In the realistic post-season crystal ball of the Cubs off-season, there are several hard truths:
One, the Cubs baseball front office has less to spend than most people realize. I estimate that from press reports and current contract obligations, the Cubs can only spend around $25 million on new players. The acquisition of three AAA relievers prior to the 40 man deadline does not mean that the Cubs bullpen and pitching issues have been resolved for 2016.
Two, with a tight payroll cap, the Cubs are extremely unlikely to find a good CF/lead off hitter on the open market. The internal solution of either Albert Almora or Billy McKinney are years off in the future. The most likely scenario now is that the Cubs will have to move veteran salary off the books in order to free up cash to sign free agents to fill more urgent needs.
Three, as the post-season clearly showed, pitching is a priority for the Cubs to compete in 2016. The Cubs need to find two good starting pitchers to compliment Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta.
On the free agent pitching front, the Cubs cannot and will not throw hundreds of millions of dollars on Price, Zimmerman, Greinke or Cueto. In fact, more teams are going to stray away from the top tier guys to bid up second tier veteran arms. The Cubs really cannot afford a bidding war in this market.
The Cubs offer a young club with upswing potential and playoff experience is a benefit to some free agents looking for a good landing spot.
In culling the lists, I believe the two best fits of free agent pitchers for the Cubs this off-season are J.A. Happ and Mike Leake. Their acquisition basically eats up the payroll budget as it current stands without other roster moves.
Happ, 33, was traded at the deadline to the Pirates. He helped stabilize their rotation. He went 11-8 in 32 starts with a 3.41 ERA and 3.0 WAR. He made $6.7 million last season. He is projected to sign for either 2 years/$20 million or 3 years/$30 million.
Leake, 28, was traded by the Reds to the Giants at the deadline. He struggled a little in San Francisco. In 30 starts, he compiled a 11-10 record, 3.70 ERA and 2.9 WAR. He made $9.775 million last season. He is projected to sign for 5 years/$80 million.
Happ and Leake would offer a consistent #3 and #4 starters for a rotation that would consist of LHP Lester, RHP Arrieta, LHP Happ, RHP Leake and RHP Hendricks.
UPDATE: Happ signed a three-year deal valued at $36 million to return to
Toronto, where he pitched for two-plus seasons from 2012-14. While far
from a model of consistency throughout his nine-year Major League
career, Happ boosted his stock with a strong finish to his 2015
campaign. After being traded from Seattle to Pittsburgh in July, Happ
went 7-2 with a 1.85 ERA over his final 11 starts. He signed for about $2 million/ per season more than projected but he appears to take the place of Price in the rotation.
Showing posts with label Leake. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Leake. Show all posts
November 27, 2015
November 7, 2015
REALITY OF STAFF
Cub fans may think the front office has a blank check to spend in 2016 because of the strong finish to the 2015 season.
Think again.
The Cubs know they have two top tier starters in Lester and Arrieta. They have the top 2 rotation slots filled already.
The Cubs need #3 and #4 starters. And the business side will not allow the team to overspend on those two positions.
Besides, the Cubs have a few positional questions (CF, for example), and will have to re-tool half of the bullpen, again.
So those who have their sites on the Cubs landing Price, Zimmerman or Greinke in free agency, forget about it. The Cubs are not going to spend another $150 to $210 million on another arm.
It is more likely the Cubs target pitchers like Mike Leake or Scott Kazmir.
Leake, 27, went 11-10, 3.70 ERA, 1.161 WHIP and 2.9 WAR for two clubs in 2015. He was paid $9.775 million.
Kazmir, 31, went 7-11, 3.10 ERA, 1.208 WHIP, 3.3 WAR in 2015. He was paid $13 million.
One would expect these pitchers to command $12-15 million per season (depending upon discount for number of years of the contract).
Signing both these pitchers would be nice, but would probably eat up the entire off season FA budget. One has to realize that the Cubs do not have a real good lead off/center field option on their current roster. Fowler was the catalyst for the Cubs offense. When he did well, the team did well. I do not see the Cubs trying to move an infielder (Castro or Baez) into center to fill a need in-house. The transition to center field is a tough position to learn on the fly.
At best, the Cubs will sign one second tier starter, use Hendricks at #4 and try to cobble together a fifth starter from the minors during spring training.
Think again.
The Cubs know they have two top tier starters in Lester and Arrieta. They have the top 2 rotation slots filled already.
The Cubs need #3 and #4 starters. And the business side will not allow the team to overspend on those two positions.
Besides, the Cubs have a few positional questions (CF, for example), and will have to re-tool half of the bullpen, again.
So those who have their sites on the Cubs landing Price, Zimmerman or Greinke in free agency, forget about it. The Cubs are not going to spend another $150 to $210 million on another arm.
It is more likely the Cubs target pitchers like Mike Leake or Scott Kazmir.
Leake, 27, went 11-10, 3.70 ERA, 1.161 WHIP and 2.9 WAR for two clubs in 2015. He was paid $9.775 million.
Kazmir, 31, went 7-11, 3.10 ERA, 1.208 WHIP, 3.3 WAR in 2015. He was paid $13 million.
One would expect these pitchers to command $12-15 million per season (depending upon discount for number of years of the contract).
Signing both these pitchers would be nice, but would probably eat up the entire off season FA budget. One has to realize that the Cubs do not have a real good lead off/center field option on their current roster. Fowler was the catalyst for the Cubs offense. When he did well, the team did well. I do not see the Cubs trying to move an infielder (Castro or Baez) into center to fill a need in-house. The transition to center field is a tough position to learn on the fly.
At best, the Cubs will sign one second tier starter, use Hendricks at #4 and try to cobble together a fifth starter from the minors during spring training.
July 24, 2015
HOLDING TOO LONG
There are times when general managers hold on to their players too long. Trying to trade or sell an asset is best at its peak value. For Starlin Castro and Javy Baez, it was last winter. Castro has been slumping badly this year, and his fielding is just as suspect. Baez got hurt but prior to that he was demoted to AAA.
ESPN's Jayson Stark reported that the Cubs have offered Castro and Baez to the Phillies for pitcher Cole Hamels, who has three years and a lot of money owed on his deal.
Stark added, however, that the Phillies are not enthralled with either player. But the Cubs remain determined in their efforts to trade for Hamels.
"I don't think they'll be in the rental market," the executive who has spoken to the Cubs told Stark. "So the value to them, with Hamels, is the three years [left on his contract]. This isn't just about selling out to go for the wild card. It's about getting ahead of [the free-agent ace market] this winter."
The Phillies are a difficult front office to deal with in trades. They ask for too much. But the problem with Hamels is his contract. Very few teams want to eat $68 million plus a potential $24 million vesting option in 2019. As a result, a team wanting Hamels is not going to offer the "best" prospects in order to absorb Hamels' money. But the Phils think Hamels is an elite player so they are entitled to many elite players and prospects in return.
We know the Cubs front office is enamored by Hamels. Last season when the Phils put him on trade waivers, the Cubs made a claim, meaning Chicago was willing to eat the full contract. But the Phils pulled Hamels back off waivers, and no deal was made between the clubs.
As I said a long time ago, when Derek Jeter was retiring, the Yankees were the best trade partner for Castro. But there was never a hint or rumor that the Cubs-Yankees talked trade.
Baez is like Castro in that he is a free swinging shortstop. Baez has better defensive skills, but overall he has been lost in his own professional wilderness. A family tragedy, and an injury have set back his development into the whisper of his career trending toward very good AAA replacement level player at the MLB level. That label will not get an starting pitcher in the trade market.
There is too much tape on both Castro and Baez to be cornerstone pieces in a trade. They may be throw-in players, but other clubs are rudely asking for Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Kyle Hendricks or Anthony Rizzo for their best players. The Cubs are going to hold on to their "core" players since that is the whole purpose of their slash and burn rebuild plan.
There is also another problem. The Cubs reportedly only have $5 million left in their baseball budget for payroll additions. Hamels would break the budget. Considering the Cubs are eating $16 million for Edwin Jackson's release, the only type of starter one can get would be a $4 to $5 million 4th starter.
The type of player the Cubs could afford would be Cub killer Mike Leake of the Reds. Leake is 8-5, 3.78 ERA, 1.181 WHIP, owed about $5 million left on last year of his contract. He is a free agent at the end of the season. He is a rental player for this year's wild card run. The problem with the Reds is that they don't need middle infield help so Castro or Baez are not trade pieces in a potential Leake deal. And the Cubs do not have any real good minor league starting pitching prospects to dangle for a veteran arm.
So the Cubs are stuck with weak trade chips in a Seller's market.
ESPN's Jayson Stark reported that the Cubs have offered Castro and Baez to the Phillies for pitcher Cole Hamels, who has three years and a lot of money owed on his deal.
Stark added, however, that the Phillies are not enthralled with either player. But the Cubs remain determined in their efforts to trade for Hamels.
"I don't think they'll be in the rental market," the executive who has spoken to the Cubs told Stark. "So the value to them, with Hamels, is the three years [left on his contract]. This isn't just about selling out to go for the wild card. It's about getting ahead of [the free-agent ace market] this winter."
The Phillies are a difficult front office to deal with in trades. They ask for too much. But the problem with Hamels is his contract. Very few teams want to eat $68 million plus a potential $24 million vesting option in 2019. As a result, a team wanting Hamels is not going to offer the "best" prospects in order to absorb Hamels' money. But the Phils think Hamels is an elite player so they are entitled to many elite players and prospects in return.
We know the Cubs front office is enamored by Hamels. Last season when the Phils put him on trade waivers, the Cubs made a claim, meaning Chicago was willing to eat the full contract. But the Phils pulled Hamels back off waivers, and no deal was made between the clubs.
As I said a long time ago, when Derek Jeter was retiring, the Yankees were the best trade partner for Castro. But there was never a hint or rumor that the Cubs-Yankees talked trade.
Baez is like Castro in that he is a free swinging shortstop. Baez has better defensive skills, but overall he has been lost in his own professional wilderness. A family tragedy, and an injury have set back his development into the whisper of his career trending toward very good AAA replacement level player at the MLB level. That label will not get an starting pitcher in the trade market.
There is too much tape on both Castro and Baez to be cornerstone pieces in a trade. They may be throw-in players, but other clubs are rudely asking for Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Kyle Hendricks or Anthony Rizzo for their best players. The Cubs are going to hold on to their "core" players since that is the whole purpose of their slash and burn rebuild plan.
There is also another problem. The Cubs reportedly only have $5 million left in their baseball budget for payroll additions. Hamels would break the budget. Considering the Cubs are eating $16 million for Edwin Jackson's release, the only type of starter one can get would be a $4 to $5 million 4th starter.
The type of player the Cubs could afford would be Cub killer Mike Leake of the Reds. Leake is 8-5, 3.78 ERA, 1.181 WHIP, owed about $5 million left on last year of his contract. He is a free agent at the end of the season. He is a rental player for this year's wild card run. The problem with the Reds is that they don't need middle infield help so Castro or Baez are not trade pieces in a potential Leake deal. And the Cubs do not have any real good minor league starting pitching prospects to dangle for a veteran arm.
So the Cubs are stuck with weak trade chips in a Seller's market.
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