July 11, 2012

THE CLOSEST PROSPECTS

Each major league team has a 40-man roster. In theory, the "best" organizational prospects are on the 40 man roster in order to be protected from Rule 5 drafts or easily promoted to the active 25-man team roster.

At the halfway point of the first season of the Epstein-Hoyer era, here are the players on the Cubs 25 man roster who are not currently active on the major league roster:

LHP Jeff Beliveau
RHP Alberto Cabrera
RHP Lendy Castillo (DL)
RHP Casey Coleman
LHP Gerardo Concepcion
RHP Marcos Mateo (DL)
RHP Blake Parker (DL)
RHP Chris Volstad

C Wellington Castillo
C Blake Lalli
INF Adrian Cardenas
SS Junior Lake
3B Ian Stewart (DL)
3B Josh Vitters
OF Dave Sappelt
OF Jorge Soler
OF Matt Szczur

These are the players most likely to be called up as replacement players during the season. Most have some major league experience, while a few are prized prospects who have received generous major league deals.

As for the pitchers, not much help in the short term. Castillo was a Rule 5 pick up who is being hidden on the disabled list to avoid returning him to the Phils. Castillo clearly was not ready to jump from AA to the majors. Beliveau looked good in spring training, but has been quiet this season. He has a few more years to develop. Cabrera has been moved to the minor bullpen and could develop into the Cubs future closer; he has a live fast ball in the high 90s. Coleman and Volstad are both failed starters who service time with the Cubs is numbered. Mateo and Parker are on the DL, and project to be fill in bullpen pieces not major rebuilding components. Concepcion was one of the big international splash signings, but as posted earlier, some scouts think he will be a bust.

As for position players, Castillo has been up and down - - - he may wind up as a back up catcher some day. Lalli appears to be a journeyman minor league catcher. Cardenas lost his utility role to Valbuena, but they seem to be interchangeable bench players. Stewart appears headed to the bust category. Lake is getting a lot of good press as a power hitting shortstop who most likely will move next year to 3B at Iowa (with most likely Vitters finally getting promoted to the big league team in 2013). Sappelt, who was part of the Marshall trade, appears to be blocked by a boatload of Cub outfield prospects. Szczur is another one of these football players returning to baseball - - - he has speed and good defensive skills in CF and most believe he will move up quickly through the system as a possible traditional lead-off hitter. Soler is the big unknown. The Cubs project him to be a big, power hitting corner outfielder. But no one has really seen him play at a competitive level.

You could say that the real Cub prospects are not listed on the 40 man roster yet because they are still at least a year away:  Brett Jackson, Javier Baez, Robert Whitenack, Trey McNutt, Ben Wells, or Reggie Golden. Or, they have just been drafted like Alberto Almora, Duane Underwood or Pierce Johnson.

But the 40 man roster can give one a clue on the strengths and weaknesses of a team. The Cubs clearly need help in pitching, catching, third base and the outfield.