History has taught that selecting high school players are a greater risk because you have more development of 18 year olds than college players who have played against better competition. High school players are riskier propositions, but may have more upside potential than some college seniors.
As some observers keenly put it: the draft is a crap shoot.
The first round:
1. Astros: Carlos Correa, ss
2. Twins: Byron Buxton, of
3. Mariners: Mike Zunino, c
4. Orioles: Kevin Gausman, rhp
5. Royals: Kyle Zimmer, rhp
6. Cubs: Albert Almora, of
7. Padres: Max Fried, lhp
8. Pirates: Mark Appel, rhp
9. Marlins: Andrew Heaney, lhp
10. Rockies: David Dahl, of
11. Athletics: Addison Russell, ss
12. Mets: Gavin Cecchini, ss
13. White Sox: Courtney Hawkins, of
14. Reds: Nick Travieso, rhp
15. Indians: Tyler Naquin, of
16. Nationals: Lucas Giolito, rhp
17. Blue Jays: D.J. Davis, of
18. Dodgers: Corey Seager, 3b
19. Cardinals: Michael Wacha, rhp
20. Giants: Chris Stratton, rhp
21. Braves: Lucas Sims, rhp
22. Blue Jays: Marcus Stroman, rhp
23. Cardinals: James Ramsey, of
24. Red Sox: Deven Marrero, ss
25. Rays: Richie Shaffer, 3b
26. Diamondbacks: Stryker Trahan, c/of
27. Brewers: Clint Coulter, c
28. Brewers: Victor Roache, of
29. Rangers: Lewis Brinson, of
30. Yankees: Ty Hensley, rhp
31. Red Sox: Brian Johnson, lhp
The first surprise is the Astros taking Correa, a shortstop that worked out for the Cubs last week. Word on the street was that the Astros would pick the best pitcher available, Mark Appel. But Appel has signability questions because his agent is Scott Boras. Which makes the Pirates selection of Appel at No. 8 a curious decision, since under the slotting caps, the Pirates would be offering Appel almost $3.5 million less than being a No. 1 pick.
Various news reports have Appel not happy with how things worked out; he did not talk to Pittsburgh writers after his selection. Besides Appel sliding down the board, RHP Giolito going at No. 16 was a mild surprise (he has had arm injuries) and 3B Shaffer falling to No. 25.
Both the Cubs and the White Sox took "safe" picks from a scouting standpoint.
But none of these selections are going to help the teams in the short term. None have "fast track" ability like the Nationals have done with Strasburg and Harper.
The North Siders touted their pick in their press release:
The Chicago Cubs tonight selected Albert Almora of Mater Academy Charter School with the sixth overall pick in the 2012 First-Year Player Draft. Almora, 18, is a six-foot-two, 180-pound outfielder from Hialeah Gardens, Fla.
Almora hit .603 with 13 doubles, five triples, six home runs, 34 RBI and 24 stolen bases with a 1.164 slugging percentage and .667 on-base percentage in 25 games for Mater Academy last season.
The South Siders toasted their first pick, Texas High School player Courtney Hawkins, in their release:
Hawkins is batting .437 with 11 home runs, 39 RBIs, 56 runs scored, 17 stolen bases, a .580 on-base and .874 slugging percentage in 36 games this season.
Hawkins' Carroll High School remains alive in the Texas 5A State baseball tournament, with Hawkins focused on helping his team win a state title this weekend. The young man also can pitch, carrying a 5-2 record with a 0.96 ERA, 57 strikeouts over 36 1/3 innings and a velocity ranging from 92-96 mph when he pitched Carroll to a regional championship.
Life for Hawkins with the White Sox will be strictly in the outfield, where he is projected as a plus-power corner man, and has set lofty goals for current Major Leaguers he would like to emulate.
GM Kenny Williams must not have been happy when Hawkins did a back flip on the MLB network after his selection. There is also a concern on whether he can keep his weight under control. But Hawkins admires the career of Frank Thomas which is a good role model for a Sox player.
In the supplemental first round, the Cubs had two selections, neither were on the expert mock draft boards:
At No. 43, Pierce Johnson, RHP, Missouri State. The analysis on Johnson is that he has a good fastball and breaking ball, but "has difficulty staying healthy." Major league track: 2014.
At No. 56, Paul Blackburn, RHP from Oakley, CA high school. He has a low 90s fastball, and will have to develop two other pitches. Major league track: 2016.
The White Sox had one other pick as well:
At No. 48, Keon Barnum, 1B, Tampa, FL high school. The 6'5" lefty power hitter hit .414 as a senior and .479 as a junior. Baseball America called this selection one of the three surprise "reaches" on day one of the Draft. Major league track: 2016.
