Yesterday, there was more non-baseball news than the actual Cubs-Marlins game.
Russell Addison returned from his 40 game suspension for domestic abuse to a chorus of boos and a light smattering of applause. Theo Epstein stressed before the game that the Cubs, as an organization, gave Russell the opportunity for a second chance for which he had fulfilled his conditions of his return. The Cubs also acknowledged that there would be many fans who would voice their displeasure at the return of a spouse abuser. Epstein said that the fans had their right to their own opinions on this issue.
The Cubs also announced it banned a fan for an alleged racist gesture that was caught on a live, mid-inning broadcast with Doug Glanville. The alleged offensive gesture was an upside down "OK" sign. There is a debate whether this symbol, which is part of a kid's "circle game," was intended to be a racist slur towards Glanville. But others have said that white supremacists have recently adopted this kid's sign as a racist slur. Most people watching the telecast were unaware of the gesture or its meaning. The Cubs stated that it had "zero tolerance" for any racist actions in Wrigley Field. Whether the Cubs did an investigation or interviewed the fan about his intent is unknown.
But the Cubs and ownership have created an even bigger problem. It has been well reported through the release of Joe Ricketts emails of his intolerant behavior toward minorities. Joe Ricketts, through a Cubs press release, apologized for his involvement in racist jokes and intolerant conversations he made in his emails. In the end, there was no further ramifications from that scandal. "Zero tolerance" apparently does not apply to ownership privilege.
The same is true with the inconsistent application of fan speech. The Cubs said it was okay for fans to boo the return of a spouse abuser, but it not okay to make an alleged racist hand sign. There are many more people offended about Russell's alleged criminal conduct than what fans say or do during a game.
If the Cubs have zero tolerance toward a fan's alleged action, why does the Cubs organization have great tolerance for spousal abuse behavior and its patriarch's racist remarks?
Showing posts with label Russell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russell. Show all posts
May 9, 2019
February 19, 2019
A STUMBLING START
To be objective, the Cubs stumbled into spring training. The off-season story lines were less baseball and more "sand in the ice cream" moments for fans.
After months of educated speculation, Tom Ricketts finally admitted that the Cubs had no money to spend this off-season. As some critics retorted, he really meant to say he had the money but would not spend it. His answer lacked credibility. Ownership set a hard line payroll and operations budget. Theo Epstein could not knock down that wall. From one calculation, Epstein has booked $376 million in unproductive contracts. That was the knock that got him booted in Boston, bad dead money deals (Crawford, Gonzalez, etc.) The one thing die hard fans, who know the championship window is short, is that your team cannot spend any money to fix last season's problems.
Another family stumble and subsequent bumble was Daddy Ricketts racist emails. A baseball business that prides itself on being inclusive (because everybody's money is green) was extremely slow to address the Joe Ricketts story. And when Tom Ricketts addressed the media, he came off defending his father's tactless posts than appeasing the public's negative reaction to the story.
Piling on to the narrative was the fact that the Cubs have partnered with the most right wing extremist media company, Sinclair, to launch the new Cubs network. There is a partial "guilt by association" splatter when the new cable channel was announced by the business operations folks like Crane Kenney. But Kenney came off clueless with the changing dynamics of cable and entertainment distribution. He is still following the failed Dodger model. Yes, the team got its money but the cable partner got burned at the stake. Other cable operators in LA refused to pay the carriage fees for a Dodgers only channel. So, less than half of the coverage area can see Dodger games. And that number is shrinking because people are revolting from high cable bills (mostly unwanted sports add-ons) by cord cutting.
Besides the political incorrectness with Sinclair, the "sales pitch" of the new regional sports channel was a thud. An introductory rate of "only" $6 per month per subscriber was received as a greedy slap in the face. Lost on the Cubs is that their former home, Comcast, is the largest cable provider in the metro area. Comcast could probably say it will not carry the new Cubs network because it has its own sports channel (featuring White Sox, Bulls and Blackhawks). Comcast is not going to push away its current subscribers to a $100/month cable bill just for the Cubs sake.
It is possible that the revenue projections and "investment" outside the baseball team have come to haunt the Ricketts. They bought the team with the largest debt in baseball history. That has to be coming due. They over built around Wrigley Field. They are pushing premium prices for everything around and inside the ball park. It is pushing our the casual fan and families. If the new network was going to be the revenue savior, that will not be the case. The Cubs will have build their own broadcast studios, invest in new programs to cover the 24 hours of time to fill, and to find advertisers who have bolted from TV and cable for internet platforms (Google and Facebook).
Then finally, the Addison Russell long over due press conference came off as an over-coached, lawyered-up, one memorized answer fail. Veteran beat reporters came away scratching their heads. Russell did not appear contrite. He did not sound sincere. His delivery was robotic and terrible. And he refused to admit even the basic allegations. Those who were critical of his behavior believed they had confirmed the worst. Many blame the Cubs for giving Russell a second chance when you are selling the Cubs as "family friendly" entertainment. But Russell is one of "Theo's guys," so management is going out of its way to protect their player, even though Russell has been trending down in production the past two years.
As spring training opened, there was little baseball buzz in Cubs camp as the non-baseball issues dominate the media and sports radio. And the Cubs PR machine broke down and did not handle any of them well.
After months of educated speculation, Tom Ricketts finally admitted that the Cubs had no money to spend this off-season. As some critics retorted, he really meant to say he had the money but would not spend it. His answer lacked credibility. Ownership set a hard line payroll and operations budget. Theo Epstein could not knock down that wall. From one calculation, Epstein has booked $376 million in unproductive contracts. That was the knock that got him booted in Boston, bad dead money deals (Crawford, Gonzalez, etc.) The one thing die hard fans, who know the championship window is short, is that your team cannot spend any money to fix last season's problems.
Another family stumble and subsequent bumble was Daddy Ricketts racist emails. A baseball business that prides itself on being inclusive (because everybody's money is green) was extremely slow to address the Joe Ricketts story. And when Tom Ricketts addressed the media, he came off defending his father's tactless posts than appeasing the public's negative reaction to the story.
Piling on to the narrative was the fact that the Cubs have partnered with the most right wing extremist media company, Sinclair, to launch the new Cubs network. There is a partial "guilt by association" splatter when the new cable channel was announced by the business operations folks like Crane Kenney. But Kenney came off clueless with the changing dynamics of cable and entertainment distribution. He is still following the failed Dodger model. Yes, the team got its money but the cable partner got burned at the stake. Other cable operators in LA refused to pay the carriage fees for a Dodgers only channel. So, less than half of the coverage area can see Dodger games. And that number is shrinking because people are revolting from high cable bills (mostly unwanted sports add-ons) by cord cutting.
Besides the political incorrectness with Sinclair, the "sales pitch" of the new regional sports channel was a thud. An introductory rate of "only" $6 per month per subscriber was received as a greedy slap in the face. Lost on the Cubs is that their former home, Comcast, is the largest cable provider in the metro area. Comcast could probably say it will not carry the new Cubs network because it has its own sports channel (featuring White Sox, Bulls and Blackhawks). Comcast is not going to push away its current subscribers to a $100/month cable bill just for the Cubs sake.
It is possible that the revenue projections and "investment" outside the baseball team have come to haunt the Ricketts. They bought the team with the largest debt in baseball history. That has to be coming due. They over built around Wrigley Field. They are pushing premium prices for everything around and inside the ball park. It is pushing our the casual fan and families. If the new network was going to be the revenue savior, that will not be the case. The Cubs will have build their own broadcast studios, invest in new programs to cover the 24 hours of time to fill, and to find advertisers who have bolted from TV and cable for internet platforms (Google and Facebook).
Then finally, the Addison Russell long over due press conference came off as an over-coached, lawyered-up, one memorized answer fail. Veteran beat reporters came away scratching their heads. Russell did not appear contrite. He did not sound sincere. His delivery was robotic and terrible. And he refused to admit even the basic allegations. Those who were critical of his behavior believed they had confirmed the worst. Many blame the Cubs for giving Russell a second chance when you are selling the Cubs as "family friendly" entertainment. But Russell is one of "Theo's guys," so management is going out of its way to protect their player, even though Russell has been trending down in production the past two years.
As spring training opened, there was little baseball buzz in Cubs camp as the non-baseball issues dominate the media and sports radio. And the Cubs PR machine broke down and did not handle any of them well.
July 2, 2018
EASY TRADE?
The radio chatter for weeks has been that the Cubs should trade Addison Russell to the Orioles for Manny Machado. It was poised as a simple no brainer deal, especially considering Machado wants to play shortstop.
But is it?
Machado is deemed to be a top 10 player in baseball. In 2018, he is hitting .310, 21 HR, 59 RBI, 5 SB and 1.7 WAR. However, he has a negative 1.5 dWAR.
Swapping Russell for a rental Machado may have made some sense when the Cubs could not score runs, but after scoring more than 40 in 4 games, is Machado really needed?
In 2018, Russell is hitting .286, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 3 SB and 2.4 WAR.
Yes, Russell has a higher WAR value than Machado. Russell's WAr breaks down 1.4 oWAR and 1.4 dWAR.
Russell has three more years of control while you would have Machado for three months tops.
Russell has lost his luster because of nagging injuries and lack of flash that Baez provides on defense.
But the more the season progresses, the need is less on adding Machado than finding another reliable starting pitcher.
But is it?
Machado is deemed to be a top 10 player in baseball. In 2018, he is hitting .310, 21 HR, 59 RBI, 5 SB and 1.7 WAR. However, he has a negative 1.5 dWAR.
Swapping Russell for a rental Machado may have made some sense when the Cubs could not score runs, but after scoring more than 40 in 4 games, is Machado really needed?
In 2018, Russell is hitting .286, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 3 SB and 2.4 WAR.
Yes, Russell has a higher WAR value than Machado. Russell's WAr breaks down 1.4 oWAR and 1.4 dWAR.
Russell has three more years of control while you would have Machado for three months tops.
Russell has lost his luster because of nagging injuries and lack of flash that Baez provides on defense.
But the more the season progresses, the need is less on adding Machado than finding another reliable starting pitcher.
July 5, 2017
MIDSEASON CHIPS
The Cubs entire infield started the 2016 All-Star game. This year, no one will.
Wade Davis is the sole Cub representative. Kris Bryant may get a bench slot if he is voted in by the fans.
The Cubs are stumbling to the break with a .500 at best record. Totally disappointing. Totally frustrating. Totally unexpected.
Who would have thought that the best Chicago player this season would be Avi Garcia? The White Sox outfielder has blossomed to a .318 BA, 11 HR, 51 RBI, .362 OBP and 2.9 WAR so far this year.
The Cubs are in an odd position, 3.5 games behind the Brewers. Milwaukee is supposed to crumble with the lack of starting pitching and a young team. But the Brew Crew continues to chug along in first place.
Which makes the Cubs decisions harder to make by the trade deadline. Are the Cubs buyers? Sellers? Or will they just stand pat and ride out the season?
It would seem the latter may happen by default.
No team will give up front line starting pitcher(s) without a King's ransom. And the Cubs better trading chips (like Schwarber) have struggled all season.
Look at a position comparison:
Is Russell a better shortstop than Baez? Russell may have slightly better range, but Baez has a better arm. Russell has regressed this season; some say it is his bum shoulder. That makes Baez almost untradeable since he can play three defensive positions.
Is Zobrist a better 2B/OF than Happ? Zobrist was the first Super Sub when Maddon was the Tampa skipper. Zobrist had a massive WAR because of his defensive skill sets. But Zobrist has struggled this season at the plate and with a wrist injury. Happ got called up early because of the offensive stuggles. He has provided some HR potential while he learns to play the outfield on the fly. Since Happ has upside, he suddenly becomes an untradeable asset because of his versatility.
Would any other team take Russell and/or Zobrist in a trade? Perhaps if a contending team had a key starter get hurt. But they will not be willing to pay top dollar for either one.
So the Cubs are stuck with many veteran chips in a depressed market. If there are moves to make, it may be for the shot-in-the-dark AAAA player to shore up the rotation as a spot starter.
Wade Davis is the sole Cub representative. Kris Bryant may get a bench slot if he is voted in by the fans.
The Cubs are stumbling to the break with a .500 at best record. Totally disappointing. Totally frustrating. Totally unexpected.
Who would have thought that the best Chicago player this season would be Avi Garcia? The White Sox outfielder has blossomed to a .318 BA, 11 HR, 51 RBI, .362 OBP and 2.9 WAR so far this year.
The Cubs are in an odd position, 3.5 games behind the Brewers. Milwaukee is supposed to crumble with the lack of starting pitching and a young team. But the Brew Crew continues to chug along in first place.
Which makes the Cubs decisions harder to make by the trade deadline. Are the Cubs buyers? Sellers? Or will they just stand pat and ride out the season?
It would seem the latter may happen by default.
No team will give up front line starting pitcher(s) without a King's ransom. And the Cubs better trading chips (like Schwarber) have struggled all season.
Look at a position comparison:
Is Russell a better shortstop than Baez? Russell may have slightly better range, but Baez has a better arm. Russell has regressed this season; some say it is his bum shoulder. That makes Baez almost untradeable since he can play three defensive positions.
Is Zobrist a better 2B/OF than Happ? Zobrist was the first Super Sub when Maddon was the Tampa skipper. Zobrist had a massive WAR because of his defensive skill sets. But Zobrist has struggled this season at the plate and with a wrist injury. Happ got called up early because of the offensive stuggles. He has provided some HR potential while he learns to play the outfield on the fly. Since Happ has upside, he suddenly becomes an untradeable asset because of his versatility.
Would any other team take Russell and/or Zobrist in a trade? Perhaps if a contending team had a key starter get hurt. But they will not be willing to pay top dollar for either one.
So the Cubs are stuck with many veteran chips in a depressed market. If there are moves to make, it may be for the shot-in-the-dark AAAA player to shore up the rotation as a spot starter.
July 21, 2015
WHO'S ON SECOND?
The Cubs still state that the team is a year or two ahead of schedule. That could mean that the team has promoted prospects quicker than expected, or, that the prospects major league performance has exceeded expectations.
In any event, the Cubs are dangling around the second wild card. That means playoffs. That means fan excitement (even though Cubs attendance has not been sell outs since the bleachers were completed; there has been a consistent 4-5k missing gate).
One of Joe Maddon's pet projects was to bat Addison Russell 9th. Maddon said it was done to protect Russell from batting 8th ahead of the pitcher. In theory, Russell will get better pitches to hit batting 9th with the lead off hitter (Fowler) behind him.
But the theory is not panning out. In his first 250 ABs, Russell is hitting only .228, 5 HR, 22 RBI, .296 OBP and 1.2 WAR (of which 1.1 WAR is for defense).
This becomes a problem if the Cubs really want to compete this year. Russell has not adapted well to major league pitching. One can debate whether sending him down to AAA will help his swing, mechanics or confidence. There is no one pushing him out of the lineup since both Tommy LaStella and Javy Baez have been hurt. The Cubs are stuck with Russell at second with no better offensive player on the horizon.
This does become a domino problem. Fowler leads the league in called third strike outs. The team is trending negative with more strikeouts (middle of the order guys, Soler, Bryant and Castro). The only batter that gives a hitter order protection is Rizzo, who has been flipping with Bryant between second and third in the lineup.
As most people focus on adding pitching for a playoff run, the Cubs probably should look at second base for the second half of this year. This is not to say Russell will pan out and have a good career. It may be that Russell's development (and struggles) take precedent over the Cubs getting into this year's playoffs (something fans don't want to hear).
In any event, the Cubs are dangling around the second wild card. That means playoffs. That means fan excitement (even though Cubs attendance has not been sell outs since the bleachers were completed; there has been a consistent 4-5k missing gate).
One of Joe Maddon's pet projects was to bat Addison Russell 9th. Maddon said it was done to protect Russell from batting 8th ahead of the pitcher. In theory, Russell will get better pitches to hit batting 9th with the lead off hitter (Fowler) behind him.
But the theory is not panning out. In his first 250 ABs, Russell is hitting only .228, 5 HR, 22 RBI, .296 OBP and 1.2 WAR (of which 1.1 WAR is for defense).
This becomes a problem if the Cubs really want to compete this year. Russell has not adapted well to major league pitching. One can debate whether sending him down to AAA will help his swing, mechanics or confidence. There is no one pushing him out of the lineup since both Tommy LaStella and Javy Baez have been hurt. The Cubs are stuck with Russell at second with no better offensive player on the horizon.
This does become a domino problem. Fowler leads the league in called third strike outs. The team is trending negative with more strikeouts (middle of the order guys, Soler, Bryant and Castro). The only batter that gives a hitter order protection is Rizzo, who has been flipping with Bryant between second and third in the lineup.
As most people focus on adding pitching for a playoff run, the Cubs probably should look at second base for the second half of this year. This is not to say Russell will pan out and have a good career. It may be that Russell's development (and struggles) take precedent over the Cubs getting into this year's playoffs (something fans don't want to hear).
March 30, 2015
CUBS BIG MOVES
The Cubs made its big spring roster moves. Kris Bryant and Addison Russell were reassigned to Iowa (because they are not yet on the 40 man roster) and Javy Baez was optioned to AAA (each player has three options years).
The reasons are clear but not without some controversy.
Bryant, who leads the majors with nine spring training home runs and battied .425 (17-for-40) with 15 RBIs in 14 games, was sent to the minors to start the season so that the Cubs will gain an extra year until he is eligible for free agency. Bryant's agent and many fans railed at the fact that the Cubs would put "a business decision" ahead of having the best 25 players on the field for opening day. And considering the Cubs ownership and management have told fans that the team is going to compete for the NL Central title and playoffs this year, not having probably your best hitter in the minors seems two-faced.
Further, the business decision is all based on the assumption that Bryant will still be productive SIX years from now. If you are in "win now" mode, you play your best players because your team may only have a small, one year window of opportunity (see, 2005 White Sox).
The Cubs claim that it was for developmental reasons. When Theo Epstein came to Chicago, he did have this arbitrary philosophy that minor league players need 500 AAA at-bats before being promoted to the major leagues. Bryant has had 297 ABs in AAA so far. That would mean Bryant is going to be in Iowa for more than the estimated two weeks since 200 ABs equates to another 35-40 games played for him to reach the 500 threshold. The Cubs will not admit this, but keeping Bryant down longer this season will help stop him from reaching Super Two status (the top 22 percent of rookie players in the game get a chance at early arbitration year).
It may take 30 games to train Bryant in left field duties. That is supposedly the plan if Mike Olt can be a passable third baseman. But based on Olt's Cub performance to date, Bryant is just as good fielder and a significantly better hitter than Olt. The Cubs have no other seasoned third baseman on the roster.
This could mean shortstop Russell, currently blocked by Starlin Castro, may also have to learn a new position in Iowa: third base. Russell looks like he has the body type that will fill out over time. He does have the arm strength to play the position. It was no surprise that despite batted .324 with a homer and six RBIs this spring, Russell was being sent to Iowa.
The Baez demotion took some people by surprise, maybe including manager Joe Maddon who has campaigned for days in keeping Baez on the roster for his fine defense and base running skills. But Baez struggled mightily this spring, batting just .173 with one homer, one RBI and 20 strikeouts in 52 at-bats. The slugging infielder had a whopping 95 strikeouts in 213 at-bats with the Cubs last season.
Baez has also not taken well to coaching in regard to his swing mechanics. The Cubs staff has tried to get Baez to shorten up his loopy power swing to cut down on the holes in the zone. The Cubs staff has also tried to get Baez to shorten his leg kick swing trigger. Apparently he tries the new mechanics in the batting cage, but not in game situations. Some felt that keeping Baez on the major league roster, he could get batting advice from the major league hitting coach and Maddon.
The fall out for these three roster moves is apparent:
Olt wins the starting third base position by default.
Arismendy Alcantara and Tommy LaStella will probably platoon at second base. Alcantara played CF for the Cubs last season, but is a natural second baseman who has some power. As camp began, LaStella was perceived as a utility-bench player.
The noise about trading Castro will die off with the move of Russell. But if Russell is not going to switch to third (or second if Alcantara returns to supersub role and Baez fails to cut down on strikeouts), then the pressure will be on management to move either Castro or Russell for a bigger piece of the championship puzzle (for example, a deal for major league ace starter like Cole Hamels).
The reasons are clear but not without some controversy.
Bryant, who leads the majors with nine spring training home runs and battied .425 (17-for-40) with 15 RBIs in 14 games, was sent to the minors to start the season so that the Cubs will gain an extra year until he is eligible for free agency. Bryant's agent and many fans railed at the fact that the Cubs would put "a business decision" ahead of having the best 25 players on the field for opening day. And considering the Cubs ownership and management have told fans that the team is going to compete for the NL Central title and playoffs this year, not having probably your best hitter in the minors seems two-faced.
Further, the business decision is all based on the assumption that Bryant will still be productive SIX years from now. If you are in "win now" mode, you play your best players because your team may only have a small, one year window of opportunity (see, 2005 White Sox).
The Cubs claim that it was for developmental reasons. When Theo Epstein came to Chicago, he did have this arbitrary philosophy that minor league players need 500 AAA at-bats before being promoted to the major leagues. Bryant has had 297 ABs in AAA so far. That would mean Bryant is going to be in Iowa for more than the estimated two weeks since 200 ABs equates to another 35-40 games played for him to reach the 500 threshold. The Cubs will not admit this, but keeping Bryant down longer this season will help stop him from reaching Super Two status (the top 22 percent of rookie players in the game get a chance at early arbitration year).
It may take 30 games to train Bryant in left field duties. That is supposedly the plan if Mike Olt can be a passable third baseman. But based on Olt's Cub performance to date, Bryant is just as good fielder and a significantly better hitter than Olt. The Cubs have no other seasoned third baseman on the roster.
This could mean shortstop Russell, currently blocked by Starlin Castro, may also have to learn a new position in Iowa: third base. Russell looks like he has the body type that will fill out over time. He does have the arm strength to play the position. It was no surprise that despite batted .324 with a homer and six RBIs this spring, Russell was being sent to Iowa.
The Baez demotion took some people by surprise, maybe including manager Joe Maddon who has campaigned for days in keeping Baez on the roster for his fine defense and base running skills. But Baez struggled mightily this spring, batting just .173 with one homer, one RBI and 20 strikeouts in 52 at-bats. The slugging infielder had a whopping 95 strikeouts in 213 at-bats with the Cubs last season.
Baez has also not taken well to coaching in regard to his swing mechanics. The Cubs staff has tried to get Baez to shorten up his loopy power swing to cut down on the holes in the zone. The Cubs staff has also tried to get Baez to shorten his leg kick swing trigger. Apparently he tries the new mechanics in the batting cage, but not in game situations. Some felt that keeping Baez on the major league roster, he could get batting advice from the major league hitting coach and Maddon.
The fall out for these three roster moves is apparent:
Olt wins the starting third base position by default.
Arismendy Alcantara and Tommy LaStella will probably platoon at second base. Alcantara played CF for the Cubs last season, but is a natural second baseman who has some power. As camp began, LaStella was perceived as a utility-bench player.
The noise about trading Castro will die off with the move of Russell. But if Russell is not going to switch to third (or second if Alcantara returns to supersub role and Baez fails to cut down on strikeouts), then the pressure will be on management to move either Castro or Russell for a bigger piece of the championship puzzle (for example, a deal for major league ace starter like Cole Hamels).
September 21, 2014
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT
When Starlin Castro went down to injury, Javy Baez stepped in at short. Even though the front office said Castro is their shortstop for the future, and Baez had been promoted to "learn" second at the major league level, Baez continues to play exclusively short. (I don't count the need of putting in .238 hitting powerhouse Chris Valakia at short).
Which does beg the question: why?
If Baez is supposed to be your second baseman in 2015, why not let him get fully acclimated at second this year? It seems like a wasted opportunity.
One could think that it is the Cubs being the Cubs by playing everyone out of their natural position, such as true second basemen Alcantara and Watkins roaming the outfield.
But if Baez is going to be a foundational infield piece, not playing him at second seems to foretell that Castro is not the long term Cubs shortstop.
I have been saying that a Castro trade to the Yankees (to replace All-Star Jeter) makes sense, except that the Yankees do not have a deep farm system of products. But at this point, the Cubs really need major league ready players in return for trades - - - especially pitchers.
And even Baez is not penciled in to be the Cubs shortstop of the future. Addison Russell is the front office choice.
Baez: .178 BA, 9 HR, 18 RBI, negative 0.4 WAR.
Baez (Iowa): .260 BA, 23 HR, 80 RBI.
Russell (A/AA): .295 BA, 13 HR, 45 RBI.
It would seem that Russell is 2 years away from his major league debut (late 2016). And Baez had not locked down a spot. After homering seven times in his first 19 games Baez has gone deep just twice in his last 24 games while hitting .146 with 44 strikeouts. Baez is hitting .178 with 78 strikeouts in 43 games overall, which is worrisome even for a free-swinging 21-year-old slugger who also struck out a ton in the minors.
The surplus is in middle infield talent. But most of that talent, except for Castro, is unknown. Which makes Castro the easiest piece to trade this off season.
Which does beg the question: why?
If Baez is supposed to be your second baseman in 2015, why not let him get fully acclimated at second this year? It seems like a wasted opportunity.
One could think that it is the Cubs being the Cubs by playing everyone out of their natural position, such as true second basemen Alcantara and Watkins roaming the outfield.
But if Baez is going to be a foundational infield piece, not playing him at second seems to foretell that Castro is not the long term Cubs shortstop.
I have been saying that a Castro trade to the Yankees (to replace All-Star Jeter) makes sense, except that the Yankees do not have a deep farm system of products. But at this point, the Cubs really need major league ready players in return for trades - - - especially pitchers.
And even Baez is not penciled in to be the Cubs shortstop of the future. Addison Russell is the front office choice.
Baez: .178 BA, 9 HR, 18 RBI, negative 0.4 WAR.
Baez (Iowa): .260 BA, 23 HR, 80 RBI.
Russell (A/AA): .295 BA, 13 HR, 45 RBI.
It would seem that Russell is 2 years away from his major league debut (late 2016). And Baez had not locked down a spot. After homering seven times in his first 19 games Baez has gone deep just twice in his last 24 games while hitting .146 with 44 strikeouts. Baez is hitting .178 with 78 strikeouts in 43 games overall, which is worrisome even for a free-swinging 21-year-old slugger who also struck out a ton in the minors.
The surplus is in middle infield talent. But most of that talent, except for Castro, is unknown. Which makes Castro the easiest piece to trade this off season.
July 17, 2013
MOST VALUABLE ASSETS
While the Cubs are pushing hard Matt Garza in trade talks, is he really the most valuable asset the Cubs have to trade? No, he is not. He will be a free agent at the end of the year. He is a rental player to a trade partner. He wants a significant raise next season from his current $10.5 million contract. As in previous posts, Garza will not generate the number or quality of prospects in a trade.
Who are more valuable trade chips?
1. Travis Wood. The Cubs lone All-Star has the added advantages of being a left handed starter, and team control to 2017. He is arbitration eligible after this season. So he is a quality and affordable starting pitcher. He would bring back the most talent in a trade. However, is he more valuable to the Cubs to build a long term starting rotation?
2. Jeff Samardzija. The Cubs consider him "ace" material. He is a free agent in 2016. Like Wood, he is arbitration eligible but affordable to most teams. He would bring back more talent than Garza in a trade, but the front office is signalling that they want to keep Samardzija long term.
3. Dioner Navarro. Most contenders look to add a missing component to their bench (back up fielders or quality pinch hitters). Navarro has excelled at the latter. He signed a one year $1.75 deal with the Cubs so he is a free agent after this season. But being a catcher plus a switch hitter makes him a valuable commodity to the right team.
4. Kevin Gregg. Most contenders also look to bolster their bullpens for the final drive in September. Gregg has experience in set up and closer roles (even though his last five outings have been less than stellar.) He is also a free agent at the end of the season so he is a good choice for a contender who just wants insurance for this season.
5. Luis Valbuena. He may be the most versatile Cub to reach the market this year. He can play three infield positions. He bats left handed. He is a free agent in 2017 and arbitration eligible next year. He could be a valuable bench player on a contending team who has possible injury issues with its starters.
6. Carlos Villanueva. He is also versatile in that he can start and throw long relief. As staffs wear down this summer, a team may seek more live arms to get through the dog days of August. Villaneuva fits that role. He is signed for next season at a reasonable $5 million salary for a 5th starter so that should bring in an extra prospect in a trade.
7. Jeff Russell. He would have been more valuable, but during recent "show case" games he struggled. The amount of work may be catching up to him. However, he is a lefty reliever with experience that some teams need in order to compete in the latter stages of a pennant race.
It would not be surprising that at least half of these 8 players are traded by the Cubs before the deadline.
Who are more valuable trade chips?
1. Travis Wood. The Cubs lone All-Star has the added advantages of being a left handed starter, and team control to 2017. He is arbitration eligible after this season. So he is a quality and affordable starting pitcher. He would bring back the most talent in a trade. However, is he more valuable to the Cubs to build a long term starting rotation?
2. Jeff Samardzija. The Cubs consider him "ace" material. He is a free agent in 2016. Like Wood, he is arbitration eligible but affordable to most teams. He would bring back more talent than Garza in a trade, but the front office is signalling that they want to keep Samardzija long term.
3. Dioner Navarro. Most contenders look to add a missing component to their bench (back up fielders or quality pinch hitters). Navarro has excelled at the latter. He signed a one year $1.75 deal with the Cubs so he is a free agent after this season. But being a catcher plus a switch hitter makes him a valuable commodity to the right team.
4. Kevin Gregg. Most contenders also look to bolster their bullpens for the final drive in September. Gregg has experience in set up and closer roles (even though his last five outings have been less than stellar.) He is also a free agent at the end of the season so he is a good choice for a contender who just wants insurance for this season.
5. Luis Valbuena. He may be the most versatile Cub to reach the market this year. He can play three infield positions. He bats left handed. He is a free agent in 2017 and arbitration eligible next year. He could be a valuable bench player on a contending team who has possible injury issues with its starters.
6. Carlos Villanueva. He is also versatile in that he can start and throw long relief. As staffs wear down this summer, a team may seek more live arms to get through the dog days of August. Villaneuva fits that role. He is signed for next season at a reasonable $5 million salary for a 5th starter so that should bring in an extra prospect in a trade.
7. Jeff Russell. He would have been more valuable, but during recent "show case" games he struggled. The amount of work may be catching up to him. However, he is a lefty reliever with experience that some teams need in order to compete in the latter stages of a pennant race.
It would not be surprising that at least half of these 8 players are traded by the Cubs before the deadline.
January 14, 2012
CHOP WOOD, TIMBER!
Theo Epstein threw away his principles and long term blueprint last night
when he announced the return to the mass of delusional sentimental fans
of KId K. It had to be on Friday the 13th. It had to be at the Cub convention.
It had to give the attendees some warm and fuzzy overtones of their past idols.
What the hell?
Again, what the hell?
A 34 year old relief pitcher coming off another knee surgery gets $3 million
while the New Management has no qualms about trading away the best
left handed reliever in MLB (Sean Marshall)?
Kerry Wood got Marshall's money, simple as that. But Marshall is a better pitcher - - -
well, he does not have a 14 year old 20 strikeout performance against a hapless
overjuiced Astros lineup on the old short and tattered resume that is Kerry Wood.
So the Cubs are back to PR moves instead of baseball moves. This has the
smell of a Ricketts-Kenney-old Tribune marketing intervention in order to put
lipstick on a pig before the prom.
But what misplaced loyalty. This is another blindsided slap at Ryne Sandberg.
He never got the respect from ownership or new management. Epstein announced
before the managerial search began that Sandberg was not a candidate. Why?
He had only won 4 years straight in the minors, with two championships. He had
paid his dues. He was loyal to the Cubs organization. He is a Hall of Famer!
And he is a fan favorite. But somehow, all these good works makes Sandberg
unqualified to be a manager. But somehow, Wood's total career of major disappointments,
blown expectations, injury plagued seasons is more important public relations
hiring a former manager who has shown clear success in winning to manage the Cubs.
This also puts Garza on the next plane out of town, for Maholm's $4.75 million plus
Wood's $3 million equals Garza's 2012 projected salary. In a zero sum game that the
Cubs payroll is going to be, PR wins out over performance, again.
when he announced the return to the mass of delusional sentimental fans
of KId K. It had to be on Friday the 13th. It had to be at the Cub convention.
It had to give the attendees some warm and fuzzy overtones of their past idols.
What the hell?
Again, what the hell?
A 34 year old relief pitcher coming off another knee surgery gets $3 million
while the New Management has no qualms about trading away the best
left handed reliever in MLB (Sean Marshall)?
Kerry Wood got Marshall's money, simple as that. But Marshall is a better pitcher - - -
well, he does not have a 14 year old 20 strikeout performance against a hapless
overjuiced Astros lineup on the old short and tattered resume that is Kerry Wood.
So the Cubs are back to PR moves instead of baseball moves. This has the
smell of a Ricketts-Kenney-old Tribune marketing intervention in order to put
lipstick on a pig before the prom.
But what misplaced loyalty. This is another blindsided slap at Ryne Sandberg.
He never got the respect from ownership or new management. Epstein announced
before the managerial search began that Sandberg was not a candidate. Why?
He had only won 4 years straight in the minors, with two championships. He had
paid his dues. He was loyal to the Cubs organization. He is a Hall of Famer!
And he is a fan favorite. But somehow, all these good works makes Sandberg
unqualified to be a manager. But somehow, Wood's total career of major disappointments,
blown expectations, injury plagued seasons is more important public relations
hiring a former manager who has shown clear success in winning to manage the Cubs.
This also puts Garza on the next plane out of town, for Maholm's $4.75 million plus
Wood's $3 million equals Garza's 2012 projected salary. In a zero sum game that the
Cubs payroll is going to be, PR wins out over performance, again.
This also puts more pressure on James Russell in the bullpen. As the only projected
left handed reliever, he must suddenly turn into the Next Sean Marshall. In a hurry.
Russell appeared in 64 games, 1-6 record, 4.12 ERA in 67.2 IP. He gave up 37 runs,
had a WHIP of 1.330, with 43 K and 14 BB.
Marshall appeared in 78 games, 6-6 record with 5 saves, 2.26 ERA in 75.2 IP. Marshall
gave up 21 runs, had a stellar WHIP of 1.097, with 79 K and 17 BB.
Russell needs to pitch 21% more innings at the same time cut down on runs allowed by
43% in order to come close to Marshall's performance.
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