Any player draft is a crap shoot. High school prospects are a greater risk because of the talent level is less overall than at the college ranks. High school players often viewed as higher ceilings and college players higher floors. High school and undergrads have some leverage in negotiating their signing bonuses because they can still remain in school. College seniors have no real leverage, and come cheaper (usually at a 30% discount) because if they want to continue playing ball, they have to sign.
Of all the selections on the first two days of the draft, only 10% will have quality major league careers. A good organization hopes to bump up that success rate to 15%. So, of the Cub selections, one or two will probably be contributing major leaguers. Overall, the Cub draft was not the best, but not the worst but it did have some puzzling high selections of pitchers with current arm injuries and the large number of high school selections for a team in a quick rebuild mode.
Albert Almora with their first-round selection in Monday's draft. The Florida high school outfielder has the Team USA experience and scouts like how he projects into major league tools. However, he has a full college scholarship and an agent who may want the Cubs to overspend to sign him. As being the first selection by Epstein as Cub boss, you would expect that the organization wants to vindicate itself with its talent evaluation process to sign and promote Almora quickly through the system.
In the compensation round, the Cubs selected right-hander Pierce Johnson out of Missouri State (43rd overall) and grabbed right-hander Paul Blackburn out of Heritage High School in California (56th overall).
Johnson, a 6-foot-3, 175-pound righty, recently completed his senior season at Missouri State. He was ranked the No. 38 overall prospect by MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo after going 4-6 with a 2.53 ERA in 14 starts this season.
The 22-year-old right-hander had been rising on many Draft boards earlier this year, but suffered a forearm strain in April. He closed the year by posting a 2.36 ERA and striking out 55 in 53 1/3 innings. He also threw three complete games (one shutout) and struck out a single-season school record 119 in 99 2/3 innings.
Johnson has two plus-pitches: a fastball that touches 94 mph and a hard curveball. He profiles as a No. 3-type Major League starter and has drawn comparisons to Nationals closer Drew Storen.
Blackburn is a 6-foot-2, 185-pound right-hander out of Heritage (Calif.) High School who is committed to Arizona State. He boasts a fastball that regularly hits 92 mph with the ability to go a bit higher, and also features a curve and changeup that show potential to grow.
The 18-year-old went 8-3 with a 1.27 ERA this season, striking out 84 in 77 1/3 innings, and posted a 1.50 ERA the past two years. He was ranked the No. 69 overall prospect, according to Mayo.
The Cubs selected pitchers in the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, eighth, 10th, 12th and 14th rounds on Tuesday. They also used two of their three selections on pitchers on Monday.
The Cubs drafted Pope High School (Ga.) right-handed pitcher Duane Underwood in the second round at No. 67 overall. Underwood, who is 6-2 and 205 pounds, is signed with Georgia.
Nipomo High School (Calif.) right-handed pitcher Ryan McNeil, who is 6-3 and 210 pounds, was taken in the third round. McNeil is signed with Long Beach State.
Coastal Carolina junior right-handed pitcher Josh Conway, who is 6-1, 175 pound, was selected in the fourth round. Conway had Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in May. He was 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in nine starts this season. He allowed 43 hits, 13 earned runs, 18 walks and struck out 50 hitters in 54 2/3 innings.
Americas High School (Texas) left-handed pitcher Anthony Prieto, who is 5-11, 170 pounds, was drafted in the fifth round.
GateWay junior college right-handed pitcher Trey Lang, who is 6-3 and 225 pounds, was taken in the sixth round. He was 2-2 with five saves and a 0.87 ERA in 50 appearances this season. He allowed 16 hits, three earned runs, 14 walks and struck out 31 hitters in 31 innings.
Virginia redshirt sophomore third baseman Stephen Bruno was taken in the seventh round. Bruno, who is 5-9 and 175 pounds, led Virginia with a .370 average and 88 hits this season. He also had 49 runs, 23 doubles, two triples, six home runs, 54 RBIs, 11 stolen bases and a .424 on-base percentage. He missed a majority of the 2011 season with a hamstring injury.
South Carolina Beaufort senior left-handed pitcher Michael Heesch was drafted in the eighth round. Heesch, who is 6-5, played two years at UIC and attended Prairie Ridge High School in Crystal Lake, Ill. He was 9-3 with a 2.21 ERA in 18 starts this season. He allowed 115 hits, 30 earned runs, 13 walks and struck out 118 batters in 122 1/3 innings. He pitched nine innings in six starts this season.
California senior catcher Chadd Krist was selected in the ninth round. Krist, who is 5-11 and 190 pounds, hit .294 with 29 runs, 65 hits, 19 doubles, four home runs, 36 RBIs, a .436 slugging percentage and a .325 on-base percentage this season. He threw out seven of 38 runners attempting to steal.
Indiana senior right-handed pitcher Chad Martin was drafted in the 10th round. Martin, who is 6-7 and 230 pounds, was 2-3 with a 4.79 ERA in 19 games, which included nine starts, with the Hoosiers this season. He allowed 80 hits, 36 earned runs, 27 walks and struck out 47 hitters in 67 2/3 innings.
Mundy’s Mill High School (Ga.) center fielder Rashad Crawford, who is 6-3 and 185 pounds, was taken in the 11th round. He is signed with Savannah State.
Louisville junior redshirt right-handed pitcher Justin Amlung was drafted in the 12th round. Amlung, who is 6-1 and 180 pounds, was 9-4 with a 2.31 ERA in 16 starts this season. He allowed 83 hits, 28 earned runs, 26 walks and struck out 105 hitters in 109 innings.
Orange Coast junior college outfielder Bijan Rademacher was selected in the 13th round. Rademacher, who is 6-0 and 200 pounds, had a .349 average with 31 runs, 51 hits, seven doubles, three triples, seven home runs, 49 RBIs, a .426 on-base percentage and a .582 slugging percentage this season.
St. Petersburg junior college right-handed pitcher Corbin Hoffner was drafted in the 14th round. Hoffner, who is 6-5 and 235 pounds, was 5-5 with a 2.52 ERA in 14 games this season. He allowed 60 hits, 20 earned runs, 16 walks and struck out 73 hitters in 71 1/3 innings.
Nevada junior catcher Carlos Escobar Jr. was selected in the 15th round. Escobar, who is 6-2 and 185 pounds, hit .283 with 28 runs, 14 doubles, a triple, four home runs and 38 RBIs this season. He was drafted in the 41st round by the Houston Astros in 2009.
Based upon the tenor of the reactions from Almora's camp, Almora may be a difficult signing as he favors playing for the University of Miami in the fall. Even if Almora joins the Cubs, he would begin his career in Class A with a projected development time of four years. It would appear from the other selections, that at best, maybe Lang will arrive in the majors first as a bullpen reliever. Bruno will probably become the No. 2 third baseman in the minors (after Vitters) by default. Heesch may compete for a No. 5 starter role in 2014.
Based upon the tenor of the reactions from Almora's camp, Almora may be a difficult signing as he favors playing for the University of Miami in the fall. Even if Almora joins the Cubs, he would begin his career in Class A with a projected development time of four years. It would appear from the other selections, that at best, maybe Lang will arrive in the majors first as a bullpen reliever. Bruno will probably become the No. 2 third baseman in the minors (after Vitters) by default. Heesch may compete for a No. 5 starter role in 2014.
