June 19, 2012

TRADE WATCH

The temperature in Chicago will remain in the mid 90s all week. That means a blast furnace of hot stove speculation is beginning for current Cub players.

The most tradable Cub, Ryan Dempster, is now on the disabled list with a lat muscle issue. It is unclear the nature or extent of the problem. Dempster said he has played through the pain before, but the team decided to rest him on the DL to preserve whatever trade value he has to the rebuilding process.  A disabled player or one with an injury question will dramatically decrease the value in trade talks.  Dempster will have to return from the DL and return to his excellent form in order to get any trade offers.

The complexity of trading Dempster is that he has full trade veto rights. If the Cubs want to trade Dempster, the team needs his permission. So Dempster will control where he winds up. In addition, Dempster is playing for another contract. His current deal expires at the end of this season. He is a "rent a player" for the rest of the year, or he may want an extension from his new team in order to complete a deal.

The Cubs have been showcasing Soriano to anyone with a set of eyeballs.  The Cubs have made it clear that they will pick up a substantial amount of Soriano's remaining contract in order to cut a deal. Soriano is resigned to the fate of a possible trade, but wants to go to a contender. But most contenders already have a full outfield (and DH in the AL). Most contenders are looking for adding bench strength, bullpen help or temporary replacements until regulars get off the disabled list. Soriano really does not fit into those need categories. And even if the Cubs eat 95% of Soriano's contract, they may get nothing in return.

In the rumor mills, the Dodgers were interested in Dempster before his DL. It was reported that the Indians were scouting Soriano. The Indians find themselves in the hunt in the AL Central race, and need a power hitter to fill out their line up. The Dodgers are trying to make a statement under new ownership, and bringing in a front line pitcher would be a coup.

Matt Garza appears to be the new front line trade piece since Dempster is now on the DL. Several teams have indicated interest in Garza (Yankees, Tigers).  Since being with the Cubs, Garza has been inconsistent in his starts. He has had good outings, followed by bad outings. But he has a track record of winning in the AL East, which is probably where he would wind up.  Garza also has contract issues to deal with; he is arbitration eligible but wants to have a long term, guaranteed deal. That may turn off some teams. But some teams desperate for a starter at the trade deadline will pay the price for Garza.

Today, Ken Rosenthal writes that several teams have inquired about Darwin Barney. This is a little surprising, considering that Barney would really project as a bench player on a contender. But as we have said before, contenders are usually looking for scrappy utility players to upgrade their benches around trade time. These are not high profile, high value deals. If Barney is dealt, the Cubs will fill his position with one of Hoyer's AAA waiver claims that have been going back and forth from Iowa the last month.

When the Dodgers were scouting Dempster, the local press determined that LA was not interested in Bryan LaHair. LaHair was on the block because it is clear that the Cubs' future, Anthony Rizzo, would be called up soon to play first base. That would leave LaHair without a position.  However, last night in a bold move in high winds on the South Side, manager Sveum put LaHair out in RF. The gamble paid off with a good first inning defensive play and a solid night at the plate (with a HR). So if LaHair can play RF, the need to trade him lessens.  However, if he can play RF and 1B, some rival teams may consider him more valuable. The question for management is whether LaHair is a better long term solution in RF than David DeJesus (who played CF last night). It is a classic trade off of more offensive potential or less defensive tools with LaHair over DeJesus.