June 1, 2012

DRAFT WEEKEND

The  Amateur Baseball Draft begins June 4. This is the time of great speculation as teams select college and high school players under the new restrictions of the collective bargaining agreement. You will continue to hear that drafting players is a crap shoot; that most teams rely upon selecting "the best available player" on your board no matter what needs the team has down the road.


Opinions vary as the number of stars in the sky, a sampling of prospect rankings are as follows:



RANK
BA 500
draftsite
sb nation
mymlbdraft
draftinsider
minorleague
walker
6
Correa SS HS
Zunilo C Fla
Almora OF HS
Correa SS HS
Appel RHP Stanford
Fried LHP HS
Almora OF HS
43
Kelly 3B/P HS
Weickel RHP HS
Rahier SS HS
Weickel RHP HS
Gueller OF HS


56
Avis RHP HS
Haniger OF CalPoly
Nay 3B HS
Avis RHP HS



66
Bean C HS
Winston RHP HS
Walker 1B/OF Jackvlle




97
Renda 2B Cal
Butler RHP Radford
Traver RHP HS





The Cubs have Picks 6, 43, 56, 66 and 97.  As such, only two other teams have more picks (1) in the Top 100 than the Cubs. With four picks in the Top 100, the Cubs should be able to re-stock their system quickly with quality players. However, that pre-supposes that the Cubs do not over reach with their selections.

After reviewing the draft blogs and baseball experts views, the consensus appears to be that the following players are the best in this relatively weak draft class:

Bryon Buxton, OF, HS
Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
Kevin Gauseman , RHP, LSU
Richie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson
Carlos Correa, SS, HS
Albert Almora, OF, HS
Kyle Zimmer, RHP, San Francisco
Max Fried, LHP, HS
Lucas Giolito, RHP, HS

Any of those selections by the Cubs at # 6 would not raise any issues. Local media reports indicate that the Cubs have worked out Fried and Correa.

The issue the Cub fans may have is drafting high school players means more time in the minors to develop and reach the major league team. Cub fans patience is wearing very thin. Cub fans expect a championship caliber team now (as Tom Ricketts has now promised since he purchased the team). But the chart indicates that the draft will be mostly high school players (which adds to the hit-or-miss venerability of the process).

If we digest the chart above as to the Best available player at #6, it is pretty evenly split between Correa, Almora and a pitcher (Appel, Fried). Most experts believe that the college pitchers,  Appel, Gauseman and Zimmer will be gone before the Cubs select. However, if one of them drops to the Cubs, he would be the most "ready" prospect to help the major league club and should be taken by Epstein and Hoyer. The other possible drop to six is Florida catcher Mike Zunilo. The Cubs are pretty well stocked with major league ready catchers to select another one at #6.

If you look at critical needs for the Cubs now and in the future, the draft should concentrate on pitchers with immediate promotion, third base, second base, more pitching depth and later infield, outfield and catching prospects. 

If the mock boards are any indication of the future, the Cubs could be drafting:

6. Correa, SS, who would probably start in A ball, with Baez in AA and Lake in AAA next year. Correa would be effectively blocked up the ladder including with Castro at the major league level.

43. Weickel, RHP, HS, who would also start his career in A ball with a three year window to AAA.

56. Avis, RHP, HS, who would be in tandem with Weickel on a three or four year plan.

It would be a hard sell to tell fans to wait until 2016 to see if the Cubs got this year's talent evaluation correct.