Nate Schierholtz hit his 18th home run to lead the Cubs over the Nationals in game one of their Wrigley series. Fellow journeyman Donnie Murphy also hit 2 home runs, and back up catcher
Dioner Navarro hit his 11th HR of the season.
Schierholtz and Navarro are both 20; Murphy is 30. Murphy was a mid season free agent acquisition. Navarro and Schierholtz were off season role players who had not had a starting chance in a long time.
Schierholtz has one year of arbitration left so he is under control through 2014. This season he has a 2.5 WAR.
Navarro signed a one year deal with the Cubs so he will be a free agent. The switch hitting catcher will get a large raise in the off season through free agency. This season he has a 1.8 WAR.
Murphy, in only 13 games as a Cub, has a 1.2 WAR. Murphy can also be a free agent in 2015.
The question is why did it take so long for these three journeymen to become potential full time starters with the Cubs? First, the Cubs are a bad team short on talent and depth at positions. Second, these guys are entering their prime playing years. Third, they have something to prove to the other teams that let them go. Motivation to succeed can be very powerful, in the short term.
It is doubtful that the front office thought these three players would give the power production spark that has been missing from the team. Sometimes, a GM gets lucky.
But there stays in Chicago will be short lived since the entire rebuild philosophy of the organization is to build from within with home grown prospects. The Cubs want a long term pipeline of young players who can be called up year to year like the Rays. The rebuild Cubs have always traded away veteran talent to acquire more prospects. The Cubs have traded 11 players so far this season. This trend is expected to continue in the off season.
If the Nationals can make the strange move to trade for David DeJesus, when the Nats are 10 games out of a wild card, then other teams may want to cherry pick the Cubs roster with the intent of building for next year today. Schierholtz and Murphy could be valuable pieces for a ball club that believes it is one or two players away from a championship season next year.
And the Cubs will accommodate those bidders. Because the Cubs do not want to build a club through journeymen.
Showing posts with label Navarro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Navarro. Show all posts
August 21, 2013
July 17, 2013
MOST VALUABLE ASSETS
While the Cubs are pushing hard Matt Garza in trade talks, is he really the most valuable asset the Cubs have to trade? No, he is not. He will be a free agent at the end of the year. He is a rental player to a trade partner. He wants a significant raise next season from his current $10.5 million contract. As in previous posts, Garza will not generate the number or quality of prospects in a trade.
Who are more valuable trade chips?
1. Travis Wood. The Cubs lone All-Star has the added advantages of being a left handed starter, and team control to 2017. He is arbitration eligible after this season. So he is a quality and affordable starting pitcher. He would bring back the most talent in a trade. However, is he more valuable to the Cubs to build a long term starting rotation?
2. Jeff Samardzija. The Cubs consider him "ace" material. He is a free agent in 2016. Like Wood, he is arbitration eligible but affordable to most teams. He would bring back more talent than Garza in a trade, but the front office is signalling that they want to keep Samardzija long term.
3. Dioner Navarro. Most contenders look to add a missing component to their bench (back up fielders or quality pinch hitters). Navarro has excelled at the latter. He signed a one year $1.75 deal with the Cubs so he is a free agent after this season. But being a catcher plus a switch hitter makes him a valuable commodity to the right team.
4. Kevin Gregg. Most contenders also look to bolster their bullpens for the final drive in September. Gregg has experience in set up and closer roles (even though his last five outings have been less than stellar.) He is also a free agent at the end of the season so he is a good choice for a contender who just wants insurance for this season.
5. Luis Valbuena. He may be the most versatile Cub to reach the market this year. He can play three infield positions. He bats left handed. He is a free agent in 2017 and arbitration eligible next year. He could be a valuable bench player on a contending team who has possible injury issues with its starters.
6. Carlos Villanueva. He is also versatile in that he can start and throw long relief. As staffs wear down this summer, a team may seek more live arms to get through the dog days of August. Villaneuva fits that role. He is signed for next season at a reasonable $5 million salary for a 5th starter so that should bring in an extra prospect in a trade.
7. Jeff Russell. He would have been more valuable, but during recent "show case" games he struggled. The amount of work may be catching up to him. However, he is a lefty reliever with experience that some teams need in order to compete in the latter stages of a pennant race.
It would not be surprising that at least half of these 8 players are traded by the Cubs before the deadline.
Who are more valuable trade chips?
1. Travis Wood. The Cubs lone All-Star has the added advantages of being a left handed starter, and team control to 2017. He is arbitration eligible after this season. So he is a quality and affordable starting pitcher. He would bring back the most talent in a trade. However, is he more valuable to the Cubs to build a long term starting rotation?
2. Jeff Samardzija. The Cubs consider him "ace" material. He is a free agent in 2016. Like Wood, he is arbitration eligible but affordable to most teams. He would bring back more talent than Garza in a trade, but the front office is signalling that they want to keep Samardzija long term.
3. Dioner Navarro. Most contenders look to add a missing component to their bench (back up fielders or quality pinch hitters). Navarro has excelled at the latter. He signed a one year $1.75 deal with the Cubs so he is a free agent after this season. But being a catcher plus a switch hitter makes him a valuable commodity to the right team.
4. Kevin Gregg. Most contenders also look to bolster their bullpens for the final drive in September. Gregg has experience in set up and closer roles (even though his last five outings have been less than stellar.) He is also a free agent at the end of the season so he is a good choice for a contender who just wants insurance for this season.
5. Luis Valbuena. He may be the most versatile Cub to reach the market this year. He can play three infield positions. He bats left handed. He is a free agent in 2017 and arbitration eligible next year. He could be a valuable bench player on a contending team who has possible injury issues with its starters.
6. Carlos Villanueva. He is also versatile in that he can start and throw long relief. As staffs wear down this summer, a team may seek more live arms to get through the dog days of August. Villaneuva fits that role. He is signed for next season at a reasonable $5 million salary for a 5th starter so that should bring in an extra prospect in a trade.
7. Jeff Russell. He would have been more valuable, but during recent "show case" games he struggled. The amount of work may be catching up to him. However, he is a lefty reliever with experience that some teams need in order to compete in the latter stages of a pennant race.
It would not be surprising that at least half of these 8 players are traded by the Cubs before the deadline.
July 8, 2013
HAIRSTON TODAY, GONE TOMORROW
Scott Hairston is no longer a Cub. The 33-year old outfielder has been traded to the Nationals for a Class A player. The Cubs also sent some salary relief ($500,000) to offset the remaining balance of the two-year, $5 million contract.
In 52 games, Hairston had 99 AB, and hit 8 HR, 19 RBI but batted .172. His season WAR is negative 0.5, which is worse than a AAA replacement player.
Why would the Nationals want a veteran like this? The Nats have had injury problems in their outfield and may wish to solidify a home run bat off the bench.
It also seems that the Cubs are not getting very much in return for their "assets" on the 25 man roster.
How many Class A level prospects can the Cubs absorb in one year (draft and international signings plus trades)?
One must also consider the possibility that the Cubs need to move payroll in order to balance overspending on prospects. The Hairston trade will cut $2 million off the 2014 payroll.
Even though the Cubs are playing poker with Matt Garza by holding on to him to the last minute to try to get a bidding war for that trade, the risk that Garza has one or two bad outings (or gets hurt again) is growing which each start.
The two most valuable trade pieces right now are Luis Valbuena and Dioner Navarro. Valbuena because he is a utility infielder who has flashed some glove skills recently. And Navarro who has excellent pinch hitting numbers, plus he is a switch hitting catcher (a rare commodity). I would not be surprised if these two players get traded before Garza.
In 52 games, Hairston had 99 AB, and hit 8 HR, 19 RBI but batted .172. His season WAR is negative 0.5, which is worse than a AAA replacement player.
Why would the Nationals want a veteran like this? The Nats have had injury problems in their outfield and may wish to solidify a home run bat off the bench.
It also seems that the Cubs are not getting very much in return for their "assets" on the 25 man roster.
How many Class A level prospects can the Cubs absorb in one year (draft and international signings plus trades)?
One must also consider the possibility that the Cubs need to move payroll in order to balance overspending on prospects. The Hairston trade will cut $2 million off the 2014 payroll.
Even though the Cubs are playing poker with Matt Garza by holding on to him to the last minute to try to get a bidding war for that trade, the risk that Garza has one or two bad outings (or gets hurt again) is growing which each start.
The two most valuable trade pieces right now are Luis Valbuena and Dioner Navarro. Valbuena because he is a utility infielder who has flashed some glove skills recently. And Navarro who has excellent pinch hitting numbers, plus he is a switch hitting catcher (a rare commodity). I would not be surprised if these two players get traded before Garza.
November 16, 2012
TABLE FOR THE DONIER PARTY
One of the core philosophies of the new front office was stated that they were not going to pay "for past performance." Well, Epstein and Hoyer need to update their subscriptions to Baseball Digest, because they continue to sign players who had good years, maybe four years ago.
Current example is your new Cubs catcher, Dioner Navarro. I really never heard of him before this week. And there are plenty of reasons for that. Navarro is 28. He has kicked around for bits and pieces of nine seasons with 6 different teams.Journeyman, right. He landed in Tampa in 2007 and hit .227 in his first full year. But in 2008,in a contract year where he was paid the minimum, he suddenly hit .295, 7 HR, 54 RBI andgot an All Star selection from a very good Rays team.
That one season got him a payday: $2.1 million for 2009. After getting the deal, his batting average tanked to .218.His career average is .245. But he has only caught three seasons in the majors, the last being three years ago.
Now, he is also small, 5'9". I checked with a Tampa fan site who said he is both a below average hitter (problem with contact) AND a bad defensive catcher. In 2011 Tampa cut him. The Dodgers picked him up as a back up. He hit worse, .193 and was out of baseball in the minors for most of 2012 in the Reds system.
So, everyone is asking why in the hell did the Cubs pay Navarro, who only had a minimum minor league deal in 2012, $1.75 million guaranteed major league contract for 2013??
There is absolutely no evidence that Navarro is back to his 2008 batting form. Some people compare him to Koy Hill, which is pretty spot on for another below .200 hitting back slug. So why the huge contract for someone who punched his own ticket out of baseball?
Here are some troublesome alternatives:
First, Epstein has no concept of player value.
Second, Epstein cannot project a player's recent play into future play with any accuracy.
Third, Ricketts is not minding the cash register.
Or worse, fourth, that Epstein sees Navarro as the Cubs opening day catcher.
Most people pencil in Beef Castillo as the Cub catcher. He hit .265 in 52 games with 5 HR, 22 RBI. He had a 1.2 WAR. But his fielding was below average at .981. And he has the curse mark of being a Hendry draft choice. It is hard to fathom why the Cubs would pay a back-up catcher to Castillo more than three times what Beef will make in 2013 unless Navarro is going to be the starter.
Current example is your new Cubs catcher, Dioner Navarro. I really never heard of him before this week. And there are plenty of reasons for that. Navarro is 28. He has kicked around for bits and pieces of nine seasons with 6 different teams.Journeyman, right. He landed in Tampa in 2007 and hit .227 in his first full year. But in 2008,in a contract year where he was paid the minimum, he suddenly hit .295, 7 HR, 54 RBI andgot an All Star selection from a very good Rays team.
That one season got him a payday: $2.1 million for 2009. After getting the deal, his batting average tanked to .218.His career average is .245. But he has only caught three seasons in the majors, the last being three years ago.
Now, he is also small, 5'9". I checked with a Tampa fan site who said he is both a below average hitter (problem with contact) AND a bad defensive catcher. In 2011 Tampa cut him. The Dodgers picked him up as a back up. He hit worse, .193 and was out of baseball in the minors for most of 2012 in the Reds system.
So, everyone is asking why in the hell did the Cubs pay Navarro, who only had a minimum minor league deal in 2012, $1.75 million guaranteed major league contract for 2013??
There is absolutely no evidence that Navarro is back to his 2008 batting form. Some people compare him to Koy Hill, which is pretty spot on for another below .200 hitting back slug. So why the huge contract for someone who punched his own ticket out of baseball?
Here are some troublesome alternatives:
First, Epstein has no concept of player value.
Second, Epstein cannot project a player's recent play into future play with any accuracy.
Third, Ricketts is not minding the cash register.
Or worse, fourth, that Epstein sees Navarro as the Cubs opening day catcher.
Most people pencil in Beef Castillo as the Cub catcher. He hit .265 in 52 games with 5 HR, 22 RBI. He had a 1.2 WAR. But his fielding was below average at .981. And he has the curse mark of being a Hendry draft choice. It is hard to fathom why the Cubs would pay a back-up catcher to Castillo more than three times what Beef will make in 2013 unless Navarro is going to be the starter.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)