Showing posts with label Hendricks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hendricks. Show all posts

July 25, 2018

SECOND HALF ISSUES

The Cubs surged into first before the AS break, but now have begun to wobble in the heat of July.

Kyle Hendricks is not the old Hendricks, a pinpoint professor in the art of pitching. Teams have finally figured him out. An 88 mph fastball is not his out pitch. Batters are now sitting on change ups that are in the hitting zone. As Hendricks relies more on off-speed stuff on the corners, umpires are taking away is major advantage by calling more balls. Patient hitters and smaller strike calls is making Hendricks an average pitcher. It could change if he uses his fastball more to keep the batters honest and off-guard.

Kris Bryant was pulled from the line-up because of his shoulder issue. He said before the ASG that it was an injury that he will have to deal with throughout the season. But word is that he cannot even swing the bat. That means a probable DL stint and the return of Bote at third. Having Bryant out of the line-up puts more pressure on Rizzo, who is trying to hit his way out of his own personal slump by leading off. But Maddon will have to move Rizzo out of the #1 spot to increase scoring chances if Bryant goes on the DL.

Yu Darvish is becoming a real bad issue. The Cubs were happy that Darvish  yesterday threw 16 pitches off the mound after three weeks of rest. Sixteen pitches is not a start. It seems that Darvish's progress has been painstakingly slow. The front office is counting more on Drew Smyly coming off Tommy John surgery than Darvish. Montgomery was great when he first took Darvish's spot in the rotation, but now after a half dozen starts, he is falling back into being an average starter (which ironically is better than the Cubs original 4th and 5th starters).

Javy Baez is trying to do too much. He got throw out again for aggressive baserunning. He needs to calm down and let the team win games. Baez is the Cubs current MVP. He is the only true five tool player on the roster who can make exciting plays at the plate and in the field. But Baez has a history of coming unglued at the bat.  Let us see if he has matured enough to adjust to his new leader-by-example role.

The bullpen was re-tooled in order to be ready for the post-season. Brandon Morrow was the new closer, and Maddon kept him on the light work load. But Morrow got hurt anyway (which is his M.O.). The rotation has been sub-par all year, with very few quality starts. More times than not, starters are barely throwing five innings - - - which taxes the bullpen to the extreme that now four different position players have thrown in relief. Jesse Chavez acquisition was needed to find a "rubber" arm veteran who can do long relief, short relief, close and spot start. But asking Chavez to be the bullpen godsend is asking too much.

The Cubs offense still runs in feast or famine mode. They score a lot of runs, or they score very little. Consistency in the batting order could be blamed for the hot and cold mentality, but Maddon would disagree. He wants to use his entire roster to keep them fresh and in the game. But since the ASG, he has literally given up midway through 2 games (for losses).

The Cubs probably need to make a big move at the trade deadline, but they do not have any great minor league prospects to trade. And Theo and Jed are in love with "their" guys to trade away Happ, Schwarber or Almora.

September 23, 2017

THE REAL ROTATION

After two nail biting victories over the Brewers, the Cubs are crawling to the post season.

Talk has turned to the playoff starting rotation. There are questions for every current Cub starter including the swing man Montgomery.

Lester has not been the sharp playoff ace in his last 3 starts.
Arrieta is coming back from a hamstring injury.
Quintana has good outings and bad innings.
Lackey has been very consistent in his last 4 starts, but not overpowering.
Hendricks seems to be finding his last season groove but does he have the stamina to finish strong?

Montgomery pitched a quality start one-hitter in his last spot start. Maddon seems to be clear that he wants Monty in the bullpen in the playoffs.

Most assume that you want your "ace" to start Game 1 of the playoffs. But the post season games have tightened a bit with less travel days so if you are really projecting a World Series appearance, you have to manage the rotation prior to the end of the season.

Everyone projects the Cubs to use a four man rotation (with Lackey as being the odd man out).

The NL playoffs for the Cubs looks like this:

Game 1 NLDS Friday Oct 6
Game 2 NLDS Sat Oct 7
Game 3 NLDS Mon Oct 9 (home)
Game 4 NLDS Tue Oct 10 (home)
Game 5 NLDS Thur Oct 12  (6 days after Game 1)

When you look at this set up, the Cubs get two home games. Lester and Hendricks pitch better at home than on the road. So do you put Arrieta and Quintana 1-2?

The next round of the playoffs looks like this:

Game 1 NLCS  Sat Oct 14 (2 days after Game 5; 7 days after Game 2 NLDS)
Game 2 NLCS Sun Oct 15
Game 3 NLCS Tue Oct 17
Game 4 NLCS Wed Oct 18
Game 5 NLCS Thur Oct 19 (5 days after Game 1 NLCS)
Game 6 NLCS Sat Oct 20 (6 days after Game 2)
Game 7 NLCS Sun Oct 21 (5 days after Game 3)

The oddity is that the Game 6 pitcher will have more rest than the Game 5 or Game 7 starter.
Would it be prudent to make sure an older pitcher like Lester fit into Game 6?

The World Series looks like this:

Game 1 Tue Oct 24 (2 days after pennant series; 5 days since Game 5 start)
Game 2 Wed Oct 25
Game 3 Fri Oct 26
Game 4 Sat Oct 28
Game 5 Sun Oct 29 (5 days after Game 1)
Game 6 Tue Oct 31 (6 days after Game 2)
Game 7 Wed Nov 1 (5 days after Game 3)

It would appear your Game 5 NLCS starter would be the WS Game 1 starter on 5 days rest.
The Game 1 starter would also be the Game 5 starter on 5 days rest (and would be available in the bullpen for Game 7 like Maddon did with Lester last season).

If you think each round will be very close, then the pitching staff has to determine who should pitch the final game in each series.

You have to work backwards from WS Game 7 with your ace.
Your ace would pitch WS Game 7 and 3; Game 6 and  2 of the NLCS; Game 3 of the NLDS.
Game 3 of the NLDS is a key game coming off two road games in a short series against the Nationals. Perhaps Lester with his better home record and playoff experience in meaningful games would fit in as the #3 pitcher in the Cubs playoff rotation.

The other argument is to give him an extra day of rest during the playoff run.
Lester would then pitch WS Game 6 (on 6 days rest) and 2; NLCS Game 5 (on 5 days rest) and 1 (on 7 days rest) and start Game 2 of the NLDS.

This is the chess game within the game for managers. How you set up your roster and rotation is a critical component on how well your team will perform in the post season. There is no easy answer. Some will say just start your "best" pitchers first because you have to win each round to advance. There is not enough time between series to "reset" the rotation back to Game 1.

People have emphasized the rotation as being the key of this Cub post season since the bullpen continues to be in flux. People are looking for starters to go 7 strong innings, but that has been a rarity all season long.

It will be interesting to see how Maddon and the front office creates its 25 man post season roster. One expects that there may be an additional relief pitcher in the mix (but no one believes Lackey will be that guy).

May 7, 2016

PESSIMISTS

After the opening victory over the Nationals, the Cubs were  21-6. A 77.8 win percentage leads the majors. On pace for a record 126 wins. Even if the team goes .500 for the rest of the season, the Cubs will finish with 96 wins.

All is well on the North Side.

The stat of the night was the fact that the Cubs have won 33 of Kyle Hendricks' 50 games as a starter. That is a 66.0 winning percentage. That is incredibly good for a fifth starter. In his 50 Cub starts, Hendricks' record is 17-11, 3.45 ERA, 1.123 WHIP and 5.1 WAR. One would be hard pressed to find a better fifth starter.

But a certain segment of the fan base and media are pessimists. They worry about the Cubs pitching as compared to the young arms of the Mets. They may be uncomfortable with the soft stuff of Hendricks, but so long as he has confidence in his pitches, he can paint the corners with his two-seamer. They worry about John Lackey's age and rough couple of games for the Cubs. Lackey brings to the mound a mean streak of a junkyard dog. This compliments John Lester's apparent inner anger every time he pitches. This is in a stark contrast to Jake Arrieta's zen like machine performances.

So far the Cubs starting rotation has been solid.

But there is a probability that one or more of the starters will get hurt or go through a mid season slump (most nominate Hammel). The one major complaint against the front office is that Theo-Jed have not drafted and developed a starting pitcher (Hendrick is a carryover from the prior regime.) Even though the Cubs have used 47 percent of their draft choices on pitchers, it is the quality young hitters that have been the beacons to success.

There was a rebuild theory that you drafted the best bats early (since they are easier to project at the major league level) over pitching (because of potential arm issues) then buy starters in the open market when you are ready to compete. You get your fielders under cheap control while you pay a premium for known, quality starting pitching.

But everyone is looking for pitching since it can stop quality hitting. There is a shortage of quality guys. That is why the Mets home grown armada of starters is the envy of the league.

So far, the Cubs have weathered injuries to their platoon left fielder, starting catcher, and 5th outfielder. The pitching staff has not been stressed to date because the Cubs offense continues to set a ridiculous pace of a plus 96 run differential.

But the problem in last post-season was that the Cubs only had two trusted starters, Arrieta and Lester. Lackey was brought in to be that post season #3, but his age and a long day game summer season could put him into the bad Hammel camp. No one knows if Hendricks can handle the pressure of being a #3 post season pitcher (which could lead to being a game 7 starter). There is no one in Iowa (AAA) ready, willing or able to be a #3 starter in the majors. No one wants to the Cubs to part with their young stud talent (Baez, Almora, McKinney, Contreras) for starting pitching, but you never can tell when a championship window opens and closes. Ask the Nationals about that.

March 27, 2015

EDWIN PROBLEM

The fallout from not getting Anibal Sanchez continues to haunt the Cubs since the front office knee jerked a long term free agent deal with Edwin Jackson.  Jackson has been a major disappointment, and the butt of fan remarks, most recently in his ability to find the Cubs old spring training facility on the day he was supposed to start against the A's.

The rotation appears to be set. Lester, Arrieta, Hammel, T. Woods and Hendricks. Jackson is clearly the odd starter out. Whether he will take the old Carlos Villaneuva role of being a long reliever-spot starter is unclear since he has said in the past that he is only a starting pitcher.

The Cubs still owe Jackson $26 million for the next two years. That is a huge dead money contract if the team cuts him. The Cubs cannot mysteriously DL him since he a veteran and the union does not teams messing with veterans under contract. The pressure is on the Cubs to keep him on the 25 man roster. The problem is that the bullpen is already filled with better arms.  Justin Grimm is out of options so he has to stay in middle relief. Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop and Jason Motte are the back end of the pen, along with Neil Ramirez and probably lefties Phil Coke and Felix Doubront, who is also out of options.

With the Cubs apparently keeping Welington Castillo, who is also out of options, as the third catcher, there is no space to keep Jackson on the 25 man roster.  Even in an era of more pitchers having arm issues, there has been no buzz lately in the trade rumor department on Jackson.

The Cubs have claimed the Kris Bryant situation is not about the money, but in reality it is. Adding one year of control means one year more without having to pay a large free agency deal at Bryant's peak earning years. However, if Bryant is a superstar player, play him now and pay him in due course since baseball history is littered with teams missing the playoffs by a single game.

If it is about "not" eating the money, Jackson will be shoehorned on the roster at the expense of another pitcher. That will not sit well with Cub fans.


September 16, 2013

PROSPECTS OF THE YEAR

The Chicago Cubs announced their minor leaguers of the year.

To no one's surprise, Javier Baez was Player of the Year, and right-hander Kyle Hendricks was the Pitcher of the Year.

Baez, 20,  combined to bat .282 with 34 doubles, four triples, 37 home runs and 111 RBIs in 130 games between Class A Daytona and Double-A Tennessee in his second full professional season. His 111 RBIs and 75 extra-base hits led Minor League baseball, and he ranked second in home runs.

Baez began the year with Daytona and hit .274 with 19 doubles, four triples, 17 home runs and 57 RBIs in 76 games. He became the second player in the 94-year history of the Florida State League to hit four home runs in a game.

Promoted to Class AA Tennessee on July 6, Baez batted .294 with 15 doubles, 20 home runs and 54 RBIs in 54 games. Even though he played in less than half of the Southern League's schedule, he ranked fourth in the league in home runs.

Baez has recorded a .934 fielding percentage in 203 games at shortstop.
Hendricks, 23, combined to go 13-4 with a 2.00 ERA and a complete-game shutout in 27 starts between Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa. He struck out 128 batters and walked 34 over 166 1/3 innings pitched. The right-hander limited opponents to a .229 batting average.

In 21 starts at Tennessee, Hendricks was 10-3 with a 1.85 ERA and earned Southern League midseason All-Star honors. He gave up four earned runs over 43 innings in his final seven starts with the Smokies. Hendricks went 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA in six starts for Iowa, and he held opponents to a .235 batting average.

The right-hander was acquired from the Rangers, along with infielder Christian Villanueva, for pitcher Ryan Dempster in July 2012.

It is expected that both Baez and Hendricks will start 2014 in Class AAA Iowa. Baez position may still be at shortstop since Iowa's regular shortstop, Donnie Murphy, could be the Cubs starting third baseman in 2014. Depending on what the Cubs do in the off season in regard to signing free agent starting pitchers (with the intent to flip them at the trade deadline), Hendricks could be the Cubs #6 or #7 starter, on call for promotion if a major league starter goes down or is traded.  Just like Chris Rusin this season, Hendrick is coming up to the age of either making it to the majors or falling short. One would expect he would get an opportunity by mid-2014 with the Cubs.

August 1, 2012

SURPRISE MOVE

Maybe Ryan Dempster just wanted a better landing spot for a contender than the Atlanta Braves. He got it with the Texas Rangers, who have the players to continue to go deep in the post-season if their pitching holds up. Injuries to two starters made Texas make a move to find a quality arm for the pennant chase.



The Rangers acquired Dempster  for Class A minor league third baseman Christian Villanueva  and Class A minor league right-hander Kyle Hendricks.  

Dempster was drafted by the Rangers in the third  in 1995 but he was traded to the Marlins in 1996.  Converted from being a closer,  Dempster was a fairly consistent starter for the Cubs. Since  acquiring 10-and-5 rights, Dempster had to approve the trade to the Rangers, which in some respects was a surprise since all indications was he wanted to move to the Dodgers.

Despite a low win total, Dempster posted a 2.25 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 in 104 innings with the Cubs this year.  He's earning $14MM -- nearly $5MM between now and the end of the season -- and will hit free agency this fall. It was clear that the Cubs would not tender him a contract at the end of the season, so there would be no compensation pick in the next draft. So the Cubs really needed to trade Dempster and receive something in return.

Villanueva, 21, has a .285/.356/.421 batting line in 425 plate appearances with Class A Myrtle Beach this year. The third baseman entered the 2012 season as the 100th-best prospect in MLB, according to Baseball America. He has a .286/.350/.438 batting line in four minor league seasons. However, the Rangers have another third base prospect, Mike Olt, which they believe is better than Villanueva. In a classic case of trading a prospect blocked at his position, the Rangers traded for Dempster, a proven commodity. 

The Cubs have been recently talking about shoring up the lack of depth in the minor league system, especially at third base. Villanueva shows some offensive power but has a weak fielding percentage at third base.  In some respects, he is in the mold of Cub minor leaguer Josh Vitters.

But the key to the deal is the pitching prospect. Hendricks, 22, has a 2.82 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9 in 130 2/3 innings over the course of 20 starts at Myrtle Beach. The 6'2" right-hander has 150 strikeouts and just 21 walks in 166 1/3 innings since being selected in the eighth round of the 2011 draft.

On paper, this looks like a good deal for the Cubs. The two prospects will take at least 3 to 4 years in the minor league development ranks before they have a chance to make the major league roster. Project late 2015. The Cubs front office has stressed that it wants to go young and acquire more "assets" under their control. The trade of four major leaguers for five minor league prospects is not quite the volume that most observers expected from the Cubs. And there were no immediate "impact" players in any of the Cub deals.

In fact, most writers believe the Cubs had a better deal with the Braves for Randall Delgado, a major league ready pitcher.