A TRADE TO MAKE

The Cubs still have at least one trade to make this off-season.

AAA 3B Christian Villaneuva (picked up in the Dempster deal to the Rangers) is out of options.
He projects to be about a .260 hitter, moderate power, good defense at third. But he only plays third
so he does not fit into Maddon's "flexibility" roster.

The Cubs need to trade/package Villanueva to a team that needs a third baseman
(there are a lot of teams with that need, including the Reds and Indians) but who can
afford to give up a quality starting center fielder (which is in short supply).

If you find a taker, you would need to package a higher ML salary (Hammel or Montero or Soler)
to get payroll relief since the Cubs are already over the projected 2016 budget.

Villaneuva will not the be center piece of any trade, but he would be the added asset to get a deal done. He is a major league ready player who would be making the major league minimum.

MOST VALUABLE ASSETS

While the Cubs are pushing hard Matt Garza in trade talks, is he really the most valuable asset the Cubs have to trade?  No, he is not. He will be a free agent at the end of the year. He is a rental player to a trade partner. He wants a significant raise next season from his current $10.5 million contract.  As in previous posts, Garza will not generate the number or quality of prospects in a trade.

Who are more valuable trade chips?

1. Travis Wood. The Cubs lone All-Star has the added advantages of being a left handed starter, and team control to 2017. He is arbitration eligible after this season. So he is a quality and affordable starting pitcher. He would bring back the most talent in a trade. However, is he more valuable to the Cubs to build a long term starting rotation?

2. Jeff Samardzija. The Cubs consider him "ace" material. He is a free agent in 2016. Like Wood, he is arbitration eligible but affordable to most teams. He would bring back more talent than Garza in a trade, but the front office is signalling that they want to keep Samardzija long term.

3. Dioner Navarro. Most contenders look to add a missing component to their bench (back up fielders or quality pinch hitters). Navarro has excelled at the latter. He signed a one year $1.75 deal with the Cubs so he is a free agent after this season. But being a catcher plus a switch hitter makes him a valuable commodity to the right team.

4. Kevin Gregg. Most contenders also look to bolster their bullpens for the final drive in September. Gregg has experience in set up and closer roles (even though his last five outings have been less than stellar.) He is also a free agent at the end of the season so he is a good choice for a contender who just wants insurance for this season.

5. Luis Valbuena. He may be the most versatile Cub to reach the market this year. He can play three infield positions. He bats left handed. He is a free agent in 2017 and arbitration eligible next year. He could be a valuable bench player on a contending team who has possible injury issues with its starters.

6. Carlos Villanueva. He is also versatile in that he can start and throw long relief. As staffs wear down this summer, a team may seek more live arms to get through the dog days of August. Villaneuva fits that role. He is signed for next season at a reasonable $5 million salary for a 5th starter so that should bring in an extra prospect in a trade.

7. Jeff Russell. He would have been more valuable, but during recent "show case" games he struggled. The amount of work may be catching up to him. However, he is a lefty reliever with experience that some teams need in order to compete in the latter stages of a pennant race.

It would not be surprising that at least half of these 8 players are traded by the Cubs before the deadline.

HEDGING THE ROTATION

We all expected that the Cubs would focus in on second tier players. The Cubs are not in the position to contend, so many free agents will follow the money to a competitive team.

So the Cubs have been on a mission to sign injured pitchers with the hope of a lasting turnaround. Management views Tommy John surgeries like a clean fracture that will heal quickly and properly.

But the rumblings around the web recently is that the business side of Cubland has stalled out; that the push to get people on the waiting list to buy season ticket packages is not going well. It is not difficult to explain. People are not going to pay top dollar in a weak employment market for marginal entertainment value with no secondary resale market for the tickets if you cannot use them. The Cubs need to put the appearance of a competitive team on the field in order to generate interest and ticket sales. Gone are the days of automatic sell-outs no matter what the Cubs were doing in the standings.
In some ways, the Cubs are reverting back to the small market team dynamic.

This morning, it is reported that the Cubs will sign ex-Blue Jay Carlos Villaneuva to a two year, $10 million deal. Villanueva, 29, pitched to a 4.16 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 125 1/3 innings spread across 16 starts and 22 relief appearances for the Blue Jays last season. He's made 29 starts and 42 relief appearances over the last two seasons. Last season he went 7-7 in 125. 1 IP, 113 H, 23 HR allowed, 46 BB, 122 K, 1.269 WHIP and 1.2 WAR. He is the typical 6th starter, long reliever. But on the Cubs, he is probably the 4th starter.

There is also news that the Cubs have the best offer on the table for Edwin Jackson, a 4 year/$52 million deal. This seems low for a player like Jackson. He has been a workmanlike innings eater in his career. He has a bad clubhouse reputation, but when he was with the White Sox he was a quiet professional. He has been on seven teams in his 10 year career. Last season with the Nationals, he went 10-11, 4.03 ERA in 189.2 IP, 1.218 WHIP and 0.4 WAR. Last year he made $11 million. He would be looking for a good raise in his next contract.

The reason the Cubs are now aggressive in trying to sign pitchers like Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson is that a) they are under 30 years old, and b) they have the career stats to flip at the trading deadline for more prospects since Epstein does not give no-trade deals to his players as a matter of policy. But it is clear that top tier pitchers like Sanchez will listen to the Cubs offer, then take it to a contending team for a counter (like the Tigers did.)

But the Cubs need to make some waves this off-season because it is unclear how Scott Baker and Scott Feldman will perform in April. Matt Garza is also rehabbing from his mid-season injury. To add proven starters to the roster is needed to hedge the prospect that some of the current rotation will not be ready on Opening Day.

CUBS WINTER ROSTER

The Cubs added four minor league players to complete their 40 man roster.

Second baseman Logan Watkins, the Cubs  Minor League Player of the Year,  right-handed pitcher Trey McNutt, infielder Christian Villanueva (who came from Texas in the Dempster trade) and right-handed pitcher Robert Whitenack were added to the Cubs' roster.

Watkins, 23, a 21st-round pick in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, batted .281 for Tennessee and finished second in the league in walks and triples. He led the league in runs scored (93) and compiled a 13-game hitting streak in June, collecting seven multihit games in that stretch.

McNutt, 23, has been considered a top prospect since he went 10-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 2010 for Class A Peoria, Daytona and Tennessee. In 2011, he was 5-6 with a 4.55 ERA in 23 games for the Smokies, and this season, went 9-8 with a 4.26 ERA in 34 games (17 starts).

Villanueva, 21, was acquired from the Rangers in the Ryan Dempster deal in July, and batted .279 for Class A Myrtle Beach and Daytona combined, with 14 home runs, 24 doubles and 68 RBIs. He was playing for Obregon in the Mexican Winter League. He began his Cubs career by hitting a home run in each of his first two at-bats in his first game with Daytona.

An eighth-round pick in 2009, Whitenack, who turned 24 on Tuesday, has been slowed after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2011. He began the 2011 season 7-0 with a 1.93 ERA in 11 starts between Daytona and Tennessee, earning Southern League All-Star honors, before he was sidelined with an elbow injury.

Major league teams must protect players first signed at age 18 on the 40 man roster within five years or they become eligible to be drafted by other organizations through the Rule 5 process. Players signed at 19 years old are to be protected within four years.

At the winter meetings, clubs can pay $50,000 to select a player in the Rule 5 Draft
 If that player doesn't stay on the 25-man roster for the full season, he must be offered back to his former team for $25,000.

The Cubs selected pitcher Lendy Castillo from the Phils in the last Rule 5 draft. By all accounts, Castillo was a reach by the Cubs.  In 2011, Castillo pitched in A ball. He appeared in 21 games, with a record of 4-2, 2.54 ERA in 46 IP. For the Cubs, Castillo had to remain on the major league roster. He was hid in the bullpen and appeared in only 13 games, going 0-1 with 7.88 ERA and 2.250 WHIP. He spent most of the season on the disabled list.  But he is now a Cub property. That is the risk-reward of taking a young player with a live arm.

Two players left unprotected by the Cubs may get drafted by other clubs. Right-hander pitcher Nick Struck, who was the organization's 2012 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, was left unprotected. Struck, 23, started 26 games in AA in 2012. He went 14-10, 3.18 ERA in 155.2 IP, with 123 K and 44 BB, and 1.182 WHIP. Some may question why Whitenack was protected over Struck.

Also unprotected is Frank Batista, 23, who converted 23 of his first 24 save opportunities for Tennessee. A Southern League All-Star, he compiled a 2.22 ERA in 43 games, but did struggle in a brief stint with Triple-A Iowa, posting a 5.87 ERA in six games. If the Cubs are trying to move Marmol in the off-season, they need to develop a new closer.

The 40 man roster is the foundation for the major league team. The Cubs foundation currently stands as follows:

Pitchers (21): Baker, Beliveau, Bowden, Cabrera, Camp, Castillo, Chapman, Coleman, Concepcion, Dolis, Garza, Marmol, McNutt, Putnam, Raley, Rusin, Russell, Samardzija, Vizcaino, Whitenack and Wood.

Catchers (3): Castillo, Clevenger, Navarro

Infielders (9): Barney, Castro, Lake, Rizzo, Stewart, Valbuena, Villanueva, Vitters and Watkins.

Outfielders (7) : Campana, DeJesus, B. Jackson, Sappelt, Soler, Soriano and Szczur.

SURPRISE MOVE

Maybe Ryan Dempster just wanted a better landing spot for a contender than the Atlanta Braves. He got it with the Texas Rangers, who have the players to continue to go deep in the post-season if their pitching holds up. Injuries to two starters made Texas make a move to find a quality arm for the pennant chase.

The Rangers acquired Dempster  for Class A minor league third baseman Christian Villanueva  and Class A minor league right-hander Kyle Hendricks.  

Dempster was drafted by the Rangers in the third  in 1995 but he was traded to the Marlins in 1996.  Converted from being a closer,  Dempster was a fairly consistent starter for the Cubs. Since  acquiring 10-and-5 rights, Dempster had to approve the trade to the Rangers, which in some respects was a surprise since all indications was he wanted to move to the Dodgers.

Despite a low win total, Dempster posted a 2.25 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 in 104 innings with the Cubs this year.  He's earning $14MM -- nearly $5MM between now and the end of the season -- and will hit free agency this fall. It was clear that the Cubs would not tender him a contract at the end of the season, so there would be no compensation pick in the next draft. So the Cubs really needed to trade Dempster and receive something in return.

Villanueva, 21, has a .285/.356/.421 batting line in 425 plate appearances with Class A Myrtle Beach this year. The third baseman entered the 2012 season as the 100th-best prospect in MLB, according to Baseball America. He has a .286/.350/.438 batting line in four minor league seasons. However, the Rangers have another third base prospect, Mike Olt, which they believe is better than Villanueva. In a classic case of trading a prospect blocked at his position, the Rangers traded for Dempster, a proven commodity. 

The Cubs have been recently talking about shoring up the lack of depth in the minor league system, especially at third base. Villanueva shows some offensive power but has a weak fielding percentage at third base.  In some respects, he is in the mold of Cub minor leaguer Josh Vitters.

But the key to the deal is the pitching prospect. Hendricks, 22, has a 2.82 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9 in 130 2/3 innings over the course of 20 starts at Myrtle Beach. The 6'2" right-hander has 150 strikeouts and just 21 walks in 166 1/3 innings since being selected in the eighth round of the 2011 draft.

On paper, this looks like a good deal for the Cubs. The two prospects will take at least 3 to 4 years in the minor league development ranks before they have a chance to make the major league roster. Project late 2015. The Cubs front office has stressed that it wants to go young and acquire more "assets" under their control. The trade of four major leaguers for five minor league prospects is not quite the volume that most observers expected from the Cubs. And there were no immediate "impact" players in any of the Cub deals.

In fact, most writers believe the Cubs had a better deal with the Braves for Randall Delgado, a major league ready pitcher.