YIPS TO YEESH

From YahooSports.com

 Jon Lester has 155 million reasons to be a complete ball player. Throwing the ball to first base is one of them.

And it should be an easy on. It is the same distance from the mound to first base as it is to home plate, where Lester makes his bread and butter.

From the start of youth baseball to the minors, pitchers normally were the "best" baseball players on their teams. They were usually two way starters. They usually had all the tools to play the game. That is why they rode their skill sets to the major leagues as complete players.

Now, one could say that Lester having been in the American League (with its DH), his batting skills could have atrophied - - - which they have done so. But pitchers in the AL still have to play defense, right?  There is no designated fielder.

Which brings Lester's previously unknown to Chicago yips into comical snowball effect.

Yesterday, in his third Cub start (all at his new home under construction park) Lester had to toss a come-backer to first but used his entire glove to get the job done. Now, this has happened before but not by a pitcher who has a documented problem of throwing the baseball to first on pick-off moves.

Matt Garza was a terrible fielder. Bunts to third or the mound usually wound up in right field. Teams took advantage of Garza's inability to field his position.  It became a long running joke.

Now, Lester seems to have surpassed Garza in the comedy fielding.

Cub fans will groan that this can only happen to them; their "ace" pitcher has a major flaw which will at some point cost us critical games. How hard can it be to throw a baseball to Anthony Rizzo??!

Apparently, for Lester: very.

LESTER'S PICK OFFS

In the first Cubs game, the world first learned of Jon Lester's "issue" with throwing the ball to first base. He had not done so in almost two seasons. Why? Some say he has a mental block or "the yips," which the dictionary has no origin but credits it to golfers who miss hit putts.

This is a major cause of concern for an "ace" pitcher. Even though baser unners did not have a marked historical advantage against Lester, we don't know if that was their leads were cut down because Lester is left handed (and looking in their direction which equates to a quicker throw to first) or if the teams did not really appreciate Lester's fear of throwing to first.

The last Cub pitcher who had defensive issues was Matt Garza. He could not field his position. At all. When a team bunted on him, he would field the ball and most likely it would land in the bullpen beyond first base or in the opponent's dugout. Garza had the command to throw strikes in and out of the zone to home, but on flat ground he was a throwing trainwreck.

In the opener with the Reds, Lester soft tossed a throw to Rizzo who had to leap to his right to catch the lob. Then, Lester quickened his toss and the ball landed beyond the RF bullpen. But for Soler gunning down the runner at third, it would have been a complete disaster.

Scouts and teams create "books" on opposing players showing their strengths and weaknesses. Teams are supposed to exploit a player's weakness. In Lester's case, his inability to keep runners close at first is a huge advantage to an opponent. Some runners have a lead beyond the infield cut circle, almost a third of the way to second base before Lester would pitch home. There is no way a catcher can overcome that kind of lead in a steal situation.

We should expect teams facing Lester will continue to make him throw to the bases. I would not be surprised if a team comes into the game and bunts like crazy to Lester in order to get infield base hits. If nothing else, it gets Lester's mindset out of whack. Frustrating a pitcher is also a means of altering a game in one's favor. There is nothing wrong with playing mind games when your opponent has a mental block in one part of his game.

A BIG DEAL

It is a foregone conclusion that the Cubs will trade Jeff Samardzija. It is just when and for how much.

Many believe that the Cubs should be able to get as much as the four players in the Matt Garza-Rangers deal: Edwards, Grimm, Ramirez and Olt.

Olt was once an untouchable third baseman in the Rangers system. Since becoming a Cub, he has become a Cub: horrible batting average, high strikeouts, some power, and below average defense. He is bad.

Edwards is a young string bean starter who got hurt this season in Class A. Every pitching prospect is a long shot but his mechanics and body type increase those odds.

Grimm was once a starter who now finds himself in middle relief. He has consistency and control issues. When the trade was made, he was once considered a replacement starter not a reliever. He has been average on his best days.

Ramirez was also a hot starting pitcher who would be a fixture in a future rotation. But he has been promoted to late relief to vie for the closer duties with Rondon. The jury is still out on Ramirez's long term future as a closer.

So the Garza deal has yielded the major league club one potentially good relief pitcher in Ramirez. Trading quality starters for good relievers is not a sustainable practice for any general manager.

Since Garza's trade, he has made 27 starts with a record of 8-9, 170.2 IP, 174 H, 54 BB, 140 K, 81 ER, 4.28 ERA, 1.324  WHIP. He is averaging 6.1 IP/ start for an overall disappointing Texas squad.

At the beginning of the year, many people thought the Cubs got a treasure trove of talent in the Garza deal; that the Rangers were hoodwinked. But clearly that is not the case. The Cubs got three fringe chips on a last place team.

If Samardzija is traded, the Cubs need to do better than the Garza trade or it is not worth it.

REJECTION

Cubs GM thinks Garza is still stinging from the rejection he must have felt when the Cubs traded him to the Rangers. However, Garza could not be clearer in his recent statements: he thought the Cubs losing hopeless and terrible. "You go through three years of constantly hoping, you kind of run out of hope,” Garza said. He compared it to a prison.

“We have to deal with those comments,” Hoyer said. “Until we’re winning, until we prove that we’re an organization that he would want to play for, I don’t think we can really comment on it. It’s his opinion and he expressed it.”

So Hoyer got around to responding to those comments. “Garza got his payday,” Hoyer said in CSNChicago article before the Cardinals series. “He’s on a team that’s winning. I guess he feels like he’s in a position right now to make comments. It’s on us now to flip that script, to show that we’re a place that people want to be, to show that we’re a winning organization.”


“It doesn’t really bother me,” Hoyer said. “Being traded is a hard thing, emotionally, for people. Even in a situation like that where we had a good relationship with him, there’s probably a feeling of rejection, for lack of a better word. People say emotional things when asked about it, because there’s probably some resentment they’re harboring.”

NO HOPE

After Matt Garza beat the Cubs 5-2, he spoke of his time with the Cubs.

CSNChicago reports that Garza stood at his locker and met with the media for less than three minutes. He insisted that this was just another game and that he was just trying to keep his mechanics in line and stick to the game plan. It was still enough time to deliver a few money quotes, because the Cubs still strike a nerve.

“It’s a lot of fun to win,” Garza said. “You go through three years of constantly hoping, you kind of run out of hope. You come to a team like this, where every day we’re going out to win. We’re not going out to hope to win.

“We’re going out with the attitude that we’re going to win. It’s a lot different. It brings up a lot more emotion, a lot better emotion than hope. It’s confidence. That’s what we’re playing with a lot right now.”

This is a constant drumbeat so far this year. Many different articles have quoted different players, including former Cubs, current Cubs and free agents that passed on the Cubs who all have put great emphasis on one thing: losing.

Jeff Samardzija must be channeling Garza about now. After three seasons of "rebuilding," the Cubs team as currently constructed is unwatchable. Fans have lost hope about the team even winning a series, let alone have a competitive record. Management and ownership does not seem to care, which adds to the depressing "no hope" bandwagon.

Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times was more harsh.

As if the Cubs have become baseball’s Alcatraz, where players do time until free agency or the inevitable trade while the lucky ones get reduced sentences by virtue of one-year flip contracts.

Just listen to Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Matt Garza’s advice to Jeff Samardzija, who will be on the trading block this summer.

“All I can tell him is keep pitching; pitch your way out of it,” said Garza, who was acquired by the Cubs in 2011 to help the team win, but instead endured the worst three-year stretch in franchise history. “Keep your eyes focused, your eyes straight ahead and just pitch. There’s nothing else you can do.”

When the Cubs could not sell out the most important day on their home schedule, Wrigley's 100th birthday party, the rest of the season will be down hill from there. Hope is the expectation and desire that something will happen in the future. But reality is a cruel knife that cuts through the misty dream fog of a Cub dynasty. There is nothing that bodes well to change the rut the Cubs team is currently mired in. The best pitcher in the Cubs system, C.J. Edwards, has come down with a shoulder injury. That is never good with a young pitcher with whippy mechanics. Observers now have concluded that Mike Olt is not a third baseman but a DH stumbling about the infield when he gets a chance to play. The Cubs bullpen continues to be a messy AAA turn style. Fan patience has gone the way of hope.

TRADE COMPARISON

There is a lot of fan debate on whether the Cubs made a good deal in trading Garza to the Rangers.

On Monday, the Cubs completed the Matt Garza  to the Rangers for C.J. Edwards, Justin Grimm, Mike Olt, and a PTBNL (either Neil Ramirez or presumably two lower-level arms). Olt is a potential power-hitting third baseman with a good glove, though there are questions about his ability to make contact. Edwards is a high-ceiling arm who has emerged from obscurity to show great stuff in Class A ball.  Grimm is a rookie pitcher that has been getting shelled in the majors but may have mid-rotation upside. Ramirez is a 24 year old AA-arm with good pitches except he is coming off shoulder issues.

So when takes a quick gut check observation of the trade, it seems okay if you are a risk taker. Olt may not be the great prospect he once was because of concussion/vision issues. Grimm is putting up Chris Volstad type numbers in Texas. Can the Cubs turn him around like they did Scott Feldman? Edwards appears to be the prize, but he is probably four years away and some consider his frame to be a real issue. Ramirez may be good but injuries at an early stage of his career are a potential concern.

In essence, the Cubs think they received two major league ready players (Grimm and Olt) but who may really be AAA+ players. Ramirez is a Class AA arm and Edwards is a Class A prospect with a high ceiling and some buzz.

This trade comes nearly two and a half years after the Cubs' acquisition of Garza from the Rays. In that trade, the Cubs sent Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos, and Sam Fuld.

Did the Cubs get more in return for Garza than they gave up to get him? With the Cubs, Garza had 60 starts and only 21 wins.

The current performance lines of the former Cub prospects:

Archer, 24, 5-3, 2.76 ERA major leagues, FA 2019

Lee, 22, SS, .422  BA, 1 HR, 7 RBI in 15 AAA games, coming off injury;  5 minor league seasons: .290 career BA (#90 prospect BA/#56 MLB)

Guyer, 27, OF, .300 BA, 7 HR, 38 RBI, 19 SB in 87 AAA games; FA 2018

Chirinos, 29, C.154 BA as #3 catcher in Texas, FA 2018; coming off injury

Fuld, 31, OF.198 BA, 2 HR 11 RBI 3 SB in 75 GP with Tampa as 5th OF; FA 2017

Archer will be a starting pitcher for the Rays for years to come. He has quality pitches but some scouts worry about his command.  Lee has the tools to be a starting major league short stop. An injury has set him back a year, but he could be on the Rays roster next season. Guyer has been blocked by current Rays outfielders, but he is major league ready. Chirinos had a concussion and lost a full season plus. Before his injury, he was on the Rays major league roster and getting good reviews as a back up catcher with some power. Fuld continues to be the person he was with the Cubs: reserve outfielder with plus defense and stolen base potential.

In retrospect, Archer may have had half the starts of Garza over the last 2.5 years, but he would also been more affordable with upside. Lee would have been in the same position as Junior Lake, a talented shortstop blocked by Starlin Castro but who could move to a new position. Lee could have given the Cubs more offense this year at second base. Guyer would have been playing OF for the Cubs the past few years, since he has similar David DeJesus numbers without the at bats. Fuld would have been the mainstay fifth outfielder since he is clearly better than Dave Sappelt, Marlon Byrd, Julio Borbon or Joe Mather. And Chirinos would have been a much better catcher than Koy Hill and would have pushed Geo Soto for a starting job.

All five of the former Cub prospects will reach the majors.  Two of the Ranger prospects the Cubs received have reached the majors, but have struggled and it is unknown if the other three will make it in the future.

At the time, I thought the Cubs gave up too much to acquire Garza. Yesterday, I thought the Cubs got a mish mash of talent for Garza which is understandable since he is a two month rental. So comparing the two deals is like comparing apples to oranges. I just do not think the Ranger prospects have more upside than the Cub prospects when they were traded to the Rays for Garza.

GARZA TRADE & PLAN

After sweating various medical reports from both sides, the Cubs and Rangers finally made the Matt Garza deal.  The vast majority of the Cub fandom was pleased by the trade results. But it may be based on superficial headline fodder such as the Cubs receiving the Rangers No. 1 prospect.

Garza was dealt for former No. 1 prospect (BA MLB No. 22 last year) Mike Olt. Olt, 24, batted .288/.398/.579 at Double-A Frisco last season and making his Major League debut with the Rangers.  However, in the off season he suffered a concussion. He's battled vision problems in 2013 and  his production has tanked to .218/.318/.438 at Triple-A Round Rock. Prior to the season, BA praised his plus raw power and advanced hitting approach, calling him "a threat to go deep anytime he steps to the plate." BA, ESPN's Keith Law and MLB.com's John Mayo all agree that he's a plus defender at third though Law questioned whether or not he will make enough contact to hit at the big league level with any consistency. So Olt was the Rangers best prospect, until he was injured. Last year the Rangers would not deal Olt to the Cubs for Ryan Dempster. The change in Texas's plans should have raised a red flag to the Cubs.

The Cubs hedged the trade by asking for one or two players to be named later if Olt cannot perform at a reasonable level. The PTBNL are from a list of pitchers, some of whom have past injury concerns such as Neil Ramirez, who was once part of the original package.  Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Cubs select Ramirez as the PTBNL in the deal the Cubs will not receive a second PTBNL.

In addition, the Cubs received two other pitchers: major league right handed starter Justin Grimm  and Class A right hander C.J. Edwards. Grimm could be best compared to Chris Volstad, a marginal No. 5 starter with a high ERA and high WHIP.  Grimm,  24, has made 17 starts for the Rangers this season but posted an ugly 6.37 ERA in 17 starts.He seems to be a placeholder selection for Garza's spot to finish out the season. Many people are excited by the Edwards pick. He is a string bean 6'1" 155 lb pitcher. Edwards, 21, ranked as Texas' No. 15 prospect prior to the season.  Edwards' stock has skyrocketed in 2013, as he's pitched to a pristine 1.83 ERA with 11.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 93 1/3 innings for Class A Hickory.

By comparison, former Cub pitcher Chris Archer when he was 21 had a minor league record of 15-3, 2.84 ERA, 1.174 WHIP in High Class A and AA . Archer was the centerpiece of the Cubs trade to acquire Garza from Tampa Bay.

The Rangers stepped up their initial offer because it appeared that other ball clubs were in the mix. Oakland, which is trying to keep the Rangers at bay in the AL West, were rumored to have interest in Garza in order to keep him away from the Rangers. Oakland's interest may have been accelerated by the PED suspension rumors of the Biogenesis scandal which could affect one of the A's starters. But it seemed the A's did not have the quantity of prospects the Cubs were seeking for Garza.

It was possible that the Cubs could have held on to Garza if  the Cubs were not going to get the prospect package they want for Garza. That would have meant Garza could stay a Cub for the rest of the season. And this would give the Cubs another option: allow Garza to go unrestricted free agency or give him a qualifying offer.

MLBTR explains:

• Teams will have until five days after the World Series to make qualifying offers and the players will have seven days to accept.
• Once a team makes a qualifying offer, the player has two choices: he can accept the one-year deal or decline in it search of other offers. If he declines the offer and signs elsewhere, his new team will have to surrender a top draft pick (the selection doesn't go to the player's former team). 
• Teams that sign free agents who turned down qualifying offers will surrender their first round picks. However, the forfeited picks don't go to other MLB teams. Instead, the first round simply becomes condensed.
• The first ten selections in the draft are protected. Teams with protected picks will surrender their second-highest selections. 
• The player’s former team will receive its compensatory selection at the end of the first round. Teams now obtain one compensatory selection, instead of two.
• If teams don’t make a qualifying offer, the player can sign uninhibited.
• Only players who have been with their clubs for the entire season will be eligible for compensation.

 The projected qualifying offer for this off season is approximately $13.5 million. Garza is currently making $10.25 million. So the Cubs would have to balance this situation: 1) give Garza a 32% raise for a one year deal or 2) hope Garza declines the offer so the Cubs can get a supplemental first round pick. The latter result is based upon whether Garza will receive substantially more than $13.5 million per season. Given his injury history, and the potential loss of a first round pick, many teams may be hesitant to give Garza a long term contract (such as 5 years $80 million). So, can the Cubs live with Garza in the rotation in 2014? Yes, especially since the front office is trying to blow up the pitching staff again at the trade deadline. But no, if moving Garza is another Rube Goldberg gear in the Epstein-Hoyer rebuilding plan.

Cubs thought that the package of an injured third baseman in Olt, a young arm in Edwards and at least one other minor league pitcher more valuable than the possibility of a low first round supplemental draft pick in 2014. The Cubs have contract control of Olt to 2019 (arb eligible in 2016). If Olt regains his form and is the third baseman with plus defense beginning in 2014, then the Cubs would adjust the Plan and move Kris Bryant to RF. If Olt and Edwards work out as major league talent, then the trade would have been deemed very good. If not, since the Cubs were not going to re-sign Garza, it was a mere shuffling of the deck.

The acquisition of Olt does slow down the need for Bryant to be part of the 2014 Cub roster. He fills the hole at third base. Bryant is one the most major league ready draft choice of the Cubs have had in many years. If the Cubs will convert him to the outfield, they can hold him back in the minors under the guise of needed development, such as starting him in rookie league instead of Class AA. This will add one or two years of promotional steps until Bryant makes the Cubs roster.

Fans must temper their buy-in of the Plan by the quick start of Junior Lake this week. Lake was a Hendry selection. His promotion has been moved along quickly because of injuries to the many journeymen outfielders the current front office have signed to fill outfield spots.  We do not know whether Lake is actually part of the current rebuilding plan. He is getting his show case now, just as Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters did late last year.

But the fans like the idea of the Cubs stockpiling so many new Class A players in the system. The problem with a bottom heavy system is that it takes more time to develop and promote that talent under the current goal levels set by the Cubs management. In addition, one can only realistically project only 6 minor leaguers in the any ball club system to make it to the major leagues as a starter. The Cubs actually need to acquire more major league ready and Class AAA ball players to balance their minor league system.

The next part of the Plan is to trade off more major league roster pieces before the trade deadline. Players mentioned to be part of the trade market include Alfonso Soriano, Kevin Gregg, and David DeJesus.

ANOTHER ROCKY TIME

The Cubs lost the series to the Rockies. Sunday's game was another shut out on a key offensive stat: 0-for 9 with runners in scoring position (RISP). For the series, the Cubs were 1 for 25 RISP.

The one bright spot for the series was the debut of Junior Lake. He is a slightly bigger clone of Starlin Castro at the plate. He has a nervous hitch in his set up, but he has very quick bat speed through the zone. He came to the team and had an immediate spark of rookie energy, first by hitting a double on his first major league pitch, then stealing third base. He also got caught in a run down between home and third, but showed some baseball intelligence by extending the run down sufficiently so his team mate could take second. But in the last game, his wild throw from center field to home plate may have been the difference in the loss.

Lake wants to impress the front office in order to stay in the Show. He does have flashes of being a major league talent but he is still a raw talent learning a new position, center field.

Lake's debut also took away from some of the weekend Garza trade talk. Everyone expected that Garza would have been traded by Saturday night. Numerous reports had the Rangers having a tentative deal with the Cubs. But the traded was nixed because of an medical concern with one of the players coming back from the Rangers (probably Mike Olt who has had concussion/vision issues). Or, the worst case scenario is that the Rangers looked at Garza's medicals and determined that he is one hard slider away from the next DL stint. Either way, the rumored second team has not materialized to submit a package to the Cubs for Garza.

It was unthinkable at the All-Star break that Garza would make another start of the Cubs. But he is scheduled to throw tonight. All things point to Garza remaining a Cub for the next week. The front office tried to get teams to submit their "best" Garza offers, but maybe the market softened after Ricky Nolasco went to the Dodgers and Scott Feldman was traded to the Orioles. It would seem that the longer the Cubs wait to make a Garza deal, the less value Garza has a rental player.

MOST VALUABLE ASSETS

While the Cubs are pushing hard Matt Garza in trade talks, is he really the most valuable asset the Cubs have to trade?  No, he is not. He will be a free agent at the end of the year. He is a rental player to a trade partner. He wants a significant raise next season from his current $10.5 million contract.  As in previous posts, Garza will not generate the number or quality of prospects in a trade.

Who are more valuable trade chips?

1. Travis Wood. The Cubs lone All-Star has the added advantages of being a left handed starter, and team control to 2017. He is arbitration eligible after this season. So he is a quality and affordable starting pitcher. He would bring back the most talent in a trade. However, is he more valuable to the Cubs to build a long term starting rotation?

2. Jeff Samardzija. The Cubs consider him "ace" material. He is a free agent in 2016. Like Wood, he is arbitration eligible but affordable to most teams. He would bring back more talent than Garza in a trade, but the front office is signalling that they want to keep Samardzija long term.

3. Dioner Navarro. Most contenders look to add a missing component to their bench (back up fielders or quality pinch hitters). Navarro has excelled at the latter. He signed a one year $1.75 deal with the Cubs so he is a free agent after this season. But being a catcher plus a switch hitter makes him a valuable commodity to the right team.

4. Kevin Gregg. Most contenders also look to bolster their bullpens for the final drive in September. Gregg has experience in set up and closer roles (even though his last five outings have been less than stellar.) He is also a free agent at the end of the season so he is a good choice for a contender who just wants insurance for this season.

5. Luis Valbuena. He may be the most versatile Cub to reach the market this year. He can play three infield positions. He bats left handed. He is a free agent in 2017 and arbitration eligible next year. He could be a valuable bench player on a contending team who has possible injury issues with its starters.

6. Carlos Villanueva. He is also versatile in that he can start and throw long relief. As staffs wear down this summer, a team may seek more live arms to get through the dog days of August. Villaneuva fits that role. He is signed for next season at a reasonable $5 million salary for a 5th starter so that should bring in an extra prospect in a trade.

7. Jeff Russell. He would have been more valuable, but during recent "show case" games he struggled. The amount of work may be catching up to him. However, he is a lefty reliever with experience that some teams need in order to compete in the latter stages of a pennant race.

It would not be surprising that at least half of these 8 players are traded by the Cubs before the deadline.

RANGERS EYE GARZA

Various media reports indicate that the Cubs are pushing hard to get top dollar for Matt Garza. However, most general managers polled indicate that Garza is not a touted number one ace but a "solid number three" starter. The Cubs may be wanting too much for Garza.

The Texas Rangers have now been linked to be the most likely trade partner. Garza has gone 5-0 with a 1.24 ERA in his last six starts and has experience pitching well in both the AL East and the postseason.The Rangers have four starters - - - Yu Darvish, Alexi Ogando, Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis — on the disabled list, so they have need some insurance for the rest of the season.  Texas is expecting Darvish and Ogando back. Things are more uncertain with Harrison and Lewis. A second half rotation of  Darvish, Garza and Derek Holland would line up 1-2-3 for the playoffs. The Cubs have traded with Texas last season.

As indicated previously, it is doubtful that the Cubs will get more than the Rays received when on January, 2010,  GM Jim Hendry finalized a trade that brought Garza (and Fernando Perez and Zach Rosscup)to Chicago from the Rays for Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer. Archer, 24, is now in the Rays rotation. The rest have hit the majors. Fuld has been the 5th OF for the Rays. Lee, Chirinos and Guyer have had injury problems, but Lee would have made it to the majors this year except of a knee problem this spring.

There may be some irony if a deal gets done. Chirinos is now the #3 catcher with the Rangers. If the Cubs move Dioner Navarro, then the Cubs need a back up to close out the season. Mike Olt, the player the Cubs wanted last season, is still blocked by Adrian Beltre at third. The Cubs drafted Kris Bryant to play third long term. Olt batted .194 this year and has been reassigned to AAA. He is still ranked the Rangers No. 1 prospect.

The Cubs will not get a top 10 prospect like #3 SP Cody Buckel, major league ready #5 RP William Font, #8 19 year old power hitting 2B Rougned Odor, or #10 SP Luke Jackson. The Cubs may get a next tier player such as 24 year old Class AA SP Neil Ramirez or 21 year old Class A SP Alec Asher.

The problem is two fold. The Cubs may have priced their demands outside the market for teams looking for a No. 3 starter. Also, the Cubs have made it clear that they do not intend to keep Garza, which lessens any bargaining power.

GARZA TRADE VALUE

 With the Rays Chris Archer throwing his first career complete game shut out last night against the Astros, it is appropriate to review what is going to be the true value of Matt Garza on this year's trade market. In my view, the Cubs will not get anything close to Archer's value in return.

Since coming back from his disabled list stint, Garza has been throwing the ball quite well. He has had the reputation as a front line starter. He is making $10.25 million this season in the last year of his contract. He has been paid more than $29 million for a career 5.0 WAR over the last 8 seasons.

At best, a new team will have Garza for 10 to 12 starts, for an average cost of approximately $307,000 per start. Only a team that really needs a quality starter for the stretch run would pay that kind of rental per diem.   This will limit the amount of truly interested teams in the Garza trade market.

Scott Feldman was a more affordable, therefore more tradeable commodity. At $6 million this season, the Orioles will probably get 14-15 starts, at a cost of approximately $133,000 per start.

For Feldman, the Cubs received two major league service time players who were on the downside in the Baltimore careers. Pedro Strop, 28, has struggled this season, going 0-3 with a 7.25 ERA in 29 relief appearances for the Orioles.  The hard-throwing right-hander was Baltimore's primary setup man last season, when he posted a 2.44 ERA in 70 games. Former top prospect, the 27-year-old Jake Arrieta was 1-2 with a 7.23 ERA in five starts this season. The right-hander owns a 5.46 ERA in 69 games -- 63 starts -- over parts of four seasons with Baltimore. So the Feldman trade yielded two pitchers that had current ERAs over 7.00 and who were probably destined to the minors or waivers.

Now, the Cubs think they can rehabilitate both pitchers. Strop is in the Cubs bullpen and Arrieta is at Iowa. Strop has done well in his 6 IP for the Cubs, only giving up 2 hits for a 0.667 WHIP.

With a 1.688 whip and 4.22 ERA in 3 game starts for Iowa,  Arrieta is not setting the world on fire. He appears to be the insurance policy starter when Garza is traded.

The best trade value to find is a team where a polished AAA player who is position blocked at the major league level. It is easier to find position players in this bind than pitchers, who can always be used in the bullpen. The problem is that the Cubs are looking for more long term prospects, maybe at the AA level. These prospects are the type that most teams will not give up for a two month player rental.

And player rental is a key component. Garza will be looking to seek more than the expected $13.5 million qualifying offer other starters will receive this off season. A team acquiring Garza cannot get a draft choice if he hits the free agent market. The team could try to negotiate a long term extension, but all signs indicate that Garza will test the open market. That will again lessen the quality of players coming back to the Cubs.

The Cubs want a lot in return for Garza. The Cubs would like to get at least three prospects in return for Garza, including a AAAA-ready starting pitcher (like Travis Wood in the Sean Marshall deal) and two low level prospects with high ceilings. The idea of giving up a young, major league ready starting pitcher to the Cubs for Garza is always going to be a tough sell. Many general managers will just take that major league ready prospect and promote them rather than mortgaging the future.

I highly doubt that the Cubs will receive any team's Top 10 prospects for Garza. At best, the Cubs will probably get an "older" Top 25 prospect and maybe coupled with a marginal major leaguer who would be optioned/DFA in order to open a space for Garza on the new roster. An "older" prospect means a high school draft choice who has been slow to develop in the team's system. He may be on the last chance mode (think Josh Vitters). So my expectations for Garza value could be like trading for a Rafael Dolis, Josh Vitters and/or Dave Sappelt clones.

HAIRSTON TODAY, GONE TOMORROW

Scott Hairston is no longer a Cub. The 33-year old outfielder has been traded to the Nationals for a Class A player. The Cubs also sent some salary relief ($500,000) to offset the remaining balance of the two-year, $5 million contract.

In 52 games, Hairston had 99 AB, and hit 8 HR, 19 RBI but batted .172.  His season WAR is negative 0.5, which is worse than a AAA replacement player.

Why would the Nationals want a veteran like this? The Nats have had injury problems in their outfield and may wish to solidify a home run bat off the bench.

It also seems that the Cubs are not getting very much in return for their "assets" on the 25 man roster.

How many Class A level prospects can the Cubs absorb in one year (draft and international signings plus trades)?

One must also consider the possibility that the Cubs need to move payroll in order to balance overspending on prospects. The Hairston trade will cut $2 million off the 2014 payroll.

Even though the Cubs are playing poker with Matt Garza by holding on to him to the last minute to try to get a bidding war for that trade, the risk that Garza has one or two bad outings (or gets hurt again) is growing which each start.

The two most valuable trade pieces right now are Luis Valbuena and Dioner Navarro. Valbuena because he is a utility infielder who has flashed some glove skills recently. And Navarro who has excellent pinch hitting numbers, plus he is a switch hitting catcher (a rare commodity). I would not be surprised if these two players get traded before Garza.

BUILDING A STAFF

The Cubs have the hottest pitching commodity this season. Matt Garza will be traded before the deadline according to multiple news reports. Since returning to from the disabled list, Garza is 3-1.

The Cubs plan continues to be to sell off roster players in exchange for multiple prospects. In addition, in the past two drafts, the Cubs have selected more than 25 pitchers. However, the "best" two pitching prospects are questionable. Arodys Vizcaino, acquired from Atlanta for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson, has not pitched since 2011. He has had another set back in his recovery from Tommy John surgery. There is a chance that he may not pitch again. The other pitcher, Dillon Maples, has also had injury concerns which has kept him muddling around in Class A ball with very few starts. This season in 7 starts, he is 0-2, 7.89 ERA, 1.888 WHIP. Other recent high picks like Duane Underwood or Paul Blackburn are not lighting up their professional debuts. They are projected to move slowly up the minors to Iowa in 2015-2016. However, they may not be any better when they arrive than a Casey Coleman.

So the front office has stubbornly decided that the sign and flip starter pitchers will continue until the team can field a "home grown" staff of aces. That may be the plan, but it is also a high risk strategy that will explode in your face if your scouts and minor league coaches miss on the skill sets of those young pitchers.

The Cubs want to build a quality starting rotation. Every team does. Here is an outline of a solid starting pitching staff:

SP #1, age 28, 3.34 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 3.24 K/BB ratio

SP #2, age 26, 2.85 ERA, 0.997 WHIP, 2.34 K/BB ratio

SP #3, age 30, 3.46 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 2.68 K/BB ratio

 SP# 4, age 29, 3.83 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 3.13 K/BB ratio

SP #5, age 29, 3.59 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 2.83 K/BB ratio

SP #6, age 29, 5.75 ERA, 1.540 WHIP, 2.32 K/BB ratio

It is doubtful that any general manager in baseball would not want to have such a starting pitching staff. Collectively, they are young, have excellent control and below average ERAs.  

The example starting pitching staff is actually a real 2013 squad.

The surprise is that is example staff is the Chicago Cubs. (SP1 = Samardzija; SP2 = T. Wood; SP3 = Feldman; SP4 = Garza; SP5 = Villanueva; SP 6= E. Jackson).

Samardzija is a former reliever who found his control as a starter. T. Wood was a pick up in a trade. Feldman was a reconstruction project after Texas cut him due to control issues. Garza was part of a trade package. Villanueva was a free agent signing. And E. Jackson was the team's "big money" long term free agent signing. Only Samardzija was a "home grown" product (from a different regime).

Realistically, there is not one player at AAA or AA that can take the place of any of the Cubs top 6 starting pitchers.

The front office also boxed itself into a corner. Samardzija is arbitration eligible and will command high seven figures. Garza is looking for a pay increase toward the qualifying offer number of $13 million. Feldman only signed a one year deal so he will hit the free agent market to make Samardzija money. And the worst performing pitcher, E. Jackson, is locked in for another $ 39 million through 2016 season.

The Cubs signed a bunch of pitchers with injury or control issues in the hopes that they could have a better than average start so they could trade them in July. The irony is that the Cubs built a quality starting rotation but did not think they'd be this good. But they still need to blow up the staff because the team cannot afford to keep everyone.

Or so they say.  

There are a few fans who believe that they have seen the lack of progress in the Cubs minor league system under the new front office to be worried. Other small market teams like the Orioles and Rays continue to bring up young 22-23 year old starters who have an immediate impact. These fans would rather "keep what you know" than hope your prospects will pan out in the long term future. 

The front office has droned on that the team needs to have more pitching and depth of pitching in order to have a solid organization.

So if Garza is being sold as a quality starter, a staff ace, why wouldn't the Cubs want to lock in such a player? 

The front office continues to push back the "contending" year in the rebuilding plan. Based upon the slow progress of the new prospects, it may be 2017 when Baez, Soler, Almora or Maples is "ready" for the big leagues. So Ricketts is not willing to spend $13 million per current starter for the next four years when the positional roster will not have any quality impact players.

By analogy, if one is going to rebuild a house, the builder does not piece meal the project. He does not take off a section of roof shingles, then stops and goes to dig up some landscaping. If a new roof is a priority, he rebuilds the roof right away to prevent further damage to the interior of the house. Then the builder tackles the exterior siding and then interior elements and upgrades.

The Cubs have four basic areas to rebuild: starting pitching, starting position players, bullpen, and utility bench players. At best, there may be one or two players at Iowa who can plug in a bullpen or bench slot next season. The current roster is filled with bench players who are actually trying to start or platoon. The Cubs have already rebuilt the starting rotation with quality arms, so the biggest problem and concern has been solved IF the team keeps it together. The Cubs could turn it around quickly in 2014 if they sign impact free agent outfielder, (like a Choo)  second baseman (like a Cano) and Kris Bryant is the real deal and can play third right away.

But there is a clear signal from the Cubs that ownership is tightening the payroll budgets in order to pay for the Wrigley renovations. Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein have down played being active in the free agent markets in the next few years. They stress the draft and international player signings.

The Cubs appear that they will not stop and consider that their main problem, starting pitching, has been be solved if they keep the starting rotation in tact. They are saying that it is better to trade or release these current starters because they will not be good when the team is ready to compete. But the Cubs could compete right now, if the front office can fix the offensive woes of the starting eight in the field.

EARLY BIRD

Peter Gammons was on the radio this morning. He made the point that many teams, including the Cubs and White Sox, are pushing hard to trade their players before the July 31st deadline.

The reason is simple: you can sell (and therefore receive) more value to a trade partner if you complete a trade in June rather than the end of July. The team acquiring a pitcher like Matt Garza will get an extra 5 or 6 starts with his new club. Five or six quality starts could mean the difference between a wild card or a division title. A team acquiring a hitter to fill a need will get an extra 20 games or approximately 80 more at bats.

This is why the Rays have been actively shopping starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco, who is in a similar position as Garza being in the last year of his deal. If a team is looking for a "rent a pitcher," the first one to go to the team in need will have the best chance to play two or more teams off each other.

But the trade market may be soft this year. Teams have been concentrating more on the signing draft choices by the July 12th deadline and the international signing period which starts July 2nd than constructing mid-season trades. Even if a major league team needs a veteran, most teams now guard their top ten prospects as valuable assets.

PADRE GARZA?

MLBTR cites a report by baseball writer Peter Gammons that the Padres may be interested in Cub starter Matt Garza. The rumor has the credibility because Gammons is reporting it. But it really does not make too much sense for San Diego.

The Padres are a small market team. It rarely goes for big contract free agents. Garza is in the last year of his contract. Unless the Padres think they can extend Garza with a favorable long term deal, San Diego is no position to rent a starter for half a season.

The Padres are one game over .500 for the season, but in second place in the odd NL West. The defending champion Giants and the better than expected Diamondbacks are clear favorites to separate from the pack. The Padres are not the type of team to mortgage the future for a one year shot at a division title.

The Padres have a current $65 million payroll. It is doubtful that they would want to add a top line $15 million per year starter in the mix with Garza. The current rotation is filled with ex-Chicago arms: Jason Marquis (9-2), Andrew Cashner (5-3), Clayton Richard (2-5) join Eric Stults (6-5) and Edinson Volquez (5-6). So, yes, the Padres are in the market to upgrade their rotation, but so is every other team still in contention. But the Padres would probably prefer to add a starter pitcher under their control for a few years (like the Rizzo for Cashner deal).

Gammons thinks the deal is Garza for Class AA outfielder Reymond Fuentes and two minor leaguers that Cubs GM Jed Hoyer drafted when he was with San Diego. Fuentes, 22, had a down year in 2012 at Class AA: .218 BA, 4 HR and 34 RBI. He has had a comeback 2013: .332 BA, 5 HR, 26 RBI. Fuentes is not on the Padres 40 man roster, or listed on the team's Top 20 prospects. A scouting report indicates that Fuentes is not an elite prospect.  Fuentes thin frame is like his famous cousin,  Carlos Beltran. Fuentes is a superior defender who makes great reads and uses his plus plus speed to reach even the deepest outfield gaps but has a weak throwing arm.  Fuentes has compact line-drive swing but  lacks power.

A deal to trade Garza makes sense for the Cubs who have little interest in keeping Garza after this season. Fuentes would add another outfielder to the system (who should be in Iowa/AAA for 2014) who may progress faster than Jorge Soler who is at Class A. But Fuentes projects to be a fifth outfielder/defensive replacement player.

HOUSE OF CARDS

Matt Garza came into camp healthy. So he said. So the media reported on his off-season rehab.

Garza threw to live batters for the first time since July, 2012. From most observers, he looked good. But then he was taken off the mound by the trainer. It appears he pulled a lat muscle in his side. It does not seem serious by initial reports.

But it is a set-back. We were under the impression that Garza would be back at full ready this spring. Even if the elbow issue had resolved, it did not mean that Garza's overall strength and mechanics were in good order.

No matter the hopeful prose from the Cubs PR department of a .500 season, a much improved off season acquisition spending spree, or fan anticipation, the Cubs roster is a house of cards. The bolstering of the pitching staff is suspect: Baker was signed post-Tommy John surgery; Garza was coming back from elbow issue; Feldman was demoted by the Rangers, Carlos Villanuena by the Blue Jays;  and Edwin Jackson has been inconsistent even with championship caliber teams.

There are no AAA understudies in the wings to fill in holes in the rotation, third base, second base, catcher or bullpen duty this year. The Cubs have mortgaged the future on Class A prospects who will be slow to develop under the new systematic plan of one year advances per level. The best prospects will be at Class AA Kane County this summer. That means hope is still three years away.

If Garza is unable to make the opening day roster, the rotation starts to crumble. Samardzija becomes the opening day starter by default, followed by Jackson, Feldman, T. Wood and Villanueva.

Another weak position continues to be third base. If Ian Stewart cannot bat more than .200 and keep healthy, then Luis Valbuena's .210 stick is the only current third sad sack option.

The outfield would collapse if Soriano gets hurt. He is the one consistent power hitter run generator in the lineup. If Sori goes on the DL, Scott Hairston is his full time replacement. Which means the right field platoon of journeymen would make Nick Schierholtz a full time player for the first time in his career.

But the Cubs cobbled this roster together for a reason. This is another short term place holder team until the Epstein-Hoyer picks come of age in three years.

READING THE TEA LEAVES

There is little news coming from the Cubs as the season winds to an end.

But there are little tidbits and rumors that begin to create a bigger picture.

First, the shutdown of Jeff Samardzija was interesting. The reason was that this was the most innings he had pitched since 2008. A starter to reliever and now a converted starter is a different mind set for a pitcher, a different routine. Since the Cubs have been out of the race since May, there really was no reason for the Cubs to even start Samardzija this weekend. But they did. And he went out and threw his best game of the year: a complete game victory over the Pirates.

Afterward, the Cubs web site writer reports that Samardzija is slated to be the #1 or #2 starter in the rotation in 2013.  That is good news for Samardzija, but a question mark for the rest of the staff.

Then, there is a rumor that after six weeks of rest, Matt Garza is still not throwing a baseball. The implication is that his elbow injury is much worse than we were led to believe in July. An injured Garza equates to zero trade value so one would expect he would return to the Cubs for 2013. But if he needs to have surgery, Garza may not even be in the picture for most of 2013. Either scenario is bad news for the Cubs.

Another piece of news was that the Cubs continue to purge old management employees.
The Cubs have dismissed six members of the Minor League coaching staff, including Dave Bialas, who has been with the organization for 18 years, most recently as Triple-A Iowa's manager. Bialas was the Cubs' Minor League field coordinator for 10 seasons before returning to managing this past season for the first time since 2001.

Also gone are Class A Daytona pitching coach Marty Mason, Class A Peoria manager Casey Kopitzke and hitting coach Barbaro Garbey, and Mesa Rookie League pitching coach Frank Castillo and hitting coach Jason Dubois. Kopitzke is headed to Marquette University to enroll in its sports law program. Castillo and Dubois both played for the Cubs. Garbey was in his third season with the Chiefs and seventh in the Cubs organization. Kopitzke was in his fourth season as a Minor League manager in the Cubs' system.

It means that Epstein and Hoyer are on a drive to replace all the old Hendry-Tribune baseball employees with their own people. It is consolidation of power and loyalty. It is also a move to insulate the baseball side from the Tribune dominated business side run by Crane Kenney. It foretells a power struggle.

It also may be an indictment of the minor league system which continues to lack the development of skilled major league players. Catcher Steve Clevenger's antics in the Nationals series sums up the point: throwing at Bryce Harper because the Nationals were continuing to play hard in the 5th inning up 5 runs is no excuse to throw at a batter. Clevenger claims he was sticking up for his team. But it was a boneheaded move and instigated another on field scrum. Clevenger was suspended one game by the league.  The result may be he will lose his job, because the new front office has brought in former A's catcher Antony Recker, another career minor leaguer who has some power numbers in AAA. Recker is not a long term solution at catcher, but he is another AAA guy filling a roster spot in the short term.

Epstein and Hoyer are looking to fill the system with "their" guys. While it is normal to blame the previous administration for the inability to develop talent, the move to consolidate all aspects of the operation will lead to full accountability on Epstein in the near future. The question is whether the Cubs can hold on long enough for his talent to reach the majors.

The Cubs drafted many pitchers in June, but none will be ready for at least 2 years. This puts the weakness of the Cubs current minor league system in the spotlight. Here are the last of the Hendry era starters vying for a rotation spot next season: Rusin, Raley, and Coleman. None have impressed. Further, Epstein's pitchers on the 40 man roster for next season are not much better: Brigham, Castillo, Concepcion, Germano, Socolovich, or Volstad. Vizcaino is on the 60 day DL for arm surgery and his prognosis for 2013 is unknown.

In the best case situation, the 2013 Cubs rotation is Garza, Samardzija, Vizcaino, T. Wood and Germano. In the worst case it is Samardzija, T. Wood, Germano, Volstad and Rusin.

The other tidbit last week was the promotional special featuring Jorge Soler, the Cubs $30 million Cuba exile outfielder who just finished up in short stint in Class A. A thirty minute special on a Cubs prospect is early propaganda to try to keep some level of nominal interest in the Cubs as the season ticket renewals are mailed to fans. But even if the Cubs try to fast track their new signees like Soler and Almora, they will start at best in AA next season. And if there is that arbitrary 500 AAA at bats promotion milestone, they will not be able to reach Wrigley until mid 2014. If Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters continue to struggle under .200 BA, the move to promote may become acute if projected season ticket sales drop 25 percent this off season.

GARZA FALLOUT

When the old Cubs acquired Matt Garza for five prospects, at the time some analysts believed that was a steep price to pay for a starting pitcher. The Rays were the beneficiary of the trade, with three of the five prospects reaching the majors, including reserve outfield defensive speedster Sam Fuld.

The Rays had excess starting pitching and did not want to pay Garza $9 million in arbitrated salary. So the Cubs, still believing they could compete, made the deal.  Garza's career in Chicago has been average at best. As a Cub, Garza is 15-17. In 2011, his ERA was 3.32 in 31 starts. In 2012, it was 3.91 in 18 starts. His combined WHIP is around 1.211. So maybe he has been an above average starter on an underperforming team.

But most observers don't perceive Garza as the ace of any staff, like they do with Halladay, Verlander or Kershaw.

The Cubs really wanted to exchange Garza's talents for a boatload of prospects at the trading deadline. Garza's value would never be higher, since a contender could have him for this year and all of next year (after arbitration). It was unlikely that the Cubs would have gotten 5 prospects in return, but at least three quality players. 

But no trade happened because Garza got hurt. First it was reported as a tricep injury. Then fluid in the arm. Then he took some personal time for the birth of his child. The Cubs said he would make a start just before the trade deadline, but that did not come to pass. Now, the word is Garza is on the DL with a "stress reaction," which is just short of a stress fracture in his elbow at the triceps. Blake Parker has a similar injury, and he has been out since June 1st. So that means Garza is done for 2012. That means Garza will not competitively pitch until spring training 2013. That means he won't be traded this off-season. That means his trade value is falling to near zero.

Timing is everything, especially in baseball. If the Cubs, knowing that the team was going to be in the bottom all season, should have tried to deal Garza in June, not July. But they held on to him to juice up the bidding near the deadline. But that strategy backfired.

The diplomatic word from Clark and Addison is that the front office is happy to have Garza in the rotation in 2013.  They have no choice in the matter. Garza will probably get a good raise in his final year of arbitration to $10.5 to $11.25 million, numbers that can't make the business side of the Cubs happy since it has been all about cutting payroll for 2013.

The fallout of this saga is that the Cubs are stuck with a starting pitcher that does not fit into their plans (rebuilding) or their budget for 2013, and may be difficult to trade because of his injury history.

GARZA, DEMPSTER TO STAY

The Cubs appear to be falling face on their collective face.

First, it was the Dempster to Atlanta trade that fell a part because Dempster felt "blindsided" by the news of it. If Dempster did not give the Cubs any preferences, then shame on management for not discussing the prospect of trading him. But if Dempster did give an indication he'd go to Atlanta, then shame on him for pulling out at the last moment. For if Dempster wants to stay a Cub, all he has to do is say "I am not waiving my 10-5 rights." Then the Cubs don't have to waste time trying to deal him for prospects.

The Dempster saga was clearly a distraction and a PR disaster.

Second, Garza gets hurt in his last start. It was initially stated maybe an elbow or arm cramps, but turns out to be a triceps injury of unknown severity. However, Garza will miss his next start (his last one before the trade deadline). No team will trade for an injured starting pitcher at the trade deadline. Garza will stay a Cub for the rest of the season.  There is little chance that Garza will clear waivers after August 1st to make an in-season move with so many other teams vying for the second wild card spot.

So the Cubs will have Dempster and Garza on the roster to the end of the season. Then, another problem occurs which should make management nervous. The whole point of trading Garza and Dempster was to bring back high level and major league ready prospects in return to quicken the rebuilding process. Dempster is a free agent at season's end. In order to get a compensatory draft pick, the Cubs would have to give Dempster a "qualifying offer" of around $12.5 million (which is a $1.5 million pay cut). Maybe the Cubs think Dempster will reject the offer and file for free agency. However, since Dempster and his family are now a fixtures in Chicago, it is highly probable that Dempster could accept the offer and be a Cub in 2014. That would set back rebuilding even further.

Garza could head to his last year of arbitration. He is likely going to make the same as Dempster's offer, $12.5 million (an approximate $2.75 million raise). The Cubs may not think Garza is truly a #1 starter since they have been trying to trade him this year. The Cubs don't want to pay a large extension contract for a pitcher on a ball club that will not be ready to compete until 2015. Ricketts has to be counting the days when his payroll is cut to under $100 million. But if Dempster and Garza both stay, then the payroll relief does not happen.

So the rebuilding process stalls in neutral for another year.

GARZA AUDITION

It was almost painful to watch as it probably was to scout. Matt Garza struggled in the first inning against the Braves last night. But it did show the stark difference between two clubs: one rebuilding but trying to win and the other a professional contender in the midst of a pennant race.


Garza threw 44 pitches in the first inning. In this era of pitch counts, Garza had used up almost half of his bullets in one prolonged inning, giving up four runs in the process. What really did Garza in was the  "quality at bats" by the Braves hitters, who kept fouling off pitches and running the pitch count high at bat after at bat. Juan Francisco had an epic 15 pitch at-bat. He followed that up in the fourth inning with a 12-pitch at-bat. In this era of pitch counts, a team that can make the starter throw more pitches early will knock him out quicker. And that is what happened last night; Garza lasted only 4 innings, with Garza served up three home runs in a 7-3 loss


It is the second marginal outing in a row for Garza. He trade value may be slipping as teams will look toward bigger names in the trade market, like Cole Hamels of Zach Greinke, if they come on the market. Garza's All-Star break numbers are not stellar with a 4-7 record and 4.32 ERA.


Garza was frustrated by his performance, but his manager did not help his cause or trade value.


The Tribune asked Garza about his performance.


"Pretty crappy," he said. "I started out great, got sick, and then it just went to a crap show from there. I pride myself on what I do, and I'm not too happy with the way I ended this half."

"Francisco killed the whole outing really," manager Dale Sveum said, adding Garza has fallen into a pattern of getting two strikes and not being able to put batters away.

Quality starting pitchers know how to "put batters away." Sveum basically said his starter is ineffective in putting batters away, especially when ahead in the count. This pattern will affect the trade value placed on Garza by other teams. Teams don't do "change of scenery" trades during a pennant chase; teams want quality pitchers to fill an immediate need to produce wins.

So far, Garza has not shown he can produce wins.