss" statistic for pitchers. There is more than one variable involved in the decision on who wins a game. Jeff Samardzija has pitched well enough to win 10 games like Mark Buerhle, but the Shark got no run support from the Cubs. but Samardzija is tagged with losses in those games.
One can weakly argue that a pitcher could be perfect and shut out the opponent to avoid the loss. But that is nearly impossible task as baseball has tweaked its rules to increase the amount of offense.
A better argument is that the win-loss statistic should be purely a "team stat." A pitcher should be primarily judged on his ERA, WHIP and IP. Except, historically, pitchers did throw complete games (there was only a 2 or 3 man rotation and no specialized bullpens) so a hurler's W-L record did accurately reflect his performance.
But a starter in order to qualify for a win must throw 5 innings; but can get tagged with a loss by not getting out of the first. A relief pitcher can get one out and get the win or the loss. There was once a proposal to allow the official scorer to give the "win" to the best pitcher on the winning team and the "loss" to the worst pitcher on the losing team. But that brought opinion into objective baseball statistics so the proposal was quickly dropped.
What came as a pitching stat change was the "save," a statistic that illogically values the final three outs more importantly than the first three outs of a game. It gave washed up starters the opportunity to become millionaire closers. A game can be won or lost in any inning, not just the 9th.
If a win is a nebulous pitching performance statistic, then the save is probably more over rated than a win. In fact, a closer can have a "blown save" then get the win if his team comes back to break the tie and win the game. In essence, the winning closer is rewarded for his bad performance.
The win and loss statistics for pitchers are not complete measurement of a player's performance. However, the historical basis for the W-L record of pitchers is still used as a means of comparing pitchers today and pitchers from yesterday. No one today can fathom Cy Young's 511 pitching victories. Most pundits believe we may never see another 300 game winner in the majors (average 15 wins over 15 seasons).
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