The Cubs won the bidding for Cuban defector Jorge Soler.
This is a pure "scouting" pick as it has been impossible to determine what sort of "real" stats Soler has on his resume. As a Cuban junior national player in 2010, he defected in 2011 and has been in baseball limbo until MLB determined that he could sign with a major league team.
At 6'3", 200 pounds, scouting reports think he will grow into a major league power hitting right fielder. Some scouts use the dreaded "five tool player" label (Cub fans for decades have been promised five tool phenoms like Felix Pie and Corey Patterson). Since most commentators have not seen any live action or tape on Soler, it is hard to tell whether this is more a "reputation" signing or a shot in the dark.
In the new economies of baseball, there is a hard International salary-bonus cap that kicks in on July 1, 2012. Teams can no longer spend freely on international players. Teams are only allowed to spend a total of $2.9 million per year on international players. This artificial cap is designed proponents say to keep the leagues in competitive balance. In other words, save owners from burning through their own money recklessly. Soler was allegedly the last free agent "prize" before the new cap hits.
Several reports state that Soler signed a 9 year, $30 million deal with the Cubs. It would be the longest contract in Cub history (Soriano's was 8 years, $136 million). Keith Law of ESPN writes that his sources tell him that Soler has a right to "opt out" of the deal during his arbitration years (i.e. make more money if he is performing well). If that is true, why guarantee Soler a $30 million pay day if he will go to arbitration anyway? This averages to a $3.3 million per year deal. That is veteran, proven outfielder money.
Is the contract front loaded (agent preferred) or back loaded (team preferred)? But the $30 million figure is at least 33% more than most teams estimated Soler would sign for; three other teams alleged bid in the low $20 million range. Is Soler that much better than the other Cuban defector, pitcher Concepcion, the Cubs signed for $7 million? Only time will tell.
Most likely, Soler will sign a major league contract (which means he must be placed on the 40 man roster). As such, his minor league minimum salary is at least $50,000 (and bumps to contract amount if he is on the major league team). Fast tracking him in two years to start in 2014 might to hard; if he is to play three seasons in the minors, the last six years of the deal cover the Cubs through his arbitration years. As a base line, three years in the minors will cost $150,000 and major league minimum in 2014 estimated to be $500,000 for three seasons; then arbitration raises stair step up to one's peers. The normal first 6 years for player development and early service time is $650,000. The Cubs have pegged Soler's cost at $20 million.
The Cubs blueprint appears to change the Tribune free agent bandage spending sprees, to spend most money on developing home grown talent (the Rays, Twins and Marlins model). In 2013, several big contracts come off the books (Zambrano $18 million, Dempster $14 million). The team payroll projects to under $100 million. In drafting 22 pitchers in their 42 draft selections, the organization is hoping for more than 2 will pan out quickly and be part of the staff in 2014.
Here is how Epstein sees his club in 2014:
Sczcur LF B. Jackson CF Soler RF
Vitters 3B Castro SS Cardenas 2B Rizzo 1B
Clevenger C
By implication, Soriano, Stewart, LaHair, Barney and DeJesus are merely caretaker place holders until the rebuilding pieces are ready to occupy Wrigley.
And Soler is the most expensive piece of the Epstein puzzle.
