After messing up the Dempster-Atlanta deal, the Cubs traded left handed starter Paul Maholm and reserve outfielder Reed Johnson and CASH considerations to the Braves for two minor league players, pitchers Jaye Chapman and Arodys Vizcaino. It appears to be an excellent deal for the Braves, who are in a pennant chase with the pitching rich Nationals. The Braves needed to bolster their rotation, and Maholm is a steady, veteran performer.
Maholm has a 3.74 ERA with 6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 49.9% ground ball rate in 120 1/3 innings for the Cubs this year. The 30-year-old has never thrown particularly hard; his average fastball checks in at 87.6 mph this year, according to FanGraphs. He earns a $4.75MM salary in 2012 and his contract includes a $6.5MM club option for 2013. So the Braves control Maholm next season plus the Cubs are paying part of his contract going forward.
Johnson, 35, has a .307/.361/.452 batting line in 180 plate appearances this year. The right-handed hitter has played all three outfield positions for the Cubs and owns a career .313/.370/.469 line against left-handed pitching. He's signed to a one-year, $1.15MM contract and will hit free agency after the season. Johnson is one of those deadline pick up that bolsters a team's bench and gives a manager more options down the September stretch, both pitch hitting and defensive replacement.
So what did the Cubs get back in return? Nothing close to what Dempster trade would have gotten them, quality prospect Randall Delgado. Instead, the Cubs obtained A PITCHER ON THE DISABLED LIST with a major injury.
Vizcaino, who entered the 2012 season ranked by Baseball America as the 40th-best prospect in MLB, had Tommy John surgery this spring. The 21-year-old posted a 3.06 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 97 innings for three Braves affiliates as he made his way through Atlanta's minor league system in 2011. The right-hander reached the Major Leagues last year, posting a 4.67 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 17 relief appearances.
Clearly, the Braves fast tracked Vizcaino through the system to the majors where he had so-so results. A minor league phenom with major surgery is not that comforting or helpful in the near future. The success rate for pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery is good (some pitchers believe their arm is stronger than before), but some do not ever get back to their pre-surgery fastball speeds. Many have to adapt new, more arm friendly pitches, in order to stay on a career course. In normal rehab, it takes 18 months to 2 years until the player is ready to go full bore. So, the trade of Maholm's 18 months left on his contract is for nothing at this point.
Vizcaino, who entered the 2012 season ranked by Baseball America as the 40th-best prospect in MLB, had Tommy John surgery this spring. The 21-year-old posted a 3.06 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 97 innings for three Braves affiliates as he made his way through Atlanta's minor league system in 2011. The right-hander reached the Major Leagues last year, posting a 4.67 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 17 relief appearances.
Clearly, the Braves fast tracked Vizcaino through the system to the majors where he had so-so results. A minor league phenom with major surgery is not that comforting or helpful in the near future. The success rate for pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery is good (some pitchers believe their arm is stronger than before), but some do not ever get back to their pre-surgery fastball speeds. Many have to adapt new, more arm friendly pitches, in order to stay on a career course. In normal rehab, it takes 18 months to 2 years until the player is ready to go full bore. So, the trade of Maholm's 18 months left on his contract is for nothing at this point.
Chapman, a 25-year-old right-hander, has a 3.52 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 in 53 2/3 innings of relief for Atlanta's Triple-A team so far in 2012. He has a career 3.95 ERA and 1.391 WHIP. He has been basically a reliever his entire minor league career. But in 101 games finished, he only has 28 saves. At 25, he appears to be a middle reliever candidate.
Was the Maholm deal a "make up trade" with the Braves for Dempster pulling a reversal no to the teams' earlier trade? The Cubs did not receive very much in return for Maholm and Johnson.
The Cubs also traded Geovany Soto. Soto should have been traded a year ago when he still had rookie of the year type potential on the trade market. But the Cubs kept Soto as the starter. Nagging injuries and bad swing mechanics doomed his value this season.
The Cubs traded Soto to the Rangers for Jacob Brigham, a AA minor league pitcher.
Soto, 29, has a .195/.278/.345 batting line in 194 plate appearances this year. The 2008 NL Rookie of the Year earns $4.3MM in 2012 and is on track to go to arbitration for the third time this offseason. However, the Cubs were going to non-tender him to save money which would have granted Soto free agency a year early. Clearly, the Rangers got Soto as catching insurance in case starter Mike Napoli or backup Yorvit Torrealba go down with injuries.
The Cubs traded Soto to the Rangers for Jacob Brigham, a AA minor league pitcher.
Soto, 29, has a .195/.278/.345 batting line in 194 plate appearances this year. The 2008 NL Rookie of the Year earns $4.3MM in 2012 and is on track to go to arbitration for the third time this offseason. However, the Cubs were going to non-tender him to save money which would have granted Soto free agency a year early. Clearly, the Rangers got Soto as catching insurance in case starter Mike Napoli or backup Yorvit Torrealba go down with injuries.
It was cheap insurance, too. Brigham, a 24-year-old right-hander, had been pitching at Double-A Frisco. He has a 4.28 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 124 innings over the course of 21 starts this year. Brigham is a fringe arm, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America. He has a below average career as a starter the past six years, with a .391 winning percentage and 4.40 ERA and 1.395 WHIP. At 24 and 6 seasons in his career but not out of AA ball yet means Brigham can't really be called a viable major league prospect at this point. After 6 seasons of development, a player should have already made it to AAA (and with some ML service time). But with Soto's weak bat, this was really a salary dump by the Cubs (possibly to off-set some of the money being sent to Atlanta in the Maholm deal).
Overall, the Cubs traded three players on the current major league roster for one prospect with major arm surgery and a borderline journeyman relief pitcher.
The only thing the moves really does is to open up roster spaces. Maholm's spot in the rotation most likely will be filled by Volstad since Randy Wells went on the AAA DL is out for the season (thus ending his Cub career). Johnson's spot on the bench may be filled by a middle infielder like Cardenas. Promoting Brett Jackson to sit on the bench would not be a good move, unless Soriano or DeJesus is dealt. Wellington Castillo will replace Soto and platoon with Clevenger in an extended battle of who will become the starting 2013 catcher.
Overall, the Cubs traded three players on the current major league roster for one prospect with major arm surgery and a borderline journeyman relief pitcher.
The only thing the moves really does is to open up roster spaces. Maholm's spot in the rotation most likely will be filled by Volstad since Randy Wells went on the AAA DL is out for the season (thus ending his Cub career). Johnson's spot on the bench may be filled by a middle infielder like Cardenas. Promoting Brett Jackson to sit on the bench would not be a good move, unless Soriano or DeJesus is dealt. Wellington Castillo will replace Soto and platoon with Clevenger in an extended battle of who will become the starting 2013 catcher.
