Anthony Rizzo makes his Cubs debut tonight against the Mets. Rizzo, the centerpiece in an off-season trade to build the farm system under new management, is the latest "can't miss" prospect to wear the Cubs uniform (remember, Felix Pie and Corey Patterson). Some moderate observers wondered at the time of the trade whether if Rizzo was such a great prospect, did the Padres trade him away in order to get the Reds top first base prospect in the Latos deal?
Rizzo only had a short taste of the majors in San Diego. He did not do well. The expectation balloon burst on that short trip to the Bigs. In 49 games, he hit only .141, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .281 OBP.
But Rizzo has nothing more to prove in the minors.
At Iowa, his numbers were giant: .342 BA, .405 OBP, 23 HR, 62 RBI in 70 games.
In his 6 minor league seasons (445 GP), he has a career .303 BA, 87 HR, 343 RBI, 23 SB, .372 OBP and fielding percentage of .989.
In an unscientific newspaper poll, the expectations for Rizzo's major league career broke down as follows:
43% believed he would have an All-Star type career
42% believed he would be a decent major league ball players
8% believed that he would have a Hall of Fame career
7% thought he would be a bust.
Optimists project that Rizzo in a full major league season could hit .297 24 HR, 97 RBI 6 SB.
That would be a very good offensive player. But if he cannot adjust to major league pitching like in his San Diego experience, realistic projections would be tempered by 15 to 50 percent.
With the Cubs on a record pace for losses in a season, the idea of promoting Rizzo to be The Franchise, the cornerstone of the Epstein team of the future is a huge burden to place on a 22 year old. His presence in the line up is not going to lift the team into competing for the NL Central title this year. All it does is give season ticket holders "hope" for the future and a reason to show up at Wrigley and spend money to fill Ricketts coffers.
